华尔街日报 世界还不够乱吗，俄罗斯专家预测美国灭亡
本帖最后由 小竹篓 于 2008-12-31 22:55 编辑登载媒体：华尔街日报12/29 2008
标题：世界还不够乱吗，俄罗斯专家预测美国灭亡
As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
链接: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html
翻译方式: 原创
莫斯科， 俄罗斯学者Igor Panarin十年前就预测美国会在2010年分崩离析。他承认在大部分的时间里，没人把他的预测当回事---经济和社会伦理道德的崩溃引发美国内战并最终导致美国瓦解。现在， 他找到了热切的听众---俄罗斯国家媒体。在最近几周，他每天要接受两次采访， 谈论他的预测。 “这是前所未有的，不过我相信人们还会越来越关注。”Panarin教授说道。50岁的Panarin教授不是一个边缘人物，他是前克格勃的分析专家，现在担任俄罗斯外交学院的部门主任，培养未来的外交家。 他受邀参加克林姆林宫的招待会，给学生们开讲座， 出版著作，还是媒体知名的俄美关系专家。
从导致中东地区不稳定到全球经济危机，克里姆林宫把一切都怪在美国头上，他们乐于听到关于美国黯淡前景的预测。 Panarin先生的观点也符合克里姆林宫的论调：俄罗斯在经历了20世纪90年代的衰弱后，又在世界舞台上有了举足轻重的地位。90年苏联政权解体时，很多人曾担忧俄国会在经济上，政治上彻底崩溃，瓦解成几块独立的地区。愉快地操着嗡嗡作响的电锯，这位彬彬有礼的Panarin先生强调他不讨厌美国人。不过他警告美国人，他们的未来很可怕。
“美国瓦解的可能性目前是55-45%。有些人乐于见到这样的事发生，但俄罗斯可不是这样。” Panarin先生面无表情地补充道。俄罗斯可能因此而获得更大的世界影响力，但是经济会受到损失。“现在俄罗斯对美元很依赖，和美国的贸易关系也很紧密。”
Panarin先生在他的理念里描述，明年秋天，美元体系崩溃，大规模的移民，经济衰退，
社会伦理道德的丧失，这些因素将引发一场内战。大约在2010年六月末或七月初，美国会分成六个部分，而阿拉斯加也会重新回到俄罗斯手中。
对Panarin先生观点的报道充斥于克里姆林宫控制的国家媒体，一些国内的专家也就此广泛展开讨论。在外交部最近的一次研讨会上，他还阐述了这一理论。俄罗斯顶级的国际关系学校还聘请他做重要的演讲人。在国家电视频道Rossiya中，他的评论里穿插着美国无家可归人群的镜头。他的身影还出现在俄罗斯英语宣传频道“今日俄罗斯”里。Panarin先生启示录似的观点“明确反映出当前俄罗斯社会浓烈的反美情绪，比苏联时期还要严重。” Vladimir Pozner，俄罗斯知名电视撰稿人说。Pozner先生和其他一些俄罗斯评论员，美国事务专家对Panarin先生的预测一笑置之。“严肃认真的人不会理睬这些疯狂的想法”。俄罗斯美国加拿大事务研究所负责人Sergei Rogov说，他认为Panarin的预测根本是无稽之谈。
Panarin先生和许多俄政府高官一样，为苏联政权的克格勃工作过。他的办公室位于莫斯科繁华地段，处处洋溢着他的国家自豪感：墙上挂着克格勃的继任机构FSB的徽章，
到处摆着沙皇俄国的象征—双头鹰雕像。Panari教授1976年开始在克格勃工作，苏联时代后期，他获得了政治学的博士学位，并研究美国经济学，为FAPSI工作，然后任职俄罗斯国家安全局。他说他预测到了俄罗斯总统叶利钦的上台，至于细节，那是机密。
1998年，在奥地利林兹召开的关于信息战争和利用数据打倒对手的会议上，他首次向与会的400名代表阐述了2010年美国崩溃论。Panari教授回忆当时的情形：“我一按键, 屏幕上的美国地图就分裂成几块, 上百人吃惊得叫出声来。大部分观众对此持怀疑态度，
他们不相信我。”演示结束后，许多代表请他在瓦解的美国地图图片上签名。
他在对FAPSI提供的数据进行分类后得出这个推断。他预计美国经济，财政和人口的发展趋向于激发政治和社会危机。当矛盾深化，美国的一些富裕的州会扣留联邦政府的拨款然后迅速脱离联邦。社会动乱频发并发展成内战。美国会根据族群分裂，外国力量也会乘机入侵。 以加利福尼亚州为核心的所谓的“加利福尼亚共和国”会并入中国版图或者受中国控制。德克萨斯州和周边的一些州则成为“德克萨斯共和国”，要么成为墨西哥的一部分要么受墨西哥控制。华盛顿特区和纽约则作为“大西洋美洲”加入欧盟。加拿大会抢走美国北部的一些州，Panarin教授称之“中北美洲共和国”。夏威夷成为日本或中国的保护国。阿拉斯加则重回俄罗斯怀抱。
教授办公室墙上挂着一幅卫星拍摄的图片。图中，把阿拉斯加从俄罗斯的西伯利亚分隔开的白令海峡细得像一根线。“这幅画挂在这可不是没有缘由的。俄罗斯拥有阿拉斯加是合理的，曾经在很长的一段时间里，它是俄罗斯帝国的一部分，”教授意味深长地笑着说。
今年秋季，他发表在俄罗斯最有影响力的日报之一Izvestia上的文章再次引起人们对他的预测的兴趣。在这篇文章中，他重申了美国瓦解论，称美国外债为“金字塔阴谋”，并认为俄罗斯和中国会取代华盛顿成为全球财经的较准器。“美国人希望当选总统奥巴马能创造奇迹，不过当春天来临时，人们会明明白白认识到，世界上没有奇迹。”他在文中写道。
