华盛顿邮报：中国成世界第三大经济体
本帖最后由 yangfuguang 于 2009-1-15 11:51 编辑【原文标题】China Grows to World's Third-Largest Economy【来源网址】http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/14/AR2009011401456.html?hpid=topnews【原文】
China Grows to World's Third-Largest Economy
By Ariana Eunjung Cha
Washington Post Foreign Service
Wednesday, January 14, 2009; 10:47 AM
BEIJING, Jan. 14 -- China leapfrogged over Germany to become the world's third-largest economy in 2007, sooner than predicted, underscoring how quickly the concentration of global economic power has shifted.
Although earlier estimates had put growth of China's gross domestic product that year at 11.9 percent, revised figures released Wednesday by the government statistics bureau show that its economy actually expanded by 13 percent to $3.38 trillion. That compares with Germany's 2007 GDP of $3.32 trillion.
"It was inevitable," said Ting Lu, a Merrill Lynch economist based in Hong Kong.
Whether the growth trajectory will continue, however, has been complicated by the global recession, which has already prompted massive layoffs and waves of company closures, especially across southeastern China, the heartland of its export-driven economy. If China were to continue to grow at its current rate, economists say it could surpass Japan in as soon as three years and the United States in 18 years to become the world's No. 1 economy.
In 2007, the United States remained the world's largest economy with a GDP of $13.8 trillion and Japan the second-largest with a $4.38 trillion GDP, according to calculations based on an annual average of daily exchange rates by Merrill Lynch.
China is one of the few major economies that is on track to have positive GDP growth this year. Merrill Lynch, for example, calculates that China will have a GDP growth of 8 percent as compared with declines of 2.8 percent for the United States, 1.3 percent for Japan and 0.6 percent for the European Union.
"In 2007, the gap between the growth rates of China and other big countries was huge. Actually in 2009 the gap between will be even bigger," Merrill Lynch's Lu said.
But even if China achieves a projected 8 percent rate of growth this year, that might be insufficient to stop the wave of company bankruptcies and layoffs that have alarmed China's leaders. Economic data released earlier this week only added to the pessimism: Exports dropped 2.8 percent in December from the same month a year ago, the sharpest decline in a decade.
In the early days of the global economic crisis, some economists had debated whether China would serve as an engine that would keep Asia from being pulled into the turmoil affecting other parts of the world. Pakistan, which was suffering from a balance of payments crisis, even came to China looking for a loan. But this fall China found its own economy cooling so fast that its leaders issued statements saying that the best thing it could do to help the world economy was to help itself.
Coming into this global slowdown, 30 years of capitalist-style reforms pioneered by Deng Xiaoping had transformed China from an isolated and impoverished nation into one of the world's great economic powers.
Years of white-hot, double-digit growth driven by exports and investment went hand in hand with achievements in politics, science and engineering and the arts.
Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist for Citigroup, said that China grew so quickly because it had the "advantage of backwardness."
"As China used to be a very backward country, there was huge potential for the economic and technological development," Huang said.
China has trumpeted its achievements in the past few years especially: It hosted the Olympics and pulled off its first spacewalk, and native sons and daughters such as Jet Li and Zhang Ziyi became Hollywood darlings. Its engineers have built the world's the largest building (the new Beijing airport), the longest trans-oceanic bridge (connecting Shanghai to Hangzhou), longest plateau railway (to Tibet), the fastest train (Shanghai's "maglev") and the largest dam (Three Gorges).
China has been using its increasing wealth to buy political clout by investing in underdeveloped parts of Asia, Latin America and Africa. It is gaining influence in global economic institutions such as the Group of Eight and the International Monetary Fund, which have long been dominated by Western powers. It is now the biggest holder of U.S. Treasury securities.
Economists said that despite all the wealth implied by such a large GDP, China should still be considered a poor country.
Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government-affiliated think tank, emphasized that widespread unemployment and rural poverty are still major problems. China's 1.3 billion residents have a per capita GDP of about $2,500 while Germany's 82 million inhabitants have a per capita GDP of $40,400.
If we look at the per capita figures we still have a long way to go," Yi said.
Researcher Liu Liu contributed to this report.
