【08.10.26美国firedoglake】未来就是中国
【08.10.26美国firedoglake】未来就是中国【原文标题】The Future Is China
【原文标题】未来就是中国
【登载媒体】美国 firedoglake 网站
【原文地址链接】http://firedoglake.com/2008/10/26/the-future-is-china/
【译者】妩人少将 个人原创翻译
【声明】本翻译仅供Anti-CNN使用，谢绝转载
【英文原文】
The Future Is China
By: Ian Welsh Sunday October 26, 2008 12:00 pm28
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The Water Cube
China is forecast to become the world's largest manufacturer next year, overtaking the US and ending the US's run of over a century in the top spot. The US took first place from Britain in the 1890's, and held it for a little over a hundred and ten years.
Let no one tell you that manufacturing is not more important than other parts of the economy in geopolitics. The ability to produce large amounts of stuff, combined with a large population, is two-thirds of what makes a modern great power. (The third part is an effective military culture.) Other sectors, such as the financial sector, are important to the extent that they support manufacturing and the ability to project force.
China has the world's largest internet. Its number of patents is growing faster than any other nation, and Chinese love being engineers, unlike in the US, where being a lawyer or MBA or maybe a doctor is considered the route to a good life. This, again, is eerily similar to the period when America broke down the doors: engineers were worshiped, scientists were respected and everyone wanted to be an inventor. In the old days Chinese came to America to become scientists and engineers, then stayed. Now they come and go back, and meanwhile Chinese universities pump out huge classes of both as well.
And great things are happening in China, such as their plan to become the world's leader in wind power by 2020 (which they are pumping huge amounts of money into) or their high speed trains, or experimental buildings such as the water cube or the bird's nest. Chengdu is creating a complex of buildings with sliced-geometry which are porous to sunlight. If you're an architect who wants to do big groundbreaking projects the best places in the world right now are Dubai or China. Certainly not the United States, where there is no money and no appetite.
Yes, China has a lot of problems. They're almost endless. But they also have an endless appetite for thinking big about how to solve their problems. That appetite is missing in the US. When I read policy proposals from both campaigns my response is usually as follows:
McCain: this policy, if followed, would be disastrous.
Obama: not a bad policy, but either doesn't go far enough or doesn't tackle the fundamental problem (for example, Obama's health care plans won't reduce costs enough, and without that, it's just a finger in the dike.)
The Chinese also think long term. They were aggressively buying up oil resources ten years ago when oil was under 20 dollars a barrel, and they were doing so at what then seemed like crazy prices (but which now seem like steals).
This new century is not going to belong to America. It is not going to belong to Japan. It's not yet clear that it'll belong to China, but they're a contender. America, though it is a continental power and will remain a Great Power will lose superpower status and once lost, will not regain it in our lifetimes.
At the end of the day, you can juggle as many pieces of paper as you want; you can play land-swap games with property and pretend that's real wealth, but in post industrial revolution societies, real wealth is what you can produce. China's far from as rich as the US on per-capita measures, but in gross terms, it's pulling even. And once it does it will just keep pulling away. And America's elites, who have helped it all along the way, offshoring and outsourcing as much industrial capacity to China as they could in exchange for labor arbitrage profits, will continue to help China preferentially over the US, because they understand that China is the future, that its market will be bigger than the American market, and that if you want to play in the big leagues, that's going to mean playing in China.
All of this may come tumbling down due to global warming and various resource shortages, mind you. China is running the same playbook that America ran, that Japan ran, that every Asian Tiger ran. It's running it fast, but time may be running out. But there are signs they recognize this, as with the wind power plan, and are moving to adjust. Everyone in the world is going to face the same problems. The future belongs to the nation or nations which adjust best, who create the new model economy which works within the new resource constraints in a world where resources don't come from an endless cornucopia. So far Europe, China, Japan and many other nations are ahead of the US in this race.
And those who don't complete the track will pay a fearful price because the old economy, based on cheap hydrocarbons, a huge food surfeit and cheap resources, will no longer be viable.
