[11.13 英国 经济学人] 中国经济：巨龙再次膨胀
【链接】http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12606998【标题】中国经济：巨龙再次膨胀
【翻译】Krypton
China's economy
Reflating the dragonNov 13th 2008 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
Can the world’s fastest-growing economy avoid a sharp downturn?世上增长最快的经济体能避免急剧下降吗？
AFP http://media.economist.com/images/20081115/4608FB1.jpg
WHEN Deng Xiaoping set China on the road of economic reforms in 1978, Western economists argued that “Only capitalism can save China.” Exactly 30 years later, some pundits are claiming that “Only China can save capitalism.” Most rich economies are now facing recession. But if China, the world’s third-biggest economy, can manage to sustain reasonably robust growth, it will help to cushion global output. A massive stimulus package of 4 trillion yuan (nearly $600 billion) announced by the government on November 9th was therefore widely cheered at home and abroad. Will it be enough to re-stoke the dragon’s fire?
1978年当邓小平使中国踏上经济改革开放之路时，西方经济学家争论说只有资本主义能救中国，而整整三十年后，一些博学者声称只有中国能救资本主义。如今大部分经济大国已经面临衰退，但是如果中国这个第三大经济实体能够保持合理的强劲增长，这将有利于巩固全球产出。11月9日中国政府宣布的达4亿元（近6000亿美元）的刺激计划受到国内外的广泛欢迎。能足够从燃巨龙的火焰吗?
After growing by an annual average of over 10% over the past five years, China’s economy has suddenly cooled more quickly than expected. GDP growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter, from 11.9% in 2007. That still sounds pretty impressive, but other indicators suggest weaker times ahead. Construction, steel demand, electricity consumption, car sales and air travel have all been falling in recent months. Industrial production grew by only 8.2% in the year to October, less than half its pace a year ago and its slowest for seven years. Share prices have slumped by 70% from their peak and house prices have started to drop. Property sales are running 40-50% lower than a year ago. Unsurprisingly, surveys show that consumer and business confidence is cracking.
在连续五年年平均增长率达到10%后，中国经济突然以高于人们的预期的速度降温。GDP增长率从2007年的11.9%降至今年第三季度9%。这看上去仍然很惊人，但是其它参数表明（中国）面临疲软阶段。建筑业，钢铁，电力消耗，汽车销量与航空近几个月来都有下降。工业产值到今年十月仅增加8.2%，不足去年的一半，是七年来最低的一年。股市缩水70%，房价也开始松动。房地产销售比去年低40%~50%。毫不惊讶，调查显示消费者和商人的信心正受挫折。
China’s slowdown only partly reflects weaker exports as the world economy sags. Some of it is home-grown, caused by a deliberate tightening of monetary policy to curb inflation and an overheated property market. Indeed, export growth has held up surprisingly well. In the first ten months of this year exports were 21% higher in dollar terms than a year ago, compared with growth of 26% in 2007. They have slowed more sharply in real terms, but were still up by 13% in the year to the third quarter.
中国减速只是部分反映了出口随世界经济衰退而减弱。其中一部分是由国内为抑制通胀和房地产过热而特意采取的紧缩货币政策引起的。事实上，出口增长出奇的保持的良好，今年头十月的出口增长率与2007年的26%相比以美元计高21%，但目前已急剧降低，但到今年第三季度仍达13%。
Guangdong province, in southern China, has been hit hardest. Thousands of firms making shoes, toys and clothing have been forced to close this year, partly as a result of a new labour law that has lifted wage costs, as well as weaker foreign sales. According to local newspaper reports, half of China’s toymakers and one-third of its shoe firms have disappeared this year. Yet toys and shoes now account for less than 5% of China’s total exports. Exports of machinery and transport equipment (almost half of the total) are still rising at an annual rate of more than 20% in volume terms.
中国南方广东省受到的冲击最严重。数以千计的玩具，鞋和服装制造企业被迫关闭，部分是由于新劳动法导致薪资提高和海外销售减弱引起。根据当地报纸报道，今年一半玩具制造企业和三分之一的制鞋企业破产倒闭。但玩具和鞋仍占中国出口量不到5%。机械和运输设备（总量的一半）以体积计每年仍以20%的速度递增。
The doom and gloom in Guangdong may be overdone. Many small factories close every year as a result of consolidation. Others have moved to cheaper parts of the country. The troubles of many firms in low-value sectors, such as toys and shoes, partly reflects China’s success in moving up into higher-value industries, which has pushed up wages
广东的消沉和厄运可能有些夸张。每年有许多小企业因兼并而倒闭。其余一部分迁往该国更廉价的区域。许多陷入困境的低产值公司部门，如鞋业和玩具业，部分反映了中国正向高产值工业成功迈进，同时也推动工资上涨。.
