【2008.11.13 英国 经济学家】中国经济-再次让龙腾飞
China's economy中国经济
Reflating the dragon
Nov 13th 2008 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition
再次让龙腾飞 2008年11月13日 北京
Can the world’s fastest-growing economy avoid a sharp downturn?
世界增长最快的经济体能否避免急速下滑？
WHEN Deng Xiaoping set China on the road of economic reforms in 1978, Western economists argued that “Only capitalism can save China.” Exactly 30 years later, some pundits are claiming that “Only China can save capitalism.” Most rich economies are now facing recession. But if China, the world’s third-biggest economy, can manage to sustain reasonably robust growth, it will help to cushion global output. A massive stimulus package of 4 trillion yuan (nearly $600 billion) announced by the government on November 9th was therefore widely cheered at home and abroad. Will it be enough to re-stoke the dragon’s fire?
当邓小平1978年把中国领上经济改革之路时，西方的经济学家们曾声称“只有资本主义才能拯救中国。”整整30年后的今天，一些经济权威却声称“只有中国才能拯救资本主义。”当前，大多主要经济体面临衰退。但如果世界第三大经济体中国能够保持足够增长的话，将会缓解全球产出衰减。也正因此，中国政府于11月9日宣布的高达4万亿元（约6000亿美元）的经济刺激计划得到了国内外一致好评。但这项计划是否能够给“龙之火”提供充足的“燃料”？
After growing by an annual average of over 10% over the past five years, China’s economy has suddenly cooled more quickly than expected. GDP growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter, from 11.9% in 2007. That still sounds pretty impressive, but other indicators suggest weaker times ahead. Construction, steel demand, electricity consumption, car sales and air travel have all been falling in recent months. Industrial production grew by only 8.2% in the year to October, less than half its pace a year ago and its slowest for seven years. Share prices have slumped by 70% from their peak and house prices have started to drop. Property sales are running 40-50% lower than a year ago. Unsurprisingly, surveys show that consumer and business confidence is cracking.
经济增长年均超过10%持续五年之后的今天，中国经济冷却速度超过预期。今年第三季度GDP增长率减至9%，2007年同期为11.9%。这样的增长率仍相当抢眼，但其他数据意味着今后增长会进一步趋弱。最近几个月，建筑、钢铁、电力、汽车及航空等行业增长均已回落。今年十月工业产出增长仅8.2%，比去年同期的一半还低，创七年来之最。与其高峰期相比股市已缩水70%，房价也已开始下跌。地产销售比去年下降40-50%。不出意料的是，各项调查显示消费和经济信心也在变弱。
China’s slowdown only partly reflects weaker exports as the world economy sags. Some of it is home-grown, caused by a deliberate tightening of monetary policy to curb inflation and an overheated property market. Indeed, export growth has held up surprisingly well. In the first ten months of this year exports were 21% higher in dollar terms than a year ago, compared with growth of 26% in 2007. They have slowed more sharply in real terms, but were still up by 13% in the year to the third quarter.
世界经济萎靡导致的出口减弱仅是中国经济增长放缓的部分原因。增长的放缓也有其内生性，部分源于为了控制通胀、防止地产过热而实施的过紧的货币政策。事实也是如此，出口增长出人意料的坚挺。以美元计算，今年前十个月出口同比增长21%，2007年同期增长为26%。而出口的实际增长率要低得多，但今年第三季度仍增长了13%。
Guangdong province, in southern China, has been hit hardest. Thousands of firms making shoes, toys and clothing have been forced to close this year, partly as a result of a new labour law that has lifted wage costs, as well as weaker foreign sales. According to local newspaper reports, half of China’s toymakers and one-third of its shoe firms have disappeared this year. Yet toys and shoes now account for less than 5% of China’s total exports. Exports of machinery and transport equipment (almost half of the total) are still rising at an annual rate of more than 20% in volume terms.
