纽约时报：一个没有十足把握的中国踏上世界舞台！
让其他地方为本周的伦敦经济峰会能否拯救世界于经济崩溃而紧张吧。中国前来参加会议，民主主义浪潮以及在低潮中冲浪的经济为它增添动力。尽管其他主要经济体今年会出现萎缩，一些经济学家预计中国将超过日本成为世界第二大经济体。
民族主义新书《中国不高兴》成为热点话题。通常低调的中国副主席习近平因在墨西哥抨击“有些吃饱了没事干的外国人，对我们的事情指手画脚”而受到追捧。中国及其两万亿美元的外汇储备被全世界视为一系列问题的解决办法。
然而，当中国国家主席胡锦涛和美国总统奥巴马于周三（4月1日）进行首次会晤时，中国人似乎在挣扎，既想吸引地缘政治聚光灯，又有些害羞。
http://i40.tinypic.com/ndsvwp.jpgPresident Obama, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Timothy F. Geithner in London with President Hu Jintao, shaking Mrs. Clinton’s hand, and other Chinese officials.
政府上月迅速淡化处理习近平的言论。在周三，《中国日报》的头版警告说中国“中国经济不像一些人想的那么强大”，并援引中国发展研究基金会经济学家汤敏（Tang Min）的话，称搭救中国就是对搭救世界做出的最大贡献。
中国就是处于这样的窘境——在很多专家眼中，它的崛起是不可避免的，但现在谈崛起仍然有点为时过早。
专家们认为，中国是全球主要经济体，其言行可以影响国际金融、国际经济及其他经济体。不过那些困扰中国的因素也同样真实：普遍贫困、专制统治等。如果无法解决这些问题，中国就不大可能实现其全球雄心。
另外，中国的经济运气与美国的纠缠不清。美国是它最大的客户，也是它的对手、债务人，而且美国迄今仍然是世界最大的经济体。因此，尽管北京搅动全球金融架构的变革，并为华盛顿的损失幸灾乐祸，但它的利益与美国经济复兴有很大关系。
这并不能否定中国新近增强的地位。由于世界多数地方陷入金融崩溃，中国的经济突然显得很大，很健康，令世界其他地方无法忽视。
中国崛起的证据无处不在。三年前，中国还没有一家银行的市值跻身世界前二十名。如今，前三名都是中国的。中国的国有企业在全世界收购企业、技术和资源。中国持有一万亿美元的美国政府债券，其他西方国家也欠中国的钱。
中国显然怀着全球雄心。多年来，中国军费呈双位数增长。中国慢慢建立远洋海军，而且在去年12月，它派出三艘船前往索马里附近海域对付海盗。
外国分析家一致表示，从尖锐批评美国财政政策到就南海控制权展开口舌之战，中国在外交和军事事务上新生的自信令他们吃惊。
曾在1998年至2000年负责白宫亚洲政策的布鲁金斯学会学者李侃如（Kenneth G. Lieberthal）表示，传统上，中国在重大经济和战略问题上会先看华盛顿的表态，然后才表示赞同或不赞同。
但是，“在过去两月，我相当惊讶地发现，中国像一个大国（major power）那样谈论事情。他们开始感到，中国可能是第一个或者紧跟美国之后摆脱目前的经济危机，而且到危机结束时，中国将是极少数不需要政府债务高筑就摆脱危机的国家之一。”
李侃如表示，这里正发生明显的改变，更加自信中国如今已经变成一个重要的地方，需要（像一个重要国家）那样做事。
不过，经济重要性不会自动转变为地缘政治分量。就中国的情况来看，真正全球大国的构成因素（例如道德影响等、军事影响力、文化影响力等）多数处于装配阶段，或者根本没有。
即使是中国不容置疑的经济影响力也需要加注。尽管中国大城市蓬勃发展，而且该国沿海已经变成世界工厂，但13亿人口中有8亿仍然是农民，很多人陷于贫困中。中国仍然是一个发展中国家，仍然要争夺第一世界地位。
在乔治华盛顿大学负责中国政策项目的沈大伟（David Shambaugh）表示，“对于称中国为超级大国，我会持谨慎态度。它不是。它没有全球军事影响力，它的软实力有限，它的外交影响尽管已是全球性的，但在中东和拉美等地区仍然有限。”（作者 MICHAEL WINES，EDWARD WONG）
译文为摘译，英文原文
英文原文
本帖最后由 rlsrls08 于 2009-4-4 01:24 编辑An Unsure China Steps Onto the Global Stage
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2009/04/02/world/02china_600.JPG
President Obama, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Timothy F. Geithner in London with President Hu Jintao, shaking Mrs. Clinton’s hand, and other Chinese officials.
