【08.11.10 英国 泰晤士报】北京豪赌3750亿英镑刺激经济
原文：http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5119855.ece翻译：http://www.yeeyan.com/articles/view/33128/17558?tag_related
November 10, 2008
Beijing gambles on £375bn rescue as Golden Years come to an endJane Macartney in Beijing
Ever since he was allowed to return to work on a Beijing building site after the Olympics, Zhou Shouheng has been nervous. He is still employed but some of his fellow migrant workers from the villages of Henan have been less fortunate, and he worries that China's sudden economic slowdown may soon claim his job, too.
The Government is just as anxious. The State Council, or Cabinet, unveiled an enormous package of spending yesterday, allocating four trillion yuan (£375 billion) to 2010 to stimulate the fastest-growing leading economy in the world, amid signs of a dramatic slowdown in the past few weeks.
It is no coincidence that the public spending was announced just days before President Hu Jintao is due to fly to Washington to take part in the G20 summit of government leaders.
He is certain to come under pressure to play a larger role in finding ways to soften the impact of the worsening financial storm. Mr Hu will now be equipped to explain how China, which contributed 27 per cent to global growth last year, is taking measures to help its economy.
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The size of the stimulus package, which will be spent on roads, railways and airports as well as affordable housing, rural infrastructure, the power grid, environmental protection and technical innovation, highlights the extent of the country's economic difficulties. It is many times larger than China's emergency spending after the Asian financial crisis of 1997.
Signs of trouble emerged last month when the Government announced that the economy had expanded by only 9 per cent in the third quarter compared with the previous year - its slowest rate in five years and down sharply from 10.1 per cent in the previous quarter. Such a slowdown is too steep for a country that needs to maintain growth of at least 8 per cent to create enough jobs for the millions who enter the workforce each year and to satisfy a public that has come to expect a steady rise in incomes.
Exports have crumbled, putting thousands out of work in China's coastal provinces. The railway station in the southern city of Guangzhou, gateway to the Pearl River delta that has become a workshop to the world in the past decade, is crammed with workers heading home to their farms.
Wen Caixia had worked in a shoe factory but decided to return to her home village in central Hubei province to care for her son. “There just wasn't enough work. I was barely making my basic salary. Over the past few months, the company wasn't getting enough orders. There was never any chance of overtime so we were unable to save any money,” she said.
The chorus has gained volume in the past few weeks. Government measures to cool an overheating economy, to force low-end manufacturers to produce goods of a higher quality and to intervene in the sharp rise in property prices have coincided with the global economic crisis.
The slowdown has been so rapid that it has yet to show up in the statistics. Stephen Green, an economist in Shanghai for Standard Chartered, said: “Only a few months ago there was only one story to write about corporate China: how much money everyone was making. Suddenly, though, the Golden Years have shuddered to a dramatic halt.”
Steel prices have dropped by more than 40 per cent from the June peak of $870 (£550) a tonne, crippling the sector and forcing large state-owned manufacturers to reduce production by as much as 20 per cent.
China's biggest property developer said that sales fell by 35 per cent in October compared with the previous year - the fifth consecutive monthly decline. The “Golden September” and “Silver October” months of peak sales that real estate agents have come to expect in the past five years have failed to materialise.
One international hotel group decided last week to delay opening its first property in Beijing until June next year at the earliest.
Mr Zhou believes that the government spending could reap rewards, and is not eager to return to his dusty village just yet. “All the men in my village have come to work for one boss because he has good connections,” he said.