受影响最大的是中国南方的广东省。成千上万的鞋类、玩具类及服装类工厂被迫关闭。部分原因源于导致用工成本上升的新劳动法，而外销疲软也是原因之一。据当地报纸报道，今年中国已有一半的玩具厂商和三分之一的鞋类公司倒闭。但当前玩具类和鞋类出口占中国总出口不到5%。而机械和运输设备出口（几乎占总出口的一半）仍在增长，按货物量计算年增长率超过20%。
The doom and gloom in Guangdong may be overdone. Many small factories close every year as a result of consolidation. Others have moved to cheaper parts of the country. The trouble of many firms in low-value sectors, such as toys and shoes, partly reflects China’s success in moving up into higher-value industries, which has pushed up wages.
广东恶化的状况可能被夸大了。由于公司之间的整合，每年都有很多小型工厂关闭。有些会搬到其他成本低的地区。像玩具类、鞋类等低附加值行业很多公司的困难状况正部分地反映了中国向高附加值行业转型的成功，同时这也推高了工资水平。
Across China, companies report that foreign orders have shrunk sharply over the past couple of months as the developed world has slipped into recession. Some economists reckon that next year China’s exports may see no growth (in dollar terms) for the first time in more than 25 years. Imports are also slowing sharply, reflecting the high import content of many Chinese exports. Even so, UBS, a bank, forecasts that in 2009 net exports will be a negative drag on GDP growth. In 2007, net exports contributed almost three percentage points of the 12% increase in GDP.
随着发达国家进入衰退期，中国大江南北很多公司称过去几个月里国外订单急剧下降。一些经济学家预计明年中国出口可能25年来首次不会有增长（以美元计）。目前进口也在放缓，这也反映了中国很多进口、加工、再出口的经济现实。事实也是如此，UBS银行预计2009年净出口将会是GDP增长的一个负性因素。2007年，净出口为当年12%的GDP增长率贡献了约三个百分点。
Dismal export prospects will also depress manufacturing investment next year. Residential property construction is likely to continue to fall at least until mid-year, which, in turn, will reduce demand in industries such as steel and cement. However, China’s housing bust is not as serious as those in many developed economies. Although too many luxury homes were built in some cities, there is no massive oversupply at the national level, and urbanisation and rising incomes will continue to support demand for housing.
惨淡的出口预期将会降低明年的制造业投资。房产投资也会继续回落，至少会持续到明年年中，这反过来会减少对钢铁、水泥等行业的需求。尽管如此，中国的房产行业不会像很多发达国家那样糟糕。尽管很多城市建造了太多的豪宅，但从全国范围来看，供过于求的状况不是很严重。而且城市化和收入的增长将会继续支撑房产需求。
One bright light amid the darkness is retail sales, which rose by 17% in real terms in the year to October. Some sectors, such as furniture and household electronics, are feeling the pinch from the property downturn, but overall spending is expected to remain brisk next year, thanks to rising incomes and households’ low level of debt. Over the past year real incomes have risen by 10% in urban areas and 14% in the countryside. A fall in house prices will hurt Chinese consumers much less than their American counterparts, because Chinese households are not up to their necks in debt. Total household debt (including mortgages) amounts to only 13% of GDP, against 100% in America. During America’s boom, it was easy to get a mortgage for 100% or more of the value of a home, but Chinese buyers have had to put down a minimum deposit of 30%.
黑暗中的一线光亮在零售业，今年十月零售业实际增长17%。由于地产行业的下行，像家具和家电等行业感到了些许困难。但由于收入增长和家庭债务水平较低，总体消费明年会继续向好。过去一年里，城镇居民实际收入上升了10%，农村居民的上升了14%。对于中国消费者来说，房价的下降给他们带来的损失比给美国消费者带来的损失要小得多，因为中国居民不像美国居民那样债台高筑。中国居民债务总额（包括抵押贷款）仅占GDP的13%，而美国的是100%。经济繁荣期，在美国很容获得100%的甚至高于房产价值的抵押贷款，但在中国，购房者必须预先支付至少30%的资金。
Adding net exports, business investment, construction and consumption together, China’s growth next year would probably drop to less than 6% without any government help—its slowest rate for almost two decades. Most countries would still be happy with such a figure, but it has become an article of faith in China that output needs to grow by at least 8% a year to create enough jobs for the millions of rural Chinese moving to cities. Growth of less than 8%, it is claimed, will lead to rising unemployment and social unrest.
