【08.12.03 美联社】中美经济对话前夕中国的汇率问题骤然升温
【原文标题】China currency issue heating up on eve of US talks【中文标题】在与美国的对话前夕中国汇率问题升温
【登载媒体】SFGate
【来源地址】http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/12/02/financial/f233001S09.DTL&feed=rss.business
【译者】荡漾
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，转载请注明译者及出处，谢谢！
【译文】
数月来波动保持在很小范围内的人民币对美元汇率近来的下降正威胁着原本长期僵持的汇率问题，在即将于北京召开的中美经济对话前夕骤然升温。
美国财政部长保尔森周二在华盛顿表示北京必须让人民币对美元价值上升以缓解中美之间的贸易紧张局势。
中国的国家喉舌日报《中国日报》为汇率问题潜在的冲突发出了信号，周三上午发表了一篇头版文章，标题是“US urged not to harp on currency issue on talks”（美国要求不要在对话时多提汇率问题）。
报道援引分析家意见认为北京可能需要让人民币贬值使中国制造的产品更便宜以帮助出口商应对全球危机。
《中国日报》援引北京著名的清华大学研究员Zhou Shijian的说法“现在推动人民币升值对中美双方来说结果就是两败俱伤”。
Zhou表示中国更愿意看到周四、周五在北京举行高级别会谈，即战略经济对话，能聚焦能源与环境。
中国的人民币周三晚在上海对美元价格为6.8783，周初从上周五的6.8254开始上升。继年初人民币升值之后出现6.88左右的交易价是在六月份，之后的几个月一直在6.83左右徘徊。
美国制造商长期以来坚持认为人民币价值被低估，中国公司因此不公平地获得竞争优势并造成两国之间创纪录的贸易逆差。新当选总统奥巴马已表示他将给中国施加压力结束其对汇率体系的操控。
中国一直保持人民币对美元汇率在相对狭小的范围内，认为需在逐渐放宽控制的过程中保持汇率稳定。中国从与邻国一起应对上世纪末的亚洲金融危机预防人民币贬值中吸取了不少经验。
尽管中国集中刺激内需的政策与扶持出口相矛盾，但中国制造产品的需求疲软造成成千上万的工厂倒闭加大了政治上敏感的失业焦虑。
本周之前人民币兑美元在过去三年升值了20%，周初的突然下跌给汇率问题降了温。而美元对欧元和其他主要货币的反弹更加促进了人民币的升值，令出口商压力倍增。
《中国日报》与其他报道援引社科院财贸研究所所长裴长洪在北京一个新闻发布会上的说法“如果美元对欧元继续升值，我们将不得不调整人民币”。
他表示这样的调整是“合理而必需的”。
人民币对美元汇率周一突然下跌0.7%逼近6.8848，分析家们表示出乎市场预料。
不过随即央行行长周小川就发表言论称不排除人民币贬值以帮助促进出口增长。
上海东方证券一位分析师Feng Yuming认为“看起来因为严峻的经济前景央行正在逐步采取措施借助人民币贬值帮助刺激出口工业。这在一定程度上可以看作是国家的经济刺激政策”。
不过考虑到中国巨大的贸易顺差和不断增加的外汇储备人民币贬值的空间仍然是有限的。
汇率问题在一定程度上存在争议，一些中国的分析家们认为采取人民币贬值的手段会造成资本外逃至其他货币预计将增值的国家，还可能因为出口竞争国而引发竞争性货币贬值。
上证观察员李剑锋在周三《上海证券报》的一篇评论文中指出“人民币贬值既无必要也不适宜”。
【原文】
(by Elaine Kurtenbach)
A recent decline in the Chinese currency's value against the U.S. dollar after months of hovering in a narrow range is threatening to bring the long-simmering issue to full boil as U.S.-China economic talks get under way in Beijing.
In Washington, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Tuesday that Beijing must keep letting the yuan rise against the dollar to help ease trade tensions with the United States.
Signaling potential for a renewed tensions over the issue, the state-run newspaper China Daily ran a front-page article Wednesday morning headlined: "US urged not to harp on currency issue at talks."
It cited analysts arguing that Beijing might need to devalue the yuan, thus making goods made in China cheaper, to help its exporters weather the global recession.
"Pushing for a rising yuan now will be a lose-lose move for both China and the U.S.," the China Daily cited Zhou Shijian, a researcher at Beijing's prestigious Tsinghua University, as saying.
He said China would prefer to see the high-level talks Thursday and Friday in Beijing, known as the Strategic Economic Dialogue, focus on cooperation in energy and the environment.
The Chinese yuan was at 6.8783 late Wednesday in Shanghai. It closed last Friday at 6.8254 but jumped to above 6.88 Monday last Friday. The currency last traded above 6.8800 in June, and had hovered near 6.8300 in recent months after advancing against the dollar earlier in the year.
American manufacturers have long contended that the yuan is undervalued, giving Chinese companies an unfair edge and contributing to the record trade gap between the two countries. President-elect Barack Obama has said he will pressure Beijing to end what he calls the manipulation of its exchange-rate system.
China keeps the yuan trading in a relatively narrow range against the U.S. dollar, saying it needs to keep its currency stable while gradually loosening controls. It gained points with its neighbors for refraining from devaluing the yuan during the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s.
Propping up exports runs counter to Beijing's policy of focusing on stimulating domestic demand. But the failure of thousands of factories hit by a slump in demand for Chinese-made products has raised worries over politically sensitive job losses.
Before this week's abrupt decline, the yuan had risen in value by more than 20 percent against the dollar over the past three years, taking some of the heat out of the issue. The U.S. dollar's rebound against the euro and other major currencies had further boosted the yuan's value, adding to pressure on exporters.
"If the dollar continues to rise against the euro, we will have to further adjust the renminbi," the China Daily and other reports cited Pei Changhong, director of the government-affiliated Institute of Finance and Trade Economics, as saying at a news conference in Beijing.
He called such adjustments "reasonable and necessary."
The Chinese currency's sudden drop Monday, when it fell 0.7 percent to close at 6.8848 to the U.S. dollar, was unexpected, analysts said.
But it did follow comments by China's central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, that he would not rule out a devaluation of the yuan to help promote export growth.
"It seems the central bank is taking steps to depreciate the yuan to help boost export industries, due to the grim economic outlook. It could be seen as part of the country's stimulus policy," said Feng Yuming, an analyst at Oriental Securities, in Shanghai.
Still, Beijing's scope for depreciating the yuan is limited given the country's massive trade surplus and its huge and surging foreign exchange reserves.
Indicating a degree of controversy over the issue, some Chinese analysts argue that resorting to devaluation could cause capital to flee to other countries whose currencies are expected to gain in value. It could also trigger competitive devaluations by rival exporting nations.
"Devaluing the renminbi is not necessary or appropriate," Li Jianfeng, an economic analyst at Shanghai Securities, said in a commentary in Wednesday's Shanghai Securities News.
【截图】
[ 本帖最后由 荡漾 于 2008-12-3 21:26 编辑 ] 今天就是周四，要开了。让我猜一下，汇率问题不谈是＝＝＝＝不可能的 Q44)
页:
[1]