RealClearWorld：停止攻击中国吧！
【原文标题】End the China Bashing【登载媒体】realclearworld.com
【来源地址】http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2009/02/end_the_china_bashing.html
【译者】荡漾
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，转载请注明译者及出处，谢谢！
【译文】
一些中国读者向我表达了听到群情齐声为美国经济衰退指责中国的震惊。他们想知道是否这意味着保护主义重新抬头的序曲。
中国有不少地方有理由被攻击，例如其政治体系、对苏丹及津巴布韦的支持等等，但不该为美国的经济衰退背黑锅。尽管因为美国需要中国的财政支持还很难看出对中国的攻击将转变成保护主义，但绝不应该低估人们在恐慌期造成自我损害的能力。由美国众议院批准的经济刺激计划中禁止使用外国钢铁的“购买美国货”规定就是很好的提醒（证明）。
攻击中国的人认为中国通过操纵汇率保证其出口的廉价而鼓励美国人将其消化掉，接着中国将出口收入的一部分加上其他储蓄投资美国资产，促使利率下降进而加剧了房地产泡沫。随着口口相传持这种观点的人包括前任及现任财长、美联储主席、一部分国会议员，更别提一些知名的评论家。他们声称因为中国人储蓄太多因此美国人消费得太多（这可不是开玩笑！）。
不错，过去10年来美国的实际个人储蓄率已接近于零（尽管因衰退有所增长），而中国的储蓄率在30%-40%之间。如果算上政府及社会储蓄，中国的储蓄率接近50%，几乎是美国的5倍。
但中国储蓄大量收入远在美国房地产价格暴涨之前已经开始，在泡沫破裂之后还持续了2年多的时间。认为中国的储蓄引起了低利率并加大美国房地产泡沫的想法并不符合事实。据国际货币基金组织的世界经济展望显示2003至2007年间不发达国家的储蓄持续上升，而同一时间美国世纪初低得可笑的抵押贷款利率则稳步提高。
《资本主义的政治错误导向》一书的作者、经济学家Robert Murphy在一篇文章中指出当美国消费者因梦想房产永远增值而持续狂欢的时候，世界储蓄利率实际上低于上世纪八十年代及九十年代的大多数年份。
美国的金融动乱及随之而来的经济衰退是本国的产物。有人和我持相同的观点认为消费者的狂热及华尔街的失态源于美联储宽松的货币政策及贷款准入门槛的一降再降；也有人认为金融市场失常的关键决策是由当时（看似）相当清醒的美国人自己做出的。中国既未调整美国的利率，也没有增加货币供应量，更没有通过《社区再投资法案》（修订版）或是《联邦住宅企业金融安全和健全法》。还有人说借助1999年通过的《金融服务现代化法案》达到放宽美国金融市场目的的也并不是中国。
如果哪个国家的政府像小布什政府那样制定昂贵的国内国外政策助长赤字与债务，而消费者还跟风，那最终难免身陷困局。而另一个国家决定将一半的收入储存起来投资未来的事实理应令美国人骄傲——美国资本主义的信仰终于传播至异教徒了！如果这些投资国不是中国、日本和英国，美国早就宣告破产了。为了使长期来做着储蓄这一最聪明事情的中国能“拯救”美国人，考虑到美国正盘算的新债规模，那些攻击中国的人应该清楚美国将比以往更需要国外储蓄。
当然中国的经济并非无可挑剔，例如不负责任地增加货币供应量。正如本周《经济学人》指出的，中国正面对的经济滑坡的主因并不是对美出口的下降。但美国仍不应该为自己的错误虚构罪魁祸首来指责。
相反，美国人应该接受“放纵之路通往智慧的殿堂”仅仅存在于William Blake的散文中这一事实。现实生活中勤劳工作、节俭生活以及智慧投资才是人们通往天堂的道路。
【原文】
By Alvaro Vargas Llosa
WASHINGTON -- Several Chinese readers have contacted me to express astonishment at the chorus of voices blaming China for the U.S. recession. They wonder: Is this the preamble of a protectionist backlash?
There is plenty that China deserves to be bashed for -- its political system and its backing of Sudan and Zimbabwe, for instance -- but not the U.S. recession. Yet although it is hard to see how China-bashing would translate into protectionism when Washington needs Beijing's financial help, one should never underestimate people's capacity to self-inflict damage in times of panic. The "buy American" provision barring the use of foreign steel and iron in the economic stimulus package approved by the U.S. House of Representatives is a stark reminder.
China-bashers maintain that Beijing cheapened its exports through currency manipulation, encouraging Americans to devour them; the Chinese then invested part of that money and other savings in U.S. assets, prompting the drop in interest rates that in turn fueled the housing bubble. With variations, this view is shared by the previous and the current secretaries of the Treasury, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, some members of Congress, not to mention some well-known commentators. They claim that the U.S. has been spending too much because China has been saving too much (I kid you not!).
