【09.05.07 泰晤士报】危机过后，天下还是美国的
本帖最后由 magicboy 于 2009-5-9 05:19 编辑【原文标题】America will still rule the post-crisis world
【中文标题】危机过后，天下还是美国的
【登载媒体】the times
【来源地址】http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article6236597.ece
【译者】aha
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=163430&extra=
【译文】
As green shoots sprout on Wall Street, other nations are emerging from the recession in worse shape than the US
华尔街新芽初发，别的国家也渐渐从衰退中复苏，只是状况比美国更遭。
Anatole Kaletsky
I am just back from Washington where the green shoots of recovery have sprouted into a jungle on Wall Street, if not yet on main street or in other countries. I was addressing a meeting of US and European diplomats to survey the geopolitical horizons.
我刚从华盛顿回来，如果说别的国家或者美国自身的主体经济（main street）还没有彻底复苏，华尔街内已经是春意无限了。我在华盛顿参加了一个会议，出席者为美欧的外交官，会议探讨了地缘政治的新变化。
As the world economy gradually returns to something approaching normality after the catastrophe triggered by the Lehmans bankruptcy on September 15 last year, thoughts naturally turn to the longer-term effects of the crisis.
去年九月十五日，雷曼兄弟的倒闭引发的这场金融海啸让世界大为震荡，如今，世界经济正慢慢向常态恢复。于是，人们自然地开始思考起这一危机的长期影响。
Economic models are never good at predicting turning points in cycles, but in these conditions they are completely useless. To assess the long-term political and ideological impact, it makes more sense to consider two scenarios.
经济模型从不善于预测周期转折点，而在当前的情况下，他们更是一点用处也没有。要评估长期的政治和意识形态影响，考虑以下两种情形更有意义。
In the first, which has dominated thinking throughout the crisis, the deflationary forces of the credit crunch prevail and the world sinks into a recession lasting many years, with unemployment soaring to levels last seen in the 1930s. In that case, this crisis really will mark the end of US dominance, not only as a global power, but also as an economic model and source of political inspiration. But rather than neatly shifting the mantle of global leadership to China or maybe Europe - if we take seriously the triumphalist rhetoric of President Sarkozy after the London G20 summit about the death of the Anglo-Saxon model - a prolonged recession would usher in chaos.
第一种，信贷通货紧缩蔓延，世界陷入持续多年的衰退，失业率暴升，直至上世纪30年代的水平。这是危机时期人们的主要设想。在这种情况下，危机真的将标志美国统治地位的终结，不仅是作为一个全球强权的终结，同时也是作为一个经济模式和政治感召力的终结。然而，世界领导者的披风不会轻巧的落在中国身上，或者欧洲（萨科齐总统在G20峰会后宣称盎格鲁撒克逊模式已经死亡，如果我们认真对待这种胜利在望的花言巧语的话）反而更加持久的衰退会让世界陷入混乱。
China is far too poor, too technologically backward and too inward-looking to be a credible economic leader and its social arrangements are hardly a model for the democratic world. As for Europe, it would suffer even more institutional damage than the US from a prolonged depression, as it did in the 1930s. In short, the widely predicted depression would lead to what some investors describe as the Mad Max world: a state of global anarchy in which the only assets worth owning would be farmland and oil wells - and the guns and ammunition to protect them.
中国还是太贫穷，太内向，科技也太过落后，其社会秩序对民主世界来说还算不上一个模范。而欧洲，与1930年代一样，将在一个更持久的萧条中，比美国遭受更多的制度上的破坏。简而言之，预测中的广泛的萧条会导致世界进入一些投资者所描述的疯狂的马克斯时代：一种全球性的无政府状态，唯一有价值的财产就是农田和油井，及用来保护它们的军火弹药。
The alternative possibility is that monetary and fiscal stimulus succeed and the world returns to normal growth and moderate unemployment within a year or so. To judge by much commentary, this benign outcome is unlikely. But on Wall Street and in much of Asia it is becoming the mainstream assumption.
