【08.12.8基督教科学箴言报】中国:空旷的天空,空旷的写字楼
【08.12.08科学箴言报】中国：空旷的天空，空旷的写字楼【原文标题】In China, empty office spaces fill the sky【中文标题】中国：空旷的天空，空旷的写字楼【登载媒体】美国 基督教科学箴言报【来源网址】http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1208/p07s03-woap.html
【译者】yangfuguang
【原文】
In China, empty office spaces fill the sky
The global credit meltdown and Shanghai's slowing economy are chasing
away big-time renters from the world's second-tallest building.
By Simon Montlake | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor from the December 8, 2008 edition
SHANGHAI, CHINA - As dusk falls on Shanghai's futuristic skyline, spotlights blazeon its newest and tallest landmark. Fairy lights dance around the trapezoid opening at the top of the Shanghai World Financial Center (SWFC). Depending on where you stand, the Japanese-designed tower, the world's second tallest, looks like a giant bottle opener or a knife slicing the foggy skies. But behind the glitter is an awkward truth: The lights are on, but almost nobody is home.
A global credit meltdown and a slowing domestic economy conspired to ruin the coming-out party for this and other newly built skyscrapers, part of a Chinese real-estate boom that has lost its allure. New homes lack buyers and high-rise offices lack renters, depressing prices and forcing developers in Shanghai and other cities to mothball projects as financing dries up.
Since October, China's government has responded by slashing interest rates, sweetening mortgage terms, and adding low-cost housing to its two-year economic stimulus plan. Authorities are also arm-twisting banks to keep lending to domestic industries. But a glut of completed commercial and residential property will likely prove hard to shift in a climate of caution. Nor does the stimulus package offer much relief for real-estate companies exposed to the sudden downturn.
"Some developers will definitely go bankrupt. It happened before. The government will probably want bigger companies to take the companies over," says Vincent Gu, assistant general manager of property sales at K Wah Investment, a real-estate developer in Shanghai.
A real-estate crash in China doesn't pose the catastrophic risk of a US-style credit crunch. That's because Chinese banks haven't binged on property lending: Only 20 percent of outstanding loans are in real estate, either in the form of mortgages or credit to developers, according to the World Bank. Around half of apartment sales in Shanghai are done in cash, says Mr. Gu.
Banks also have a big cushion in terms of capital, so a spike in bad loans is unlikely to sink them. But local authorities will be hit hard, as they depend heavily on property taxes and land sales. Under the stimulus plan, local counties, cities, and towns are supposed to pump up spending to supplement money from Beijing.
"Over half of the revenues of local governments come from the property sector, so they were pushing really hard to build more. Eventually, you hit a wall," says Andy Xie, an independent economist in Shanghai.
Few pushed harder than Pudong, the district of Shanghai that was transformed in the 1990s from farmland into a financial hub designed to rival, if not surpass, Wall Street. Multinational firms seeking office space were aggressively courted, often at the expense of Chinese companies. Rents soared as the world flocked to China, and developers scrambled to meet demand.
That red-hot demand is now cooling just as a spurt of shiny new buildings fling open their doors. As a result, occupancy rates in Pudong's commercial center recently rose to their highest level since 2004 and that trend is set to continue, possibly into 2010.
"Even without the financial crisis, Shanghai's office market was slated for a correction," says Hingyin Lee, director of research in Shanghai at Colliers International, a property consultancy and agent. "This will lengthen and deepen the correction."
The SWFC opened in August, having signed up a slate of clients willing to pay for the most prestigious address in Shanghai. A Park Hyatt hotel – the world's tallest – begins at the building's 79th floor with rooms starting from $400.
Among those must-have clients was Lehman Brothers, just weeks away from bankruptcy. Several other international companies have also broken their leases, say property agents. Estimates of the SWFC's occupancy rate range from 20 percent to 40 percent.
Shanghai's boosters point out that their city, a capitalist crucible since the 19th century, was virtually built on land speculation and knows how to survive through booms and busts. In 2005, residential sales slumped as Beijing sought to deflate a real-estate bubble in this and other boomtowns. That effort largely succeeded, so there is an expectation that a fiscal boost can revive the market. Property agents also point to
Shanghai's hosting of the 2010 World Expo as a growth driver.
Steep discounts will probably entice back home buyers, as there is pent-up demand for urban housing in China. Unlike in the US, where consumers are saddled by debt, Chinese customers are more concerned with spending their savings wisely, says Mr. Xie, the economist. "This is the difference between China and the US. In China, with lower prices there will be demand," he says.
On a vacant city block behind the SWFC (1,614 feet), construction has begun on a rival Chinese-financed skyscraper. The Shanghai Tower is designed to surpass it by reaching 2,073 feet, also beating out Taiwan's Taipei 101, currently the world's tallest building. Its completion due date is 2014 – in time for the next global bull market.
