【09.04.22 澳大利亚人报】让我们客观的看待中国经济
本帖最后由 magicboy 于 2009-4-29 09:20 编辑【原文标题】Let's be realistic about China's economy
【中文标题】让我们客观的看待中国经济
【登载媒体】澳大利亚人报
【来源地址】http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25347672-5001942,00.html
【译者】Lydiamm
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-159797-1-1.html
【译文】
"LET a hundred flowers blossom" is a slogan Mao Zedong coined 50 years ago as he tried to talk up the Chinese economy and political system. Apart from flushing out a few political enemies, it didn't work; and while we may fervently hope the Chinese can energise the world's economy and send commodity prices up again, no one can really see it happening, at least for a year or so.
“百花齐放”是毛泽东在50年前试图讨论中国经济和政治体制时提出的口号。除了驱逐出少数的政治敌人外，它没有起任何作用；当我们期盼中国为世界经济提供帮助，再次提高物价的时候，没有人知道会不会发生，至少一两年内。
True, there are some encouraging signs. Copper is at a six-month high, white sugar is at an eight-month high and oil futures are about $US80 a barrelin 2015, perhaps pointing to growth.
实际上，出现了一些令人鼓舞的迹象。铜价出现了6个月以来的最高价，白糖价格也是8个月以来的最高，石油期货2015年到期的价格为80美金一桶，可能还会增长。
But to see these as green shoots about to blossom is asking a lot, as Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk points out: "Historically back to World War II, real industrial commodity prices have moved in the same direction as global growth relative to trend.
但要看到这些绿芽（最终）开花，仍需要许多（努力）。正如西太银行的高级经济学家指出的那样：“回溯到第二次世界大战期间，工业品的实际价格和全球经济增长的趋势相同。”
"Growth is negative in 2009, so it's well below trend, and set to remain so in 2010. "We can't get optimistic about commodities this year."
“2009年经济增长率呈现负增长，而按照这一趋势，2010年经济可能仍会保持负增长”
“今年的商品价格不容乐观。”
In 2010, most expect base metals, oil and farm commodities to find a base with a possible modest tick up by year's end. Bulk commodities, however, such as iron ore and coal, could fall 50per cent from peak to trough. . X+
2010年，大部分人期望矿物原料、石油和农产品价格能在年底有小幅上涨以找到一个基础价位。然而，大宗商品如铁矿和煤炭的价格可能会从最高点有50%的下降。
Oil is interesting. The forward contract on West Texas Intermediate for 2015 delivery is on a five-month high at $US80 a barrel, which could mean tight supply more than strong demand from industry. Higher prices could bring more supply and pull prices back, but it's a hard call.
有趣的是石油。2015年到期的西德克萨斯中质原油远期期货合约的价格达到了5个月以来的最高点，$US80一桶，这意味着紧张的原油供应更难满足工业的巨大需求。更高的价格会带来更多的供应，从而将价格拉下来，但是远期合约很难交付.
When Mao's critics emerged after his "hundred blossoms" speech thinking it was safe to do so, they were promptly executed.
在毛泽东提出“百花齐放”的理论之后，又发表评论认为该理论是安全可行的之后，他们就被立刻执行。
Investors looking at commodities need to be wary of something almost as unpleasant if the early promising signs turn out to be a furphy.
商品投资者需对他们的投资保持谨慎，如果关于他们所投资的商品的前景预测都最终都只是谎言的话，其投资结果必然不容乐观。
翻译交流见：沙发、6楼
标题应为“客观地看待”。
墨羽 发表于 2009-4-27 11:29 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
When Mao's critics emerged after his "hundred blossoms" speech thinking it was safe to do so, they were promptly executed.
在毛泽东提出“百花齐放”的理论之后，又发表评论认为该理论是安全可行的之后，他们就被立刻执行。
上述句子应该翻译为：当毛的批评者们认为批评毛的“百花齐放”的说法是安全的时候，这些批评者被很快处决了。 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif 标题应为“客观地看待”。 内容很空洞 不知所云？ 百花齐放和经济有什么关系？ When Mao's critics emerged after his "hundred blossoms" speech thinking it was safe to do so, they were promptly executed.
在毛泽东提出“百花齐放”的理论之后，又发表评论认为该理论是安全可行的之后，他们就被立刻执行。
上述句子应该翻译为：当毛的批评者们认为批评毛的“百花齐放”的说法是安全的时候，这些批评者被很快处决了。 不知所云,等于没说
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