【09.04.12 纽约时报】中国放缓购买美国及其他债券的力度
本帖最后由 aha 于 2009-4-13 05:32 编辑【原文标题】China Slows Purchases of U.S. and Other Bonds
【来源地址】http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/13/business/global/13yuan.html?hp
【译者】aha
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译文】中国放缓购买美国及其他债券的力度
香港-中国正在扭转其作为世界上增长最快的美国国债及其他国国债的买主地位。这周末由中国央行发布的数据显示，中国政府三月份重新买入之前，在一二月份曾大量的出售各种债券。
中国首季度外汇增长创八年来新低。第一季外汇储备上升77亿美元，相比去年同期的增幅为创纪录的1539亿美元。
北京购买债券力度的放缓，使得美国国库降低对中国央行购买其政府债券拍卖的依赖，从而最主要的结果可能是北京对华盛顿的影响力将减弱。两个月来，温家宝以降的中国官员们，对于该国的巨大利益要仰赖美国的财政健康纷纷表达了不安。
根据本周末中国人民银行首次发布的数据显示，中国外汇储备分别在一月和二月份减少326亿美元和14亿美元，三月份则是增加了417亿美元。外汇储备恢复增长或许表明该国的信心正在恢复之中，而资本外流速度或会减缓。
中国借给美国数额庞大——据信大约三分之二的中国外汇储备为美元资产。不过目前中国政府正在缩小其美元抵押品及美国政府债务的比重。
余永定，中国政府最顶尖的货币经济学家之一，在被问及中美之间的财力平衡时表示，“我认为这主要有利于美国。”
他引用了一句约翰梅纳德凯恩斯的名言： “如果你欠你的银行经理1000英镑，那是你的问题。如果你欠他100万英镑，那就是他的问题了。”
世界各国（包括美国）的私人投资者，一直在购入更多的美国债券以寻求在全球金融危机中躲避风浪。这使得中国政府手中的现金显得不那么重要，即便中国袖手，美国仍能够在这个经济寒冬保持低利率。
同时，已有迹象表明，美国人在这个艰难时期可能会增加储蓄减少消费。这将更加降低美国人对中国储蓄的依赖。
温先生于3月13日表达了中国对美依赖的关切：“我们借给美国很多钱，我们当然关心这些资产的安全，老实说，我确实有点担心。”
周四周五，在北京的采访中，中国的经济学家认为中国官员们主要担心的是，美国对抗经济下滑的努力可能会造成通货膨胀，从而导致美元债券贬值。
“他们非常担心固定收入资产的购买力，”清华大学经济学教授于桥说。
美国诉诸货币和财政政策以刺激经济，对此，是否中国政府有意在购买海外债券上拧紧阀门来惩罚美国，经济学家认为并无迹象。美国的政策或许会引发远期的通货膨胀，不过若美经济能够重振，或许也会同时使中国受益，帮助中国惨淡的出口得以复兴。
中国外汇储备增幅的急剧下降似乎显示投资者正将大量的资金撤离中国，因为担心中国的经济前景，以及可能的由高失业率引发的社会不稳定。
证据显示此类资本以及大量现金涌入港币市场。大陆游客甚至于一月底中国新年时在本地购买黄金和钻石。
近年来，金钱随着贸易顺差和大量的海外投资涌入中国，中国外汇储备大增，中国人民银行购买大量美元以防止人民币升值。但是随着出口下滑，贸易顺差额已经缩水，同时跨国企业为了保存资金也减少了投资。
香港德意志银行的经济学家马军预测，今年中国的外汇储备只会增加1000亿美元，去年这一数据为4178亿美元。
一些经济学家认为，中国外汇储备增长的放缓，对美国经济健康重要性并不高，虽然可能政治上比较重要。虽然一季度中国政府不再拿钱出来购买海外债券，而另一边，许多中国的个人和公司纷纷拿出钱来购买相同的债权，
“反正大部分钱总归会流向美国”即使中国政府不再掌控金钱的流向。北京大学一位财经教授Michael Pettis在周四的采访中说。
中国居民今年早些时候大量购买港币的行为也间接帮助了美国筹措资金。由于港币与美元挂钩，而港币需求强劲，香港政府在这个冬天进一步增加了美国国债的持有。
不过中国经济看上去要比他的贸易伙伴们更快的从经济下滑中恢复过来。这可能会提升中国的进口，于此同时，出口的复苏会相对缓慢。这样造成有限的贸易顺差，人民银行只有很小的空间去耕耘她的外汇储备了。
China Slows Purchases of U.S. and Other Bonds
HONG KONG — Reversing its role as the world’s fastest-growing buyer of U.S. Treasuries and other foreign bonds, the Chinese government actually sold bonds heavily in January and February before resuming purchases in March, according to data released this weekend by China’s central bank.
