【08.11.10 英国 经济学家网站】中国5860亿美元经济刺激计划
原文：http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12585407翻译：个人翻译
A $586 billion stimulus plan for China's economy
China seeks stimulationNov 10th 2008 | BEIJING
From Economist.com
A stimulus plan to inject $586 billion into China's economy. But the devil lies in the detail
WITH one eye turned towards keeping its own economy on track and the other trained fearfully on the impact of the global economic downturn, China has announced a four trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package, the largest in the country’s history.
Unveiled by China's State Council on the evening of Sunday November 9th, the two-year spending initiative will inject funds into ten sectors, including health care, education, low-income housing, environmental protection, schemes to promote technological innovation, and transport and other infrastructure projects. The government also says that some of the spending will be directed to reconstruction efforts in areas battered by natural disasters, such as Sichuan province which was devastated by a massive earthquake in May.
“Over the past two months, the global financial crisis has been intensifying daily,” the State Council said in a statement. “In expanding investment, we must be fast and heavy-handed.” News of the stimulus package has been welcomed by global investors. Asian and European stockmarkets rose on Monday, with American markets also climbing. China's decisive move is likely to please foreign governments which are now grappling with the global downturn. It comes a few days before the Chinese president is scheduled to attend a global economic summit in Washington, DC, and a day after Hu Jintao had spoken by phone to the American president-elect, Barack Obama, about the global economic crisis and other issues.
China’s government has so far provided few details of when the money will be spent or how it will be divided. Officials do say that fourth quarter investment for this year will total 400 billion yuan, including 20 billion yuan brought forward from next year's central government budget. If fully realised, the two-year spending spree would amount to about 16% of China's annual gross domestic product.
The newly announced measures also include a loosening of credit policies and tax cuts. The plan calls for reforms in the country’s value-added tax regime that would save industry 120 billion yuan, according to an estimate by the government. Credit ceilings for commercial banks are to be abolished in the hope of channelling more capital to small enterprises, rural areas and unspecified “priority projects”.
The government is concerned about the potential for frivolous or speculative investments, so the State Council also decreed at its meeting on Sunday that credit expansion must be “rational” and should “target spheres that would promote and consolidate the expansion of consumer credit.” Finding ways to get Chinese consumers spending should be a priority. Unleashing domestic demand has been a longstanding goal of Chinese policymakers, but Chinese consumers—with few of their health-care or retirement needs reliably met either by employers or the state—often prefer to save.
China has sustained double-digit economic growth rates over the past five years but the economy has been slowing, considerably in some sectors. The economy logged a growth rate of 11.9% last year, but many forecasters believe that it will dip below 10% this year, with fourth-quarter growth down to 6% or even lower.
Growth rates in that range may be the envy of recession-battered economies, but mark signs of trouble for China. It is an article of faith among many economists—and a view publicly stated earlier this year by the Chinese prime minister, Wen Jiabao—that China needs a growth rate of at least 7% to avoid massive unemployment. The country has been hurt in recent months by softening export markets, depressed domestic property values and stockmarkets, and declining consumer and investor confidence.
Much remains unclear about the implementation of the stimulus plan—even its size. According to Sherman Chan, a Sydney-based economist with Moody's, the real size of the package may not be as large as the government has described. “Some of the measures announced in the stimulus package appear to have been already introduced or even implemented earlier. Hence, the size of this stimulus package—which is expected to be in the form of additional spending—may have been overstated,” Chan wrote in a research note.