综合考虑净出口、投资、建筑和消费等因素，如果没有政府帮助，明年中国的经济增长将很可能降至6%以下，这几乎是二十年来的最低增速。如果拥有这样的增速，多数国家会感到高兴。但对于中国来讲，年增长至少要8%才足以给千千万万的涌向城市的农民创造足够的工作机会，这几乎已经成了一种承诺一种信念。据说，如果增速低于8%的话，将会导致失业上升和社会不安。
In fact, the original estimate for China’s required minimum rate of growth, which was made in the mid-1990s, was 7%, not 8%. And the correct figure is now probably lower, because the original estimate was based not only on the flood of people out of the countryside, but also on the number of new jobs that were needed to absorb massive lay-offs by state firms. In addition, the number of young people joining the labour force each year has fallen with the birth rate, and a spurt in rural incomes in recent years has encouraged some to stay on the farm rather than move to the city.
实际上，最初中国于九十年代中期确定的所需最低增速是7%，而不是8%。当前，合理的最低所需增速可能会更低，因为最初的数值估计不仅考虑到民工潮，而且也考虑到要为大量的国有企业下岗职工创造足够多的新岗位。此外，每年加入劳动力大军的年轻人数量随着生育率的降低也已下降。并且，近年来农村地区收入的增长也使得一些人更愿意留守农田而不是移居城市。
But even if the 8% rule is no longer based on sound economics, it clearly still carries a lot of weight with government officials. Over the past two months the government has announced a series of measures aimed at sustaining domestic demand. The People’s Bank of China has cut interest rates three times and strict controls on bank lending have been scrapped. Measures to encourage home-buying have also been introduced: the minimum deposit on a mortgage has been cut from 30% to 20%, mortgage rates have been lowered and transaction taxes on homes reduced. A far more important boost, however, will come from the planned surge in infrastructure spending.
但是，尽管8%这个数值不是基于科学的经济数据，但对于政府官员来说它仍承载着相当的分量。过去的两个月里，政府已经宣布了一系列旨在支撑国内需求的措施。中国人民银行三次调低利率，银行放贷的严格措施取消了。一些鼓励买房的措施也已实施：抵押贷款最低比例从30%降到了20%，抵押贷款利率调低了，房产交易税也降低了。而最重要的增长因素将源于基础设施的大量投资。
A New Deal, Chinese-style
一个新的计划，具有中国特色
The eye-popping 4 trillion yuan stimulus package unveiled by China’s State Council this week is to be spent over the next two years. It amounts to 14% of this year’s estimated GDP and, in dollar terms, is four times as big as America’s fiscal stimulus earlier this year. The total increase in spending, if genuine, would surely represent the biggest two-year stimulus (outside wartime) by any government in history.
本周中国国务院宣布的那项巨额高达四万亿元的经济刺激计划将在今后的两年内实施。那个数额相当今年预计GDP的14%，若以美元计，将四倍于美国今年早些时候实施的财政刺激计划。如果真正实施的话，消费总体增长将肯定会创任一政府（战时政府除外）刺激计划之最。
The package includes public works, social welfare and tax reform. The main spending areas are public housing for poor households; infrastructure projects such as railways, roads, airports and the power grid; speeding up rebuilding after the May earthquake; and increased spending on health and education. A reform of the VAT system will allow firms to deduct purchases of fixed assets, reducing companies’ tax bills by an estimated 120 billion yuan (4% of 2007 industrial profits). This should encourage firms to upgrade their capital equipment. The government also plans to boost rural incomes by raising the minimum purchase price of grain as well as increasing subsidies for farmers, and promises plumper social-security benefits for low-income groups.
