[11.6英国 经济学人]中国与苏丹：龙将现
原帖地址：http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12570587China and Sudan
翻译方式：个人翻译
There be dragonsNov 6th 2008 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
A grim reminder of the dangers of international engagement
AFPhttp://media.economist.com/images/20081108/4508AS2.jpg
FIVE boxes draped in blue cloth arrived in China from Sudan on November 5th. The ashes they bore were of dead oil workers, victims of what China’s foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, called one of the most serious cases in recent years of Chinese citizens being killed abroad. As China’s overseas investments grow, its companies are learning the hard way what is meant by “country risk”.
It is only this decade, when Chinese leaders have encouraged companies to “go out”, that China’s outward investment has taken off. Much of it has entailed a scramble for resources, often in conflict-torn areas. Chinese companies, which used to think of kidnappings and terrorist attacks as problems mainly for their Western rivals, are finding that they are targets too. Their risk-assessment and security-management skills are failing to keep up.
Details of the incident in Sudan are still sketchy. It is known that nine employees of China National Petroleum Corporation, a state-owned company, were kidnapped on October 18th in an oilfield in South Kordofan, in the volatile borderland between north and south. Nine days later five of them were killed. Sudanese and Chinese officials blamed the kidnappers. The Chinese press has also noted reports that the assailants might have panicked at the sight of a Sudanese military aircraft. A senior Sudanese official quoted on state-owned radio said the attackers’ target was Sudan’s “strategic relations with China”.
Life is getting ever riskier for Chinese workers in dangerous countries. This was the third attack against Chinese-invested oilfields in Sudan in the past year. In August two telecoms engineers were taken hostage by Taliban militants in Pakistan (they escaped in October, but one was recaptured). In Nigeria Chinese have been among the more than 200 foreigners kidnapped over the past three years. In April 2007 nine Chinese were killed when gunmen attacked an oilfield in Ethiopia. The grim list goes on.
Assessing political risk in other countries is a sensitive business in China. Officials worry about upsetting diplomatic partners (relationships with resource-rich countries such as Sudan are among those most carefully nurtured). It was not until 2005 that the first comprehensive country-risk report was published in China, by Sinosure, a state-owned provider of export-credit insurance (eg, to Chinese businesses in Sudan). Sinosure’s Liang Zhidong said last year he did not believe the conflict in Darfur posed a great risk to Chinese investments. Its significance, he said, was being “intentionally exaggerated”.
Unsurprisingly, some Chinese firms are beginning to turn to Western risk and security consultancies for advice. But many, untrammeled by public opinion at home, where Sudan, for example, barely registers as an issue, see the risk as a price that has to be paid. Western businesses, they complain, have snapped up the least risky deals, leaving Chinese latecomers little choice but to venture into conflict zones.
In Sudan, China’s cosy relationship with the government is clearly one reason why it is a target for militants. The Chinese foreign ministry tried to enhance its ability to predict and respond to such threats by setting up a department of external security affairs in 2004. But it shows no enthusiasm for using China’s diplomatic clout to try to resolve internal conflicts.
Yet Chinese state-run television, in a recent programme titled “Hostage Crisis Abroad, China’s Cautious Response”, suggested one reason why risks were growing for Chinese citizens overseas: China’s growing international influence. As China’s rise continues, its understanding of the security predicament that goes with being a superpower may yet improve.
翻译
国际参与的残酷警钟
五个从苏丹来的用蓝布包裹的盒子11月5号到达中国，里面装的是五个在苏丹丧身的石油工人的骨灰。中国外交部长杨洁篪称这是近年来中国居民在境外遇害的最残酷的一次事件。随着中国海外投资的增加，中国公司以这种痛苦的方式知道了所为的国际冒险。
近十年来，中国领导人鼓励中国公司走出去，从此中国的境外透支开始腾飞，这些处于冲突地区的公司往往肩负争夺资源的使命。中国公司往往认为绑架和恐怖袭击只会正对其西方的竞争着，如今他们发现自己也成为目标。他们的风险评估和安全管理出现脱节。
苏丹这起事故的细节人不明了，只知道国有中国石油的九名与10月十八日在处于南北交界动荡下的科尔多瓦地区的油田被绑架，九天后。其中五人被杀。苏丹和中国官员谴责绑架者。中国媒体也注明攻击者可能对苏丹的军用飞机感到恐慌。一位苏丹的高级官员引用国家广播话说，攻击者的目的是中国与苏丹的战略关系。
处于风险国家的中国工人的人生安全日益危险。这是去年以来中国在苏丹投资的油田受到的第三次攻击。8月，巴基斯坦塔利班组织劫持了2名电信工程师（其中一名十月逃脱，另一名又被抓）。过去三年以来在尼日利亚被绑架的200名外国人中也有中国人。2007年4月，九名中国人在埃塞俄比亚的油田被枪杀。这张残酷的名单仍未结束。
对其他国家的政治风险评估在中国是一个很敏感的事务。官员担心会惹恼其外交伙伴（与产油国家之间的关系，苏丹也在其特别关照之列）直到2005年，中国出口信用保险公司，一个提供出口保险的国有公司，才出版了第一本国家风险综合报告，该公司的Liang Zhidong 表示不敢相信达尔富尔地区的冲突也对中国投资带来巨大风险。其影响，他说，被故意夸大了。
毫不意外，一些中国公司开始向西方风险和安全咨询公司咨询，但很多在国内不受舆论拘束的公司，视这些风险为不得不付的代价，这些风险对苏丹来说几乎不是问题。他们抱怨西方公司抢走了风险最少的交易，中国这种后来者只能去冲突地区冒险。
中国跟苏丹政府的蜜月关系很显然是其成为好战分子目标的理由，中国外交部2004年建立境外安全事务局努、增加其对威胁的预报和反应机制。却不热衷于用外交手段来解决其内部冲突。
但中国国家电视台在最近一个节目标题说“国外人质危机，中国谨慎应对”。这就表明了境外中国具名风险提高的原因：中国日益增长的国际影响力。随着中国不断崛起，其对随着其成为一个超级强权而带来的安全困境的理解有待提高。
[ 本帖最后由 krypton 于 2008-11-8 16:33 编辑 ]
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