Across China, companies report that foreign orders have shrunk sharply over the past couple of months as the developed world has slipped into recession. Some economists reckon that next year China’s exports may see no growth (in dollar terms) for the first time in more than 25 years. Imports are also slowing sharply, reflecting the high import content of many Chinese exports. Even so, UBS, a bank, forecasts that in 2009 net exports will be a negative drag on GDP growth. In 2007, net exports contributed almost three percentage points of the 12% increase in GDP.
全中国企业报道说由于发达国家面临衰退，中国的订单过去几个月急剧减少。一些经济学家估计，中国明年出口将二十五间来第一次出现零增长。进口也急剧减少，这反映了中国许多出口商品中进口商品含量很高。即使如此，UBS预言2009年进出口值将为GDP增长带来负面效应。2007年进出口值占GDP12%增长率的3%
Dismal export prospects will also depress manufacturing investment next year. Residential property construction is likely to continue to fall at least until mid-year, which, in turn, will reduce demand in industries such as steel and cement. However, China’s housing bust is not as serious as those in many developed economies. Although too many luxury homes were built in some cities, there is no massive oversupply at the national level, and urbanisation and rising incomes will continue to support demand for housing.
低迷的出口前景也将是制造业投资下降，明年住宅建设很可能继续下跌，这种情况至少持续到明年中期，这又引起对如钢铁，水泥等产业需求的降低。然而，中国房地产问题不像许多发达国家一样严重。尽管一些城市建设了许多豪宅，但从全国水平上讲，并没有出现大面积过剩。城市化和收入上涨将继续推进对房地产的需求。
One bright light amid the darkness is retail sales, which rose by 17% in real terms in the year to October. Some sectors, such as furniture and household electronics, are feeling the pinch from the property downturn, but overall spending is expected to remain brisk next year, thanks to rising incomes and households’ low level of debt. Over the past year real incomes have risen by 10% in urban areas and 14% in the countryside. A fall in house prices will hurt Chinese consumers much less than their American counterparts, because Chinese households are not up to their necks in debt. Total household debt (including mortgages) amounts to only 13% of GDP, against 100% in America. During America’s boom, it was easy to get a mortgage for 100% or more of the value of a home, but Chinese buyers have had to put down a minimum deposit of 30%.
零售业是黑暗中的一线曙光 ，到今年十月增长17%。一部分产业如家具和家电产业可能受到房地产业低迷的影响，但由于收入增加和低家庭负债率，明年的销售总量将仍然繁荣。去年，城市家庭实际收入增长10%，农村增长14%。由于中国家庭负债很小，房价下跌对中国消费者造成的损失远比美国小
。家庭负债总量仅为GDP的13%，而美国则是100%，美国低迷时期是，对房价的全额贷款很容易，但中国购买者至少要预付30%的预付款。
Adding net exports, business investment, construction and consumption together, China’s growth next year would probably drop to less than 6% without any government help—its slowest rate for almost two decades. Most countries would still be happy with such a figure, but it has become an article of faith in China that output needs to grow by at least 8% a year to create enough jobs for the millions of rural Chinese moving to cities. Growth of less than 8%, it is claimed, will lead to rising unemployment and social unrest.
加上净出口额，商业投资，建筑和消费一起，若没有政府援助，中国明年的增长率将降至低于6%——20年来最低。但是对中国增长率至少需要8%已经成为信条，这样才能为每年从农村涌向城市的数百万人创造足够的就业机会。他们声称增长率低于8%将会导致失业提高和社会动荡。
In fact, the original estimate for China’s required minimum rate of growth, which was made in the mid-1990s, was 7%, not 8%. And the correct figure is now probably lower, because the original estimate was based not only on the flood of people out of the countryside, but also on the number of new jobs that were needed to absorb massive lay-offs by state firms. In addition, the number of young people joining the labour force each year has fallen with the birth rate, and a spurt in rural incomes in recent years has encouraged some to stay on the farm rather than move to the city.