中国经济5800亿美元刺激计划
中国寻求刺激
2008年11月10号|北京
Economist.com
刺激计划注入5860亿美元到中国的经济。但是，魔鬼存在于细节中 。
用一只眼睛转向维持自己的经济运行轨道，另一只转向关注全球经济低迷可怕的影响的时候，中国宣布了40000亿元（五千八百六十万万美元）刺激计划，该国的历史上最大的。
周日晚上11月9日中国国务院公布的，关于为期两年的开支计划将注资入10个部门，包括卫生保健，教育，低收入住房，环境保护，计划，以促进技术创新，运输和其他基础设施项目。政府还表示，一些开支将针对自然灾害重建领域中，如5月份的四川大地震。
“在过去的两个月里，全球金融危机已加深” ，国务院在一项声明中说。 “在扩大投资方面，我们出手要快，下手要重。 ”一揽子计划的新闻受到全球投资者欢迎。亚洲和欧洲股市周一收高，美国市场也上升。中国的果断的行动很可能会符合现在正忙于全球经济下滑问题的外国政府意愿。前些天中国主席被邀请出席华盛顿特区的全球经济首脑会议，一天前胡锦涛曾通过电话向美国当选总统，奥巴马，讨论全球经济危机和其他问题。
中国政府迄今已提供了一些细节，这笔钱将用于如何划分。官员们说，第四季度的投资今年将达到4000亿元，其中200亿元结转明年的中央预算。如果得到充分实现，为期两年的投资将达到约16 ％的中国年度国内生产总值。
新宣布的措施还包括一个松动的信贷政策和减税计划。该计划要求改革国家的增值税制度，将节省产业1200亿元，据政府估计。商业银行信贷最高限额将废除，希望引导更多的资金向小企业，农村和不明“优先项目” 。
政府关注的是潜在的轻率或投机性投资，所以国务院周日会议上又颁布，信贷扩张必须是“合理的” ，应该“目标的领域，将促进和巩固扩大消费信贷。 ”寻找如何让中国的消费者支出列为优先事项。释放国内需求一直是中国的决策者长期的目标，但中国的消费者，由雇主或国家提供很少的医疗保健和可靠退休保证，往往更喜欢储蓄。
在过去五年里中国一直保持两位数的经济增长率，但相当一些部门经济已经放缓。去年同期记录的经济增长率为11.9 ％ ，但许多经济学家认为，将下降10 ％以下，今年第四季度的增长率下降到6 ％甚至更低。
在这个范围内增长速度可能是受到经济衰退困扰的其他经济体羡慕的。但却标志中国的麻烦。许多经济学家今年早些时候公开宣称，包括中国总理温家宝，认为中国需求的增长速度至少7 ％ ，以避免大规模失业。该国已造成近几个月来的出口市场的退缩，压低国内的财产价值和股票市场，并减少消费者和投资者的信心。
该刺激计划仍有许多不清楚的，甚至是它的规模大小。根据Sherman Chan，悉尼经济学家，穆迪评估机构，真正的规模未必与政府描述一样大。 “一些措施宣布的一揽子刺激似乎已经宣布了，甚至早先实施。因此，刺激计划的规模，预计的额外开支的形式，可能已被夸大了， “陈在研究报告中写道。
[ 本帖最后由 langxianping 于 2008-11-11 04:28 编辑 ] 邪恶隐藏于细节中，
怎么有这么阴森森的评论？
写这个报道的家伙是吃了中国产的假冒伟哥，为不举而抓狂吗？ 楼上不要闹笑话好不好，“魔鬼存在于细节中”是现代西方管理学中的一个术语。它说的是，忽视细节是导致企业竞争失利的一个重要原因。 原帖由 langxianping 于 2008-11-11 04:12 发表 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
楼上不要闹笑话好不好，“魔鬼存在于细节中”是现代西方管理学中的一个术语。它说的是，忽视细节是导致企业竞争失利的一个重要原因。
学到知识了. 中国5860亿美元经济刺激计划 今年第四季度的增长率下降到6 ％甚至更低 A $586 billion stimulus plan for China's economy
【08.11.10 英国 经济学家】中国寻求刺激
【标题】中国寻求刺激【链接】http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12585407&fsrc=nwl
【翻译】eori（汗一个）
【声明】本文翻译仅限Anti-CNN使用，转载请注明译者及出处。
【原文】
A $586 billion stimulus plan for China's economy
China seeks stimulationNov 10th 2008 | BEIJING
From Economist.com
A stimulus plan to inject $586 billion into China's economy. But the devil lies in the detail
http://media.economist.com/images/na/2008w46/China_top.jpg
WITH one eye turned towards keeping its own economy on track and the other trained fearfully on the impact of the global economic downturn, China has announced a four trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package, the largest in the country’s history.
