[08.11.13基督箴言报] 经济危机漫延，G20国家领导关注迅时救援
经济危机继续漫延，G－20国家领导关注迅时救援http://anti-cnn.com/forum/cn/plugins/copy/template/copy.gif【原文标题】with crisis spreading,G-20 leaders eyes quick relief
【中文标题】经济危机继续漫延，G－20国家领导关注迅时救援
【登载媒体】基督箴言报
【来源地址】http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1114/p02s01-usec.html
【译者】Gwen
【声明】本翻译仅供Anti-CNN使用，如需转载请注明译者及本站链接，谢谢！
【原文】
With crisis spreading, G-20 leaders eye quick relief
经济危机漫延，20国领导关注迅时救济
A meeting of world leaders this week probably won't reach any grand conclusions about how to fix a broken financial system, but it could result in some immediate relief – possibly new commitments to stimulate faltering global growth.
The need now appears urgent, economists say.
A year ago the financial crisis was US-centered and associated with fallout from a housing downturn. Today it is global. Some European nations appear more vulnerable than the United States, and growth in Asia is sputtering.
The so-called G-20 nations, representing most of the world's economy and population, are convening with the knowledge that they will sink or swim together. What happens in one nation quickly ripples to affect others.
"All countries are moving into a new danger zone with heightened risks to exports and investment budgets," World Bank President Robert Zoellick said last weekend. "We need to make sure that the financial crisis doesn't become a human crisis."
In fact, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a sibling of the World Bank, has put out a new forecast that for the first time since World War II, the advanced nations of the world would all be in recession next year, with economic activity shrinking collectively by 0.3 percent.
Although the focus is on how advanced nations can steer back on course for growth, Mr. Zoellick says the threat of a humanitarian crisis centers on the poorest nations, which may be caught up in the storm. On Tuesday, he announced that the World Bank would boost financial support for developing countries, with as much as $100 billion in new loans over the next three years.
That move may set the stage for more actions Nov. 14-15 as President Bush hosts the G-20 leaders. The Group of 20 includes the Group of Seven advanced economies (Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the US) plus fast-growing emerging nations, including China and Brazil.
Already in recent weeks, central banks worldwide have been cutting interest rates to try to offset the global slump. And many nations have pledged to inject capital into banks and provide new guarantees for loans in order to restore faltering confidence in the financial system. A next logical step, many economists agree, is a large and concerted provision of fiscal stimulus by governments around the world.
In recent days, China has announced a large stimulus package including money for construction projects and assistance for the poor. The US Congress is also working on its own new stimulus efforts. European Union nations are moving down this track as well.
Simon Johnson, an economist at the MIT Sloan School of Management in Cambridge, Mass., says the best-case outcome for the G-20 meeting would be large and coordinated stimulus pledges, plus new money for the IMF to help emerging-market nations avoid their own credit crises. "We're in a big global recession, and it won't get any better" without coordinated action, says Mr. Johnson, a former IMF chief economist.
But Europe has fallen behind the US in responding to the crisis, he says, and the question is whether the G-20 meeting will achieve big enough results. "They'll do a bit, it won't be big enough," Johnson predicts.
The meeting will also help to set the stage for future work on how to improve global regulation of the financial system.
In a press briefing Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said America doesn't bear all the blame for the world's economic troubles. With scores of nations relying on an export-oriented strategy for economic growth, the result is an imbalanced world economy, he said.
Many economists agree: An imperative is not just for sounder bank regulation, but for a world economy where fewer nations rely on the US as the big consumer.
经济危机漫延，20国领导关注迅时救济
这周聚焦世界各国领导的会议不会得到任何有关杂乱的经济体系的重要解决方案，但是这个会议会得出一些临时救济方案——也许是为刺激松软的全球经济的新承诺。
这种需要是现在看来是非常迫切的，一位经济学家说到。
一年前，这个经济危机只限于美国国内，是由美国低迷的房产所引起的。现在，却是全球性的了。一些欧洲国家似乎经美国更受打击，在亚洲国家的影响也是迅增。
号称20国组织，代表全世界里有最经济能力和最多人口的20个国家，知道他们这次必须同舟共济而聚集在一起。在一个国家发生的小事情会对另一个国家造成影响。
“随着出口和投资预算危险的增加，所有的国家都正在向一个新的危险区移进。”世界银行总裁罗伯特 佐利克在上星期说到。“我们需要这场经济危机不会演变成一场人类危机。”
事实上，国际货币基金组织，世界银行的姊妹，在第二次世界大战之后首次做出了预言。由于世界经济总共会缩水0.3%，世界发达国家将会在明年全部进入经济衰退期。
尽管我们都在关注发达国家如何扭转乾坤，佐利克说到，而人道主义危机将会集中在贫困国家，而这些国家也将会被卷入这场风暴中。在周三，他宣布世界银行将会加大对发展中国家的经济援助，将会在三年内再多贷1000亿美元给这些国家。
这个活动为布什11月14号至15号的主持的20国会议铺平了道路。这20国包括7国发达国家（英国，加拿大，法国，德国，意大利，日本和美国）另外还有快速发展的新崛起的国家，包括中国和巴西。
已经在最近几周，世界范围内的中央银行已经开始降息来应对全球经济衰退。许多国已经许诺将注资银行而且为贷款做出新的保证来对经济系统恢复摇摇欲坠的信心。
最近，中国已经宣布了一项庞大的刺激计划，这个计划包括建设项目和救援贫困者。美国国会也正在筹划他们的刺激计划。欧盟国家也正在向此方向行进。
西蒙 约翰逊，剑桥大学里麻省理工大学斯隆商学院的一位经济学家，马斯说20国会议的最好结果就是大型，协调的刺激计划，增加在国际货币基金组织的注资来帮助某些国家的新兴市场防止他们自己国家的信贷危机。“我们正在全球经济衰退期，没有协调的救市行动，它是不可能会变好的”，前国际货币基金组织主要经济家约翰逊说到。
“但是欧洲国家比美国应对这场危机晚些，”他说，“问题是20国会议能否达成有足够影响力的结果。”“它会达成一些，但不会很有影响力。”约翰逊预测到。
这场会议同样也能帮助到以后工作铺好路如何改善经济体系中的全球规则。
在周三的简易记者会上，美国财政部长享利 保森说到美国不能忍受全世界经济问题都在指责美国。由于那些靠出口政策来获得经济增长的国家财政，其导致不平衡的世界经济，他说。
许多经济学家同意到：制定一个规则不仅是为了很更健全的世界体系，同时也那些少以美国民众作为大消费者的世界经济。
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