【09.07.08澳大利亚人】中国应该重视一下经济增长的质量
本帖最后由 magicboy 于 2009-7-28 23:31 编辑【中文标题】中国应该重视一下经济增长的质量【原文标题】 China should focus on quality of growth, not the pace【登载媒体】澳大利亚人
【来源地址】http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25748412-5018066,00.html
【译者】波默默妞
【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=179939&extra=page%3D1%26amp%3Bfilter%3Dtype%26amp%3Btypeid%3D213
【译文】
CHINA'S economy has recovered faster than many expected. The government targeted 8 per cent growth early in the crisis, and will likely meet its target later this year.
中国的经济恢复得比很多人预想的要快。早先其政府制订了经济增长在此次危机中要达到8%的目标，而这个目标将很有可能在今年晚些时候被实现。
It is an impressive result given that many of the region's other economies are contracting. Yet, chasing a growth target has only exaggerated economic imbalances, and cracks in the economy are now starting to emerge.
在这个地区的其它经济体都在萎缩的大背景之下，中国的成就令人印象深刻。但是，一味的追求经济的增长速度只会使经济更加不平衡，而且其经济已经开始出现裂缝。
The problem is that government is too heavily focused on the pace of growth, rather than the quality of growth.
问题就处在政府过于注重增长的速度而忽略了增长的质量。
First, fiscal deficit spending has left the economy worryingly dependent on public investment spending, even as private spending is likely contracting. Of course, China releases no detailed data on the latter. However, exports are 30 per cent below their peak, and domestic competition is intensifying as a result of a build-up of manufacturing slack, so it is unlikely that private firms are building new factories or buying new equipment.
首先，私人投资很可能处于逐步萎缩当中，而此时，财政的赤字开支使经济令人忧虑地依赖于政府投资。当然，中国政府没有公布私人投资的有关细节。但是，出口已经比高峰时下降了３０％，而且国内的竞争因为制造业的缩水而加剧，所以私人公司也不可能建造新厂房或者购买新设备。
Second, and more worryingly, the government appears to be pumping up the property sector again in a bid to meet the growth target. After tightening policy towards the property sector last year, officials have since made a policy u-turn. The property market has responded. Housing starts are growing again after only a brief dip last year. Home prices are also rising in a number of cities. Local media worry openly about a property bubble.
其次，更加令人担心的是，政府显然希望通过再次给房地产市场大气来达到增长目标。在去年的针对房地产的紧缩政策之后，今天政府来了个１８０度大转弯。房地产市场也做出了回应。住房首付在去年的短暂下降之后又开始上升。一些城市的房价也开始回升。当地的媒体也公开表露出担心存在房地产泡沫。
Credit growth is another concern. The central bank relaxed monetary policy aggressively in the wake of the crisis, as did central banks across the world. But credit growth in China has surged by seven trillion yuan ($1.283 trillion) in the past six months, or more than the country's banks lent out in the previous two years. There are only limited details on how the credit was used. But estimates suggest that only half of the value is being spent on bridges, factories, or railways.
贷款的增长又是一个问题。危机一开始，中央银行紧跟着就很积极地放宽了货币政策，世界上其它的央行们也都是这么做的。中国的贷款额在过去的六个月已经激增到７万亿元（1.283万亿美元）比过去两年间银行借出去的钱都多。关于这些贷款流向的细节我们知之甚少。但是据估计其中只有一半被用于建设桥梁，工厂或者铁路。
And the remainder? A State Council-associated economist recently estimated that it was being used to buy equities and property. I would add commodities to the list. For instance, there are stories of property developers having cashed in and purchasing copper inventories in anticipation that the fiscal stimulus is going to push commodity prices higher. It is no surprise that local media also worry about the risks of another credit bubble.
剩下的呢？一个隶属国务院的经济学家最近估计是用于购买普通股和房地产，还有商品。比如就有传闻说，在财政刺激可能促使物价上升的预期之下，一些房地产商把钱兑现后去购买铜。因此当地媒体很自然的会担心出现另外一轮信贷泡沫。
The irony is that small and medium-sized enterprises are starved of capital. Take the example of Wong Yongding, manager of an electrical goods company in Shenzhen. He says that, in spite of a 10-year operating record, evidence of tax and customs payments, and a good credit record, he is unable to take out a loan without first pledging property as a security. Many SMEs are unable to pledge assets of sufficient value to take out the size of loan needed.
讽刺的是，中小企业处于急缺资金的状态下。拿王永定（音译）来说，他是深圳一个电子产品公司的经理。他说，尽管公司运营了10年，有缴税记录，还有良好的信用记录，如果没有抵押物他还是无法向银行贷款。很多中小企业都没有足够的抵押物来贷到他们所需的资金。
The SMEs sector is often overlooked because of lack of data. But it accounts for up to 60 per cent of the economy and an even greater share of employment owing to its tendency to focus on labour-intensive production. The government is offering subsidies for the consumption of manufactured goods, but Chinese consumers cannot yet replace deleveraging foreign consumers.
中小企业容易被忽视，因为关于它们的资料太少。但是它们占据了经济总量的60%，而且劳动密集型的生产使它们能够解决大部分就业问题。购买制成品可以得到政府提供的补助，但是中国的消费者的消费能力还不足以代替外国消费者。
The SMEs will have to restructure dramatically if they are to survive.