By MICHAEL WINES and EDWARD WONG
Published: April 1, 2009
BEIJING — Let the rest of the world dither over whether this week’s economic summit meeting in London will save the planet from economic collapse.
China arrives at the meeting with a sense of momentum, riding a wave of nationalism and boasting an economy that, more than any other, is surfing the trough of a crippling recession. While other major economies shrink this year, China’s is expected by some economists to pass Japan’s as the world’s second largest, if it has not already.
The most talked-about new book here, “China is Unhappy,” combines hypernationalism with biting criticism of Western mismanagement and of China’s reluctance to grasp its place in history.
China’s normally faceless vice president, Xi Jinping, achieved cult status in late February after cameras caught him in an unguarded moment in Mexico, attacking “foreigners who had eaten their fill and had nothing better to do, pointing their fingers at our affairs.”
It has not dampened this spirit that China — and its $2 trillion in exchange reserves — are viewed around the world as the solution to a host of problems, whether by shoring up the capital base of theInternational Monetary Fund or by becoming a bigger engine of growth for Asian economies long dependent on the United States market.
Yet even as Presidents Hu Jintao and Obama had their first meeting on Wednesday on the sidelines of the summit proceedings, the Chinese appeared torn between seizing their moment in the geopolitical spotlight and shying from it.
Government censors quickly deleted Mr. Xi’s remarks from Chinese news reports last month. On Wednesday, the front page of China Daily, the English-language newspaper that telegraphs government positions to the outside world, warned that China “is not as strong an economy as some people think.”
“Bailing out China is our most important contribution to bail out the world,” Tang Min, an economist at the state-financed China Development Research Foundation, was quoted as saying.
Such is the quandary of a nation whose rise to power appears both inevitable and, in the view of many experts, still a bit premature.
“China is a major global economy now. That is a fundamental reality,” Chu Shulong, who directs the Institute of Strategic Studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said in an interview. “What China says and does has an effect on international finance, international economics and other economies.”
But just as real, Mr. Chu and others said, are the factors that hamstring China: widespread poverty, authoritarian rule, a culture shrouded by decades of isolation and poorly understood intentions. China’s global ambitions are unlikely to be realized until it resolves those issues.
Even then, China’s economic fortunes remain deeply entangled with those of the United States, its biggest customer, rival, debtor and still — by far — the world’s biggest economy.
So although Beijing may agitate for changes in the global financial structure, and relish some schadenfreude at Washington’s expense, its interests lie very much in getting America back on its economic feet.
That does not negate China’s newly enhanced status. With most of the world in financial collapse, China’s economy has suddenly become too big — and too healthy, expected to grow by at least 6.5 percent this year — for the rest of the world to ignore.
Evidence of China’s ascension is everywhere. Three years ago, China did not have a single bank among the world’s top 20, measured by market capitalization. Today the top three are Chinese. (In 2006, the United States had 7 of the top 20 banks, including the top 2; today it has 3, and the biggest, Morgan Stanley, is rated fifth.)
China’s government-owned enterprises are buying companies, technology and resources worldwide. This year they have spent $13 billion in Europe, and plan new investments in the United States. China has struck long-term oil contracts with Brazil and Russia, and is angling for a more than $20 billion stake in three Australian mining companies.
China holds $1 trillion in United States government debt, and that is but half the foreign reserves generated by its huge trade surplus and investment inflows. The rest of the West owes China money, too.
Just as clearly, China harbors global ambitions. Military spending has grown for years at a double-digit clip, though as a share of gross domestic product, it is half of the United States’ military spending. China is slowly building a blue-water navy, and in December it sent three ships to the waters off Somalia to patrol against pirates, in the first modern active deployment of its warships beyond its home waters.
Foreign analysts uniformly say they are struck by China’s new assertiveness in diplomatic and military affairs, from tart critiques of American fiscal policy to verbal sparring over control of the South China Sea.
Kenneth G. Lieberthal, a Brookings Institution scholar who oversaw White House Asia policy from 1998 to 2000, said the Chinese traditionally deferred to Washington on major economic and strategic issues, assenting or differing only after Washington made its case.
But “in meetings with the Chinese on several issues in the last two months, I’ve been quite surprised that Chinese are sitting there talking the way you would expect a major power to talk,” he said. “They are beginning to appreciate that when countries emerge from this current economic crisis, China is likely to be either the first to emerge or right after the U.S., and that China will be one of the very few countries at the end of this crisis to emerge without having high levels of government debt.”
“There is a palpable change taking place here,” Mr. Lieberthal added, “with a sense of greater confidence that China has now become an important place and needs to act that way.”
