[08.10.30华盛顿邮报 - 卡内基学者撰文] 美国还是老大
Still No. 1 美国学者说：美国还是老大，而且不必以前弱势。» Top 35 Opinion Articles
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By Robert Kagan
Thursday, October 30, 2008; Page A23
Is Barack Obama the candidate of American decline? To hear some of his supporters among the foreign policy punditry, you'd think he was. Francis Fukuyama says he supports Obama because he believes Obama would be better at "managing" American decline than John McCain. Fareed Zakaria writes weekly encomiums to Obama's "realism," by which he means Obama's acquiescence to the "post-American world." Obama, it should be said, has done little to deserve the praise of these declinists. His view of America's future, at least as expressed in this campaign, has been appropriately optimistic, which is why he is doing well in the polls. If he sounded anything like Zakaria and Fukuyama say he does, he'd be out of business by now.
One hopes that whoever wins next week will quickly dismiss all this faddish declinism. It seems to come along every 10 years or so. In the late 1970s, the foreign policy establishment was seized with what Cyrus Vance called "the limits of our power." In the late 1980s, the scholar Paul Kennedy predicted the imminent collapse of American power due to "imperial overstretch." In the late 1990s, Samuel P. Huntington warned of American isolation as the "lonely superpower." Now we have the "post-American world."
Yet the evidence of American decline is weak. Yes, as Zakaria notes, the world's largest Ferris wheel is in Singapore and the largest casino in Macau. But by more serious measures of power, the United States is not in decline, not even relative to other powers. Its share of the global economy last year was about 21 percent, compared with about 23 percent in 1990, 22 percent in 1980 and 24 percent in 1960. Although the United States is suffering through a financial crisis, so is every other major economy. If the past is any guide, the adaptable American economy will be the first to come out of recession and may actually find its position in the global economy enhanced.
Meanwhile, American military power is unmatched. While the Chinese and Russian militaries are both growing, America's is growing, too, and continues to outpace them technologically. Russian and Chinese power is growing relative to their neighbors and their regions, which will pose strategic problems, but that is because American allies, especially in Europe, have systematically neglected their defenses.
America's image is certainly damaged, as measured by global polls, but the practical effects of this are far from clear. Is America's image today worse than it was in the 1960s and early 1970s, with the Vietnam War; the Watts riots; the My Lai massacre; the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy; and Watergate? Does anyone recall that millions of anti-American protesters took to the streets in Europe in those years?
Today, despite the polls, President Bush has managed to restore closer relations with allies in Europe and Asia, and the next president will be able to improve them even further. Realist theorists have consistently predicted for the past two decades that the world would "balance" against the United States. But nations such as India are drawing closer to America, and if any balancing is occurring, it is against China, Russia and Iran.
Sober analysts such as Richard Haass acknowledge that the United States remains "the single most powerful entity in the world." But he warns, "The United States cannot dominate, much less dictate, and expect that others will follow." That is true. But when was it not? Was there ever a time when the United States could dominate, dictate and always have its way?
Many declinists imagine a mythical past when the world danced to America's tune. Nostalgia swells for the wondrous American-dominated era after World War II, but between 1945 and 1965 the United States actually suffered one calamity after another. The "loss" of China to communism; the North Korean invasion of South Korea; the Soviet testing of a hydrogen bomb; the stirrings of postcolonial nationalism in Indochina -- each proved a strategic setback of the first order. And each was beyond America's power to control or even to manage successfully.
No event in the past decade, with the exception of Sept. 11, can match the scale of damage to America's position in the world. Many would say, "But what about Iraq?" Yet even in the Middle East, where America's image has suffered most as a result of that war, there has been no fundamental strategic realignment. Longtime American allies remain allies, and Iraq, which was once an adversary, is now an ally. Contrast this with the strategic setbacks the United States suffered during the Cold War. In the 1950s and 1960s, the pan-Arab nationalist movement swept out pro-American governments and opened the door to unprecedented Soviet involvement, including a quasi-alliance between Moscow and the Egypt of Gamal Abdel Nasser, as well as with Syria. In 1979, the central pillar of American strategy toppled when the pro-American Shah of Iran was overthrown by Ayatollah Khomeini's revolution. That produced a fundamental shift in the strategic balance from which the United States is still suffering. Nothing similar has occurred as a result of the Iraq war.
So perhaps a little perspective is in order. The danger of today's declinism is not that it is true but that the next president will act as if it is. The good news is that I doubt either nominee really will. And I'm confident the American people would take a dim view if he tried.
Robert Kagan, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, writes a monthly column for The Post.
[ 本帖最后由 CC_best 于 2008-11-6 11:27 编辑 ] Still No. 1 美国学者说：美国还是老大，而且不比以前弱势。
即，美国没有衰落。
看看美国人自己怎么说。 翻译。。。。。 Is Barack Obama the candidate of American decline? To hear some of his supporters among the foreign policy punditry, you'd think he was. Francis Fukuyama says he supports Obama because he believes Obama would be better at "managing" American decline than John McCain. Fareed Zakaria writes weekly encomiums to Obama's "realism," by which he means Obama's acquiescence to the "post-American world." Obama, it should be said, has done little to deserve the praise of these declinists. His view of America's future, at least as expressed in this campaign, has been appropriately optimistic, which is why he is doing well in the polls. If he sounded anything like Zakaria and Fukuyama say he does, he'd be out of business by now.
