【2008.11.13 美国 商业周刊】中国救市 希望减弱全球经济放缓的影响
中国救市该国希望减弱全球经济放缓的影响
作者：Justin Menza
来源：标准普尔证券研究中心
中国当局宣布在接下来的两年里，将投入5860亿美元来刺激经济。这个财政刺激计划占了中国国民生产总值的15%。它主要将花费在基础设施，对出口产品的减税，和增加对农村经济的补助上。但是目前还不清楚，这笔钱中有到底有哪些是已经包括在预算中，哪些是真正的新投入的。
这个庞大的经济刺激计划推出时，正逢中国经济放缓。中国官员希望能够保持其相对较快的经济增长速度，并且同时减弱全球经济放缓对国内经济的影响。
今年第三季度中，中国经济的增长速度从11.6%放缓到9%。标准普尔(Standard & Poor's) 预测中国经济将在2008年增长将在9.5%到10%之间, 2009年则在8.8%到9.3%之间。这是根据出口增长放缓和内需减少所做出的预测。
按照标准普尔的亚洲经济学家，Subir Gokarn的说法，“经济活动已经失去了一些动力，但是仍然靠内需和出口维持着。”此外，Gokarn指出，“近期政府对内需的刺激应该能抵消08-09年出口总量降低所带来的影响，因而保持高速增长的势头。”
尽管如此，一些经学家对仍中国避免经济出明显回落的能力表示悲观。Roubini Global Economics的主席Nouriel Roubini (纽约大学斯特恩商学院教授,Roubini Global Economics主席,曾在2006年准确预测了此次金融风暴)指出，如果GDP增长放缓到5%到6%，将会出现严重的收缩，因为中国需要保持9%到10%的增长速度，来为每年新增的2400万工人提供就业机会。为了支持他的观点，Roubini指出了美国和其他西方国家经济衰退导致的出口量降低，以及中国在刺激内需中所将遇到的困难。
这个5860亿美元的经济刺激计划就是为了减少这些风险。作为计划的一部分，中国政府将增加在低价房、农村基础设施、交通设施、医疗保健和教育上的投入，继续汶川地震受灾地区的重建工作，并且对增值税进行改革。经济研究机构Global Insight指出这个计划的目标在于短期内提高内需，而且它还将加速实施一些在过去五年内已经制定了的政策，这包括低价房和城市基础设施的建设。
比如说，上个月政府透露出将通过支持国内房地产市场和农村经济来刺激经济增长。为了恢复低迷的房地产市场，政府对首次购房者减少了印花税, 降低了利息和首付资金。如此之外，政府还透露将通过农村进行改革，力图在2020年把农民人均收入提高一倍，以减少贫穷的农民和富饶的城市之间的收入差距。中国政府还减少了贷款限制------从理论上使银行能够提供更多的贷款，提高投资从而增加经济活动。
除了从高政府开支方面下手外，中央银行自九月份以来三次将息，而且在顶住通货膨胀的压力下还会继续。标准普尔预测今年和明年CPI将在5.5%至6%和4.5%和5%之间。2009年上半年央行还会再次降息来支持经济增长。
总体来说，这个经济刺激计划的影响还会显现出---毕竟它的实施过程将持续九个季度，而且正如前文所说的，政府也没有明确回答到底有多少钱是新计划的。不过中国政府确实表示将增加120亿人民币（17.6亿美金）到第四季度的预算中。无论如何Global Insight认为，和中国其他很多国家不一样，它有能力增加预算，因为它拥有财政状况十分良好。这使它在需要的时候能够行采取进一步的措施来支持经济。
如果成功的话，我们认为中国的经济刺激计划的正面影响能够扩大到跟大的范围。它可能对世界经济有利。国际货币基金组织负责人Dominique Strauss-Kahn在一个在巴西举行的会议中说，“它是一项庞大的计划。它不仅将影响世界经济，还将会给中国经济带来很大的影响。我认为，对于纠正目前的一些失衡来讲，它是个好消息”。
原文地址：http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/nov2008/pi20081114_943127.htm
China Bailout
The country hopes to blunt the impact of global slowdown.
