美国《全美投资》：全球皆为股市而疯狂，中国亦如此
【原文标题】 The Whole World is Nutty about Stock Investing even China【中文标题】 全球皆为股市而疯狂，中国亦如此
【刊登媒体】 美国《全美投资》
【来源地址】 http://allamericaninvestor.blogspot.com/2009/02/whole-world-is-nutty-about-stock.html
【译者】 xiongshu
【译文】
The Whole World is Nutty about Stock Investing even China
全球皆为股市而疯狂，中国亦如此
Capitalism, Communism, greed.
无论资本主义，还是共产主义，贪婪的本质相同。
This one really caught me by surprise. It appears that Chinese companies are using bank loans to invest in stocks. In fact, it looks like they are doing it in record amounts. This could explain why the Shanghai Composite Index was the best performing index in the world this year. This also reminds me of the nuttiness in Japan in the late 1980s. If you are too young to remember, the Japanese Nikkei index soared to the 38,900 area at the end of 1989. In case you have not been paying attention the Nikkei closed around 7650 today. So twenty years later it is still down close to 31,000 plus points or a whopping 80 percent--give or take.
我的确被这个标题震惊了。看起来现在中国企业在用银行贷款来做股票投资。事实上，这些企业投入股票市场的贷款资金已经达到创纪录的数额了。这就足以解释为什么上证综合指数是今年世界表现业绩最好的股票指数了。这一现象也让我联想起上世纪80年代末发生在日本的股市狂潮来，许读者您那时还年少未到记事时吧。在1989年底，日经指数曾一路狂飙疯涨到38900点关口。当然你也可能并没有注意过今天日经指数仅以7650点左右报收。在20年后日经指数也不过接近31000多点---下挫了近20%。
You might be thinking what does this have to do with the price of cotton in west Texas. Well, while we are sitting around worrying about the Chinese divesting or buying less Treasury securities we might also think about Japan. At the end of 2008, Japan held $578 billion of treasury securities. China? $696 billion. One big difference though--China's holdings increased by about $219 billion in 2008, while Japanese holdings dropped by about $1.5 billion.
当然，您会想了，这和产自德克萨斯州西部的棉花的价格有什么关系。嗯，当我们坐在一起为中国人不能购买国债或只能少买点发愁时，我们也应该联系日本那边的情况一同思考。在08年年底，日本的国债额度达到了5780亿美元。那中国呢？国债额度为6960亿美元。但这两个数据表现有个很大的不同--中国08年底的这个数据从原本2190亿美元的基础上涨而来的，而日本国债额则是下降了近15亿。
Have you been thinking about where all the money is going to come from to finance our ever increasing Treasury debt? Given any thought to what would happen if we had to pay sharply higher interest rates? I suggest you give this some thought and get back to me.
您是不是一直都在思考这样一个问题：所有那些用来处理仍在上涨中的国债的资金将从何而来？当我们不得不支付持续上涨的贷款利息时，您有没有想过这会有什么后果？我还是建议您好好想想，在回来和我一起讨论这些问题。
Leveraging up in China via bank loans, Japan's economy falling off the face of the earth. None of this is bullish for U.S. stocks.
中国通过银行贷款来调节经济，日本的经济已经跌落谷底。 二者都没有给美国股市以强劲的支持。
You might want to read the Bloomberg article and give it some thought.
您应该去看看Blommberg经济资讯上的文章，然后再好好考虑一下上面那个问题。
China Record Loans Diverted to Stocks, Shenyin Says
申银万国证券公司的相关人士表示，中国政府发放的创纪录的贷款都被投入股市之中了。
Chinese companies may be using record bank lending to invest in stocks, fueling a rally that’s made the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index the world’s best performer this year, according to Shenyin & Wanguo Securities Co.
据申银万国证券有关人士表示，中国企业可能已经将创纪录的银行贷款用于股票投资了，上证综指在注入这些巨额资金后成为了今年世界表现最为抢眼的股票市场。
As much as 660 billion yuan ($97 billion) may have been converted by companies into term deposits or used to buy equities, Li Huiyong, Shanghai-based analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, said in a phone interview today, citing money supply figures.