奥巴马是美国衰落时期的总统继任者吗? 听一听外国政策专家中他的一些支持者的言论后，你会觉得他的确就是。弗朗西斯.福山说他支持奥巴马能够比麦凯恩更好的管理衰落中的美国。Fareed Zakaria 每周都赞扬奥巴马的“现实主义”，他的意思是奥巴马对于“后美国时代”的认识和直面。应当说，奥巴马所作所为对于这些衰落论者的言论一点那也不名副其实。他对美国未来的预见，至少在竞选期间的发表的预见，相当合理的乐观。这也是为什么他在竞选中胜出的原因。如果他象福山或Zakaria说的那样，他早就出局了。
One hopes that whoever wins next week will quickly dismiss all this faddish declinism. It seems to come along every 10 years or so. In the late 1970s, the foreign policy establishment was seized with what Cyrus Vance called "the limits of our power." In the late 1980s, the scholar Paul Kennedy predicted the imminent collapse of American power due to "imperial overstretch." In the late 1990s, Samuel P. Huntington warned of American isolation as the "lonely superpower." Now we have the "post-American world."
人民希望下周无论谁胜出都将迅速将衰退的恐慌赶走。而且似乎每十年都会这样。在七十年代后期，外交政策被Cyrus Vance 称之为“我们权力的边界”。到80年代后期，学者保罗肯尼迪预测美国霸权将崩溃，因为势力范围过大。到90年代后期亨廷顿又声称美国的孤立主义将让我们成为“孤独的超级霸权”。现在，又出来这个“后美国时代”。
Yet the evidence of American decline is weak. Yes, as Zakaria notes, the world's largest Ferris wheel is in Singapore and the largest casino in Macau. But by more serious measures of power, the United States is not in decline, not even relative to other powers. Its share of the global economy last year was about 21 percent, compared with about 23 percent in 1990, 22 percent in 1980 and 24 percent in 1960.
然而美国衰落的证据却是很薄弱。是的，就像Zakaria说的，世界最大的摩天轮在新加坡，世界最大的赌场在澳门。然而，当我们讨论更为实质的力量时，美国并没有衰落，甚至与其他强国相比也没有相对衰落。去年他在世界经济的份额占21%，1990年23%， 1980年22%，1960年24%。
Although the United States is suffering through a financial crisis, so is every other major economy. If the past is any guide, the adaptable American economy will be the first to come out of recession and may actually find its position in the global economy enhanced.
尽管美国经受着金融危机，其他主要经济体也一样。如果以史为鉴，更新过的美国经济将第一个从衰退中恢复，而且在世界经济的地位还会增强。
Meanwhile, American military power is unmatched. While the Chinese and Russian militaries are both growing, America's is growing, too, and continues to outpace them technologically. Russian and Chinese power is growing relative to their neighbors and their regions, which will pose strategic problems, but that is because American allies, especially in Europe, have systematically neglected their defenses.
同时，美国的军事实力也是无可匹敌的。当中国和俄罗斯军事力量增强的同时，美国也在增长而且还继续高于他们的增长。俄罗斯中国的军事实力增长，更多的是对比他们的邻居和那个区域。当然，这会造成战略上的挑战，但那是因为美国的同盟们，特别是欧洲，系统的忽略了他们的防务。
America's image is certainly damaged, as measured by global polls, but the practical effects of this are far from clear. Is America's image today worse than it was in the 1960s and early 1970s, with the Vietnam War; the Watts riots; the My Lai massacre; the assassinations of John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King and Bobby Kennedy; and Watergate? Does anyone recall that millions of anti-American protesters took to the streets in Europe in those years?
当然美国的形象是受损了，根据全球调查。但是这个实际的影响却远未明晰。难道美国今天的形象比六十年代或七十年代初期强吗？那时候越南战争，Watts暴乱，MyLai屠杀，肯尼迪兄弟、马丁路德金的遇刺，还有水门事件。有人能想象的蔬菜来成百万的人在欧洲上街反对美国示威吗？
Today, despite the polls, President Bush has managed to restore closer relations with allies in Europe and Asia, and the next president will be able to improve them even further. Realist theorists have consistently predicted for the past two decades that the world would "balance" against the United States. But nations such as India are drawing closer to America, and if any balancing is occurring, it is against China, Russia and Iran.
今天，尽管根据民意调查不好，布什总统还是修复了和欧洲和亚洲的同盟关系，下一届总统能够进一步改善。现实主义者不断预测在过去时代世界将制衡美国，但是象印度这样的国家也在崛起，如果有任何制衡的话，那是制衡中国、俄罗斯和伊朗。 奥巴马演讲很有感染力Q20) 不得不承认很有个人魅力 金融海啸第二波马上就来了，看你这个老大能撑到何时。
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