事实上中国20世纪90年代中期最初估计的中国必须最低增长率为7%而非8%，但现在的正确数据可能更低，因为当初估计数据不仅是基于大量涌入城市的农村人口，还包括为吸收城市大面积失业人员创造的岗位。此外随着出生率降低，每年加入劳动力新军的年轻人也开始减少，农村收入的急剧增加也促使一些人宁愿呆在土地里而非涌向城市。
But even if the 8% rule is no longer based on sound economics, it clearly still carries a lot of weight with government officials. Over the past two months the government has announced a series of measures aimed at sustaining domestic demand. The People’s Bank of China has cut interest rates three times and strict controls on bank lending have been scrapped. Measures to encourage home-buying have also been introduced: the minimum deposit on a mortgage has been cut from 30% to 20%, mortgage rates have been lowered and transaction taxes on homes reduced. A far more important boost, however, will come from the planned surge in infrastructure spending.
即使8%规则不再是基于正确的经济学数据，但对政府官员来说依然是沉重的压力，过去两个月来中国政府宣布了一系列旨在维持内需的措施。中国人民银行三次降低利率，取消严格的贷款控制。同时引入促进买房的措施，最低抵押押金从30%降至20%，贷款利率和房屋交易税均调低。而最重要的推进方针则源于基础设施建设的膨胀。
[ 本帖最后由 krypton 于 2008-11-14 18:41 编辑 ] 继上：
A New Deal, Chinese-style 新政，中国模式
The eye-popping 4 trillion yuan stimulus package unveiled by China’s State Council this week is to be spent over the next two years. It amounts to 14% of this year’s estimated GDP and, in dollar terms, is four times as big as America’s fiscal stimulus earlier this year. The total increase in spending, if genuine, would surely represent the biggest two-year stimulus (outside wartime) by any government in history.
本周，中国常委会通过了一项令人眼球暴跌的4万亿元的刺激计划，这笔资金将在今后两年内使用，占本年预计GDP的14%，按美元计是美国今年早期财政刺激金额的四倍。如果是真实的话，这笔投资将是历史上任一政府投入的两年计划中最大的一笔。
The package includes public works, social welfare and tax reform. The main spending areas are public housing for poor households; infrastructure projects such as railways, roads, airports and the power grid; speeding up rebuilding after the May earthquake; and increased spending on health and education. A reform of the VAT system will allow firms to deduct purchases of fixed assets, reducing companies’ tax bills by an estimated 120 billion yuan (4% of 2007 industrial profits). This should encourage firms to upgrade their capital equipment. The government also plans to boost rural incomes by raising the minimum purchase price of grain as well as increasing subsidies for farmers, and promises plumper social-security benefits for low-income groups.
这笔计划包括公共建设工程，社会福利和税务改革。主要投资领域为为低收入者建设廉价房，基础设施工程如铁路，公路机场和能源设施。加速五月地震重建，加大教育和卫生投资，VAT改革将允许企业减少购买固定资产，企业税务将降低1200亿元（2007年工业利润4%）。这将鼓励企业升级其固定设备。政府同时计划通过提高谷物最低收购价格，增加农业补贴来增加农村收入，同时允诺低收入群体的社保收益。
The snag is that, as yet, there are no details about how exactly the money will be spent. It seems that the deteriorating economic situation panicked the government into rushing out its plans. Certainly previous prudence has left plenty of room for a stimulus: the budget surplus stands at 1-2% of GDP (depending on how you measure it) and total public-sector debt at less than 20% of GDP, one of the smallest of any large economy (see chart 1). In fact, not all the investment will be funded from the government’s budget. A large chunk will be carried out by local government and state-owned enterprises. It will be mandated by the government, but financed by their own revenue, corporate bonds or bank lending.
目前的障碍是，没有仍何细节披露这笔资金将如何使用。恶化的经济形势似乎让政府急于推进计划感到恐慌。先前的谨慎为此刺激计划留以很大余地。预计盈余在GDP1%~2%左右徘徊（取决于如何度量）公共部门债务总额少于GDP20%，这是所有经济大国最小的国家之一（见表一）。事实上，并非所有投资都源于政府预算，很大一部分将有地方政府和国有企业执行。由政府委托，通过企业自有收入，
社团资金或银行贷款筹资。http://media.economist.com/images/20081115/CBB430.gif
Cynics have dismissed the package as much smaller than meets the eye. True, some of the infrastructure investment had already been planned, notably the extension of the rail network and rebuilding after the earthquake. In that sense, it is not really new money. But some of the money that was going to be spent over five years on railways has been brought forward. And the 4 trillion yuan excludes the tax cuts and transfer payments to farmers and the poor.
