华盛顿邮报博 中国操纵，欧洲获胜
[链接]：http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/sais/nexteurope/2009/02/china_manipulates_europe_wins.html[标题] 中国操纵，欧洲获胜
原文：
China Manipulates, Europe Wins中国操纵，欧洲获胜By Nate TaplinTim Geithner, the newly confirmed U.S. Treasury Secretary, ruffled feathers in Beijing and raised eyebrows across the Atlantic with a statement at his confirmation hearing that China has been "manipulating" its currency to gain an unfair advantage in export markets. Geithner's comments were received with predictable hostility in Beijing, but more interesting was the lukewarm response from across the Atlantic--given the European Union's own large current account deficit with China.美国新财长蒂莫·盖特纳听闻北京一直操纵货币以取得其在出口市场的有利地位后对北京表示出愤怒和对欧洲的不满.盖特纳的评论对北京来说无疑是有敌意的,但更有趣的是由于欧盟对中国巨大的货币赤字，大西洋沿岸对此反应冷淡,。A spokesperson for the EU's monetary and economic affairs commissioner simply commented that "exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals. That's all we wish to say." In other words, despite tough talk on China last year, the EU prefers not to touch this one.
欧盟货币和经济委员会发言人仅简单的表示：“汇率应该反映经济基础，这就是我们想说的。”换句话说，去年欧盟尽管在口头上对中国强硬，他们还是不愿意触及此话题。Why such caution? The issue seems to represent an obvious convergence between U.S. and European interests. European exports to China now constitute a significant growth sector in several European economies. A stronger yuan would mean cheaper European goods for Chinese consumers. And Europe is pressing its case quite strongly in other arenas--cooperating with the U.S. to win a recent WTO ruling against Chinese auto parts tariffs, the first such legal setback the Chinese have suffered since joining the WTO in 2001. 为什么这么谨慎？这个问题象征欧美利益的交叉，欧洲对中国的出口是欧洲经济体的重要组成部分，坚挺的人民币意味着欧洲商品对中国消费者更便宜。并且欧洲正在另一个竞技场上与中国较力，——与美国合作赢得对中国汽车配件关税的否决，这是中国加入2001年以来第一次遇到的法律挫折。There are several possible reasons for EU hesitancy on the currency issue. It's true that a strong yuan would make European goods cheaper in China and Chinese goods more expensive in Europe. But if the yuan were to appreciate significantly against the euro and the dollar, it would likely also appreciate against the currencies of some lower-wage Asian countries which whom China runs significant trade deficits, importing their intermediate goods to assemble into final goods which are then sold in the west. Furthermore, China would be able to buy oil and other commodities--significant contributors to the cost of Chinese goods--more cheaply, because many of these are priced in dollars. If these factors combine to push down inflation in China, especially in the export sector, this will tend to make Chinese exports more price competitive, not less--making them more attractive to European consumers.欧盟在货币政策上的迟疑有好几个原因，的确，这能使欧洲商品在中国更便宜，而中国的上坪在欧洲更贵，但如果人民币对美元和欧元快速升值，但同时也会对几个中国近出口赤字的低收入亚洲国家的货币迅速升值，——中国进口其半成品制成成品，并出口到西方国家——，此外由于许多商品以美元计价，中国能够买到更便宜的油和其他货物——中国商品成本的重要贡献者——如果这些综合因素推到中国的通货膨胀，特别是出口部门的通胀，这将使中国的出口更具竞争力，而非减少竞争力，——这使中国商品对欧洲消费者更具吸引力。 Thus the overall impact of a revaluation on the Sino-EU trade balance is somewhat hard to judge. It depends (among many other factors) on the relative size of these two effects: a stronger yuan making Chinese goods less affordable for Westerners, versus lower price inflation in Chinese export industries making them more so. It's not straightforward: between 2005 and 2008, the yuan actually appreciated by almost twenty percent against the dollar, and yet the US trade deficit with China ballooned by approximately the same amount. While this may simply suggest that the yuan needs to appreciate far more than it already has--as suggested by Geithner--it may also indicate that China's export competitiveness runs deeper than simply an undervalued currency.所以对中欧贸易平衡在评估的总体影响是很难判断的，这取决于众多因数中这两个因数的相对大小：坚挺的人民币是欧洲人更买不起中国商品与中国出口行业中的较低通胀使得欧洲人如此。这并不明了，2005至2008年期间，人民币对美元的汇率上涨20%，这可能表人民币要比现行速度更快升值，——就像盖特纳所说——这也表明中国的出口竞争力更强，而非简单的低估的人民币的作用。Finally, even if Western goods in China become significantly cheaper, the constraints on the spending of Chinese consumers (worries about healthcare, education, etc.) are generally more severe than those on Westerners, even now. This imbalance is arguably as large a contribution to China's trade surpluses as the value of its currency and is already beginning to be addressed by the Chinese authorities. In any case, given the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of further appreciation--especially in the midst of a dramatic deceleration in China--it is unsurprising that Europe's leaders are loath to risk their political capital in a confrontation with China over the yuan, especially as the US seems to be taking the lead so forcibly.最后，即使西方的商品在中国非常便宜，中国消费者消费上的束缚（对医疗，教育的担忧）比西方消费者更严重，即使现在也是如此。这种不平衡，就像中国官方已经说明的一样，就像货币价值一样对中国贸易赤字有同样的贡献。无论无何，考虑到对未来升值结果被这些不确定性左右，——尤其是在中国急剧减速之时，欧洲领导人不情愿冒着其政治资本的风险与中国人在人民币价值上针锋相对，尤其在美国强势带头的时候。
页:
[1]