Signs of the times
— 67,000 of China's 42 million small and medium businesses went bust in the first half of this year
— Since the start of this year 3,631 (53 per cent) of toy manufacturers have gone out of business
— In the third quarter of 2008 China's GDP growth dropped to 9per cent from 10.1 per cent in the previous quarter. It was the first time the GDP growth had dipped below 10 per cent in three years
— In October 2008 Chinese coal exports were down by 53.6 per cent on the same month in 2007
泰晤士报
2008年11月10日
简·马卡尼 北京报道
自从周寿恒被允许在奥运会后继续回到北京的工地工作起，他到现在还是恨紧张。他仍然受雇，但很多跟他一起从河南乡村来的外来工，就没那么好运了，他担心中国突如其来的经济下滑会马上把他的工作也夺去。
这也正是政府担心的。随着过去数星期前戏剧性地出现下滑迹象，国务院，或者说是中国的内阁，昨日揭开了巨额的一揽子政府开支方案，到2010年为止，拨出4万亿人民币（3750亿英镑），以刺激这个世界上增长最快的主要经济体。
巨额政府开支的宣布，离国家主席胡锦涛原定的飞往华盛顿参加20国首脑峰会日期只差几天，这并非完全是巧合。
外界要求中国在寻求缓解日益恶化的金融风暴的方式上，扮演更重要的角色，他肯定也受到了这种压力。胡主席现在可以做出阐释，中国，这一去年贡献全球增长27%的国家，如何采取措施帮助自身的经济。
这份一揽子刺激计划，将扩大在公路、铁路、机场、经济住房、农村基建、输电线路、环保以及技术革新方面的支出，囊括整个国家的经济难题。这比中国在1997年亚洲金融危机之后的紧急支出还要大很多倍。
当上月政府宣布经济在第三季度仅同比增长9%时——从第二季度的10.1%直线下降，是5年里的最低增长——问题就已经暴露出来了。这种下滑幅度对中国来说显得太大了，这个国家需要把增长率维持至少8%，才能为每年数以百万计涌入劳动市场的人创造足够的工作，并且满足公众对收入稳定增长的期待。
出口下滑，增加了中国东南沿海数以千计的失业人口。广州，是这个珠江三角洲的门户，曾经是过去十年里的世界工厂。如今，广州火车站里挤满了回乡种田的农民工。
温彩霞原来在一家鞋厂工作，但已经决定回到湖北省中部的家乡照顾儿子。她说：“那里已经没有足够的工作了。我只能得到基本的工资。在过去数月里，公司得不到足够的订单。工厂已经没有任何加班机会了，所以我们无法积攒更多积蓄。”
在过去的数周时间里，越来越多人持这种观点。政府采取为过热的经济降温，强迫低档的制造商生产更高品质的产品，干涉疯涨的地产价格等措施，却正好撞上全球经济危机。
经济下滑来得太快了，以至于还未能在统计数据上显示出来。上海渣打银行的经济学家史蒂芬·格林表示：“就在数月前，这里关于中国的故事还都只是：每个人都赚了多少多少钱。突然之间，黄金岁月就戏剧性中止了。”
钢铁价格从六月时顶峰的870美元/吨（550英镑）下跌了超过40%，这让该行业临近崩溃，并且迫使大型国有钢铁制造企业减产了大约20%。
中国最大的地产发展商表示，销售量在10月同比下降了35%——连续第5个月出现下降。在过去5年里，地产代理每年期待的销售顶峰月份——“黄金九月”和“银十月”，今年已经化为泡影。
一家国际酒店集团上周决定把其在北京第一个的地产项目开业时间推迟到最早明年六月。
周寿恒先生相信，政府支出应该能收获成效，他现在还不想会去他那满是尘土的故乡。他说：“我们村所有的男人们都曾为同一个老板工作过，他有很好的关系网。”
经济下滑的迹象
— 今年上半年，在中国4200万中小企业中，有6万7000家倒闭
— 自今年起，有3631家玩具厂（占53%）歇业。
— 中国2008年第三季度GDP同比增长从10.1%下降到9%。这是过去3年里中国GDP增长首次下降到10%以下。
— 2008年10月的中国煤炭出口月2007年同比下降53.6%
[ 本帖最后由 langxianping 于 2008-11-10 20:54 编辑 ] 好象中国每年都得有几万家企业倒闭吧...
后面3项的主因 还是外围经济提的购买力下滑. 经济转型是个非常痛苦的过程，会影响很多人，但不转更不行，转型时遇到经济危机是好还是坏，现在说不清，中国只能是摸石头过河，走出自己的路 别的不说，就说说当年国有企业改制，
倒闭的国有企业那比例大了去了。4200万中小企业中，有6万7000家才多少比例。 原帖由 竹隐泉 于 2008-11-10 21:06 发表 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
经济转型是个非常痛苦的过程，会影响很多人，但不转更不行，转型时遇到经济危机是好还是坏，现在说不清，中国只能是摸石头过河，走出自己的路
很多人对未来是乐观的，如果转型成功，中国将步入发达国家的行列。未来几年有两个重要的国产品牌需要大家持续的关注，一个是比亚迪，再一个是龙芯。 弱弱的问，比亚迪到底是做什么的？ 豪赌3750亿英镑 原帖由 青春中国 于 2008-11-10 23:40 发表 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
弱弱的问，比亚迪到底是做什么的？
汽车，核心技术是电池。
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