愤世者表示该资金要比眼见得少得多。的确，一些基础设计划已经开始，特别是铁路网的扩大和灾后重建工程。从这个角度讲，并不算新投入，但是一些五年投入到铁路上的资金计划已经提前。而且四万亿元包括减免税务和对穷人和农民的转拨款项
What matters for the economy is how much higher infrastructure spending will be next year compared with actual spending in 2007 or 2008. Rough estimates suggest that the true increase in investment may be between 5-7% of GDP over the two years to 2010: still an impressive figure.
重要的是明年基础设施建设的投入会比2007年和2008年实际投入多多少。
粗略估计到2010年两年内投资增长可能占GDP5%~7%，这仍然是惊人的数字。
But the most important aspect of the package is that the government seems to have sent a clear message that it will do whatever it takes to maintain growth at close to 8%. The bigger the slowdown, the bigger the likely stimulus. This signal, says Arthur Kroeber, an economist at Dragonomics, a research firm in Beijing, is more important than the exact amount of cash on offer. It could help to restore business and household confidence, and encourage firms to keep investing.
该计划最重要的一面：政府发出明确信号，将采取任何手段维持经济增长率接近8%，衰退越快，刺激越大。北京研究所Dragonomic 的经济学家Arthur Kroeber 表示，这个信号要比究竟投入多少资金重要。这有助于恢复商业和家庭信心，鼓励公司继续投资。
Some commentators have criticised the package for focusing too much on investment (which is already high as a share of GDP in China) rather than spurring consumption through income-tax cuts. But in a country like China, where the saving rate is high and confidence is failing, infrastructure investment is much better at boosting growth than tax cuts or welfare benefits, which would probably be saved rather than spent. In a developing economy infrastructure spending is also less likely to be wasteful than in a rich country like Japan, which built bridges to nowhere during the 1990s in an effort to keep the economy afloat. China plainly needs bridges and railways.
一些评论家批评计划过于集中于投资（已经占GDP很大一部分）而非用于鼓励消费和降低收入税。但像中国这样一个储蓄率高，信心下降的国家，基础设施建设对经济增长的贡献要比减税或社会福利要有效的多，因为这些钱和可能被储蓄起来而非消费掉。对于发展中国家来说基础设施建设不像日本那样的发达国家一样是一种浪费，日本20世纪90年代到处建设桥梁以保持经济增长，中国明显需要更多桥梁和铁路。
But in any case, in contrast to previous fiscal stimuli in China, this package does include some modest measures to boost consumption, such as raising the incomes of farmers and low-income urban households. Increased spending on health and education should also help to reduce households’ worries about how to pay for these services, and so encourage them to save less and spend more.
无论如何，与先前的中国财政刺激相比，这个计划的确包括一些温和刺激消费的的措施如增加农民和城市低收入者的收入。对教育和卫生投入的增加也有助于减少家庭对这些服务投入的担忧，同时鼓励他们少储蓄，多花费。
In the long term China needs to do much more to boost consumption, but the immediate need is to prevent a hard landing. To the extent that the package boosts domestic demand, it could help deliver better-balanced growth. Unfortunately, the government has also increased tax rebates on exports, on which the economy remains far too dependent.
长远看来，中国还要做很多来刺激消费，但阻止经济硬着陆迫在眉睫，从该计划刺激消费的程度看，它有利于经济平稳的增长，不幸的是，政府同时增加该国经济过于依赖的出口退税。
Déjà Hu? 似曾相识
China last adopted a big stimulus package during the Asian financial crisis, when it succeeded in holding annual GDP growth at almost 8%. However, the country now faces a much bigger external shock than it did then. So can it repeat the trick? Tao Wang, an economist with UBS in Beijing, believes it can. Not only is this stimulus package probably larger than that adopted during the Asian crisis, but, argues Ms Wang, the corporate and banking sectors are also in much better shape than ten years ago.
