【09.05.14 纽约时报】碳排放的帝国
本帖最后由 I'm_zhcn 于 2009-5-22 08:07 编辑【原文标题】Empire of Carbon
【中文标题】碳排放的帝国
【登载媒体】纽约时报
【来源地址】http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/15/opinion/15krugman.html?_r=1
【译者】nbnbren
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-165355-1-1.html
【译文】
Empire of Carbon
I have seen the future, and it won’t work.
我看到了未来，但不管用。
These should be hopeful times for environmentalists. Junk science no longer rules in Washington. President Obama has spoken forcefully about the need to take action on climate change; the people I talk to are increasingly optimistic that Congress will soon establish a cap-and-trade system that limits emissions of greenhouse gases, with the limits growing steadily tighter over time. And once America acts, we can expect much of the world to follow our lead.
对环境保护论者来说，希望的时间来了。在华盛顿，垃圾科学在不再管用。奥巴马总统发表了强硬的谈话，必要对气候变化采取行动了。我谈论过的一些人们的乐观情绪在上升，
国会很快就会设立“限额交易”系统，来限制温室气体的排放，随着时间的推移，限制也将有规律的趋紧。而且，一旦美国行动起来，我们可以预期很多国家会追随我们。
But that still leaves the problem of China, where I have been for most of the last week.
Like every visitor to China, I was awed by the scale of the country’s development. Even the annoying aspects — much of my time was spent viewing the Great Wall of Traffic — are byproducts of the nation’s economic success.
But China cannot continue along its current path because the planet can’t handle the strain.
但是中国仍有疑问，上周大多数是加我在那里
像每个参观中国的人一样，我也对中国大幅度的发展充满敬畏。即使那些烦人的外在问题----我参观长城时需要花很多在路上-----这是国家成功经济发展的副产品。
但是中国不能在继续沿着目前的方向走下去了，因为这星球无法承受更多的了。
The scientific consensus on prospects for global warming has become much more pessimistic over the last few years. Indeed, the latest projections from reputable climate scientists border on the apocalyptic. Why? Because the rate at which greenhouse gas emissions are rising is matching or exceeding the worst-case scenarios.
And the growth of emissions from China — already the world’s largest producer of carbon dioxide — is one main reason for this new pessimism.
过去几年，科学界大多数对全球变暖的前景变得很悲观。真的，来自一些著名的气候科学家的最新预测接近了启示录。为什么？因为温室气体的排放上升的等级接近或超过了最坏的预期。
中国排放的增加-----以成为地球上CO2的最大产地-----这也是那些悲观者的主要因素之一。
China’s emissions, which come largely from its coal-burning electricity plants, doubled between 1996 and 2006. That was a much faster pace of growth than in the previous decade. And the trend seems set to continue: In January, China announced that it plans to continue its reliance on coal as its main energy source and that to feed its economic growth it will increase coal production 30 percent by 2015. That’s a decision that, all by itself, will swamp any emission reductions elsewhere.
So what is to be done about the China problem?
中国的排放，很大部分来自煤电厂，1996-2006增加了2倍。这比过去的十年增长更快，而且这个倾向看起来将延续，中国宣布计划继续将煤炭作为其主要能源，到2015年，随经济发展需要，煤产品将增长30%。这就决定了，就这些增长，就抵消了其他地区的排放降低。
那么该怎么解决中国问题呢？
Nothing, say the Chinese. Each time I raised the issue during my visit, I was met with outraged declarations that it was unfair to expect China to limit its use of fossil fuels. After all, they declared, the West faced no similar constraints during its development; while China may be the world’s largest source of carbon-dioxide emissions, its per-capita emissions are still far below American levels; and anyway, the great bulk of the global warming that has already happened is due not to China but to the past carbon emissions of today’s wealthy nations.
And they’re right. It is unfair to expect China to live within constraints that we didn’t have to face when our own economy was on its way up. But that unfairness doesn’t change the fact that letting China match the West’s past profligacy would doom the Earth as we know it.
中国人说，没关系。每次我访问中国，提升我的问题事，我总是遇到风怒的回应。这很不公平期望中国人限制使用化石燃料，毕竟，他们宣称，西方在他们发展时没面对类似约束。但中国有可能成为世界上最大的CO2排放来源地时，他人均排放仍远低于美国，总之，全球气候变暖巨大部分已经发生，但不是中国的原因，而是今日发达国家过去的碳排放引起的。
Historical injustice aside, the Chinese also insisted that they should not be held responsible for the greenhouse gases they emit when producing goods for foreign consumers. But they refused to accept the logical implication of this view — that the burden should fall on those foreign consumers instead, that shoppers who buy Chinese products should pay a “carbon tariff” that reflects the emissions associated with those goods’ production. That, said the Chinese, would violate the principles of free trade.
历史么有公平暂放一边。中国人还坚持他们不应为他们为西方消费者生产商品时排放的温室气体负责，。但是他们也拒绝接受合乎逻辑的相关观点-----把担子落在西方消费者身上，购买跟碳排放有关联的中国产品时，顾客需要支付“碳税",。
这样，中国人说了，违法了自由贸易的准则。
Sorry, but the climate-change consequences of Chinese production have to be taken into account somewhere. And anyway, the problem with China is not so much what it produces as how it produces it. Remember, China now emits more carbon dioxide than the United States, even though its G.D.P. is only about half as large (and the United States, in turn, is an emissions hog compared with Europe or Japan).
The good news is that the very inefficiency of China’s energy use offers huge scope for improvement. Given the right policies, China could continue to grow rapidly without increasing its carbon emissions. But first it has to realize that policy changes are necessary.
对不起，但是中国产品的气候变化的必须算在某个地方，总之，中国问题不只是那些产品怎样生产，生产什么那么简单。记住，中国现在ＣＯ２的排放超过了美国，经管GDP只有其一般大（其次是美国，同日本，欧盟比，是一个排放的肥猪）
好消息是中国非常效能地的的能源消费给出了巨大的改进空间，指定正确的政策，中国在没有增加碳排放的基础上能持续快速前进。前提是必须认识到政策改变的必要性。
There are hints, in statements emanating from China, that the country’s policy makers are starting to realize that their current position is unsustainable. But I suspect that they don’t realize how quickly the whole game is about to change.
As the United States and other advanced countries finally move to confront climate change, they will also be morally empowered to confront those nations that refuse to act. Sooner than most people think, countries that refuse to limit their greenhouse gas emissions will face sanctions, probably in the form of taxes on their exports. They will complain bitterly that this is protectionism, but so what? Globalization doesn’t do much good if the globe itself becomes unlivable.
It’s time to save the planet. And like it or not, China will have to do its part.
曙光初现，来自中国的排放声明，国家政策制定者开始意识到他们目前的观点是不能成立的，但是我怀疑，他们是否意识到同变化比赛需要多快。
当美国和其他发达国家最终开始正视气候变化问题是，他们也能在道德上反击那些拒绝行动的国家。很快，也许超过人们想象，那些拒绝限制温室气体排放的国家将面临制裁，也许以征税的形式对他们的出口商品，他们也许会苦苦抱怨那是保护主义，但那又怎样？如果地球变得不宜居住，全球化就不那么完美。
是时候了，救救星球，不管喜欢与否，中国将必须完成自己的使命。 京都协议书 美国好像没有签署阿 见过无耻的，没见过这么无耻的！ 美国才是大头吧 欢迎中国背黑锅
什么京都协议书
我老美就不签！ 地球是大家的,CO2多排了是大家都不好 美国法国意识到CO2的时候都成为发达国家了，当然站着说话不腰疼
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