在白宫12月的记者招待会上，有记者就此问白宫对Panarin教授美国瓦解论的反应。
“我不得不拒绝对此做任何评论。”发言人Dana Perino在一片哄笑声中回答。对Panarin 教授而言， Dana Perino女士的话另有深意。“她的措辞暗示白宫非常仔细认真地对待我的观点。”
Panarin.教授深信人们会更认真对待他的理论。他说一些像他一样的人很准确地预言过类似的激烈变动，比如法国政治学者Emmanuel Todd。Todd先生提前15年（即1976）就准确预测到了苏联的瓦解。
当时人们也是嘲笑他。
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-AO116_RUSPRO_NS_20081228191715.gif 原文:
MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.
In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.
But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.
A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.
"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.
Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.
In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.
Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."
Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.
Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.
The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."
In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.
"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."
At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.
He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.
California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.
"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.
Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.
Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.
For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.
The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin. 楼主辛苦咯~~~
不过，说美国灭亡，不咋滴相信呀~~~ 天方夜谭！ 呵呵,翻来博大家一笑
新年快乐
09年加油 可能吗？开玩笑。 呵呵，难得华尔街日报幽默一把！
大洋彼岸的美国朋友：新年好～ 偶也开玩笑一下:
嘿嘿, 美国的黑人聚一块成立一个国家, 白人聚一块成为一个国家, 华裔和其他族裔聚一块成立一个国家, 同性恋们聚一块成立一个国家.... 美式独联体
大家新年快乐~ yy太厉害了啊 = 现阶段。。。仅供yy吧。。。= 美国是世界大乱的根源，美国灭亡是很好的解决方案. 此预测题，怪有趣。哈哈。 这哥们估计是伏特加喝多了 这怎么可能,就是衰退也没那么快吧! 美國是一個烏合之國，並沒有國族文化傳統。所以解體也不是什麽不可能的。只是要研究一下它的烏合程序，知其然也要知道其所以然。烏合之衆的解體並不是危言聳聽。美國憲法規定必須效忠美利堅，一點也不民主。 纯粹的胡言乱语。
看来俄罗斯砖家的水平也若干。 囧，但愿分裂其他国家的刽子手希望也能落得这样一个境地 虽然近似于神话，但我也打心底希望美国解体，当然在美国解体的时候拉上俄罗斯垫背最好。 美国人之所以团结，是因为他们的国家非常强大，而且有着引以为豪的民主自由的制度，如果一旦经济崩溃，他们所依赖的强大国力瓦解，分裂是自然而然的事情，因为美国并不是一个单一民族，一旦他们共同的利益不复存大，他们维一的出路就是分裂！但是现在说还太早，美国现在依然强大！
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