中国成世界第三大经济体
Ariana Eunjung Cha华盛顿邮报驻外事务处周三，1月14号，2009，10：47
北京14号报道——中国在2007年超越德国，成为世界第三大经济体，这比预期的要早，表明世界经济中心转移是多么迅速。尽管先前估计中国GDP去年增幅是11.9%，但周三政府统计局修正的数字是13%，使得GDP总额达到3.38万亿美元，这比德国2007年的3.32万亿要多。
香港美林证券的经济学家丁路（音）说：“这是不可避免的”。
不管这种增长能否继续，但是，这种增长已经被全球衰退给复杂化了，它使得特别是在中国南方中国出口的中心地带出现了大量的失业和工厂关闭狂潮。如果中国继续按照这个速度增长，经济学家说，那么3年之后将超越日本，18年之后就将超越美国，成为世界第一大经济体。
根据美林依据一年的每日平均汇率计算，2007年，美国凭借13.8万亿美元的GDP规模依然是世界第一大经济体，日本以4.38万亿位列第二。中国是为数不多的GDP依然保持活力的大经济体。美林计算出，中国今年增幅将会是8%，远高于美国的2.8%，日本的1.3%，欧盟的0.6%。美林的陆先生说：“2007年，中国和其他大经济体的增长率的差距很大，实际上，在09年，这种差距会更大”。
不过就算中国今年的增长率能达到8%，这也不能够阻止令高层警觉的公司破产潮和大量的失业人口。经济增速在本周早些时候减少了，这增加了悲观情绪：出口在12月与去年同期相比下降了2.8%，这是十年来下降最厉害的。
在全球金融危机爆发时，一些经济学家在争论中国能不能充当保持亚洲不被世界其他地方的混乱所影响的经济动力源。陷入贸易收差危机中的巴基斯坦甚至向中国借钱。但秋天中国发现自己的经济下降也是这么明显，所以她的领导人说，中国对世界经济能做的最好的事情就是帮助自己。
面对此次的全球衰退，由邓小平主导的资本主义式的改革已经使中国从一个封闭贫弱的国家变成世界最大的经济体之一。多年以来白热化的两位数的由出口和投资带来的增长，也使得政治、科学、工程学和艺术有了长足的发展。
花旗银行亚洲经济学家黄一平（音）说，中国增长如此迅速是因为她有‘落后的优势’。黄说：“中国以前是那么贫弱，所以经济和技术的发展潜力是巨大的”。
中国在过去几年特别地宣传了自己的成就：举办了奥林匹克运动会，进行第一次太空行走，李连杰和章子怡成为好莱坞的宠儿。他们的工程师建造了世界最大的建筑（北京新机场），最长的跨海大桥（链接上海和杭州），最长的高原铁路（到西藏），最快的列车（上海磁悬浮列车），最大的水坝（三峡大坝）
中国使用自己不断增长的财富在不发达的亚洲、拉美、非洲投资，一次换取政治影响。她对全球经济体制，如长期受控与西方的八国集团和国际货币基金组织都有影响。中国现在还是美国国债最大的持有者。
经济学家说，尽管巨大的GDP带来了这么多的财富，中国仍然是一个贫穷的国家。政府下属的智囊团中国社会科学院的研究员易宪容（音）强调广泛的失业和农村的贫困依然是很大的问题。中国13亿人人均GDP大约是2500美元，而德国8200万人的人均GDP是40400美元。
易说：“如果我们看看人均数字，就会发现我们还有很长的路要走”。
（研究员刘浏（音）对此文有贡献）
这篇文章我咋看得云里雾里的！
究竟是哪年追上德国？是2007年还是2008年？“去年”是哪年？ 中国13亿人人均GDP大约是2500美元，而德国8200万人的人均GDP是40400美元。
中国的人均GDP如果赶上他们那将是个什么天！ 2# lezaiyisheng 文章的文意有点混乱，按照昨天中国国家统计局公佈的结果，中国GDP，07年就超过德国；另外，依照08年的中德GDP预估增长率，08年是第二年超过德国。 10年能超日本！！！！！！！！！！！ 我怎么记得08年还是第四啊？？
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