【09.08.03 泰晤士报】中国推进货币国际化
本帖最后由 vivicat 于 2009-8-4 17:50 编辑【中文标题】中国推进货币国际化
【原文标题】China moves to internationalise its currency
【登载媒体】TimesOnline
【来源地址】http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6736681.ece
【译者】孙无空【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-186415-1-1.html【译文】
China moves to internationalise its currency
中国推进货币国际化
August 3, 2009
Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent
China is rapidly accelerating its efforts to internationalise its currency with a series of manoeuvres that could see the renminbi soar to become one of the top three traded monetary units in the world.
中国采取了一系列策略，加快了使得其货币进入国际的努力，将可以看到人民币飞速成为当今世界顶尖的三大贸易货币之一。
By 2012, say analysts in Shanghai, as much as $2 trillion (￡1.69 trillion) worth of trade flows may be settled using the “redback” as China stretches its commercial tentacles throughout the commodity-producing world and the emerging economies of Asia, Latin America and the Middle East.
上海的一些分析家认为，到2012年，随着中国的商业触角延伸到全部的日用产品世界和亚洲，拉美及中东的新兴经济体，差不多有2万亿美元（1.69万亿英镑）的贸易流动额将使用“红背”结算（注：人民币，美元GREENBACK，绿背）
The radical change in attitude may arise from a desire to protect China from the “dollar trap” — the problem that emerges when exporting countries are effectively forced to shovel large chunks of their reserves into the US treasury and suffer the consequences in times of high volatility.
态度的根本性变化可能是由于为了保护中国免于“美元圈套” ------问题已经显现出来了，当那些出口为主的国家不得不把大量的外汇储备一股脑扔进美国国库，但是面对瞬间蒸发，痛苦万分。
The rising financial power of the renminbi may also prove to be the salvation of Hong Kong in its intensifying rivalry with Shanghai for international relevance.
人民币日益上升的财力也可能成为香港的救星，它正和上海为国际地位加强其竞争态势。
The former British colony, say economists at Barclays Capital, may be able to secure its status as a premier global financial hub by rebranding itself as China’s offshore renminbi banking centre. Renminbi internationalisation is essential if Hong Kong “is to have any long-term hope of being like London or New York,” according to the bank.
以前的英国殖民地，Barclays银行的经济学家认为，通过从新打造使其作为中国海外人民币金融中心，这也许能确保其第一国际金融中心的地位。据该银行说，如果香港“有成为像伦敦和纽约那样的长期期望”，那么人民币国际化是要点。
Political analysts believe full international currency status for the renminbi could take some time to become politically acceptable to the full spectrum of views within the Communist Party, warning that there would be significant policy hurdles surrounding the perceived loss of currency control.
政治分析家相信，人民币全球流通的地位还需要一些时间，需要在中国共产党内部得到一张的政治认可，警告说，围绕着货币控制权的流失，这还将成为重大的政治障碍。
However, China’s soaring economic growth and global financial turmoil could be pushing the process ahead faster than the market expects. Recent measures, including currency swap agreements with several central banks and the allowing of renminbi-denominated crossborder trade, have significantly changed the environment, HSBC said in a research note.
无论如何，中国高涨的经济增长和全球金融混乱将推进这个过程的更快前进，甚至比市场预测的要快。恒生银行在一个调查报告里说到，最新的一些措施，包括同几个央行签订的外汇互惠信贷，允许人民币越境交易，都引人注目改变了使用环境。
If, as some predict, China overtakes Japan to become the world’s second biggest economy next year, the pressure for the renminbi to internationalise will mount faster. Wensheng Peng, chief China economist at Barclays Capital, believes that market turmoil and the Wall Street crisis has changed the terms of a debate on the renminbi that has been brewing for years.
只是预测，如果明年中国赶超日本成为世界第二大经济体，那么促使人民币国际化的压力将更大。Wensheng Peng，Barclays银行的首席中国经济学家，相信，由于市场混乱额华尔街危机将改变已经酝酿了好多年的人民币争议的条件。
“The global financial crisis, and along with it increased concern from the Chinese perspective on the reliance of the global monetary system on the US dollar has brought to the fore the importance of increasing the use of the renminbi in international trade and finance,” he said.
他说“全球金融危机，和随着中国对于美元在在全球货币系统中信心的日益担忧，在不久的未来，在国际贸易和金融中使用人民币越发显得重要”
A consensus among policymakers has grown from the grudging acceptance that one of the fundamental reasons the country has fallen into the dollar trap is that China’s currency is not international and the global crisis has made the dollar less predictable.
政策制定者中的大多数勉强接受了这样一个基本道理，那就是中国掉进”美元圈套“是由于中国货币没有全球化，同时全球危机使得美元前途未卜。
Others believe that raw economic growth makes the globalisation of the renminbi inevitable. “If the history of sterling and the dollar’s ascendancies as international currencies are any guide, said Hongbin Qu, HSBC’s chief China economist, the internationalisation of the renminbi is “long overdue” because of China’s rising economic power relative to the limited use of the renminbi overseas.
其他少数人则认为自然的经济增长使得人民币国际化不可避免。恒生银行的首席中国经济学家说”如果英国货币和美元的作为国际性货币处于统治地位的历史是借鉴，“那么人民币国际化是“迟到了太久”，因为相对于中国日益增长的经济实力，在海外使用人民币太受限制了。
Most significant are the policy gambits in the past few months as the global financial crisis has given motive and opportunity for Beijing to test out renminbi internationalisation. China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Belarus and Argentina worth 650 billion renminbi (￡57 billion). Last month, China selected five mainland cities — accounting for 45 per cent of the country’s foreign trade — that can trade with Hong Kong and Macau in renminbi. The programme, said Mr Qu, could be rolled out to cover all of China’s trade with Asia except JapaN。
由于全球金融危机对北京试验人民币全球化提供了动力和机遇，在过去几个月，许多重要事件已成为政治开局。中国和韩国，马来西亚，印尼，白俄罗斯和阿根廷签署了价值6500亿人民币的（570亿英镑）双边货币互换协定。上月，中国挑选了5个大陆地区城市----占到国家外贸的45%----可以同香港和澳门用人民币来结算贸易。QU先生说，中国所有的贸易，计划将实施和除日本以外的亚洲国家（用人民币结算）。
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