【08.11.6英国 经济学人】台湾和中国：抵挡中国的甜蜜进攻
【媒体出处】http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12570579【中文翻译】elpeggy原创翻译
【原文标题】Taiwan and China：Resisting China's charm offensive
【中文标题】台湾和中国：抵挡中国的甜蜜进攻
【声 明】本文翻译仅限Anti-CNN使用，谢绝转载
【原 文】
Taiwan and China
Resisting China's charm offensive
Nov 6th 2008 | TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition
Rather than bringing unification closer, new economic ties solidify the status quo
http://media.economist.com/images/20081108/4508AS1.jpg
AFP
CHIANG PIN-KUNG, who heads the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), the body through which Taiwan talks to China, called it “a key moment” and a “win-win economic situation”. The arrival in Taiwan on November 3rd of his mainland Chinese counterpart, Chen Yunlin, offered a ray of hope for the island’s faltering economy. Mr Chen, the highest-ranking visitor from China since the end of the civil war in 1949, came to sign a slew of business agreements. But for Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, the visit was a gamble.
Supporters of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) dogged Mr Chen’s footsteps, with protests accusing Mr Ma of selling out to the Chinese. Thousands of police were deployed to control the demonstrators, but failed to stop them besieging Mr Chen during a banquet in Taipei. His meeting with Mr Ma was rescheduled to fox protesters. Last month Mr Chen’s deputy was assaulted by DPP activists in southern Taiwan. The DPP’s traditional support for formal independence helps explain China’s fondness for Mr Ma, of the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang. Since he succeeded the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian in May, China has oozed charm.
The latest agreements offer more substantial business ties than ever before. Most eye-catching is a big expansion of direct transport links. A new direct air route, avoiding Hong Kong’s airspace, will reduce travel time from Taiwan to Shanghai by over an hour, and save an estimated 40- 50% in fuel costs. Passenger charter flights, at present limited to 36 round-trips each weekend, are to become daily and increase to 108 a week. The number of flight destinations in China will increase to 21 from five, and there will be 60 round-trip charter cargo flights each month. There will also be new direct sea links, with 11 ports in Taiwan and 63 in China open to ships from the other side.
All this should delight Taiwan’s businesses, which have long pushed for direct links. The government estimates that they have invested over $150 billion in China. But the absence of direct links marginalises Taiwan from global supply chains. Wang Lee-rong, of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, a semi-official think-tank, insists the agreements “are not only symbolic, but will have real impact.” They might help not just Taiwan and China, she says, but the regional economy as a whole. This appeals to Mr Ma at a time when his popularity is slumping, as Taiwan is battered by global financial turmoil.
Despite the protests against Mr Chen’s visit, Andrew Yang, of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a think-tank, says most Taiwanese do not see the agreements as surrender to China. Mr Ma’s standing, he argues, depends on whether they can actually revitalise the economy. If global turmoil continues to drag down Taiwan’s economy, he says, it may stay in the doldrums.
For China, the economic accords form part of a broader push to burnish its image in Taiwan. It has even employed one of its traditional courtship rituals by offering a Taiwan zoo a pair of giant pandas—popular with the public, though the Chen administration turned down an earlier offer.
Despite the talk of warming ties, both sides have to walk on political eggshells. China cannot stomach anything that hints at separate statehood for Taiwan. So when he met Mr Ma on November 6th, Mr Chen could not bring himself to call him “president”. And Mr Ma, conscious that there is hardly any popular support in Taiwan for imminent unification with China, has also refrained from overtly political statements. Fudging the issue of Taiwan’s status, he has described its ties with China as “special relations between two regions”.
He has argued that setting political differences aside will allow the two sides to build mutual trust. This, he hopes, may even lead to broader negotiations on lowering political and military tensions, where, as he reminded Mr Chen, the two sides “have their differences and challenges”. This week Lai Shin-yuan, of Taiwan’s advisory Mainland Affairs Council, said she had urged Mr Chen in a closed-door meeting to remove China’s military threat. She did not reveal his response. But Mr Ma’s avowed goal of a peace treaty seems distant. It would depend on China’s removing the estimated 1,400 missiles it has pointing at Taiwan, which China would not agree to do without a big reciprocal concession from Taiwan. And, unlike the economic talks, which can be handled through notionally “non-governmental” bodies, it would require direct official talks, with all the headaches that would entail.
China, however, may be content with this impasse. In recent years, even during Chen Shui-bian’s rule, Chinese officials have shown far greater willingness to leave Taiwan be, as long as it resists any formal declaration of independence. The accords on cross-strait transportation give China’s leaders a chance to show hardline nationalists that their tactics are working. With President Hu Jintao and the prime minister, Wen Jiabao, constitutionally required to step down in 2013, they may be more than happy to leave solving the Taiwan puzzle to their successors.