Yes, in the last 10 years the real personal saving rate in the U.S. has been close to zero (although it is now going up in the midst of the recession), while that of China has been somewhere between 30 percent and 40 percent. If we add government and corporate savings, China's rate has been close to 50 percent, almost five times that of the U.S.
But China has been saving much of its income since long before U.S. home prices skyrocketed, and it continues to save more than two years after the bubble burst. The idea that China's savings caused the low interest rates that pumped America's housing bubble does not square with the fact that, according to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, the savings of the underdeveloped nations continued to rise between 2003 and 2007, when mortgage rates rose steadily in the U.S. after their ridiculously low years earlier in the decade.
As economist Robert Murphy, the author of "The Politically Incorrect Guide to Capitalism," maintains in an article, when American consumers went on a binge because they dreamed that their houses would appreciate forever, the world's saving rate was actually lower than in the 1980s and much of the '90s.
The U.S. financial mess and the ensuing recession were home-grown. Whether one subscribes, as I do, to the view that the consumers' frenzy and Wall Street's lunacy originated in the Federal Reserve's policy of easy money and the lowering of lending standards or, as many others think, in financial deregulation, the key decisions were made by Americans who were (or seemed) perfectly awake. China did not set U.S. interest rates, increase the money supply and pass laws such as the updated Community Reinvestment Act or the Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act. And -- if one subscribes to the other view -- China is not the one that deregulated U.S. financial markets through laws such as the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999.
When a government -- as the Bush administration did -- engages in expensive foreign and domestic policies that feed on deficits and debt, and consumers decide to follow suit, you eventually run into trouble. The fact that another country decides to save half of its income and invest in the future should make Americans proud: The gospel of U.S. capitalism has finally spread to the unbelievers! Had it not been for Chinese, Japanese and British investors, the U.S. would have gone bankrupt. Given the amount of new debt that Washington is contemplating in order to "rescue"Americans from the smartest thing they have done in a long time -- save some money and try to adjust -- China-bashers should be aware that they will need foreign savers more than ever.
None of this means that Beijing's economy is above reproach. For one, China increased the money supply irresponsibly and is now facing an economic slowdown that, as The Economist showed this week, is not primarily due to the drop in exports to the United States. But Washington should not blame the wrong culprit for its mistakes.
Instead, Americans should accept that "the road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom" only in William Blake's prose. In real life, the road to paradise is that of hard work, thrift and creative investment.
【截图】
新一轮的贸易保护可能要到来了，我相信国家会有对策了。为什么外国人一有事情首先怀疑的是别人，而我们却是一有事情总是先检讨自己。这就是文化上的区别。 楼上正解，文化不同，西方人张扬，中国人内敛。不过我们适当还要吸取西方的强盗逻辑，必要的时候一定要有自己的声音。 嘿嘿，看那个截图中间的广告，“google提供的广告”。。。 沙发说得对。美国的繁荣早就存在巨大的黑洞了。大家都挣一个花两个，生活水平当然高，市场当然繁荣。但这种表面的繁荣尽早会崩溃的。如果美国人还意识不到这一点，那真是离死不远了。 事实上，在金融战争中，中国还是学生，并且学费一定不会少。
我更关心的是，中国何时能真正成熟起来，学费么，必须的。 同意沙发！！ 顶沙发~~
不过中国的经济确实有自己的问题，相信领导人能有新的对策~~ 贸易规则要改写了 您慢走，下次再来 之类的话
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这里面本身就有“谢谢”的内涵
这是文化的差异
为什么非要说出谢谢来呢 [现实生活中勤劳工作、节俭生活以及智慧投资才是人们通往天堂的道路。]赞成！ 外国人一有事情首先怀疑的是别人，而我们却是一有事情总是先检讨自己。---------每个聪明人都会这么做！因为怪别人于事无补，别人不可能听你使唤！还搞坏了彼此的关系。只有反省自己，及时改正自己的错误，才能在以后少吃亏或不吃亏！国家和个人都是这样的！ 正如子曰：“吾日三省吾身。” 要发出声音，中国不能沉默！ 不攻击中国，那西方那些电视台工作人员怎么活呀???????他们背后的老板给钱他，就是干这个的呀。 除了发出声音,做好自己的事最重要.老外的很多言论,实在低级到让人哭笑不得的地步,确实不愧是强盗逻辑. 东西方文化差异本身就大再加上这些人为的偏见造成了巨大的隔阂 停止攻击中国很简单
共产党下台
各位呀！政体不一样啊！他能不攻击么，现在中国接替了苏联。 中国一向是提倡宽以待人，严于律己的。西方出事都喜欢把罪名往别人身上扣（特别是政客），老喜欢把西方的不好的根源追溯到中国上来，转移国内矛盾？维护自己的地位？或许都有吧。
美国的经济衰退不是一年两年能形成的，很大一部分是他们自己内部的问题。要不是中国和日本手上买了那么多债券，美国经济老早就崩了，还在那里乱叫。 沙发板凳均正解！
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