中文翻译；
中国就是未来
作者 伊恩 威尔士2008年10月二十六日星期日
中国预计明年将取代美国成为世界最大的制造工厂，结束一个多世纪以来美国始终雄踞第一的时代。美国1890年从英国手中夺得了（制造）第一名的位置，并保持了超过一百一十年的时间。
不要听信任何人告诉你的，那些制造业在地缘政治领域中并不比经济的其他方面更加重要的言论。要知道，制造庞大数量物质的能力，再加上众多的人口，是构成一个现代化强国所需要条件的三分之二。（另外的三分之一是有效的军事文化。）其他的领域例如金融领域也就只在它们维持制造业和投射武力的能力的方面来说，它们（其他的领域）才是重要的。
中国拥有世界上最大的互联网网络。它的专利数量的增长速度快于其他任何国家，而且中国人热衷于工程师的职业，相反，在美国成为律师、工商管理硕士或者甚至是医生才被认为是满意生活的正途。这也与美国当年打开强盛之门的那段时期是极其相似的：人民崇敬工程师、尊重科学家，每个人都想成为一名发明家。在过去的时候中国人来美国谋求成为科学家和工程师，然后他们留了下来。而现在他们回到祖国，同一时期中国的大学也培养了大量的这方面人才。
伟大的事件现在正在中国发生，比如他们到2020年在风力发电上成为世界领先者的计划（他们投入了大量的资金在这方面）、高速列车计划、或者是如水立方或鸟巢一样的实验性建筑的建造。成都正在用能穿透阳光的几何构片建设一个建筑群。如果你是一名想做重要突破性项目的建筑师，那么当前你发挥舞台的最佳地点是迪拜和中国。毫无疑问不是美国，在美国，没有钱也没有欲望。
是的，中国一直有着许多问题。而且这些问题几乎是没完没了的。但中国人也有着思考有关如何解决他们那些问题的无止境的欲望。美国失去了这种欲望。当我看到共和两党两位候选人的政策建议后我的回应通常如下：
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麦凯恩：其政策如果实行，那么结果将是灾难性的。
奥巴马：并不是糟糕的政策，但也还远远不够或没有解决根本问题（例如，奥巴马的医疗保健计划将不会在很大程度上消减费用，如果没有做到这点，就好比是在决堤的大坝上用手指抵挡缺口）
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中国人有着长远目光。在十年前油价还位于每桶20美元以下的时候他们就积极地购买石油资源，他们在当时以疯了似的价格抢购石油（但是以现在的行情来看这个价格就好像是偷油一样）。
这个新的世纪将不会属于美国，也不会属于日本。目前还不清楚它是否会属于中国，但中国将是其中的一个竞争者。尽管美国是一个大陆性的强权，并且在未来仍将是一个强国，但是它将失去世界超级大国的地位，而且一旦失去，在我们的有生之年，美国都将无法恢复自己曾经的地位。
在付账的时候，你可以如你所想的那样将账单撕成碎片来抵赖，你也可以用房产玩财产互换的游戏，并将其假装为真正的财产，但要了解，在以前的工业革命社会里，真正的财富是你可以生产的东西。中国在人均上远没有美国富裕，但就总额而言，它要更加的接近。一旦它做它仅仅将会将差距拉近。美国的精英们自始至终都在帮助中国，极尽其能地将众多的工业能力离岸或外包到中国，以获取廉价劳动力带来的利润，精英们将继续帮助中国优先于帮助美国，这是因为他们明白中国象征着未来，其市场规模将大于美国市场，而且如果你想在这场超级联赛中分一杯羹，那将意味着一切赛事都将在中国上演。
所有的这些推测都有可能由于全球气候变暖和各种资源枯竭而泯灭，一切取决于你的看法。中国正在上演美国、日本、甚至是亚洲四小龙曾经上演过的相同的剧本。中国快速的演绎着，但是剩下的时间可能不多了。然而有迹象表明，中国已经认识到这一点，就如他们的风力发电计划，中国一直在进行调整。世界上所有的人都将面临同样的问题。未来属于那些调整得最好的国家或国家们，属于那些在资源不是无穷无尽的聚宝盆的世界中，创造可以于新能源允许的范围内运行的新的经济模式的国家。迄今为止这场比赛中，欧洲、中国、日本和许多其他国家都领先于美国。
而那些无法完成这次赛跑的国家将付出可怕的代价，因为构建在廉价的碳氢化合物、庞大的食物过剩和廉价的资源基础上的旧经济将不会再是可行的。
[ 本帖最后由 妩人少将 于 2008-11-20 02:57 编辑 ]
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