申银万国上海分公司的证券分析师Li huiyong在今天的一个电话采访中表示，根据货币供应数额来看，中国企业已经将高达6600亿元（97亿美元）的资金用于购买定期存款或股票。
China’s banks lent a record 1.62 trillion yuan in January as part of a government drive to stimulate the world’s third- largest economy, while M2, the broadest measure of money supply, climbed 18.8 percent from a year earlier. The Shanghai Composite has surged 29 percent since the start of 2009, compared with a 10 percent decline in the MSCI World Index.
作为中国政府刺激世界第三大经济体的计划的一部分，中国银行在今年一月发放了创纪录的16200亿的贷款，与此同时，M2（广义货币供应量）从早先的数额上涨到了18.8%。相比较下跌了10%的摩根士丹利资本国际公司世界指数（ MSCI World Index）而言，上证综指自2009年初开始已经上涨了29%。
“Part of the liquidity flowing into the stock market could be from companies using borrowed funds to invest in the stock market instead of working requirements,” said Li.
“部分进入股票市场的流动资金来自企业贷款，他们用这些资金来投资股票而不是去购买生产设备”，Li Huiyong说。
He arrived at the 660 billion yuan figure by subtracting M1, which includes cash and demand deposits, from M2. The brokerage was voted the best in the country for research by the national pension fund, China’s largest investor.
他指着6600亿元这一数字，这是已经除去了M2中代表现金和活期存款的M1后的数额。申银万国证券公司被中国最大的投资企业国家养老基金评为年度国内最佳经济运营企业。
New loans jumped to twice the record set a year earlier. The biggest proportion of new lending, 39 percent, was through discounted bills, which supply working capital. Medium and long- term corporate loans accounted for 32 percent.
新的贷款额度在一年前达到了前一记录的两倍之多。新的贷款中占最大比例（39%）通过票据贴现的方式供应给了企业流动资本。中长期企业贷款占总额度的32%。
Chasing Returns
企业追逐投资利益
Companies are reluctant to increase production amid a slowdown in demand and some may have diverted funds meant for expansion into the stock market to chase higher returns, said Li.
“由于市场需求量下降，企业现在不愿增加生产。有的企业已经将资金开始转移，意在加大在股票市场中的投资，以期获得更高的利益”，李慧勇说。
China’s central bank is asking lenders to identify the recipients of last month’s loans to ensure the funding contributes to economic growth, a person with knowledge of the matter said Feb. 13, speaking on condition of anonymity.
一位不愿透露姓名的知情人士在2月13日说，中国央行要求各贷款发放银行必须确认贷款者上个月的贷款去向，保证其所借贷款用于促进经济增长。
Loan growth may continue to surge this month, the Shanghai Securities News reported today, without citing a source.
上海证券报今天报道了一则消息，这个月的贷款增长额度还会继续上涨，但并未透露消息来源。
The government is putting pressure on banks to support its 4 trillion yuan stimulus package, while seeking to avoid a pile- up of bad loans. Default risk represents the biggest threat to Chinese lenders this year, Fitch Ratings has said.
中国政府已经开始敦促国内银行一方面要支持其高达4万亿元的经济刺激计划，另一方面还要注意杜绝坏账死账的出现。惠誉国际评级公司表示，今年违约风险是摆在中国发放贷款的银行面前最大的挑战。
“It’s hard for banks to tell whether the funds are flowing into the real economy or into the stock market,” said Michelle Qi, a Shanghai-based portfolio manager at Bank of Communications Schroder Fund Management, which oversees about $790 million.
“银行很难分辨那些借贷出去的资金到底是用于实际经济活动还是流入了股票市场”，在交通银行施罗德资金管理公司任职，并监管了近7亿9千万资产的财务资产经理Micelle Qi表示。
“In the short term, there’s a risk that this inflow of funds could push the market too high,” she said.
“这些流入股票市场的资金在短期内有冲高市场指数的危险”，她说。
Stock Valuations
关于股票价格
The rally has driven stock valuations 41 percent higher since November, when the Shanghai Composite Index traded at 13.3 times earnings, the lowest since at least November 1997, according to Bloomberg data. The gauge was valued at 48.7 times earnings at its peak in October 2007.
