【08.12.20 纽约时报】社论：中国并不会拯救我们
本帖最后由 luyi99 于 2008-12-24 03:57 编辑【原文标题】China to the Rescue? Not!
【登载媒体】New York Times 纽约时报
【来源地址】http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/21/opinion/21friedman.html?_r=1
【翻译方式】转载网上翻译 http://news.wenxuecity.com/messages/200812/news-gb2312-760609.html
【原文】
OP-ED COLUMNIST
China to the Rescue? Not!
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Published: December 20, 2008
I had no idea that many of those oil paintings that hang in hotel rooms and starter homes across America are actually produced by just one Chinese village, Dafen, north of Hong Kong. And I had no idea that Dafen’s artist colony — the world’s leading center for mass-produced artwork and knockoffs of masterpieces — had been devastated by the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble. I should have, though.
“American property owners and hotels were usually the biggest consumers of Dafen’s works,” Zhou Xiaohong, deputy head of the Art Industry Association of Dafen, told Hong Kong’s Sunday Morning Post. “The more houses built in the United States, the more walls that needed our paintings. Now our business has frozen following the crash of the Western property market.”
Dafen is just one of a million Chinese and American enterprises that constitute the most important economic engine in the world today — what historian Niall Ferguson calls “Chimerica,” the de facto partnership between Chinese savers and producers and U.S. spenders and borrowers. That 30-year-old partnership is about to undergo a radical restructuring as a result of the current economic crisis, and the global economy will be highly impacted by the outcome.
After all, it was China’s willingness to hold the dollars and Treasury bills it had earned from exporting to America that helped keep U.S. interest rates low, giving Americans the money they needed to keep buying shoes, flat-screen TVs and paintings from China, as well as homes in America. Americans then borrowed against those homes to consume even more — one reason we enjoyed rising wealth without rising incomes.
This division of labor not only nourished our respective economies, but also shaped our politics. It enabled China’s ruling Communist Party to say to its people: “We will guarantee you ever-higher standards of living and in return you will stay out of politics and let us rule.” So China’s leaders could enjoy double-digit growth without political reform. And it enabled successive U.S. administrations, particularly the current one, to tell Americans: “You can have guns and butter — subprime mortgages with nothing down and nothing to pay for two years, ever-higher consumption and two wars, without tax increases!”
It all worked — until it didn’t.
With unemployment now soaring across the U.S., said Stephen Roach, the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, Americans — “the most over-extended consumer in world history” — can no longer buy so many Chinese exports. We need to save more, invest more, consume less and throw out most of our credit cards to bail ourselves out of this crisis.
But as that happens, we need China to take our discarded credit cards and distribute them to its own people so they can buy more of what China produces and more imports from the rest of the world. That’s the only way Beijing can sustain the minimum 8 percent growth it needs to maintain the political bargain between China’s leaders and led — not to mention pick up some of the slack in the global economy from America’s slowdown.
However, if I’ve learned one thing here, it’s just how hard doing that will be. China’s whole system and culture nourish saving, not spending, and changing that will require a huge “cultural and structural” shift, said Fred Hu, chairman for Greater China for Goldman Sachs.
In China, for instance, to buy a home you have to put at least 20 percent down, and the average is 40 percent. If you try to walk away from the mortgage, the bank will come after your personal assets. Moreover, China can’t just shift production from the U.S. market to its own consumers. Not many Chinese villagers want to buy $400 tennis shoes or Christmas tree ornaments.
Also, China has no real Social Security, health insurance or unemployment insurance. Without that social safety net, it’s hard to see how Chinese don’t end up saving most of their stimulus. “You open up the newspaper every day and you hear about this factory shutting down or that supplier going belly up,” said Willie Fung, whose company, Top Form International, is the world’s leading bra maker. “You can never be too careful in this financial climate.”
As such, “the world should not have a false hope that China can cushion the global downturn,” by stimulating its domestic demand in a big way, said Frank Gong, head of China research for JPMorgan Chase. “The best thing China can do is keep its own economy stable.”
It’s good advice. China is not going to rescue us or the world economy. We’re going to have to get out of this crisis the old-fashioned way: by digging inside ourselves and getting back to basics — improving U.S. productivity, saving more, studying harder and inventing more stuff to export. The days of phony prosperity — I borrow cheap money from China to build a house and then borrow on that house to buy cheap paintings from China to decorate my walls and everybody is a winner — are over.