就在中国成功将增长率维持在8%左右，亚洲金融危机时他最终采取的刺激计划。然而该国如今面临比上次更大的外来震荡，她能故伎重施吗？北京UBS经济学家王涛相信她能。王说不仅这次刺激方案比十年前大得多，而且现在的公共和银行部门要比十年前健全的多。
Reutershttp://media.economist.com/images/20081115/4608FB2.jpgKeep growing and keep consuming
[ 本帖最后由 krypton 于 2008-11-14 18:49 编辑 ] 继上：
The Asian financial crisis hit China just as it was making a painful economic adjustment after the bust of a credit boom in the mid-1990s. Huge over-capacity and large losses forced the government to undertake a massive restructuring of state-owned firms. Investment and jobs were savagely cut at the same time as exports stumbled. In 1997-98 state firms made a net loss of almost 1% of GDP; in 2007 their combined profits were over 4% of GDP.
亚洲金融危机袭击中国时中国正经历90年代中期信用低迷后痛苦的经济调整，大量的生产过剩和大面积损失迫使政府进行大面积国有企业重建。同时随着出口下滑，政府削减大量投资和工作岗位，1997年到98年间国有企业损失净值达到GDP1%，2007年他们的总利润超过GDP4%。
The banking sector, too, now looks much healthier. Ten years ago, after the credit binge, banks’ non-performing loans hit 40-50% of their assets. Today the figure is around 6%, and their profits have soared in recent years. Chinese banks have also largely escaped the problems which have paralysed credit markets elsewhere.
银行部门比当时健康，十年前银行不良贷款达到其资产40%~50%，如今只占6%，且其收益今年也暴涨。中国的银行业避免了使其他国家银行陷入瘫痪的问题。
Tight restrictions on bank lending over the past year have now been relaxed. But one risk is that with economic growth and corporate profits faltering, banks may be reluctant to increase their lending for fear of future bad loans. Loans to many property developers are likely to turn sour, but these amount to only 7% of total lending. Most industries still have relatively strong profit margins and low debts by historical standards. China is one of the few countries in the world where total bank lending has fallen relative to GDP over the past five years.
过去几年银行实施的严格限制政策已经松绑，但风险是随着经济增长和公共收益的徘徊，银行可能不愿增加其贷款，以防止今后不良贷款增加，对房地产开发商的贷款可能黄了，但只占总量的7%大部分产业仍然拥有历史标准上强大的收益率和低负债率。
China still has one advantage over most other countries. If necessary, the state-controlled banking system can be directed to increase lending to firms. That would raise long-term concerns about the future quality of banks’ assets, but in the short term it would help to keep the economy ticking. The importance of this, says Ms Wang, is that while fiscal stimulus can jump-start the economy, bank lending is the fuel needed to keep it going.
中国与其他国家相比还具有一个优势，必要情况下国有银行能直接增加企业贷款。这回提高对银行资产的将来品质的担忧，但短期来说，这将保持经济运转。王女士说，重要的是财政刺激是经济引擎，银行贷款则是保持其运转的燃料。
Any analysis of China’s growth prospects is clouded by the widely held belief that the government smoothes its GDP numbers and always overstates growth during economic downturns. Chart 2 plots China’s official growth rate against an alternative estimate calculated by Dragonomics from expenditure data (ie, investment, household spending and exports). This estimate shows much bigger swings than the politically smoothed official numbers.
对中国经济的仍和分析都蒙受由政府平滑GDP数据和经济低迷时期夸大增长率的广泛不信任的疑云。表二绘制中国官方增长率与Dragormics 从消费数据（如投资，房屋消费和出口）估算的增长率数据对比图。估算表明其震荡要比官方数据大得多。
http://media.economist.com/images/20081115/CBB915.gifChina has experienced two major recessions in the past three decades. In 1989, the year of political protests and killings in Tiananmen Square, GDP is estimated to have really fallen by almost 2%, but reported GDP growth stayed above 4%. In 1998-99 Dragonomics reckons that the real growth rate fell below 5%, while reported growth dipped only slightly below 8%.
过去三十年中中国面临三次主要衰退，1989年，即政治风波和天安门屠杀那年GDP增长估计降至2%，报道数据为4%， 98~99年Dragonomics估计真实增长率低于5%，而报道增长率稍稍低于8%。
It is possible that reported GDP growth figures will once again be massaged if the economy continues to slide. But perhaps this time China can genuinely avoid a hard landing: the underlying economy, while far from perfect, is in better shape, and the government has more room to boost its spending.
