【09.04.13 纽约时报】中国的增长从沿海向内陆延伸
本帖最后由 aha 于 2009-4-15 01:08 编辑【原文标题】Growth Spreads From China’s Coast
【译文标题】中国的增长从沿海向内陆延伸
【来源地址】http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/business/global/14insideasia.html?scp=5&sq=china&st=cse
【译者】aha
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
中国的增长从沿海向内陆延伸
中国深圳-过去三十年来，沿海省份一直是中国式增长现象的领头羊，而当前，经济增长就像是零乱不均的墨迹正逐渐向内陆渗透延伸。
这种转变，可以粗略的和美国19世纪的西部大移民相类比，有助于中国缩小其沿海与内陆不健康的收入鸿沟。迄今为止，沿海省份吸收了大部分的政府和海外投资。
Steve Smith为之工作的精良电子正是这墨迹中的一分子。精良电子是传感器制造商，其产品应用于从汽车到起搏器等许多装备上，最近该企业在四川成都收购了一家小公司。
Smith先生是设在深圳的精良电子亚洲总部的总经理。他正考虑将一些非核心的劳动密集型的部门迁往成都。深圳毗邻香港，是中国最富裕的城市之一，而成都的花费（pay，支付，工资）是深圳的八成左右。他并声称他看到了一些可能性，让成都作为一个基地为公司的全球业务提供更多的服务。内陆很可能成为中国经济增长的下一波源泉，成千上万的像精良电子这样的公司为这一远景提供了支撑。
“虽然全球需求缩水会影响到出口导向型的沿海地区消费者的信心，不过出口及房地产市场下滑对内陆地区的广大消费者的影响相对要小一些。”汇丰银行的中国首席经济学家屈宏斌表示。
参考一些最近的数据：
中国统计局数据显示，今年头两个月，中国东部地区的固定资产投资上涨15.4%，而中部和西部地区，这一数据分别为34.3%和46.7%。
上周四发布的调查显示，第一季度西部地区的商业信心大大强于东部。
“分数的分布状态正反映了基于商业判断的增长潜力，过去十年强劲的增长主要集中在东部地区，遗留下面积庞大未开发的处女地，主要就在西部和中部地区。”悉尼Moody’s Economy.com的一位经济学家Sherman Chan说。
因为这样，现在中国发展最快的省份是资源丰富的内蒙古。2003年到2008年，该省的年平均增长率为19.7%。
内蒙古的农业就业人口占到社会总就业人口的70%以上，像这样的农业省份，一定还有巨大的增长空间。政府数据显示，中国的城市和农村的人均收入比2007年已经升至3.3倍。
由于担心日渐扩大的贫富差距，北京在1999年实施了“西部大开发”战略，2002年胡锦涛当政后更加推进了这一势头。胡先生以及温家宝总理在管理这些贫穷的内陆省份的过程中获得了很多经验。
除了加大农村基础设施建设和加大补助之外，当前的领导层废除了自古以来实行的农业税收制度，制定了乡村免费义务教育并建立了乡村医疗保险体系。
最近，中央政府首次允许地方政府发行债券，并给予西部和中部地区较大的份额。
“中国在实施改革缩减贫富差距方面一直谨小慎微，但是现在我们政策的力度正在开始显现。”北京亚洲发展银行的经济学家 Yolanda Fernandez-Lommen表示。
为了保持这个趋势，她说，必须建立一个基本的预算程序监管机制，这样，北京才能为那些无力满足社会消费需求的省份提供更多的资金。
虽然有种种挑战，一些经济学家对当前良好趋势的维持仍充满信心。为期三年的由政府补助的家电下乡计划有了一个令人鼓舞的开端，法国兴业银行的经济学家Glenn Maguire预计，2012年底前，在中国的乡村地区将会卖出6亿件家用电器，价值1，6万亿元，即2300亿美元。
总的来说，从现在到2012年，农村消费将每年为经济增长贡献2.5个百分点，他说。
“我们现在可以合理的宣布，一个庞大的初次消费家庭耐用品的市场大门正在打开，”Maguire先生在最近写给客户的笔记中表示。
如果他的判断正确，北京这次可谓是一箭三雕：既给生产过剩的企业提供了出口，也刺激了国内需求以弥补出口的下滑，同时缩小了中国沿海和内陆的贫富差距。
但是上海深圳这样的中国传统增长引擎出路何在呢？一些大大小小的迹象显示，经济学理论正在实践中运行：富裕城市正摆脱掉基础制造业而专注于高附加值的产业。
举个例子，全球最大的半导体商Intel，二月份宣布它将关闭一家上海的工厂，巩固在成都的芯片成组测试业务，不过其总部以及研发中心依然留在上海。Whirlpool上周也宣布将关闭其在上海的一家有600个工作岗位的洗衣机工厂，但仍保留其在上海的地区总部。
Smith先生有着相同的思路。为弥补出口市场的蒸发，精良电子在国内市场积极扩张30个百分点。他表示深圳对于他们这样的高科技公司仍是很好的选择。
他说：“深圳绝不是世界上或中国成本最低的地方，不过从工程和产品开发的角度看，深圳有很大的吸引力。”
Growth Spreads From China’s Coast
Published: April 13, 2009
SHENZHEN, China — Like a spreading ink blot, messy and uneven, economic growth is seeping inland from the coastal provinces that have been in the vanguard of China’s phenomenal growth over the past 30 years.