纽约时报：中国营救？不！中国并不会拯救我们
我不知道全美酒店房间里、起点房（starter home）里挂着的那些油画中有多少是中国大芬村生产的。我不知道作为世界著名的艺术品和名作仿制品批量生产中心的大芬村有没有受到美国房市泡沫破裂的冲击。不过，我应该想到。
大芬美术产业协会副会长周晓鸿（Zhou Xiaohong）向香港《星期日南华早报（Sunday Morning Post）》表示，“美国的房主和酒店通常是大芬作品的最大消费者。美国建造的房子越多，就有越多的墙壁需要我们的画。在西方房市破产之后，我们的业务冻结了。”
大芬只是构成当今世界最重要经济引擎的百万中美企业之中的一员——历史学家弗格森（Niall Ferguson）把这个经济引擎称之为中美共生体（Chimerica），中国的储蓄者与生产者和美国的借贷者与消费者之间构成这种事实上的伙伴关系。这种有着三十年历史的伙伴关系将因为目前的经济危机而面临根本重构，而且全球经济体会很受这个结果影响。
毕竟，正是因为中国愿意把从对美出口赚到的钱投资美元和财政债券，美国的利率才得以保持低位，美国人才有钱从中国买鞋、买平板电视和画，以及在美国买房。美国人然后抵押这些房子进行更多的消费——因此，我们收入没增加却能享受财富。
这种分工不仅滋养了我们各自的经济，而且也塑造了我们的政治。它让中国共产党得以告诉它的民众：“我们将保证你们的生活水平不断提高，作为回报，你们要远离政治，让我们统治。”因此中国领导人可以在没有政治改革的情况下享受双位数增长。而且它令历任美国政府（特别是现届政府）得以告诉美国人：“你们可以同时拥有大炮和黄油（即军事与经济发展并重）——免首付且免费两年的次贷、不断提高的消费和两场战争，无须加税！”
它就是这样运作的，不过它终究不行了。
摩根士丹利亚洲主席罗奇（Stephen Roach）表示，如今全球失业率暴增，“世界历史上最过分扩张的消费者”再也买不起那么多中国出口品了，我们需要多存钱，多投资，少消费，把我们大部分的信用卡扔掉，以摆脱这场危机。
但要这样的话，我们需要中国拿走我们丢弃的信用卡，发给中国民众，让他们能够购买更多中国生产的东西，购买更多来自世界各地的进口品。这是北京可以维持 8%增长率的唯一途径。中国要维持领导者与被领导者之间的政治协定，至少需要8%的增长率。而且，中国要在美国经济减速的情况下拉动全球经济的话，就更加需要这种增长。
然而，我发现这很难。中国的整个体系和文化都倾向于储蓄，而不是支出，高盛大中华区主席胡祖六（Fred Hu）表示，要改变这一点需要重大的“文化和结构”转变。
例如，在中国，买房至少要付两成首期，平均是四成。如果你抛开这些抵押，银行会追讨你的个人资产。此外，中国无法简单把生产从面向美国市场转向中国消费者。中国没有多少村民可以买得起400美元的网球鞋和圣诞树饰物。
而且，中国没有真正的社会保障、医疗保险和失业保险。没有社会安全网络，中国人怎能不存钱？世界著名内衣制造商黛丽斯国际有限公司（Top Form International）的老板冯炜尧（Willie Fung）表示，每天打开报纸都看到工厂倒闭或者供应商破产的消息，在这样的经济环境下，怎样谨慎都不为过。
同样，摩根大通中国研究部主管龚方雄（Frank Gong）表示，世界不应该错误地希望中国可以通过大规模地刺激内需来缓和全球经济低迷，中国所能做的最好的事情就是保持自己的经济稳定。
这是一个很好的建议。中国并不会拯救我们或拯救世界经济。我们将不得不用老法子摆脱这场危机：内省，回归根本——提高美国的生产力，多储蓄，努力研究，并发明更多可以出口的东西。从中国取得廉价贷款去建造房子，然后抵押这些房子去购买中国廉价油画以装饰墙壁，人人都是赢家——这种虚假繁荣的岁月已经一去不复返了。（作者 THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN）（原题：中国营救？不！）
读者赞同最多的几条留言
本帖最后由 luyi99 于 2008-12-24 03:56 编辑译者注： 由于水平不够，有的留言内容我不是很明白，希望大家帮忙指正。
December 21, 2008 9:38 am
Those athletic shoes that retail for $400 in the United States are most likely for sale for $20 in China, which may still be a stretch for three fourths of the Chinese population. If American consumers knew the actual cost of production, there would be riots in the streets.
The missing point is how many American consumers like me avoid buying products made in China as a personal protest of the end of my former career due to offshoring, Wall Street imposed consolidations and/or leveraged buyouts that beggared highly productive and profitable manufacturing companies measured solely on 'shareholder value'. Start by changing that paradigm to 'stakeholder value'. Include measures of human and intellectual capital before the finance guys cut the deal.