中国：空旷的天空，空旷的写字楼
——西蒙·孟特莱克
中国上海——当夜幕降临在新奇的大上海的天空时，高大绚丽的地标式建筑出现在人们眼前。在上海环球金融中心顶层的绚丽彩灯迎风舞动优美的身姿。无论从那个地方看，这座由日本人设计的世界第二高楼，看起来就像是一个巨大的开瓶刀或者是一把穿过天空的刀。
但是在辉煌的外表之下，却有一个非常尴尬的事实：灯虽亮着，但是却没有人在里面。全球信贷危机和国内经济的下滑使得今后建设这样或者那样的摩天大楼变得不可能了，这也是中国房市失去吸引力的表现。新的住房没有买家，高级写字楼没有租户，令人绝望的价格使得在许多上海和其他城市的开发商们因为资金断流而停止在建的项目。
从十月开始，中国政府为了经济开始削减利率，降低抵押贷款的难度，增加经济商品房的供给，所有的这一切都是为期两年的经济刺激计划的一部分。当局也敦促银行积极给企业提供贷款。
但是过剩的商品房使得这种努力看起来收效甚微。经济刺激计划也没有给房地产商们带来利好，他们不得不选择降价。一些开发商肯定会破产的，这在之前就发生过。“政府显然希望大的公司能够接手那些运转困难的公司，”文特森·顾，一个在嘉华投资负责房地产销售的副总经理，同时是上海的房地产开发商这样告诉记者。
世界银行透露，中国房市的低迷并不像美国的次贷危机，因为中国的银行没有发放太多的房产抵押贷款：只有20%的未偿还贷款是投放到房地产市场的，在抵押贷款和房产商的信贷方面也是相同的。顾先生告诉我们，在上海的购房交易中，大约有一半的购买者是用现金支付的。银行也有很多的缓冲资本，所以不良贷款不会给给他们带来灭顶之灾。
但是地方政府会觉得头疼的，因为他们的收入有很多是来自房产税和卖地所得的收入。在经济刺激计划之下，市、县、乡镇都想从北京得到财政支持。“地方政府的财政收入有半数多来自房地产市场，所以他们再也无力推动其他的建设，现在，终于无路可走了”一位上海的独立的经济学家这样说。
浦东面临的一点困难，上海的这片区域在上世纪90年代从农田变成了一个足以和华尔街竞争金融中心。跨国公司争先在这里寻找办公地点，由此也给中国公司带来了损失。伴随着世界争先恐后地向中国涌来的，是这一地区飞速上涨的租金；为了迎合这种需求，开发商们也拼了命的想挤进来。当时火爆的需求如今已经冷却，就像崭新的建筑物从它的们里发出的微光。因此浦东的房间出租率从2004年就开始急剧升高，这种状况会持续到2010年。
“即便没有金融危机，上海的写字楼也在酝酿着改革，”上海高丽国际的研究中心主任，物业咨询和代理李行音说：“这次的金融危机只是延长并深化了这种调整。”
上海环球金融中心在八月开始营业，已经和一位想在上海拥有有声望的办公地点的客户签订了合约。还有阿柏悦酒店，世界上最高的酒店——始于第79层，房间的价格从400美金起价。在这些客户中，不能缺少的是不久前刚破产的雷曼兄弟银行。物业代理说，几家其他的跨国公司也终止了他们的合约。据估计，上海环球金融中心的出租率已经从20%上升到40%.。
上海的支持者说，他们的城市是一个从19世纪开始的建立在土地投机和如何在沉浮中生存基础上的冒险家乐园。在2005年，因为北京想挤掉房市的泡沫，上海的房产销售大幅下降。这种努力基本上奏效了，因此，人们期望财政上的支持能让市场恢复。物业代理者们也指望2010年的世博会给他们带来转机。
急剧的降价也许会让买家动心，因为在中国的城市里对住房的需求还是很大的。不像美国人那种负债式的消费，中国的消费者是花他们的积蓄“”，谢先生，一个经济学家说：“这就是中国和美国的不同。在中国较低的价格会更有吸引力。”
在上海环球金融中心（1614英尺）的后面的一片空地上，中国资助的一个与金融中心竞争的摩天大楼正在建造。上海大厦设计高度是2073英尺，比台北101大楼还有高，将是世界上最高的建筑，预计在2014年完工——刚好赶上全球经济恢复的时候。
如果你只有1-3年的眼光,你看到的是空旷的写字楼,不合理的价格.
如果你有10年甚至50年100年的眼光,你看到的将是不够用的写字楼,上海还必须造造造.
至于价格嘛,还会涨.
高档写字楼也是奢侈品.可是人类需要奢侈品去满足虚荣心.没有一件奢侈品是必须存在的,不能缺少的,不是吗? 文章有水啊, 甲A级的办公楼基本上入住率很高 ,比较难找,酒店 像金茂的什么悦, 威斯汀等入住率90%以上了 我爱我的祖国，谁想分裂她，我会浴血奋战，尽管我的祖国有许多缺点！反正奥运会开完了，也该和孙子们算算帐了。 那个楼才刚修建完没多久。已经百分之40了，已经很不错了。假以时日想租都租不到了。 楼市泡沫早就该挤掉了！
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