另一种可能就是，货币和财政刺激方案取得成功，世界重回正常的经济增长，并维持一年左右的中等失业率。但是根据许多评论的判断，这一愿景不太可能实现。不过在华尔街以及亚洲的大部分地区，这已成为主流设想。
In my view, the benign scenario should be the focus of all policy discussions for two reasons. First, because economic theory tells us that fiscal and monetary reflation will succeed and hints of success are starting to show. The second reason is an economic equivalent of Pascal's Wager: if the world is about to collapse into anarchy and nothing can be done, there is no benefit in predicting it. If, on the other hand, the end of the world can be averted, acting on this assumption, will make recovery more likely. But even on this benign assumption, some big upheavals may lie ahead.
在我看来，这一良好愿景应作为所有政策讨论的核心，我有两个原因。第一，根据经济理论，财政及货币支出可以达到效果，一些成功的苗头也已经开始显现。第二个原因是经济学的帕斯卡赌注：如果世界将陷入无政府状态，所有事业都将停顿，那么预测它也毫无益处。从另一方面看，如果可以避免世界末日，那么照此愿景去努力，复苏的可能性就会更大。但即使这一愿景得以实现，一些剧变或许不可避免。
The financial crisis has profoundly changed US politics. It has convinced voters of the need for government, and of leaders who believe in government. With the election of an Administration dedicated to competent government, things have improved, as voters have noticed. Thus US and European ideology have moved closer together. Many Bush Administration foreign, social and environmental policies have been reversed, sending the signal that Americans no longer live on a different planet from the rest of us. As a result, America has become more attractive as a political model throughout the democratic world.
金融危机已经深刻的改变了美国政治。它使选民相信他们需要政府，需要对政府尽责的领导人。随着新一届政府的当选，他们致力于出色的管理，选民已经注意到，情况有所好转。如今，美欧各自的意识形态与对方更加接近。许多布什政府时期的外交政策，社会政策和环境政策都发生了改变。显示美国人不再生活在另外一个星球。也因为如此，作为一个政治模式的美国，在整个民主世界中变得更有吸引力了。
Less obviously, the US economic model, far from being discredited, may be strengthened by this crisis. If the US returns to growth much faster than Europe and Japan, the crisis will reaffirm the resilience of Anglo-Saxon capitalism, provided that it is not confused with totally deregulated market fundamentalism.
不太明显的一点是，在危机中，美国的经济模式远没有失去信誉，或许还有所加强。如果美国经济恢复到比欧洲和日本高得多的增长率，那么此次危机将重新宣示盎格鲁撒克逊式资本主义的复苏，前提是其不被完全自由市场的基本教义派所迷惑。
Moreover, the crisis may strengthen the US economy structurally by promoting President Obama's agenda of clean energy and healthcare reform. Developing new energy sources will play to America's advantage in technology, while correctly-managed healthcare reform could reduce the cost burden that has crushed many US industries.
另外，通过奥巴马总统推动的清洁能源和医疗改革计划，此次危机或许能够从结构上使美国经济更加牢固。新能源的开发让美国的科技优势有了用武之地，而良好经营的医疗改革能够减轻压在许多美国产业身上的沉重负担。
For Europe, the crisis has exacerbated three distinct problems. First, global deleveraging is having a bigger impact on Germany than on the US or Britain. Second, Eastern Europe faces a catastrophic financial crisis, like the one in Thailand and Indonesia 12 years ago. Third, the euro has been transformed into a source of vulnerability rather than strength because Europe's sovereign borrowers can no longer print their own money, making them prone to default in the same way as state and local governments in the US.
对欧洲而言，此次危机进一步加剧了三个突出的问题。第一，全球去杠杆化对德国的影响要比对美国英国的影响更大。第二，东欧面临灾难性的金融危机，类似12年前泰国和印尼的遭遇。第三，欧元不再是优势，而变成了一个弱点，因为欧洲的主权债户们已经不能再加印货币，这使得他们像美国的州政府和地方政府一样很可能无力还债。
The result of this perfect storm is that Europe will probably become more inward-looking. The question of more or less Europe will have to be debated anew, as maintaining the status quo may not be compatible with the survival of the euro or the new financial regulations now widely demanded. In Central Europe the painful consequences of the harsh economic reforms imposed by Germany, the European Commission or the IMF in exchange for financial support will probably strengthen the influence of Russia, which handled its own financial crisis surprisingly well.