中小企业如果想要继续生存的话，需要进行大幅度的改革。
Indeed, the lessons of the late-1990s are clear. It was during this period that growth last slowed sharply. However, it was economic reform, not fiscal spending, which produced the double-digit growth rates of the subsequent years. The scale of the reforms in the late-1990s was astonishing and, to name a few, included liberalisation of the property sector, entry to the World Trade Organisation, and the restructuring of state-owned enterprises.
其实，90年代末期的给我们的教训很清楚。在那段时间经济迅速下滑。然而，促生后来几年两位数的增长速度的并不是财政支出而是经济改革。90年代后期的改革幅度是巨大的，举几个例子，其中包括房地产的自由化，加入世界贸易组织（WTO），国有企业重组。
China needs the same "big-bang" reforms today. What might these reforms look like?
中国如今需要同样的大刀阔斧的改革。应该有什么样的改革呢？
It is popularly argued that the economy needs to reorient away from external demand towards domestic demand. But it also needs to restructure away from manufacturing towards services. Manufacturing accounts for almost half of China's economy. This is high even when measured against Asia's other major manufacturers -- manufacturing accounts for a quarter of Korea's economy, and an even smaller share in Taiwan.
中国经济需要从依赖国外需求转向国内的需求，这个说法现在很流行。但是经济还需要从制造业主导改革到服务业主导。制造业在中国经济中占据了差不多一半以上的份额。这种情况甚至跟亚洲其它制造国家相比都算很高的了——制造业在韩国经济中占四分之一，在台湾就更小了。
The services sector is arguably China's last great untapped growth driver. But it suffers from heavy regulation and government monopolies just like the manufacturing sector did two decades ago. The government must liberalise the services sector and encourage the private sector to run schools, establish hospitals, or operate travel agencies. If so, China will not be alone, as services account for a growing share of activity in all of Asia's big manufacturers.
服务业可以认为是中国经济最后一个还未使用的驱动器。但是它被繁琐的规章制度和政府垄断束缚着，跟制造业20年前的情况一样。政府必须使服务业自由化，鼓励私营成分设立学校，建立医院或者运营运输机构。这样的话，在亚洲制造业大国中中国不会是唯一一个服务业的份量逐渐增大的国家。
The service sector will not save the economy from today's crisis. But it will lay the foundations for more balanced growth over the next decade.
服务业的改革并不能把经济从这次危机中拯救出来。但是它能使经济在下个十年里有更加平衡的增长。
The world's belief that China will meet its growth target has buoyed confidence, and Australia has benefited in particular through higher commodity prices. Yet, our confidence may be misplaced if the result is more overcapacity and another asset price bubble. And the risks to Australia are especially acute if commodity prices take a tumble as final demand slows.
世界相信，中国将履行其增长目标，这着实让人信心大振，而且澳大利亚从高涨的商品价格获益很多。我们的信心可能是错误的，如果结局是生产能力更大的过剩和另外一轮资产价格泡沫。如果最终需求下降使商品价格迅速下跌，澳大利亚将会有严峻的风险。
It is time for the growth target to be lowered, or better yet, eliminated altogether, and for both the central and provincial governments to focus on the quality of growth, not the pace.
为了使中央和地方政府着眼于增长的质量而不是速度，是时候降低一下增长目标了，或者干脆放弃这个目标。
Ben Simpfendorfer is chief China economist for the Royal Bank of Scotland and author of The New Silk Road
作者Ben Simpfendorfer是苏格兰皇家银行的首席中国经济学家，著有《新丝绸之路》。 好久不见楼主，支持一个
文章标题挺好，不管内容的新意还是少了点{:10_403:} 澳大利亚是怎样.?
誓死要跟中国闹翻吗?
好啊.跟13亿作对不会有好结果的.
树大招风.有些人就是眼红别人的好 3# 死亡角色
这不过是正常的经济分析，各有各的观点，我认为，这篇文章不存在非要和中国闹翻这种情况。 开始有些道理，中国确实还应调整产业结构，但后来说服务业那个纯属胡说八道！中国医院、学校价钱还嫌不高吗？美国私有医疗都要改革了，中国难道还要重蹈覆辙？ 很到位，虽然都是老生常谈，但是确实是中国改革的顽疾和解决方向；只是盘根错节的既得利益，甚至是守旧思维的阻碍，老外只能估测，实难有第一手的感触；我个人觉得中国经济改革到了十字路口，退一步就是万劫不复。 至少学校改放，不要怕，只要监管到的位。中国老百姓是能理解的 开始有些道理，中国确实还应调整产业结构，但后来说服务业那个纯属胡说八道！中国医院、学校价钱还嫌不高吗？美国私有医疗都要改革了，中国难道还要重蹈覆辙？ ...
忧心 发表于 2009-7-29 10:45 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
我认为文章对那个服务也的解读是对的
他说说私有资本能进入这些行业竞争，不会提高原有价格，比如学校，有钱的可以进入私立学校，私立医院，多些第三产业，可以提高就业 其实道理都明白！
但这么大个经济体增长模式转型，谈何容易！
依靠房地产和金融刺激经济的确是立竿见影。但风险太高，容易自己给自己挖个大坑，把自己埋了。
放开政府对经济的管制应该是当前政府优先考虑的。但政府为了保稳定而大包大揽却成了拦路虎。
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