Unveiled by China's State Council on the evening of Sunday November 9th, the two-year spending initiative will inject funds into ten sectors, including health care, education, low-income housing, environmental protection, schemes to promote technological innovation, and transport and other infrastructure projects. The government also says that some of the spending will be directed to reconstruction efforts in areas battered by natural disasters, such as Sichuan province which was devastated by a massive earthquake in May.
“Over the past two months, the global financial crisis has been intensifying daily,” the State Council said in a statement. “In expanding investment, we must be fast and heavy-handed.” News of the stimulus package has been welcomed by global investors. Asian and European stockmarkets rose on Monday, with American markets also climbing. China's decisive move is likely to please foreign governments which are now grappling with the global downturn. It comes a few days before the Chinese president is scheduled to attend a global economic summit in Washington, DC, and a day after Hu Jintao had spoken by phone to the American president-elect, Barack Obama, about the global economic crisis and other issues.
China’s government has so far provided few details of when the money will be spent or how it will be divided. Officials do say that fourth quarter investment for this year will total 400 billion yuan, including 20 billion yuan brought forward from next year's central government budget. If fully realised, the two-year spending spree would amount to about 16% of China's annual gross domestic product.
The newly announced measures also include a loosening of credit policies and tax cuts. The plan calls for reforms in the country’s value-added tax regime that would save industry 120 billion yuan, according to an estimate by the government. Credit ceilings for commercial banks are to be abolished in the hope of channelling more capital to small enterprises, rural areas and unspecified “priority projects”.
The government is concerned about the potential for frivolous or speculative investments, so the State Council also decreed at its meeting on Sunday that credit expansion must be “rational” and should “target spheres that would promote and consolidate the expansion of consumer credit.” Finding ways to get Chinese consumers spending should be a priority. Unleashing domestic demand has been a longstanding goal of Chinese policymakers, but Chinese consumers—with few of their health-care or retirement needs reliably met either by employers or the state—often prefer to save.
China has sustained double-digit economic growth rates over the past five years but the economy has been slowing, considerably in some sectors. The economy logged a growth rate of 11.9% last year, but many forecasters believe that it will dip below 10% this year, with fourth-quarter growth down to 6% or even lower.
Growth rates in that range may be the envy of recession-battered economies, but mark signs of trouble for China. It is an article of faith among many economists—and a view publicly stated earlier this year by the Chinese prime minister, Wen Jiabao—that China needs a growth rate of at least 7% to avoid massive unemployment. The country has been hurt in recent months by softening export markets, depressed domestic property values and stockmarkets, and declining consumer and investor confidence.
Much remains unclear about the implementation of the stimulus plan—even its size. According to Sherman Chan, a Sydney-based economist with Moody's, the real size of the package may not be as large as the government has described. “Some of the measures announced in the stimulus package appear to have been already introduced or even implemented earlier. Hence, the size of this stimulus package—which is expected to be in the form of additional spending—may have been overstated,” Chan wrote in a research note.