计划方案包括公共设施、社会福利和税费改革。主要支出领域是低收入家庭住房保障，基础设施建设如铁路、公路、机场和电站，地震灾后重建，以及健康和教育支出增长。增值税改革将允许企业扣减固定资产支出，预计将会减少企业税收1200亿元（相当于2007年工业企业利润的4%）。这些将会鼓励企业进行资本设备升级。政府也通过提高粮食最低收购价、增加农业补助等措施来提高农民收入，并承诺提高低收入群体的社会保险福利。
The snag is that, as yet, there are no details about how exactly the money will be spent. It seems that the deteriorating economic situation panicked the government into rushing out its plans. Certainly previous prudence has left plenty of room for a stimulus: the budget surplus stands at 1-2% of GDP (depending on how you measure it) and total public-sector debt at less than 20% of GDP, one of the smallest of any large economy (see chart 1). In fact, not all the investment will be funded from the government’s budget. A large chunk will be carried out by local government and state-owned enterprises. It will be mandated by the government, but financed by their own revenue, corporate bonds or bank lending.
和以往一样，政府的这次计划有着同样的弊病：关于资金具体会如何花费，没有任何明细说明。让人觉得这项计划是恶化的经济状况迫使政府草草作出的。可以确定的是，之前的谨慎之策给政府实施经济刺激计划留下了大量的运作空间：财政盈余占GDP的1%-2%（具体数值取决于不同的测算方法），公共债务总额不到GDP的20%，这是所有经济大国中的最小比例之一（见图一）。实际上，并不是所有的投资都来源于中央政府。其中一大块将会来自地方政府和国有企业，这些资金的运用将会听命于中央政府，但却来自地方政府、公司债券或银行贷款。
Cynics have dismissed the package as much smaller than meets the eye. True, some of the infrastructure investment had already been planned, notably the extension of the rail network and rebuilding after the earthquake. In that sense, it is not really new money. But some of the money that was going to be spent over five years on railways has been brought forward. And the 4 trillion yuan excludes the tax cuts and transfer payments to farmers and the poor.
怀疑论者早已确定实际数额没有人们看到的那么大。确实，部分基础设施投资早已被列入有关计划之中，主要的如铁路网扩展和震后重建。从这个角度看，那部分确实不是新的投资。但跨度五年用于铁路网建设的部分投资已经被提前实施。而且那4万亿元也没包括减少的税收和对农民与低收入者的转移支付。
What matters for the economy is how much higher infrastructure spending will be next year compared with actual spending in 2007 or 2008. Rough estimates suggest that the true increase in investment may be between 5-7% of GDP over the two years to 2010: still an impressive figure.
对于当前经济，关键的问题是与2007或2008年相比，明年的基础设施投资将会增长对少。粗略的估计是，到2010年两年间，实际投资增长可能会在GDP的5%-7%之间：数值相当可观。
But the most important aspect of the package is that the government seems to have sent a clear message that it will do whatever it takes to maintain growth at close to 8%. The bigger the slowdown, the bigger the likely stimulus. This signal, says Arthur Kroeber, an economist at Dragonomics, a research firm in Beijing, is more important than the exact amount of cash on offer. It could help to restore business and household confidence, and encourage firms to keep investing.
但这次经济计划最重要的一点在于政府似乎已发出明确信息：将会不遗余力保持8%的经济增长率。放缓速度越大，经济刺激方案就越大。北京“龙经济学”（Dragonomics）研究机构的一位经济学家安瑟尔-克罗博表示：相较于经济计划的具体数值，这个信息更为重要。它有助于恢复经济和消费信心，有助于鼓励企业继续投资。
Some commentators have criticised the package for focusing too much on investment (which is already high as a share of GDP in China) rather than spurring consumption through income-tax cuts. But in a country like China, where the saving rate is high and confidence is failing, infrastructure investment is much better at boosting growth than tax cuts or welfare benefits, which would probably be saved rather than spent. In a developing economy infrastructure spending is also less likely to be wasteful than in a rich country like Japan, which built bridges to nowhere during the 1990s in an effort to keep the economy afloat. China plainly needs bridges and railways.