A neighbor's daughter was recently starting out in my NYC apartment. She apparently managed to burn three of my Farberware pots that I have been using for more than thirty years and are actually marked "Made in The Bronx".
She does not understand why I refuse her offer of Chinese-made replacements. Nor does she understand why I stockpiled 100% cotton Made in the U.S.A. sheets and towels in 2004. The quality is better, and I find it obscene that the U.S. government subsidizes cotton exports so that our sheets and towels can be made in China.
America needs to re-industrialize. Comparative advantage theory has been abused by the MBAs for thirty years.
— Karen, NYC
Recommend Recommended by 135 Readers
在美国卖400美元一双的运动鞋在中国的售价可能只有20美元，但对中国四分之三的人口来说仍然有点贵。如果美国消费者知道它们的生产实际成本，那将引发一场街头骚乱。
没人注意到，有多少像我这样的美国消费者不购买中国生产的产品,作为因为外包失业之后个人的抗议活动。华尔街实行合并和（或）杠杆收购，使得高产量和高盈利的生产企业陷于贫困，只因为“股东价值” 。我们需要改变这种模式为“利益相关者的价值”。包括在金融人士达成交易之前采取措施保护人力和智力资本。
最近一个邻居的女儿从我在纽约的公寓着手。她设法烧了我用了30年的三个罐子，它们上头写着“布朗克斯（纽约市的一个区）制造”。
她不明白为什么我拒绝了她换给我中国生产替代品的建议。她也不理解为什么2004年我大量贮藏美国生产的全棉床单和浴巾。它们的质量更好。可恶的美国政府补贴棉产品出口以至于我们的床单和浴巾可以在中国生产。
美国需要重新工业化。相对优势理论被工商管理硕士们滥用了30年。
纽约市的凯伦
135名读者赞同她/他的发言
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December 21, 2008 9:03 am
I don't know why you seem to believe compensating for lost American consumption with increased Chinese consumption is any sort of solution to the global economic crisis. Consuming too much is what got us into this problem into the first place. The solution is to move away from an economy that consumes material things to one that encourages people to be happy with enough. And that's not only promises long-term sustainable growth for the economy, but for people and for the planet, too.
— Mordi, Seattle
Recommend Recommended by 90 Readers
我不知道为什么你认为增加消费中国产品以补偿美国下降的消费量是解决全球经济危机的一个方法。消费过多是我们陷入麻烦的第一原因。解决方法是摆脱消耗物质的经济，鼓励人们知足常乐。这不仅保证长期的经济持续增长，同时也是对人民和对整个地球的保障。
西雅图的摩尔迪
90名读者赞同她/他的发言
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December 21, 2008 9:50 am
"The days of phony prosperity" ... there are still more than a few of us who A) bought homes we could afford; B) paid our mortgages in a timely manner; C) learned the hard way early in life and ditched the credit cards, trying to save money; and, yet, D) are in the same hell hole as everyone else in America.
The bottom line here, and across the world, is to curb GREED at the top. Jobs can't be shunted all over the planet to the lowest, most desperate bidder while the upper corporate crust weeps at ONLY owning a half-dozen homes and a private jet or two and only being able to afford a quarter-million-dollar Christmas party.
We don't expect China to bail us out. Frankly, I think we've given up hope of anyone bailing us out. Three decades of shipping our jobs elsewhere so the caviar could flow at the top has annestetized generations of media-hypnotized, rah-rah America.
And, by the way, we don't save because our medical system is just one rung down the greed ladder from corporate America. It has bankrupted us.
Don't worry about China picking up the slack in the markets. Worry about the fact that our jobs have been disappearing for decades ... and public works won't help those of use in our 50's who are teetering on losing everything. We aren't exactly road-building material.
We need a global fair-wage rule. Even if it does mean the next few generations of Paris Hilton's might have to actually demand pay to view their on-line trysts, in light of having no other marketable skills.
