【08.11.26 商业周刊】不要指望中国消费者为全球经济伸出援助之手
【原文标题】Global Economy: No Help from China's Consumers【中文标题】全球经济：没有来自中国消费者的帮助
【登载媒体】BusinessWeek
【来源地址】http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_49/b4111062897930.htm?campaign_id=rss_as
【译者】荡漾
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，转载请注明译者及出处，谢谢！
【译文】
通过中国正在增长的中产阶级的消费来挽救经济危机的希望随着中国人选择了保守的储蓄而破灭了。
Jack Tan一度是西方市场营销家理想的消费者。这位24岁的中国南部城市深圳的银行经理月收入1200美元，他的消费规律吃在必胜客、麦当劳和星期五餐厅，他穿耐克、用诺基亚手机，听着iPod nano里林肯公园和绿日的歌，喝的是什么？星巴克的拿铁咖啡。
但最近Tan改变了他的生活方式。3万美元的存款大多数在中国股市里蒸发了，今年损失了超过60%。出去吃饭Tan通常选择中国本土的面条和馄饨店，买辆汽车的计划也被搁置了。他甚至打算明年要将薪水的一半存起来，“人人都在存钱，以应对即将到来的困难时期”。
经济学家一度寄希望于中国新兴的中产阶级帮助消化购买力不足的美国消费市场，但随着股市下跌、房地产缩水、数以千计的工厂关门即使是像Tan这样大手大脚的消费者也捂紧了钱包。中国长期以来一直通过工厂努力生产出更多的商品以满足美国市场需要而在全球经济繁荣中扮演着重要的角色。
中国明白需要刺激国内消费来保证经济的健康发展，但没有足够安全的保证中国消费者很难愿意消费。独立经济学家谢国忠认为“只有当中国人确信政府能提供更好的社会福利时才会考虑储蓄是否太多的问题”“消费增长是一个渐进的过程，不可能一蹴而就成为经济引擎”。
这对于打算靠中国来弥补在其他地方遇到的艰难状况的跨国公司来说不是个好消息。零售商和制造商一样都发现中国的销售在减缓。例如中国BDA的研究员表示手机的销售在过去五年中每年的增长率达到30%，而在未来五年能达到年均9%的增长率就很不错了。经济的减速大幅削减了诺基亚、摩托罗拉、沃尔玛和家乐福的利润，尽管这些公司不愿透露中国业务的细节。欧盟商会中国区总裁Joerg Wuttke认为“现在中国没有一家公司是不受影响的”。
广州年度车展明显感受得到这种阴影。11月18日开幕的本届车展虽然不缺乏时尚的概念车和身着迷你裙的车模，汽车行业主管们对前景的蓝图描绘是灰暗的并呼吁政府伸出援手。自2001年以来中国的汽车市场每年以超过20%的增长率在发展，但据J.D.Power& Associates的研究员预测明年的增长率将滑落2%。中国一直以来都是通用的市场亮点，但通用透露别克今年的销售量可能下滑12%而J.D.Power预测2009年还将继续下滑21%。通用表示这个数字有点夸张但承认金融危机影响到了中国市场。日产汽车曾经寄希望于中国市场能弥补低迷的美国销售情况，但现在看起来是不可能的了。日产中国公司总裁Yasuaki Hashimoto表示“今年还过得去，但我担心明年的情况”。
供应商也跟着跨国公司陷入困境，形成恶性循环：境况不佳的工厂解雇更多的工人，工人则停止消费。位于香港北部珠江三角洲的中国出口商受到金融危机的影响如此之深以致于总理温家宝特意前往察看。11月14日温家宝视察了东莞制造新百伦运动鞋的力凯鞋业制造公司，工厂的订单从2007年的930万下降到今年的700万，力凯鞋业从1月份以来解雇了9000名工人中的22%。新百伦中国老板Stanley Chen认为“消费者们对未来没有把握，因此他们减少开支”。
大规模投资项目并无帮助
从长远来看，寄希望于中国中产阶级成为全球繁荣的引擎非没有道理，只不过要达到这个目标可能需要许多年才会让他们掏出足够的钱。尽管鼓励人们加大消费，国内生产总值中消费所占比例已从十年前的46.8%下降到2007年的37.1%。在美国则截然不同，消费比例占到GDP的70%。中国5860亿美元的刺激计划包含一些旨在促进消费的措施，大部分资金将投资于建设新的高速公路、铁路和机场等大型项目。
刺激计划也想对房地产起作用，但房价处于持平或下跌状况。例如深圳今年的房价降了15%，使得像Xu Shunggang这样的工人陷入了困境。建筑工地停止了施工，这位38岁的工人和其他民工一起坐在火车站里。Xu Shungang原计划在深圳待上三个月，现在才过了20天他就准备回河南省的老家了。尽管他期待着家里的春节，却不打算带礼物回去。Xu看着装有他物品的蛇皮袋说考虑到将来最好还是把钱存起来，“现在找不到工作”“等经济形势好一点我们再回来”。
作者Roberts是商业周刊的亚洲新闻编辑、中国分社社长，Tschang是商业周刊北京分社的记者
【原文】
(by Dexter Roberts and Chi-Chu Tschang)
Hopes that China's growing middle class would ride to the economic rescue have been dashed as Chinese hunker down and save
Jack Tan was a Western marketer's dream. The 24-year-old bank manager from the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen regularly spent a big chunk of his $1,200 monthly salary at Pizza Hut (YUM), McDonald's (MCD), and TGI Friday's. He wears Nikes (NKE), carries a Nokia (NOK) phone, and listens to Linkin Park and Green Day on his iPod (AAPL) nano. His pick-me-up? A latte at Starbucks (SBUX).