一些评论家已经对该计划过多集中于投资（投资占中国GDP的比例已经很高）而不是通过降低所得税来刺激消费提出了批评。但像中国这样高储蓄且信心趋弱的国家，为了刺激经济增长，基础设施投资显然比减税或增加福利有效得多。如果减税或增加福利的话，那些资金很可能会变成储蓄而不会用于消费。相较于发达国家，对于一个发展中经济体，基础设施投资被浪费的可能性比较低。发达国家如日本，九十年代为了保持经济增长到处修桥修路，就导致了浪费。而中国显然需要更多的路、桥和铁路。
But in any case, in contrast to previous fiscal stimuli in China, this package does include some modest measures to boost consumption, such as raising the incomes of farmers and low-income urban households. Increased spending on health and education should also help to reduce households’ worries about how to pay for these services, and so encourage them to save less and spend more.
但不管怎样，与之前中国实施的财政刺激计划相比，此次计划确实包括了一些相应的措施来拉动消费，如提高农民和城镇低收入家庭的收入。卫生和教育方面支出的增长也有助于降低人们对这些方面的担心，进而鼓励他们少些储蓄、多些消费。
In the long term China needs to do much more to boost consumption, but the immediate need is to prevent a hard landing. To the extent that the package boosts domestic demand, it could help deliver better-balanced growth. Unfortunately, the government has also increased tax rebates on exports, on which the economy remains far too dependent.
长期来看，在拉动消费方面，中国需有更多作为，但当前急需的是防止硬着陆。从此次计划拉动内需的作用来看，它有利于均衡增长。但另一方面，不幸的是政府也提高了出口退税。中国经济的外贸依存度已经太高了。
Déjà Hu?
期待胡有新作为？
China last adopted a big stimulus package during the Asian financial crisis, when it succeeded in holding annual GDP growth at almost 8%. However, the country now faces a much bigger external shock than it did then. So can it repeat the trick? Tao Wang, an economist with UBS in Beijing, believes it can. Not only is this stimulus package probably larger than that adopted during the Asian crisis, but, argues Ms Wang, the corporate and banking sectors are also in much better shape than ten years ago.
亚洲金融危机期间，中国也实施了一项巨大的刺激计划，并成功保持GDP年增长约8%。但与上次相比，中国现在面临更大的外部挑战。因此这次中国还能成功如愿么？北京UBS的一位名叫王涛（音译）的经济学家认为中国能。他认为，不仅这次刺激计划比亚洲金融危机那次大得多，而且与十年前相比，公司和银行状况也好得多。
The Asian financial crisis hit China just as it was making a painful economic adjustment after the bust of a credit boom in the mid-1990s. Huge over-capacity and large losses forced the government to undertake a massive restructuring of state-owned firms. Investment and jobs were savagely cut at the same time as exports stumbled. In 1997-98 state firms made a net loss of almost 1% of GDP; in 2007 their combined profits were over 4% of GDP.
亚洲金融危机降临的时候，中国正处于九十年代中期信贷暴涨后艰难的经济调整期。产能严重过剩以及巨大亏损使得政府对国有企业进行了大规模重组。投资巨额减少，公司大量裁员，出口严重衰退。在1997-98期间，国有企业净亏损几乎占GDP的1%，而2007年，国有企业总利润超过GDP的4%。
The banking sector, too, now looks much healthier. Ten years ago, after the credit binge, banks’ non-performing loans hit 40-50% of their assets. Today the figure is around 6%, and their profits have soared in recent years. Chinese banks have also largely escaped the problems which have paralysed credit markets elsewhere.
同样银行业现在也健康多了。十年前，在疯狂放贷之后银行不良贷款占总资产的40-50%。现在，不良贷款比例约6%，而且近几年银行业利润持续飙升。中国的银行也大都逃过了导致世界其他信贷市场瘫痪的问题。
Tight restrictions on bank lending over the past year have now been relaxed. But one risk is that with economic growth and corporate profits faltering, banks may be reluctant to increase their lending for fear of future bad loans. Loans to many property developers are likely to turn sour, but these amount to only 7% of total lending. Most industries still have relatively strong profit margins and low debts by historical standards. China is one of the few countries in the world where total bank lending has fallen relative to GDP over the past five years.