— Chris, Atlanta, GA
Recommend Recommended by 83 Readers
“仿冒品繁荣的时代"...仍旧有部分人，A）买负担得起的房子，B）及时付房贷，C)吸取教训抛弃信用卡，省钱，还有D)跟其他美国人一样处于窘困，【我不打算提及E】不买蠢笨的艺术复制品。
适用于美国和全世界的底线就是抑制上层的贪婪。工作机会不能转到其他地方给最低的最拼命的投标者，与此同时高层企业人员却因为只拥有几栋房子，一两架私人飞机，和只能花25万美元办一个圣诞晚会而哭泣。
我们不期待中国来拯救我们。坦白地说，我们已经不抱希望会有人来拯救我们。30年来工作机会不断被送出去，鱼子酱才能不断供给被媒体催眠的，大声叫好的一代美国人。
另外我们不存钱是因为我们的医疗系统只是美国企业贪婪之梯的一格而已。它使得我们破产。
不要担心中国趁低收购。想想我们几十年来失去的工作机会吧。公共建设工程也帮不了忙，当我们50岁时我们只能对着失去的一切摇晃着。我们不是铺路的材料。
我们需要一个全球公平薪水规则。哪怕Paris Hilton的下一代可能必须付钱才能看网上幽会视频，根据没有任何能赚钱的技术。
亚特兰大的克里斯
83名读者赞同她/他的发言
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December 21, 2008 9:38 am
"...We’re going to have to get out of this crisis the old-fashioned way: by digging inside ourselves and getting
back to basics — improving U.S. productivity, saving more, studying harder and inventing more stuff to export."
No. We are going to have to first pray that after actively destroying the country we will be able to survive.
Basics:
Do not enrich other nations by destroying your nation.
Do not ship factories overseas.
Do not ship jobs overseas.
Do not destroy your lead in software development by giving it to others.
Do not listen to columnists like Tom Freidman that advocates against the above basics.
Remember that cute tv program of Tom's with smiles at the Indians practicing saying "turtle" in order to allow them to have jobs from Americans companies instead of Americans.
— Bob Sallamack, New Jersey
Recommend Recommended by 77 Reader
“我们将不得不用老法子摆脱这场危机：内省，回归根本——提高美国的生产力，多储蓄，努力研究，并发明更多可以出口的东西。”
不。我们应该在摧毁了我们可幸存的国家之后，先祷告。
基本原理：
不要让其他国家通过毁灭你的国家来变得富有
不要在海外建厂
不要把工作机会送到海外
不要把软件给其他人而失去自己的领先地位
不要听违反了以上原理的专栏作家的话，比如本文作者。
还记得汤姆的可爱电视节目吗？为了从美国公司得到工作，工作中的印度人说着“乌龟”。
纽泽西的鲍勃
77名读者赞同她/他的发言 本帖最后由 rlsrls08 于 2008-12-24 01:19 编辑
作者介绍
Thomas L. Friedman
Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times
Thomas L. Friedman won the 2002 Pulitzer Prize for commentary, his third Pulitzer for The New York Times. He became the paper's foreign-affairs columnist in 1995. Previously, he served as chief economic correspondent in the Washington bureau and before that he was the chief White House correspondent. In 2005, Mr. Friedman was elected as a member of the Pulitzer Prize Board.
Mr. Friedman joined The Times in 1981 and was appointed Beirut bureau chief in 1982. In 1984 Mr. Friedman was transferred from Beirut to Jerusalem, where he served as Israel bureau chief until 1988. Mr. Friedman was awarded the 1983 Pulitzer Prize for international reporting (from Lebanon) and the 1988 Pulitzer Prize for international reporting (from Israel).
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2006/04/02/opinion/friedman-ts-190.jpg
托马斯 弗里德曼2002年因写评论赢得了普利策奖，这是他为纽约时报赢得的第三个普利策奖。他自1995年起成为纽约时报的外交事务专栏作家。此前，他在华盛顿分社担任经济记者，在此之前，他是白宫首席记者。 2005年弗里德曼先生当选为普利策奖委员会成员。
弗里德曼先生于1981年加入泰晤士报，1982年被任命为贝鲁特分社社长。1984年他从贝鲁特调到了耶路撒冷，担任以色列分社社长直至1988年。 因为黎巴嫩的国际报道他获得了1983年的普利策奖，以及1988年的普利策奖因为报道以色列。 我们很多人都不怕经济危机，十几亿人的消费群体，必然可以拯救，也一定能拯救我们自己的经济，靠强大的内需，至少我们很多优秀的企业可以存活，这是一次经济牌的洗牌，谁能活到最后？我相信很多中小企业会倒闭，而大鳄们依然会存活，而且等经济危机结束，大鳄必将更加强大，同时又有一批小企业出现，等待下一次经济危机的到来，这就是经济的进化论。
衷心的希望国内的企业能熬过这场严冬，也希望我们的同胞尽量购买国货，要知道民族经济要是亡啦，你以后可能连平时瞧不起的国货都买不起啦，一个人买一块钱，全国就是十多亿，面对经济危机，你要拯救的不仅仅是那些你瞧不起的暴发户，还有你自己，和这个国家的经济。 顶楼上的！不过你放心吧。。。中国老百姓的购买力强大无比。。。
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