英国《经济学家》：中国:从出口过多到扩大内需
【原文标题】China's trade Surplus to requirements【中文标题】中国:从出口过多到扩大内需
【登载媒体】英国《经济学家》
【来源地址】http://www.economist.com/research/articlesbysubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=478048&story_id=12948617
【翻译】 湘江夏夜
China's trade Surplus to requirements
中国:从出口过多到扩大内需
Why is China’s trade surplus growing when its exports have collapsed?
为什么中国在出口已经崩溃的情况下贸易顺差仍然保持增长
THIS week revised figures revealed that China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the world’s third-biggest economy. At the start of last year China also looked set to become the world’s biggest exporter, but a slump in exports in the final months of the year meant they remained smaller than Germany’s. China’s exports tumbled by 13% (in dollar terms) in the fourth quarter, leaving them 3% lower in December than a year earlier. Despite this, China’s trade surplus rose to a record $457 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter—50% bigger than in the same period of 2007. What is going on?
上周公布修正后的数据显示，2007年中国超过了德国成为世界第三大经济体。去年年初中国期待成为世界上最大的出口国，但最后几个月出口下滑意味着他们的出口仍然小于德国。第四季度中国出口下降了13 ％ （按美元计算），12月的出口较去年同期低3 ％。尽管这样，中国第四季度的贸易盈余达到创纪录的四千五百七十零万点零万美元，比2007年同期多了1半。这究竟是怎么回事？
In the first half of 2008 China’s trade surplus did indeed shrink (see chart). But since then, although exports slumped, imports fell by much more—down by 21% in the 12 months to December. The slide in both exports and imports was exacerbated by the global credit freeze, which has made it harder for companies around the world to get letters of credit to guarantee payment. Imports were also dragged down by cheaper oil and commodity prices, and by weaker imports of materials and components used to make exports (over 50% of total imports).
在2008年上半年中国的贸易顺差确实缩小了 。但自那时候起，尽管出口在下降但是进口下降得更多--下降了21 ％ 。全球信用危机使企业更难在世界各地获得保证付款的信用证明,加剧了出口和进口的下滑。廉价石油和商品价格，以及疲弱的原材料和零部件拖累了进口（超过50％的进口总额）
But a more worrying reason why China bought less from the rest of the world is that its domestic demand has weakened. Consumer spending and manufacturing investment have so far held up reasonably well, but construction—a big user of imported raw materials—has collapsed.
但更令人担忧是中国减少了从世界其他地方进口,原因是国内需求减弱。消费支出和制造业投资迄今已进行得相当不错，但建造业这个进口原材料最多的行业已经崩溃了。
With most of the world in recession, China’s exports will continue to slide this year. Nomura forecasts a drop of 6%—the first annual decline for more than 25 years. Imports, on the other hand, are expected to increase. By mid-year, the government’s planned massive increase in infrastructure spending will boost imports of raw materials and machinery. If so, China’s trade surplus will shrink in 2009.
随着世界上大多数国家陷入经济衰退，今年中国出口将继续下滑。野村证券(日本)预测下降6 ％ ,这是25年以来第一次下降。另一方面，进口预计将增加。到年中，政府计划中大规模增加基础设施方面的支出将增加进口的原材料和机械。这样，2009年中国的贸易顺差将缩小。
The collapse in exports and the consequent job losses in southern China have triggered speculation that the government might try to push down the value of the yuan. But not only would this provoke a protectionist backlash from America’s new government, it would also do little to help producers. China’s problem is weak foreign demand, not competitiveness. The best way for China to support its economy—and to help unwind global trade imbalances—is to bolster domestic demand.
出口的崩溃和华南地区就业机会的损失使人猜测中国政府可能会试图让人民币的汇率贬值。但是这不仅将挑起美国的新政府的保护主义，也帮不到制造业。中国的问题是海外需求疲软，而不是竞争力。推动国内需求才是振兴经济，并帮助解决全球贸易失衡的最佳方式.
One piece of good news this week is that, following interest-rate cuts and the government’s scrapping of credit
restrictions, total bank loans jumped by 19% in the 12 months to December, up from growth of 14% last summer. China is perhaps the only big economy where credit growth has heated up in recent months. If that is sustained, it could help to boost domestic spending.
这个星期有一个好消息:降息和政府取消信贷限制，银行贷款总额从去年夏天14 ％增长到了19 ％ 。在最近几个月中国也许是信贷增长的唯一的大经济体。如果这种情况持续，它将有助于促进国内消费。
China certainly cannot rely on exports any more. Becoming the world’s biggest exporter will be of little comfort if global trade is spiralling downwards.
中国当然不能再依赖出口了。如果全球贸易急剧下降,成为世界最大出口国将没有什么好处。
页:
[1]