过去一年间对银行放贷的严格限制措施现在已经松绑了。但风险在于，随着经济放缓以及公司盈利降低，银行可能会由于担心未来坏账产生而不愿增加放贷。对房产开发商的贷款前景可能不怎么乐观，但这些仅占贷款总额的7%。与以往相比，大多行业仍保持着较高的盈利水平和较低的债务水平。中国是世界上少数几个过去五年间与GDP相比银行贷款总额下降的国家之一。
China still has one advantage over most other countries. If necessary, the state-controlled banking system can be directed to increase lending to firms. That would raise long-term concerns about the future quality of banks’ assets, but in the short term it would help to keep the economy ticking. The importance of this, says Ms Wang, is that while fiscal stimulus can jump-start the economy, bank lending is the fuel needed to keep it going.
与其他国家相比，中国还有一个有利因素。必要的话，国家控制的银行系统可以对公司增加贷款。那样做长期来说将会增加对银行业未来资产的担忧，但就短期来看却有助于经济前行。关于此王女士说财政刺激可以为经济提供快速启动的动力，而银行贷款可以为经济提供持续前行的动力。
Any analysis of China’s growth prospects is clouded by the widely held belief that the government smoothes its GDP numbers and always overstates growth during economic downturns. Chart 2 plots China’s official growth rate against an alternative estimate calculated by Dragonomics from expenditure data (ie, investment, household spending and exports). This estimate shows much bigger swings than the politically smoothed official numbers.
很多人认为在经济下行期间，中国政府会在GDP数字上做动作并夸大经济增长。这样也就给中国经济增长预测蒙上了阴影。图表2显示了中国官方经济增长率与“龙经济学”（Dragonomics）研究机构根据支出数据（指投资、消费和出口）估算的经济增长率之间的对比。估算数据比官方数据显现了更大的波动性。
China has experienced two major recessions in the past three decades. In 1989, the year of political protests and killings in Tiananmen Square, GDP is estimated to have really fallen by almost 2%, but reported GDP growth stayed above 4%. In 1998-99 Dragonomics reckons that the real growth rate fell below 5%, while reported growth dipped only slightly below 8%.
过去三十年间中国经济经历了两次比较大的波动。在1989年，也就是发生政治游行和天安门事件那年，GDP预计实际会降低2%，但报告的GDP增长率超过4%。在1998-99期间，“龙经济学”（Dragonomics）预计实际增长率会低于5%，而报告的增长率稍微低于8%。
It is possible that reported GDP growth figures will once again be massaged if the economy continues to slide. But perhaps this time China can genuinely avoid a hard landing: the underlying economy, while far from perfect, is in better shape, and the government has more room to boost its spending.
如果经济继续下滑，很可能报告的GDP增长数值将会再次被“修正”。但很可能这次中国能够真正地避免硬着陆：尽管经济基本面远没有达到完美的程度，但还是比以前好多了，而且在支出方面政府也有更大的运作空间。
The investment stimulus won’t work its magic overnight; it takes time to get projects started. So GDP growth could well drop below 7% in the first half of next year as exports and housing investment weaken. But most economists think the stimulus package will be enough to keep growth at 7.5-8% for the year as a whole. If so, of the world’s eight biggest economies, China will be the only one to enjoy any growth next year; most forecasters expect all the others to contract. Indeed, the IMF’s latest forecast of 8.5% GDP growth implies that China will account for almost half of all the increase in world output next year.
经济刺激计划的威力不会一夜之间就显现出来；各个项目的启动需要时间。因此随着出口和地产业投资进一步趋弱，明年上半年GDP增长可能会降至7%以下。但多数经济学家认为该项刺激计划将足以保持明年总的经济增长率在7.5-8%。如果真是这样，那么在世界八大经济体中，中国将是明年唯一一个保持增长的经济体。多数经济学家预计所有其他经济体将会衰退。确实，IMF最近预测的8.5%的GDP增长率预示着中国经济明年的增长将几乎占全球增长的一半。
The rising yuan
不断升值的人民币
China’s fiscal stimulus was announced less than a week before President Hu Jintao was due to arrive in Washington for the G20 summit of world leaders, which will discuss ways to revive global growth (see article). Normally at international meetings China is accused of two things: its economy is too dependent on exports, while domestic spending is too feeble; and the yuan is grossly undervalued. Mr Hu will now be able to argue that China is doing its best to support domestic demand.
