【09.08.06 经济学人】台湾·大陆 —— 贸易促统一？
本帖最后由 vivicat 于 2009-8-14 19:20 编辑【中文标题】台湾·大陆 —— 贸易促统一？【原文标题】Taiwan and China ——Reunification by trade?【登载媒体】经济学人
【原文链接】http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14191252
【译者】Rok-Viv【翻译方式】人工
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载
【原文库链接】
Aug 6th 2009 | TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition
A plethora of free-trade deals is driving Taiwan closer to China
大量自由贸易协议正拉近台湾与中国大陆的关系
http://media.economist.com/images/20090808/D3209AS1.jpg
FREE-TRADE agreements (FTAs) are often contentious but rarely would one have as much strategic significance as that proposed between China and Taiwan. On July 29th Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, elected last year on a platform of liberalising business restrictions and easing military tensions with the mainland, said a China-Taiwan trade pact should be signed as soon as possible. The two sides have quietly concluded months of unofficial negotiations and Taiwan’s economy minister, Yiin Chii-ming, says he wants formal negotiations to start in October. The island is in a hurry.
自由贸易协议（FTAs）多有争议，然而却少有像中国大陆与台湾拟定的那样具有如此之大的战略意义。7月29日，去年当选的台湾领导人马英九（主张放宽两岸商贸限制及缓和两岸紧张的军事局面）认为，大陆与台湾间的贸易协议应尽早签署。数月以来的非正式谈判让双方在私底下达成了共识。台湾经济部长尹启铭期望双方能够在今年十月开始正式的商讨。可以看出台湾对此十分关切。
Mr Ma is willing to take the political risk of tying a self-ruled democratic island economically to its giant authoritarian neighbour because of the rest of the world’s craze for free-trade deals. Taiwan has diplomatic relations with 23 countries. Most nations recognise China and fear to sign FTAs with Taiwan lest they incur China’s wrath. Already, says Huang Chih-peng, the director general of Taiwan’s Bureau of Foreign Trade, the world’s 230-odd bilateral or multilateral trade pacts are harming the export-dependent island’s economy.
这种做法会使得民主自治的台湾面临经济上依赖一党专政的中国（大陆）的风险。然而，马英九却愿意冒这样的风险，原因就在于，世界其他各国和地区都在急切寻求自由贸易协议。台湾与世界二十三个国家建立了外交关系。但大多数国家都承认中国，同时也担心与台签订自由贸易协议会激怒中国。台湾经济部国际贸易局局长黄志鹏提到，世界230多项双边或多边贸易对出口依赖型的台湾经济构成了伤害。
Mr Ma is even more worried about what will happen next year when trade agreements between China and the Association of South-East Asian Nations—so-called ASEAN+1—take effect. Taiwan’s exports to China face tariffs ranging from 5% to 15% and its government fears that, unless they are lowered, the island will be left at a competitive disadvantage in the giant Chinese market. This disadvantage would greatly worsen if a planned ASEAN+3 were one day signed, embracing South Korea and Japan.
让马英九更为担心的是，中国与东盟间的贸易协议（即所谓的“东盟+1”）明年生效之时情况又会如何。台湾对大陆的出口关税在5%到15%之间。因此，台湾当局担心，除非降低关税，否则台湾在广阔的中国市场的竞争将处于不利局面。如果“东盟+3”计划签订，这种竞争的不利局面将进一步恶化。
Economic benefits, political costs
经济收益，政治代价
A think-tank commissioned by the government said the proposed pact could increase Taiwanese GDP by 1.65-1.72%—more if services and investment were included. In addition, it argued, the pact could increase foreign direct investment by $8.9 billion in seven years and create around 260,000 jobs (though other economists said this was too high). The president wants an outline agreement in place before ASEAN+1 comes into force, with the details worked out and implemented bit by bit after that. An incremental approach, officials say, is needed because an immediate FTA would be too disruptive to Taiwan’s economy.