这笔巨额贷款的注入使得股价从11月的数值一路上涨近41%，当时上证综指个股股价为每股营业额的13.3倍，据Bloomberg资讯的数据可知这是自1997年11月以来的最低值。
Equity transactions rose last week to the highest in at least three years. The Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges handled a combined 32 billion shares Feb. 13, the most since Bloomberg started compiling the data in January 2006. An average of 17.3 billion shares have changed hands daily this year, compared with 9.8 billion shares in 2008.
股票交易量上周上涨到了一个新高，至少未来三年内不会再有超此记录的交易量。上综指和深成指在2月13日合计成交320亿股，这是Bloomberg经济时报自2006年一月开始记录中国股市成交量以来最大的一笔日成交额。和2008年98亿日交易量相比，今年平均每天成交173亿笔股票交易。
China’s banking regulator is reviewing commercial lenders’ financing of discounted bills after January’s surge prompted concern about excessive risks, the China Business News reported yesterday, citing unidentified people.
由于担心一月份股市疯狂上涨会造成额外风险，中国银行监管机构正在审核商业借贷者的票据贴现情况，一位匿名作者在昨天的《中国商务日报》这样写道。
Fortune SGAM Fund Management Co.’s Gabriel Gondard said while there may be examples of companies diverting working funds into the stock market, they are likely to be in the minority.
华宝兴业基金管理有限公司的Gabriel Gondard说，尽管现在有公司将企业流动资金投入股票市场的案例，但那也只是极少数极个别的。
Working Capital
关于流动资本
“Corporates are in need of working capital right now,” said Gondard, who helps oversee about $7.2 billion. “There may be exceptions, but it’s not big enough an impact to explain the rally.”
“企业现在急需流动资本”，监管近72亿资金的Gondard说道，“的确有例外存在，但这尚不足以解释这些巨额贷款资金的去向问题。”
China’s domestic stock market capitalization has increased by $743.1 billion since November, when the government announced its 4 trillion yuan stimulus
plan.
在中国政府宣布了其4万亿元的经济刺激计划后，自11月以来中国国内股票市场资本已增加到了7431亿。
The rally has drawn more Chinese investors. About 224,000 accounts were opened to trade equities on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges last week, the fastest pace in almost two months. That’s still about a quarter of the record 1.07 million set up in the week to Sept. 7, 2007.
这一巨额贷款额度已经吸引了越来越多的中国投资者。上周在上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所，投资者已经开了近22万4千个户头用以投资股票，这是近两个月来最快的开户速率。这一数字还仅仅是2007年9月7日创下的101万周开户记录的四分之一左右。
The gains in the country’s yuan-denominated shares, restricted to its citizens and approved overseas institutions, contrasts with a decline in shares of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, where there are no restrictions on overseas investors. The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index of Chinese companies has lost 7.7 percent this year.
中国国内A股市场盈利额（仅限中国公民及获准的海外机构投资）与在香港上市的中国企业的盈利形成鲜明对比。（在香港股市对海外投资者并不设限） 今年香港恒生中国企业指数下跌了7.7%。
‘Superficial Exuberance’
‘表面化的经济繁荣 ’
China’s government bonds may rally with the end of the “superficial exuberance” that drove the surge in bank lending over the last two months, Qu Qing, Shenyin Wanguo’s head of bond research said in an interview today.
“在过去的两个月内，‘表面化经济繁荣’促使银行出现贷款狂潮。随着‘表面化经济繁荣’步入尾声，中国政府国债就会大量出现。”，申银万国公司首席债权研究员Qu Qing在今天 的一次采访中如是表示。
Some 64 percent of the new loans were made on a short-term basis, rather than for medium- and long-term investment projects, and these are likely to limit a recovery in the economy, Qu said.
“有差不多64%的新批复贷款是短期贷款项目，而不是中期或长期的，这样很可能限制经济的复苏”，Qu Qing说。
Most of the discounted-bill financing was “behavior by companies” to help meet their funding needs, People’s Bank of China Vice Governor Yi Gang said Feb. 14 during a conference in Beijing. “We should respect the market,” he said.
“大部分贴现票据经济计划是‘面向企业计划’，旨在满足这些企业的资金需求”，中国人民银行副行长Yi Gang2月14日在北京的一个会议上表示。 “我们应该要尊重市场规律”，他说道。 股市的投机性太高，跟前年大额资金买权证一样。
美国股市成熟是不假，但它们市场的负面消息更不假，所以节节下挫。 有道理。
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