中国财政刺激计划宣布不到一周后，胡锦涛主席将出席华盛顿G20世界领导人峰会。会上领导们将会探讨全球增长复苏之策。一般情况下在国际会议上关于两个问题中国会被指责：中国经济外贸依存度太大而国内消费微弱；人民币被严重低估。而现在胡先生这次可以名正言顺地说中国在拉动国内需求方面是不遗余力的。
However many foreign officials, including America’s president-elect, still complain that China is holding down the yuan to keep its exports competitive. It is true that China seems to have abandoned its previous policy of allowing the yuan steadily to rise against the dollar: it has barely budged over the past four months. But since the dollar has strengthened dramatically of late, the yuan has surged against other currencies such as the euro, sterling and most emerging market currencies. Indeed, in trade-weighted terms, against a basket of currencies, it has risen by 12% over the past six months. Since July 2005, when China scrapped its fixed peg to the dollar, the yuan’s trade-weighted value has risen by 20%, by far the biggest appreciation of any large economy (see chart 3). The strength of its exports suggests that the yuan may still be undervalued. But foreign governments can no longer accuse China of refusing to allow its currency to rise.
不管怎样很多外国官员，包括美国的新当选总统仍抱怨中国压低了人民币以保持出口竞争力。而事实是中国似乎已经放弃了先前允许人民币对美元持续升值的政策：过去四个月里几乎没什么变化。但最近由于美元表现坚挺，相对其他货币如欧元、英镑及大多其他新兴市场货币，人民币也大幅升值。确实，从贸易角度看，相对于一揽子货币来说过去六个月里人民币已经上升了12%。自2005年七月中国放弃盯住美元以来，从贸易角度看人民币已经上升了20%，比其他任何经济大国的都大得多（见图表3）。中国出口的强劲表明人民币仍被低估了。但外国政府不能再指责中国拒绝其货币升值了。
Although China’s planned fiscal expansion is still vague, it promises, if it is implemented and it works, to save the economy from a hard landing. And if stronger domestic demand sucks in more imports of raw materials and infrastructure-building machinery, that is the best way China can help the rest of the world.
尽管中国所安排的财政扩大计划仍很模糊，但如果实施且奏效的话，将会防止经济硬着陆。而且，如果更强的内部需求可以带来更多原材料和基础设施建设机械进口的话，这将是中国帮助世界的最好方法。
搞了一宿，累死了。。。:)
[ 本帖最后由 kevinhenan 于 2008-11-16 10:42 编辑 ] 支持楼主，翻译得非常好！！谢谢！ 呵呵!不懂这个! 文章真是长，楼主辛苦了！
我的收藏夹满了，只要用回复来留印记录楼主的文章。不要嫌我是灌水啊！呵呵 贴子不错，支持一下！！！ 恩，，慢慢看
楼主翻译得确实不错。
Q20) 文章真是长，楼主辛苦了！ LL辛苦啦 ~~~呵呵
好长啊~~~~
冗长的文章，简短的总结！
这篇文章真的很冗余拖沓，耐着性子才把它翻译了过来。但经济学家毕竟是经济学家，在这样拖沓冗长的、纷繁细碎的字里行间仍“隐藏”着对中国政治现实的映射。下面分别用一句话来总结这篇文章的主要几个部分的观点：
第一部分：世界经济面临困难，中国经济也不容乐观；
第二部分：中国的新计划，但仍有老毛病（可能指“不透明”）；
第三部分：期待中国有什么新变化（可能指政府的某些行为）？希望不大。。。。；
第四部分：人民币升值的“多面性”：一方面升值，一方面贬值，复杂！！！
个人观点，仅供参考，：）
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