由台湾当局委任的智库称指出，这项拟定的协议能让台湾GDP增长1.65%到1.72%。倘若算上服务及投资行业，这一增幅将会更大。此外，该协议还能促使外商直接投资在7年的时间里增加89亿美元，同时也将创造约26万个工作岗位。然而，有些经济学家认为这一预测过高。马英九则希望在“东盟+1”签署之前能与大陆达成框架性的共识，而对于更多的细节则可日后完善。台官员认为签订协议应采取循序渐进的方法，操之过急将有损台湾经济。
Disruptive is right, but not perhaps mainly to the economy. China still asserts that Taiwan is an integral part of the People’s Republic. Many Taiwanese, including the pro-independence opposition party, fear that the proposed accord is really a ploy by China to bring about unification by stealth. They also argue that once the pact is signed, there is no guarantee that China will not lean on members of other FTAs to keep Taiwan out anyway. In contrast, Mr Ma insists that the proposed pact would make it easier for Taiwan to sign free-trade accords with third parties.
损害是肯定的，但遭到主要损害的或许并不在经济方面。中国大陆始终坚持台湾是其不可分割的一部分。包括台独性质的反对党在内的许多台湾人都认为这是中国大陆暗中进行统一的手法而已。他们也认为，即便这一协议签订，也不能确保大陆不会依靠其他自由贸易协议来把台湾排挤出去。相反，马英九则坚持认为该协议将使台湾与第三方签订自由贸易协议变得更为容易。
“It is a suicidal policy that makes Taiwan locked into China,” says Huang Kun-huei, the chairman of the pro-independence Taiwan Solidarity Union. In a sign of the popular unease raised by the pact, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party, which has virtually no parliamentary clout, still managed to collect over 120,000 signatories to a petition asking the government for a referendum on it (though Taiwan’s high threshold for referendum participation means that such a thing may not get off the ground).
支持台独的台联主席黄昆辉认为这一无异于自杀的做法会让台湾受制于大陆。在野的民进党虽说在议会中并无实质性的影响力，但在要求政府对此事进行公投的请愿书上仍筹到超过12万的签名。由此可见，此事已在台湾民众中引起了不安（实际上，台湾对公投的高门槛又意味着民进党在公投方面并不能取得任何进展）。
In fact, dramatic political shifts seem unlikely in the short term. Mr Ma has promised that when the deal is negotiated, the wording will not compromise the island’s political stance. And China-watchers think the increasingly sophisticated government in Beijing is not likely to make heavy-handed political demands in case this rebounds on Mr Ma and he is voted out of office in 2012 (the Chinese much prefer him to the independence-minded opposition). Nevertheless, in the long run China hopes that economic interdependency and goodwill will eventually encourage the island to return to the fold. The trade pact will be a test of whether that hope can be fulfilled.
事实上，短期内台湾将不会出现戏剧性的政治变动。马英九已经承诺在协议谈判之时，台湾的政治立场不会向任何措辞妥协。大陆的观察家认为，出于对马英九2012年连任的考虑，日渐老练的北京政府不会采取高压政策。相比支持台独的反对党，大陆还是更偏爱马英九的。即便如此，大陆还是希望两岸经济互动及友好关系能够推动台湾的回归。而此次贸易协议也将检验大陆的这一愿景是否能够实现。
Rendered by Rock Hsu
AKA. Ｃho克latＥ 本帖最后由 Rok-Viv 于 2009-8-14 19:30 编辑
这里谢谢vivicat 格式上的编辑
我下次会注意的 贸易上中国要进一步加强对台湾经济要穴的控制，不能片面简单地给予支持。例如应该设法打入其资本市场，操纵他们的股票，与他们的媒体企业有更多共同利益，从而改变其舆论趋势。 台湾人认为自己富有，大陆人贫穷，回归也没什么好处
这些协议改变不了这种看法，只是对台湾开发大陆市场有益
再过20年，很怀疑台湾继续谈判的筹码还剩下什么，务实思想已经被政治搞的支离破碎 但是有一个问题，
大陆在台湾人眼里仅仅是生意伙伴 搁置争议，只谈贸易。 台湾人说搁置争议好啊 只要你们送钱就行了
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