【译文】
台湾和中国：
抵挡中国的甜蜜进攻
2008年11月6日，台北
来自《经济学人》印刷版
新的经济纽带与其说带动了统一进程，倒不如说是巩固了现状。
http://media.economist.com/images/20081108/4508AS1.jpg
（图中标语：台湾是我家！台湾不是中国的一部分！——民进党宜兰县党部）
一直以来负责台湾与中国对话的组织——海峡两岸经贸文化交流协会理事长江丙坤，把目前称为“一个关键时刻”和“经济共赢”。十一月三日抵达台湾的大陆代表陈云林，给岛内艰难的经济状况带来一线光芒。陈先生作为1949年内战结束后访问的最高级别官员，此次赴台签署一系列经济协议。但对台湾总统马英九来说，这个访问是一场赌博。
反对党民进党的支持者们在陈先生身后一路跟梢，抗议指控马先生叛投中国。虽然配置了数千名警察以控制示威者，但仍未能阻止他们在台北的一场宴会期间将陈先生团团包围。陈先生与马先生的会面被重新安排以迷惑抗议者。上个月，陈先生的副手在台湾南部被民进党激进分子袭击。民进党支持（台湾）正式独立的这一传统有助于解释为什么中国偏爱马先生和他所在的“民族主义党”——国民党。自从五月份他接替了民进党的陈水扁，中国就慢慢施展起魅力来
最近一次的协议提供了比以往任何时候都更为实质性的的经济联系。最引人注目的是直航线路的大幅扩展。新的直航航线不再绕道香港，台湾至上海的旅行时间将缩短一个多小时，可节约40％－50％的燃料费用。目前限制在每周末36次往返航班的民航包机，将变为日常航线，每周往返航班增至108次。中国的航班目的地将由5个增至21个，每月还将有60次货运往返航班。新的海运航线也将开辟，台湾的11个港口和中国的63个港口将实现互航。
所有这些对台湾商业将是一个喜讯，而商业将长期推动直航。政府估计他们已在中国投资了超过150万亿美元，但直航的缺失导致台湾在国际供应链上的边缘化。半官方智囊机构，中华经济研究协会的王丽容强调，这些协议“不仅仅是象征性的，而是将产生真正的影响”。她说，这可能将不仅仅有利于台湾和中国，也将有利于地区总体经济。此种呼吁提出之时，正值马先生支持率低迷、台湾被全球经济危机打垮之时。
中国高等政策研究会的Andrew Yang说，不管抗议者们如何反对陈先生的访问，大多数台湾人并不将协议视为对中国的献降。他坚持认为，马先生的立场，取决于是否能真正复苏经济，如果全球金融危机继续拖累台湾经济，他的立场也不会多么积极。
对中国来说，经济是全面推动改善其对台形象计划的一部分。他们甚至使用了传统的示好仪式：给台湾动物园提供了一对广受大众欢迎的大熊猫——尽管陈先生的部门早先曾经拒绝过这一提议。
尽管会谈令联系回暖，但双方在政治上都不得不如履薄冰。中国不能容忍任何有关台湾独立状态的暗示，所以当陈先生11月6日与马先生会面时，他不会称其为“总统”，而马先生深知即将到来的与中国的联合在岛内难以取得大众支持，因此也尽量避免提及政治议题。为了模糊台湾的地位，他将此次与中国的联系描述为“地区间的特殊关系”。
他强调，搁置政治分歧将有利于双方建立互信。他希望这能够进一步带动更广范围的谈判以降低政治和军事的紧张状态。他提醒陈先生，这正是双方的分歧与挑战所在。
本周，台湾的大陆事务顾问团顾问Lai Shin-yuan说，她已在一次非公开会议中力促陈先生撤除中国的军事威胁。她没有透露他的回答。但马先生关于和平条约的公开目标看来尚很遥远。此目标取决于中国是否会移除指向台湾的估计约1400枚导弹，但如果没有相应的大幅让步，中国是不会答应的。而且，不像经济对话可以通过名义上的“非政府”实体来进行，（政治对话）需要直接的官方会谈，一切的头痛事也将随之而来。
无论如何，中国也许可以满足于这种僵局。最近几年，即使在陈水扁统治下，只要台湾不发布任何正式的独立生命，中国官方依然表现得很愿意由着它去。两岸运输协定给了中国领导人一个机会，向强硬的民族主义者们显示他们的策略起效了。主席胡锦涛和总理温家宝按宪法将于2013年卸任，他们也许很高兴能把台湾难题留给他们的继任者。 狗拿耗子的英国人Q37) 主席胡锦涛和总理温家宝按宪法将于2013年卸任，他们也许很高兴能把台湾难题留给他们的继任者。
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这就是他们的思维啦. 陈云林访台确实把福摩沙文革推向了一个新高度 150万亿美元？ billion是十亿台湾还是很穷的 没那么多钱 美国也不可能有 原帖由 Einstein 于 2008-11-13 01:26 发表 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
主席胡锦涛和总理温家宝按宪法将于2013年卸任，他们也许很高兴能把台湾难题留给他们的继任者。
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这就是他们的思维啦. ...
2013年?? 你确定? 是，国家领导人五年一届，小平之后，惯例就是只干两届。
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