[11.20 英国 经济学人] 流亡藏人 分裂的分裂者
【链接】http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12641758【翻译】Krypton
【标题】流亡藏人 分裂的分裂者
Tibetans in exile
Splitting splittistsNov 20th 2008 | DHARAMSALA
From The Economist print edition
A gathering of Tibetans in exile is a noble sign of failure
APhttp://media.economist.com/images/20081122/4708AS5.jpgThe one in the picture knows best
AS AN exercise in Athenian-style democracy, the conclave that took place this week in Dharamsala, the Indian-Himalayan refuge of the Tibetan government-in-exile, was impressive. From Buddhist monasteries and scattered Tibetan communities in India, Europe and America, nearly 600 exiles gathered to discuss the future of Tibetan nationalism. Even more remarkable, after a slew of depressing news for the Tibetan cause, was the hopefulness many expressed. “We have to do something to change the future,” said Thinlay Tharehin, a delegate from Moscow, beer in hand, in a Dharamsala watering-hole.
The exiles are not spoilt for options. The conclave was called by the Dalai Lama in response to the latest failure of his efforts to reach a compromise, or “Middle Way”, on the status of Tibet with its Chinese overlords. Spurred by violent springtime protests in Tibet and other ethnic Tibetan parts of China, China’s government had agreed to revive a stop-start process of confidence-building talks with the Dalai Lama’s envoys. No one placed much hope in the process: China was patently concerned that protesting Tibetans should not take the gloss off the Beijing Olympics in August.
Sure enough, the talks, the latest round of which ended on November 5th, seem only to have hardened China’s position. The Communist Party’s representatives had asked the Tibetans to present a list of their demands. These are based upon the notion of an autonomous Tibet within China, that the Dalai Lama has advocated since 1988. Predictably, the Tibetans’ proposals, which seemed consistent with China’s constitution, and more conciliatory than previously, did not find favour. China’s lead representative denounced them as amounting to “disguised independence”. The security regime in Tibet has since been tightened, according to the few Western reporters recently allowed there. Ahead of the gathering in Dharamsala, China’s foreign-ministry spokesman reminded India not to harbour activities “aimed at splitting Chinese territory”.
This has encouraged some exiled Tibetans—of whom there may be 150,000, including 100,000 in India—to aim for just that. Most exiled Tibetans, perhaps most Tibetans, approve the Dalai Lama’s leadership. But a growing number want a tougher line. This year’s protests in Tibet, the biggest against Chinese rule since 1989, may have swollen their ranks. So may the Dalai Lama’s recent admission that his efforts at conciliation have failed. This week’s debate was dominated by whether, in light of that failure, Tibetans should issue a formal demand for independence.
That would vindicate China nicely, which is one reason it seemed unlikely. The speaker of the parliament-in-exile said that of 17,000 messages from Tibetans inside Tibet, roughly 8,000 endorsed the Dalai Lama’s position, and 5,000 advocated demanding independence. The number of exile delegates expected to endorse the Dalai Lama’s “Middle Way” might be in a similar proportion—given that over half the total attending were members of the government-in-exile, which is loyal to him. The Tibetan Youth Congress, an independence-seeking organisation which has some 30,000 members, was directly represented by only two delegates.
Of course, the Dalai Lama, who has been trying to diminish his political role and was not present during this week’s discussions, might also change his mind. His peaceable methods have gained the world’s respect; nothing more. And the world’s respect for Tibetan nationalist aspirations is dwindling: as Britain demonstrated last month, when it said its long failure to recognise full Chinese sovereignty over Tibet was “anachronistic”.
流亡藏人
分裂的分裂主义者
流亡藏人的集会是显著的失败标志
作为一个雅典式民主的演习，本周西藏流亡政府的印度-喜马拉雅庇护所，达哈萨哈召开的会议给人以深刻的印象。从佛教僧侣到分散在印度，欧洲，美洲的藏人团体，近六百个流亡藏人代表聚集一堂讨论藏族的未来。更值得注意的是，关于藏人理想的消沉新闻出现回转余地后，许多人表示抱有希望。一位来之莫斯科的代表Thinlay THarehin，手拿啤酒在达哈萨哈的一个酒馆里说“我们得为改变未来做些事”
流亡藏人没有太多的选择。达赖喇嘛为了回应其在西藏地位上与其中国霸主协商以达成妥协或“中间路线”的努力失败而召开此次会议。在今年春季西藏和中国其他藏族地区的暴力抗议的驱策下，中国政府同意恢复中断的其达赖喇嘛的私人代表之间建立信心的磋商。但没人对此报以希望：中国显然只关注抗议藏人不应使八月奥运会失色。
诚然，最后一次与11月5日结束的对话似乎使中国的立场更强硬。共产党代表要求藏人提供一份需求列表。这是建立在达赖喇嘛1989年以来鼓吹的自治西藏的概念上。可以预见，这个似乎与中国宪法相符，且较先前更平和的提议不会得到赞赏。中国领导人代表公然指责他们旨在“变相独立”，根据很少几位准入的西方记者报道说，西藏的安全机制也从此加强。达哈萨哈会议之前，中国外交部发言人警告印度不要庇护旨在分裂中国的活动。
这正好怂恿一些流亡藏人——大概150000人，包括位于印度的10000人——追求独立为目标。大部分流亡藏人，甚至绝大多数藏人都拥护达赖的领导。但越来越多的人希望走一条更强硬的路线。今年这起89年以来针对中国的最大一次抗议也许扩充了他们的队伍。达赖也可能承认他的安抚政策失败。本周的争论集中于鉴于目前的失败，藏人是否该提出独立的正式要求。
这正好为中国提供辩护——这似乎是靠不住的理由。流亡议会发言人说来至西藏的17000条消息中，大概8000条认可达赖的立场，5000条鼓吹要求独立。流亡代表中认可达赖喇嘛立场的比例可能与此相似——鉴于超过一半的与会者都来至忠于达赖的流亡政府。藏青会，一个拥有30000人寻求独立的组织仅有两位代表。
当然，希望减少政治角色且没有出席本周讨论的达赖喇嘛可能会改变想法。他的和平路线赢得世界尊重，但也仅此而已。世界对西藏民族主义者的渴求的尊重正在萎缩：因为英国上周表示， 英国未能承认中国对西藏的主权是“时代错误”
[ 本帖最后由 krypton 于 2008-11-25 16:50 编辑 ] 什么TM世界呀！
德国、英国、法国、美国、捷克也代表整个世界！
吹牛逼呢吧！ 大部分流亡藏人，甚至全部藏人都拥护达赖的领导。
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拜托,写文章请先打草稿.只有农奴主的后代才拥护达赖 楼上的抱歉，原文是most 应该是绝大多数，不是全部。抱歉！ 看过一个资料,黄教人口仅占藏区人口20%,不知道对不对.西方媒体故意的误导西方人. 人家报道只报道他们感兴趣的,他们认为DALAI是西藏的宗教领袖于是就找证据证明他是,而那些反证自然不是他们要的东西了. 经济学人，BAICHI啊，
流亡议会发言人说来至西藏的17000条消息中，大概8000条认可达赖的立场，5000条鼓吹要求独立。
够种就发布出来供大家学习啊
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