By Justin Menza
From Standard & Poor's Equity Research
Chinese authorities announced plans to spend $586 billion over the next two years in order to stimulate the economy. The fiscal stimulus plan, which represents about 15% of gross domestic product (GDP), includes spending on infrastructure, tax rebates for exporters, and increased aid for the rural economy. It is unclear, however, how much of this spending has already been included in the budget and how much is actually new.
This massive stimulus plan comes at a time when the Chinese economy is slowing down after a few years of enormous expansion and raises concerns about how much more there is to come. Chinese officials are hoping to maintain the country’s relatively strong economic growth rates and minimize the domestic impact of a global economic recession.
During the third quarter, Chinese economic growth decelerated to 9% from the 11.9% growth rate achieved in all of 2007, and the 11.6% expansion in all of 2006. Standard & Poor’s is currently forecasting economic growth of 9.5% to 10% for China in 2008 and 8.8% to 9.3% in 2009 based on an expectation for moderating export growth and weakening domestic demand.
According to Subir Gokarn, S&P’s Asia-Pacific economist, "Economic activity has lost some steam, but continues to be buoyant due to domestic demand and exports." Additionally, Gokarn notes that, "Recent government measures to boost consumption are likely to partially offset lower export demand in 2008 and 2009 and hence sustain momentum at a high level."
Nevertheless, some economists are more pessimistic about China’s ability to avoid a more significant pullback. Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, notes that a slowdown to 5% to 6% GDP growth would constitute a serious contraction, since China needs a growth rate of 9% to 10% to absorb the 24 million Chinese that join the labor force each year. In supporting his view, Roubini points to a likely sharp slump in demand for exports, as the United States and other Western countries enter into recession, and the difficulty China will have in stimulating domestic demand.
The $586 billion stimulus program is an attempt to minimize these risks. As part of the plan, the Chinese government intends to increase construction on low-cost housing, boost rural infrastructure spending, improve transportation infrastructure, increase healthcare and education spending, continue to spend on reconstruction in earthquake-hit areas, and reform the value-added tax. Economic research firm Global Insight notes that the focus of the program is on short-term measures aimed at supporting demand, and that it also speeds up the implementation of a number of preexisting social and policy initiatives of the past five years, such as low-income housing construction and rural and urban infrastructure projects.
For instance, last month the government unveiled plans to support both the domestic housing market and the rural economy to boost economic growth. As part of its efforts to revive the slumping housing market, the government instituted exemptions in paying the stamp tax, reduced down payment requirements, and cut interest rates on mortgages for first-time homebuyers.
Also, the government unveiled rural reforms aimed at doubling farmers' per-capita net income by 2020 and closing the gap between the poorer rural areas and the country’s prosperous cities. The Chinese government also lifted loan limits for the country’s banking industry, which in theory will allow them to increase their lending and fuel investment and economic activity.
In addition to government spending, the central bank cut interest rates three times since mid-September, and could continue to do so as long as inflationary pressures remain subdued. S&P is forecasting consumer price inflation of between 5.5% and 6% this year and 4.5% and 5% next year, and expects another rate cut in the first half of 2009 to support growth.
The overall impact the stimulus plan will have on the economy remains to be seen, since it will be spread over nine quarters and the government has not explicitly noted how much of the proposed spending is, as aforementioned, actually new. China did say it intends to spend an additional 120 billion yuan ($17.6 billion) beyond what was initially planned for the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, Global Insight notes that unlike many other countries, China has the capacity to boost spending due to its strong fiscal position, which may give it the leeway to undertake further measures to support the economy if needed.
If successful, we think the Chinese stimulus plan may also have a positive impact on the broader region, which depends on the Chinese economy for its own growth. It may also be positive for the world economy. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said at a meeting in Brazil, "It’s a huge package. It will have an influence not only on the world economy in supporting demand, but also a lot of influence on the Chinese economy itself, and I think it is good news for correcting imbalances."
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