如果经济继续下滑，报道的GDP增长可能还会受到更改。但中国这次可能真能避免硬着陆。潜在的经济虽距完美还远，但却状态良好，同时政府也有更广的空间推进消费。
The investment stimulus won’t work its magic overnight; it takes time to get projects started. So GDP growth could well drop below 7% in the first half of next year as exports and housing investment weaken. But most economists think the stimulus package will be enough to keep growth at 7.5-8% for the year as a whole. If so, of the world’s eight biggest economies, China will be the only one to enjoy any growth next year; most forecasters expect all the others to contract. Indeed, the IMF’s latest forecast of 8.5% GDP growth implies that China will account for almost half of all the increase in world output next year.
刺激计划不会当时奏效，工程投入需要时间，所以随着房地产投资和出口减弱，明年前半年的增长率可能下降至低于7%，但大部分经济学家认为刺激计划足够使经济增长保持在7.5%~8%，如此，中国将是世上任何经济大国唯一具有经济增长率的国家。大部分预报员期望其他国家定约。事实上，IMF最新预计8.5%的增长率表示中国明年将占世界产值增长的一半。
The rising yuan升值的人民币
China’s fiscal stimulus was announced less than a week before President Hu Jintao was due to arrive in Washington for the G20 summit of world leaders, which will discuss ways to revive global growth (see article). Normally at international meetings China is accused of two things: its economy is too dependent on exports, while domestic spending is too feeble; and the yuan is grossly undervalued. Mr Hu will now be able to argue that China is doing its best to support domestic demand.
中国的刺激计划在国家主席胡景涛计划前往华盛顿参加讨论复苏全球经济的20国峰会前一个星期宣布的。通常国际会议上中国应两件事受指责，其经济增长过于依靠出口，而国内消费微弱；人民币过于低估。胡锦涛现在能说中国已经尽其最大努力来促进国内消费了。
http://media.economist.com/images/20081115/CBB448.gif
However many foreign officials, including America’s president-elect, still complain that China is holding down the yuan to keep its exports competitive. It is true that China seems to have abandoned its previous policy of allowing the yuan steadily to rise against the dollar: it has barely budged over the past four months. But since the dollar has strengthened dramatically of late, the yuan has surged against other currencies such as the euro, sterling and most emerging market currencies. Indeed, in trade-weighted terms, against a basket of currencies, it has risen by 12% over the past six months. Since July 2005, when China scrapped its fixed peg to the dollar, the yuan’s trade-weighted value has risen by 20%, by far the biggest appreciation of any large economy (see chart 3). The strength of its exports suggests that the yuan may still be undervalued. But foreign governments can no longer accuse China of refusing to allow its currency to rise.
但很多国外官员，包括美国新当选总统仍会抱怨中国压制人民币已保持其出口的竞争力，中国似乎放弃了先前允许人民币对美元稳定升值的政策，过去四个月来几乎没有变化。但最近美元突然强势，人民币
对其他货币如欧元，英国货币和其他新兴市场货币的汇率暴涨。确实，从贸易权衡上计，对于众多货币，人民币在过去6个月增长12%。2005年七月中国放弃人民币与美元挂钩的政策以来，人民币贸易权衡价值已经上涨20%目前所有经济大国增值最大的一个。其强劲的出口说明人民币仍然被低估，但国外政府不能在指控中国拒绝允许其货币升值了。
Although China’s planned fiscal expansion is still vague, it promises, if it is implemented and it works, to save the economy from a hard landing. And if stronger domestic demand sucks in more imports of raw materials and infrastructure-building machinery, that is the best way China can help the rest of the world.
虽然中国计划的财政扩张仍然模糊，但如果实施并奏效，将保证其经济避免硬着陆。如果更强的内需吸收更多进口原材料和基础设施建设机械，这将是中国帮助世界的最好办法。
[ 本帖最后由 krypton 于 2008-11-14 18:54 编辑 ] 翻的我眼睛都花了，没检查就发上来了，各位帮我查查错！ 没看完。不发表意见。看完再来说 看完，4万亿元的刺激计划体现了社会主义的优越性~ 谢谢楼主分享，辛苦了Q20) 楼主辛苦了，谢谢！鲜花！o3O118) 好文，楼主辛苦了 楼主辛苦Q52)
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