But lately Tan has changed his ways. Much of his $30,000 in savings has evaporated with the Chinese stock market, down more than 60% this year. When he eats out, Tan frequents local Chinese noodle and dumpling shops, and his plans to buy a car have been put on hold. Instead he expects to salt away half of his salary next year. "Everyone is saving so we can make it through the hard times to come," he says.
Economists had hoped China's burgeoning middle class might pick up where U.S. shoppers have left off. But even big spenders like Tan have tightened purse strings as stocks plunge, real estate values fall, and thousands of factories close their doors. While China has long been a big contributor to worldwide expansion, that has been largely fueled by factories that churn out ever more goods to fill U.S. malls.
Beijing understands that it needs to boost consumption at home to achieve healthier growth, but Chinese consumers have been reluctant to spend without an adequate safety net. "Only when the Chinese are sure their government will take better care of their social welfare will they decide they are saving too much," says Andy Xie, an independent economist. "Growing consumption is a gradual process. It cannot immediately become an economic engine."
This is bad news for multinationals that were counting on China to make up for tough times elsewhere. Retailers and manufacturers alike are seeing Chinese sales slow. Cell phone sales, for instance, have grown by 30% a year over the past half decade, but over the next five years they'll be lucky to hit 9% annual growth, says researcher BDA China. The slowdown has crunched margins for the likes of Nokia, Motorola, Wal-Mart, and Carrefour, though the companies declined to discuss the details of their China business. "No one involved in China today is unaffected," says Joerg Wuttke, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.
The gloom was apparent at the annual Guangzhou Auto Show. While there was no shortage of sleek concept cars and models in miniskirts at the annual event, which opened Nov. 18, auto executives painted a glum picture of their prospects and called for a handout from Beijing. China's car market has grown by more than 20% annually since 2001, but next year it could contract by 2%, researcher J.D. Power & Associates (MHP) predicts. China has long been a bright spot for General Motors, but the company says Buick sales will likely tumble by 12% this year, and J.D. Power predicts they'll fall by another 21% in 2009. GM says the decline won't be that steep, but acknowledges that the financial crisis is taking its toll in China. Nissan Motor (NSANY) had expected China to pick up the slack from the U.S., but that now looks unlikely. "This year is O.K., but I have some concerns about next year," says Yasuaki Hashimoto, president of Nissan's affiliate in China.
As multinationals suffer, their suppliers do, too, completing a vicious cycle: Ailing factories fire more workers, who then stop spending. The impact of the crisis on Chinese exporters in the Pearl River Delta north of Hong Kong has gotten so severe that Premier Wen Jiabao made a special tour of the region. On Nov. 14 he stopped in at Li Kai Shoes Manufacturing, a Dongguan company that makes New Balance sneakers. With orders at the plant down from9.3 million in 2007 to 7 million this year, Li Kai has laid off 22% of its 9,000 workers since January. "Consumers are unsure about the future so they're cutting down on expenses," says Stanley Chen, China boss for New Balance.
MEGAPROJECTS WON'T HELP
Longer-term, it's not unreasonable to expect China's middle class to become an engine of global expansion. But it may be years before they open their wallets enough to make a difference. Despite efforts to get citizens to spend more, consumption as a percentage of gross domestic product has shrunk in recent years, to 37.1% in 2007, from 46.8% a decade earlier. In the U.S., by contrast, consumption makes up 70% of GDP. And while China's $586 billion stimulus plan includes some measures aimed at boosting consumption, the bulk of the money will go to megaprojects such as new highways, railroads, and airports.
The stimulus also aims to boost real estate, but housing prices are flat or down. In Shenzhen, for instance, they have fallen by 15% this year—leaving the likes of Xu Shungang in the lurch. Construction has ground to a halt, so the 38-year-old laborer sits with other migrants at the railway station. After just 20 days in Shenzhen, Xu is cutting short his planned three-month stay and heading back to Henan province. Though he is looking forward to Chinese New Year at home, he won't be bringing many presents. It's better to save for the future, Xu says, eyeing a plastic duffel bag stuffed with his belongings. "There are no more jobs now," he says. "We'll come back when the economy is stronger."
Roberts is BusinessWeek's Asia News Editor and China bureau chief. Tschang is a correspondent in BusinessWeek's Beijing bureau.
【截图】
[ 本帖最后由 荡漾 于 2008-12-2 02:43 编辑 ] 真的搞不明白一个问题～
一个手机销量增长30％和一个增长9％的感念之间存在着什么问题！
难道没有
市场容量问题
产品技术是否适合大众需要问题 现在经济不好，省着点过日子吧！ 不能靠别人，要靠自己努力，怎么写这文章的记者的妈妈没教过他吗？ 銀行經理1200美元一個月？貌似比較假 原帖由 pacifichawk 于 2008-12-2 10:52 发表 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
銀行經理1200美元一個月？貌似比較假
估计是个业绩一般的客户经理吧 文章以为拉动内需就是刺激消费？国家政策首先是建更多的高速公路、铁路来刺激经济，提供更多的工作岗位。
回复 7楼 Pal 的帖子
文章想说他们原本的期望泡汤了，基本架构没问题。顺便说一句，农民工的触觉是相对敏感的，消费的疲乏会有一定程度的体现，也许目前还不明显，一定会有表现的，在这点上，西方今年对中国人的储蓄大国的认识毫无疑问加深了了解。
[ 本帖最后由 BigGolden 于 2008-12-2 15:18 编辑 ] 哈哈。。。鲁迅先生教导说：走自己的路，让别人去说吧 Q42)
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