【译文】
中国寻求刺激
Nov 10th 2008 | BEIJING
From Economist.com
一个注资中国经济的5860亿美元刺激计划。但是它在细节中隐藏着魔鬼的谎言。
随着一方面转向维持自身的经济运行以及其他的一系列可怕的全球经济衰退的影响，中国宣布了这个国家历史上最大的四万亿元（约5860亿美元）的刺激经济计划。
中国的国务院在11月9日周五晚上公布，为期两年的投资计划将注资入十个部门，包括卫生保健，教育，低收入住房、环境保护、科技创新计划、运输和其他基础设施项目。政府还表示，一些开支将针对遭受自然灾害地区的重建工作，例如在五月的特大地震中受灾的四川省。
“在过去的两个月中，全球经济危机日益强化，”国务院发表的一项声明中表示。“在扩大投资方面，我们应该更快更猛。”刺激经济计划的消息被全球投资者们欢迎。周一亚洲和欧洲的股市都上涨了，同时美国股市也攀升了。中国的果断行动可能会有利于那些正好全球衰退中焦头烂额的外国政府们。这个计划颁布的几天前中国国家主席被邀请参加在华盛顿特区举办的一个全球经济首脑会议，一天前***还和美国待任总统Barack Obama通过电话连线，讨论全球经济危机和其他问题。
中国政府目前为止提供了很少的细节譬如这钱应该怎么花或者怎么筹集这笔钱。官员们说今年第四季度的投资将达到4000亿元，包括拨给下年中央政府预算的200亿元。如果全部实现的话，为期两年的挥霍将达到中国年度国民生产总值的16%。
新宣布的政策还包括一个松散的信贷政策及减税方案。这个计划要求改革国家增值税制度，据政府估计将为企业节省1200亿元。商业银行将废除信贷限额，希望引导更多的资本流入小企业、农村地区及未说明的“优先项目”。
政府关注的是潜在的轻率的或是投机性的投资，所以国务院也在周日的会议上颁布，信贷扩张必须是“合理的”以及应该“目标的领域，能够促进和巩固扩大消费信贷。”寻求如何让中国消费者去花费应列为优先事项。释放国内需求一直是中国政策制定者们长期的目标，但是中国的消费者——他们的卫生保健或者退休的需要很少能得到雇主或是国家可靠的保障——经常更愿意存钱。
中国在过去五年里一直保持两位数的经济增长速度，但现在经济已经在相当一些部门放缓了。去年被记录的经济增速是11.9%，但是很多预测者相信今年会小跌至10%以下，第四季度的增长会下降至6%甚至更低。
在这个范围中的增长速度可能会受到有经济衰退困难的经济体的羡慕，但这也是标志着中国遇到麻烦的信号。这是一篇在许多经济学家中受到追捧的文章——今年早些时候中国国家总理***公开表明——中国需要至少9%以上的增长速度来避免大量的失业。在最近几个月中这个国家已经遭受了出口市场疲软、被压低的国民财产价值及股市以及消费者和投资者信心下降的伤害。
这个刺激经济计划的实施依然有着许多不清楚的地方——甚至是它的规模。根据Sydney-based economist with Moody's的经济学家Sherman Chan看来，这个计划的实际规模应该不像政府描述的那样庞大。“在这个刺激经济计划中的部分措施似乎早前已经被宣布过了甚至是实施过了。所以，这个刺激经济计划的规模——被期望是以额外投资的形式——也许是被夸大了”Chan在一个研究报告中写道。 有人就是热衷于西方媒体的声音Q76)
别人说的就是好，是吧 ～～～刺激的不够呢～～～Q44) 原帖由 langxianping 于 2008-11-11 19:59 发表 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
今年第四季度的增长率下降到6 ％甚至更低
你牛B,你大仙！Q43)
你转发的帖子从来就是唱衰中国的，不知道是何居心！？
[ 本帖最后由 icmp1975 于 2008-11-12 00:21 编辑 ] 是啊一直在扩大内需 大体看了一个当局的方案
其实其重点还是在于填补大量中小企业倒闭造成的就业压力,所以要大量开工增加基建项目,刺激底层民众的消费欲望
另外,教育和医疗改革能有效的释放中产的消费能力的关键,这点暂时看不出什么来,不知哪位高人分析一下Q76) 教育和医疗确实能释放消费能力，但中国人的习惯爱存钱，尤其是30岁以上的，俗话说家有余粮，心里不忙。国家好象也是这样的。估计下一代会好点。现在月光族不是也很流行吗。
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