The shift, which has rough parallels with America’s westward migration in the 19th century, has the potential to narrow the noxious income gap between China’s vast, neglected interior and a relatively well-off seaboard that has hitherto attracted most of the investment by the Chinese government and foreign companies.
The company Steve Smith works for is part of the ink blot. The company, Measurement Specialties, a maker of sensors used in everything from cars to pacemakers, recently acquired a small firm in Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan Province.
Mr. Smith, general manager of Measurement Specialties’ Asian headquarters in Shenzhen, is already thinking of moving some noncore, labor-intensive operations to Chengdu. Pay there is about 80 percent of that in Shenzhen, which abuts Hong Kong and is one of China’s richest cities. He also said he saw the possibility of more sourcing for his company’s worldwide operations using Chengdu as a base. The experience of thousands of companies like Measurement Specialties buttresses the case that the inland could turn out to be one of the next wellsprings of China’s economic growth.
“Although shrinking global demand will affect consumer confidence in export-oriented coastal regions, the majority of consumers in interior regions will be much less vulnerable to the slowdown in exports and property markets,” said Qu Hongbin, chief China economist for HSBC.
Consider some recent statistics:
Urban fixed-asset investment in eastern China rose 15.4 percent in the first two months from a year earlier; in central and western China, it surged 34.3 percent and 46.7 percent, respectively, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Business confidence in the west was much stronger than in the east in the first quarter, according to statistics office surveys released last Thursday.
“The distribution of scores is a reflection of growth potential identified by businesses,” said Sherman Chan, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney. “Robust development in the past decade was concentrated in the east, leaving large untapped opportunities, mainly in the western and central areas.”
So it is that the fastest-growing part of China has been resource-rich Inner Mongolia. Between 2003 and 2008, the region enjoyed average growth of 19.7 percent a year.
Mainly rural provinces like Inner Mongolia, where agriculture accounts for more than 70 percent of total employment, certainly have a lot of ground to make up. The ratio of urban to rural income per person rose in China to a record level of 3.3 in 2007, government figures show.
Worried by the yawning wealth gap, Beijing introduced a “Go West” development policy in 1999 that has gathered momentum since President Hu Jintao took power in 2002. Both Mr. Hu and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao cut their teeth running poorer inland provinces.
Apart from spending more on rural infrastructure and subsidies, the current leadership has abolished the centuries-old agricultural tax, made compulsory education free in the countryside and set up a rural medical insurance scheme.
Recently, the central government has allowed local governments to issue bonds for the first time and has given the western and central provinces bigger quotas than those in the east.
“China has been rather timid since it started its reforms about taking measures to reduce the income gap, but now we’re seeing policies starting to come through,” said Yolanda Fernandez-Lommen, an economist with the Asian Development Bank in Beijing.
To sustain the trend, she said, a fundamental overhaul of budgetary procedures was needed so more cash flows from Beijing could support provinces unable to meet social spending needs.
Despite the challenges, some economists are confident that recent trends can be sustained. Based on the rousing start to a three-year plan to subsidize the purchase by country folk of major appliances like refrigerators, Glenn Maguire, a Société Générale economist, calculated that 600 million home appliances worth 1.6 trillion yuan, or $230 billion, could be sold in rural China by 2012.
Over all, rural consumption should add 2.5 percentage points to growth every year between now and then, he said.
“We can now legitimately claim that the dawning of a vast legion of first-time purchasers of household durable goods is here,” Mr. Maguire wrote in a recent note to clients.
If he’s right, Beijing will have killed several birds with one stone: finding an outlet for surplus manufacturing capacity, stoking domestic consumption to make up for the collapse of exports, and narrowing the gap between China’s coastal haves and inland have-nots.
But what about China’s traditional engines of growth in places like Shanghai and Shenzhen? The evidence, again fragmentary, suggests that economic theory is working in practice: richer cities are shedding basic manufacturing to concentrate on higher-value activities.
For example, Intel, the biggest semiconductor maker, said in February that it would close a plant in Shanghai to consolidate chip assembly and testing operations in Chengdu but would keep its headquarters and a research and development center in Shanghai. And Whirlpool said last week that it would close a washing machine factory in Shanghai, eliminating 600 jobs, but would keep its regional headquarters in the city.
Mr. Smith is thinking along the same lines. Measurement Specialties is expanding at a 30 percent clip in the domestic market, making up for the evaporation of exports, and he said that Shenzhen was still a good choice for a technology company like his.
“We’re definitely not the lowest-cost place in the world or in China, but it’s a very attractive place from an engineering and product development standpoint,” he said.
Alan Wheatley is a Reuters columnist.
本帖最后由 忧心 于 2009-4-15 00:59 编辑
补充一下：
"汇丰银行的中国首席经济学家Qu Hongbin",汇丰银行中国区首席经济学家是屈宏斌
"Société Générale"是法国兴业银行。
1# aha 多谢楼上。这就去改了。 这是很好的趋势，劳动密集型产业向中西部内陆转移，沿海地区向高端产业升级。
健全内地到沿海的交通与物流很重要，毕竟中国的西部不向美国也是沿海地区，中央的铁路大建设决策正是基于这一判断。
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