China’s foreign reserves grew in the first quarter of this year at the slowest pace in nearly eight years. For the quarter, the reserves edged up $7.7 billion, compared to a record increase of $153.9 billion in the same quarter last year.
The main effect of slower bond purchases may be to weaken Beijing’s influence in Washington, by lessening the reliance of the U.S. Treasury on Chinese central bank purchases at its government bond auctions. Chinese officials from Premier Wen Jiabao on down have expressed growing nervousness over the past two months about their country’s huge exposure to America’s financial well-being.
Chinese reserves fell a record $32.6 billion in January and another $1.4 billion in February before rising $41.7 billion in March, according to figures that were released by the People’s Bank for the first time over the weekend. Resumed growth in China’s reserves during March suggests that confidence in the country may be reviving, and capital flight could be slowing.
China has essentially lent vast sums to the United States — roughly two-thirds of the central bank’s $1.95 trillion in foreign reserves are believed to be in American securities. But the Chinese government now finances a dwindling percentage of new American mortgages and government borrowing.
Asked about the balance of financial power between China and the United States, one of the Chinese government’s top monetary economists, Yu Yongding, replied that, “I think it’s mainly in favor of the United States.”
He cited a famous saying attributed to John Maynard Keynes: “If you owe your bank manager a thousand pounds, you are at his mercy. If you owe him a million pounds, he is at your mercy.”
Private investors from around the world, including the United States, have been buying more American bonds in search of a refuge from global financial troubles. This has made the Chinese government’s cash less necessary and kept interest rates low in the United States over the winter despite the Chinese pullback.
There have also been some signs that Americans may consume less and save more money in response to hard economic times. This would further lessen the American dependence on Chinese savings.
Mr. Wen voiced concern on March 13 about China’s dependence on the United States: “We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried.”
The main worry of Chinese officials has been that American efforts to fight the current economic downturn would result in inflation that would erode the value of American bonds, Chinese economists said in interviews in Beijing on Thursday and Friday.
“They are quite nervous about the purchasing power of fixed-income assets,” said Yu Qiao, an economics professor at Tsinghua University.
Economists said that there was no sign that the Chinese government has deliberately throttled back its purchases of overseas bonds to punish the United States for pursuing monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stimulating the American economy. Those policies may run a long-term risk of triggering inflation, but the same policies could also benefit China if they rekindle economic growth in the United States and thereby revive China’s faltering exports.
The abrupt slowdown in China’s accumulation of foreign reserves instead seems to suggest that investors were sending very large sums of money out of mainland China early this year in response to worries about the country’s economic future and possibly its social stability in the face of rising unemployment.
Evidence of such capital flight included a flood of cash into the Hong Kong dollar. Mainland tourists were even buying gold and diamonds during Chinese New Year holidays here in late January .
China’s reserves have soared in recent years as the People’s Bank bought dollars on a massive scale to prevent China’s currency from appreciating in value as money has poured into the country from trade surpluses and heavy foreign investment. But China’s trade surpluses have narrowed slightly as exports have fallen, while foreign investment has slowed as multinationals have conserved their cash.
Jun Ma, a Deutsche Bank economist in Hong Kong, predicted that China’s foreign reserves would only rise $100 billion this year after climbing $417.8 billion last year.
Some economists contend that slower growth in Chinese foreign currency reserves is not important to the economic health of the United States, even though it may be politically important. Instead of the Chinese government sending money out of the country in the first quarter to buy foreign bonds, individuals and companies in China were sending money out of the country to buy many of the same bonds.
“The outflow would mostly end up in the U.S. anyway,” even if the Chinese government is no longer controlling the destination of the money, said Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University, in an interview on Thursday.
Heavy purchases of Hong Kong dollars by mainland Chinese residents early this year also have the indirect effect of helping the United States to borrow money. The Hong Kong government pegs its currency to the American dollar and stepped up its purchases of Treasury bonds this winter in response to strong demand for Hong Kong dollars.
But China’s economy appears to be bouncing back from the global economic downturn faster than its trade partners’ economies. That could result in China pulling in more imports while exports recover less briskly. This would limit trade surpluses and leave the People’s Bank with less money to plow into foreign reserves. 最好少买 本文图表
不买最好！ 战术层面的问题，看看即可； “美元是美国的货币，是其他国家的问题。” 如果现在中国有美国那样的自由和民主我第一个去天安门抗议：抗议政府拿纳税人的钱买美国国债！！！
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