But economic importance does not automatically translate into geopolitical heft. In China’s case, most of the other components of true global power — moral sway, military clout, cultural influence, to name a few — are in the assembly stage, or missing altogether.
Even China’s unquestioned economic clout comes with an asterisk. While Chinese megacities boom and the country’s coast has become the world’s factory, 800 million of the nation’s 1.3 billion citizens remain farmers, many mired in poverty. China remains a developing nation, still vying for first-world status.
“I would be careful calling China a superpower. It is not one,” David Shambaugh, who directs the China Policy Program at George Washington University in Washington, wrote in an e-mail message. “It has no global military reach, its soft power is limited, and its diplomatic reach, while now global, is still limited in areas such as the Middle East and Latin America.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/02/world/asia/02china.html?_r=1&ref=world
07年吧，susan shirk（谢淑丽）出过一本书，书名是china: a fragile super power，讲的就是中国虽然在国际上给人大国崛起的印象，但其实内患无数，这才是让中国领导人最头痛的，即使有些外交政策，看似对外，其实也是做给国内群众看的。这篇文章的基调和她比较接近。
shirk70年代就来过中国，见过周恩来，在克林顿政府做过助理国务卿还是国务卿助理，负责中国事务，卸任之后在大学教书，既有学者的严谨，也有政客的洞见，对中国的分析在老外里面算是到位的，起码不是纸上谈兵。这本书在美国学术界和政界相当有影响力。她也是新驻华大使的两大热门候选人之一。
前几个星期南方人物周刊好像采访过她。 本帖最后由 老清华 于 2009-4-4 04:26 编辑
甘阳在新三通的讲话里也提了谢淑丽的书。
http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=143096
纽约州接替Hillary的新参议院Gillibrand是美国政坛中不多见的半个中国通，在海峡两岸都当过交换学生。有个中文名字叫陆天娜。现在是参议院外交委员会的成员。 中國發展的路仍然很漫長，面臨的問題更是愈來愈多。 甘阳在新三通的讲话里也提了谢淑丽的书。
http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=143096
纽约州接替Hillary的新参议院Gillibrand是美国政坛中不多见的半个中国通，在海峡两岸都当过交换学生。有个中 ...
老清华 发表于 2009-4-4 04:18 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
谢谢你找出这个帖子，学到很多东西，很有启发。
不过甘阳引的是她90年代出的旧书，我说的是她07年的新书。那本旧书也很有意思。
西方学界的中国专家，哪怕有些人训练很好，但是常常容易一叶障目，有的人谈外交政府也许很到位，但是谈到共产党，可能就会陷入意识形态的框架；有的是法律专家，但是对法律与中国政治和社会的关系缺乏了解，限制了他们很好地了解中国的法制状况。对于有机会参与决策的人来说，是否是专家有时候并不重要，关键是他们是否有开放的心态去消化不同于他们常识的事实，能否尊重他们的对手。
我觉得判断西方的中国问题专家，只要看他们怎么看89，以及当时的所作所为就知道他们的水平了。 不过那些困扰中国的因素也同样真实：普遍贫困、专制统治等。如果无法解决这些问题，中国就不大可能实现其全球雄心。
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貌似这位“忘记”了，中国已经因为解决贫困的高速度得到过联合国的高度赞扬；貌似这位更“忘记”了，如果不是因为中国的这种独特的模式，中国会如此很大，很健康，令世界其他地方无法忽视吗？
G20都开成了G2，如果这世界如今如此倚重一个没有十足把握的中国，那其他国家又成什么了呢？那就不仅仅是没有十足的把握了吧
还不想充分正视中国，可再唱衰中国又太蹩脚，于是只能以这种不乏醋意的词语来找平衡了 两岸猿声啼不住,轻舟已过万重山 某次不是有人说这次G-20，洗煤对中国的报道不多嘛？
我看事实恰好相反吧~~ 奧巴馬貌似沒啥禮數，胡總都開始和美方官員握手，牠還坐在椅上!!還真把自己當主子!! 不管是自己走上去,还是懵懵懂懂间上了台,只要一路走下去,不也是一件美事麽 恩我们还不是超级大国
请别盯着我们钱袋里的钱哦 中国什么时候都没说过自己是超级大国，这些都是西方的媒体说的。 发现看英文和看中文得出的感觉完全不同。翻译真是一门艺术啊！ 中国 还是发展国家没错 只是现在西方需要中国 我们确实面临很多困难。但是我们有信心我们会越来越强大。。越来越自信。。这是我们的目标也是我们的使命 我情愿中国默默无闻的成长，不希望在半途中就被聚光灯打着拉上台。 只要是中国的
被就被打上民族主义的标签 现在这种世道，谁敢说自己有十足把握！？
美帝也不敢吧~~~~
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