这次完美风暴的结果可能使欧洲变得更加内向。欧洲多多少少要重新讨论一些问题，比如维持现状是否有利于欧元的生存，或者是否与新的财政规则一致。德国激烈的经济改革会给中欧带来沉痛的后果，欧盟或国际货币基金组织就需要相应的金融支持，这很可能会增加俄罗斯的影响力。而俄罗斯对金融危机应对有方，令人惊讶。
Turning to Asia and China, does this crisis mark the moment of transition from US to Chinese dominance? Probably not. For Japan even more than Germany, the crisis has been a total disaster and the concept of export-led growth has been discredited.
转向亚洲和中国，这次危机是否标志着世界的统治地位从美国向中国转移？大概不会。因为这次危机对日本的打击比德国更大，完全是一场灾难，出口导向型增长模式已经不再可靠。
China's leaders understand the dangers of excessive dependence on exports and are trying to shift emphasis to domestic growth. But this will slow productivity growth and economic development and it is not clear if China's authoritarian politics can adapt to a society emphasising consumption rather than production.
中国的领导人了解，过度依赖出口十分危险，他们正努力促进内需增长。但这样做会减缓生产力提高和经济发展的速度。现在还无法明确，中国的独裁政治是否能适应一个重视消费多过生产的社会。
Finally, what of the dollar's status as a reserve currency? Those who argue that US budget deficits and monetary expansion will destroy its international status must point to another currency underpinned by stronger fiscal and monetary foundations. At present, there is no such currency, except possibly the Chinese yuan, which cannot be legally owned by foreign investors.
最后，美元作为储备货币的地位会如何？有人主张，美国的财政赤字和其货币扩张政策会摧毁美元的国际地位，但他们必须得提供另外一种货币选择，必须有强壮的财政和货币基础做支撑。目前来说，没有这样的货币存在，中国的元或许有可能，但当下外国投资者还不能合法持有。
Those who argued that the dollar would collapse because of the global crisis forgot that to sell one currency it is necessary to buy another. The currency game is not a beauty contest but an ugly contest, in which investors must choose the currency that is least ugly.
那些认为美元会在此次金融危机中崩溃的人忘了一点，如果要卖掉一种货币你需要买入另一种。货币游戏不是一场美人评选，却是一场丑人评选，投资者必须选出最不丑陋的那一种。
In some ways this is true of global geopolitics. The crisis may have revealed grave flaws in the US economic and political models. But the weaknesses in other countries have become even more obvious. The logical conclusion is that President Obama's post-crisis America will be more powerful and influential than it was under President Bush.
从某些角度来说，这就是国际地缘政治的真相。危机或许揭示了美国经济模式和政治模式中的严重缺陷，但其他国家的虚弱更加暴露无遗。合乎逻辑的结论是，奥巴马统治下的后危机时代的美国，将比布什时代的美国更强大，更有影响力。 乱七八糟没有逻辑 哈哈，拭目以待。 错了 还是地球的 站在架子上看问题的“独立思维”。 中国还是太贫穷，太内向，科技也太过落后，其社会秩序对民主世界来说还算不上一个模范。
這作者我服了，跟主題無關就便說好不好。 华尔街内已经是春意无限了？在哪呢？貌似此文并没有说出实例
这大不列颠学会讨好美国已经有许多年，就是注意别拍在马蹄上：还要危机过后，难道现在的天下不是美国的吗？小心被打PP 嗯~嗯~
天下还是美国的也就还是英国的,英国人还是有把握跟在美国后面当跟班的Q79) 为他们主子说话的YY帖？？？ 英国、美国哥俩好啊. 天下事美国的？普天之下莫非王土？ 不可否认文章中说的是实情．我们还没到称王的时间． 不用夸大其词 我们又没争天下 该我们的跑不了 Mr Kaletsky was born in 1952 in Moscow, USSR and also spent his childhood in Poland
这号毛国流亡西方记者的货色
不是反共 也是反华
总之唱衰为主 呵呵，胡言乱语起来了 这也是记者写的......很乱 很糟 典型的自我安慰！好笑好笑！！ 天下当然是美国的，世界上惟我独尊的军事实力。 看完此位记者的文章，感觉就是一个跳梁小丑自闭在密室中意淫中产生的想法。。。。 TIMES太肤浅！如同魔咒般的一次次到来的经济危机是资本主义社会的专有产物！我要说：世界按这个模式走下去，这次金融危机的结束不过是下次XX危机的开始！
要更配合某些国家心态，还不如把题目改成：危机过后，美国还是我亲爹！
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