经济学人：AIG成危机悲情新主角 国有化噩梦难回天
American International GroupIn a state【《经济学人》专栏：AIG成危机悲情新主角 国有化噩梦难回天】
【丁满团队编译，AC首发】
AT EACH lurch downwards in the financial crisis, American International Group (AIG) has played an infamous starring role. Yet again, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below 6,800 on Monday March 2nd, its lowest level in almost 12 years the company deemed to be too big to fail has proven almost too big to rescue.
Once the world’s largest insurer, now AIG is in the record books for all the wrong reasons. On Monday it revealed the biggest quarterly loss of any company in American history, at $61.7 billion, down from a loss of $5.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007. Much of the red ink stemmed from misplaced bets in the credit-derivatives markets; what it called “market-disruption related” lost the insurer $25.9 billion, which is more than the combined losses in the fourth quarter of both Merrill Lynch and Citigroup, two of America’s biggest banking casualties.
AIG’s losses, though shockingly large, could have been worse. Its problems mainly stem from the insurance coverage it provided to banks on devilishly complex structured products. According to CreditSights, a research firm, the loss of value in these so-called super senior credit-default swaps (CDSs), as well as the company’s operating businesses, was no worse than expected.
But the results had threatened to trigger a downgrade by the credit-rating agencies, which would have required AIG to post billions of dollars more of collateral to back its CDS exposures. This provoked another of those feverish weekends at the Treasury and the Federal Reserve that were so prominent in the closing months of the Bush administration, as the authorities scrambled to find a new way out for AIG.
The upshot was the firm’s fourth bail-out. The Fed first threw it an $85 billion lifeline in September and took a 79.9% stake in the company in return. The announcement, issued on the same day as the fourth-quarter earnings, marks quite a substantial softening of the terms of that rescue package, as well as providing up to $30 billion in new capital. It removes the coupon on $40 billion of government equity injected into AIG in November and lowers the interest rate on the Fed’s credit line. While the new plan pacifies the credit-rating agencies for the moment, and provides some solace to AIG’s creditors and counterparties, it provides little reason for taxpayers to hope that much of the cost of this colossal bail-out—by far the biggest so far in the crisis—will be recouped.
In exchange for cancelling a $34.5 billion debt to the New York Fed, the government will receive preferred stakes in two AIG subsidiaries, American International Assurance and American Life Insurance, as well as interests in life-insurance businesses in AIG’s home country. The two units have performed well, but efforts to sell American International Assurance have recently drawn a blank, partly because of the severity of the global crisis and the lack of funding for buyers. The government clearly believes that rather than offloading them in a fire sale, it is better to hold them and sell them at a better price when the market improves.
That is assuming they are well managed in the interim, however; so far government ownership appears to have done little to improve the rest of the business. Hopes that official backing would enable AIG somehow to fence off the troubled financial-services division where the CDSs are housed, allowing the other businesses to run more smoothly, have come to nothing. Edward Liddy, the AIG boss parachuted in by the government, said he was surprised by how bad things had turned out at the firm and in the economy in general. He offered no forecasts for the first quarter.
AIG’s tide of red ink makes the record so far of government support for stricken financial institutions, albeit one that bridges two administrations, even more depressing. Messy rescues of Citigroup and Bank of America have failed to staunch their losses. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two giant mortgage agencies that are also wards of the state, have continued to bleed. Fannie last week reported a $25.2 billion fourth-quarter loss. Freddie expects to seek up to another $35 billion in public funds when it announces results shortly that are expected to be disastrous. On Monday David Moffett, its chief executive, resigned six months after the government had given him the job. It was yet another reminder that problems for big financial firms continue to get worse even when they are wrapped in the forgiving arms of the state.
英国《经济学人》杂志3月2日专栏文章指出：尽管对美国对AIG公司进行了援又一轮救助，美国国有保险公司的问题依然受市场影响巨大越演越重。
AIG：又一个悲剧主角
在经济状况每况愈下的金融危机中，美国国际集团 (AIG) 扮演了一个失败的主角 。当本周一(3月2日)，道琼斯工业平均数低收于近乎12年来最低水平6800点时，美国国际集团——这家曾被归入不败败者之列的公司已经变得无药可救。
这个曾经世界最大的保险公司美国国际集团，因为犯下了所有能犯的错误已被载入史册。周一，该公司公布了自2007年第四季度53亿美元亏损以来，又一次高达617亿美元的季度亏损，创美国公司季度亏损历史记录。产生赤字最主要的原因是错误涉足信用衍生产品市场，该举动使得保险公司损失了259亿美元，这还导致了美林和花旗在第四季度的亏损，造成了美国史上银行最大的两次惨重损失。
美国国际集团的损失虽然数目惊人，但情况本来可能会更糟。问题主要出在它给银行提供的保险产品的保险责任范围的结构过于复杂。根据一家叫Creditsights的调查公司的调查显示，所谓的超高信誉信用违约交换合约(CDSs)所造成的损失比预想的还要高。
美联储和小布什：无力回天
但是这并没有遭到信贷评级机构的降级处罚。信贷评级机构本应要求美国国际集团给此投入更多的抵押资金。这使得在权威人士们费劲脑汁为美国国际集团寻找新的出路时，出现了如同布什政府最后的几个月里，又一周财政部和美联储的救市狂潮。
结果,自9月联邦政府以换取79.9%股权为条件拨给美国国际集团850亿美元以来，第四次对其进行资金援助。在AIG公司公布第四季度收入时，政府发表了声明，表示对一揽子救援计划条款的软化，同时又提供了300亿美元的救援资金。政府撤出了11月份对AIG公司400亿美元的政府参股，降低了美联储的信用额度的利率。新的计划暂时平息了客户信贷分类机构，给AIG公司的债权人和对家一些安慰，但是纳税人并不觉得经济危机以来最大这笔救世资金能够被收回。
美国政府取消了纽约联邦储备银行345亿美元的贷款，用来换取两家位于亚洲的AIG分公司（友邦保险和美国人寿保险）的优先股份，和美国国内AIG公司美国人寿保险的利润。两家亚洲公司运营良好，但是最近要出售亚洲友邦保险的举动一直没有得到回应，可能是因为全球严重的经济危机使得投资者手中缺少资金。政府认为与其大甩卖不如等到经济市场好转后买个好价钱。
AIG的国有化噩梦
迄今为止，国有化并没有让其它业务得到改善。政府希望通过救世资金可以帮助AIG公司回避由于信用违约交换合约所造成的困境，可以让该公司的其它业务顺利进展，然而这样的希望最终落空。AIG老板Edward Liddy表示，他对公司的处境和总体的经济状况表示非常惊讶。他没有对今年新一季度作出预测。
AIG公司的赤字创造了至今美国政府挽救受金融危机打击企业的记录，即使受到两届政府的资助，但情况却更糟糕。毫无章法的救世举动没有止住花旗集团和美国银行的损失。联邦国民抵押协会和联邦住宅贷款抵押公司这两家大型抵押机构同样收到国家的保护，但依然不能止血。联邦国民抵押协会上周公布了第四季度252亿美元的亏损。联邦住宅贷款抵押公司在宣布损失惨重之后表示希望募集350亿美元的公共基金。周一，上任6个月的David Moffett辞去了公司董事长的职务。这让人们又一次认识到，即使有政府的保护资助大型金融公司的问题仍在恶化。(丁满编译)
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=13213322 如果AIG倒掉了,会有什么样的结果,热切期待中 楼主辛苦了，谢谢！
不知这件事会对经济产生什么样的影响…… 前两天友邦保险的人还打电话问我买不买保修Q25)
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