【2009.9.14经济学人】 中美轮胎特保案：巴拉克·奥巴马的自由贸易信仰有多深？
本帖最后由 chwan 于 2009-9-16 10:46 编辑How strong is Barack Obama's belief in free trade?
巴拉克•奥巴马的自由贸易信仰有多深？
ALTHOUGH Barack Obama alarmed free traders last year with protectionist-sounding pronouncements on the campaign trail, such as one about the need to renegotiate NAFTA, optimists among them dismissed this as mere posturing designed to placate restive trade unions. Yet a decision by the White House to impose punitive tariffs (35% for the first year, falling by five percentage points a year, to 25% in the third year) on Chinese-made pneumatic tyres now raises serious doubts about Mr Obama’s commitment to free trade.
尽管巴拉克•奥巴马在去年的竞选中向自由贸易者发出了听起来具有贸易保护主义的宣言，诸如其中之一是要重新协商北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA），但是一些乐观人士宣称这仅是精心设计，并用来安慰倔强的贸易联盟的。然而，现在白宫签署的一项针对中国产橡胶轮胎的惩罚性关税（第一年35%，之后每年递减5%至第三年的25%）令人对奥巴马的自由贸易承诺产生了严重的怀疑。
The duties are to be imposed on September 26th under a part of American trade law known as “Section 421”. The American government argues that these tyres are being imported into America from China in “such increased quantities and under such conditions as to cause or threaten to cause market disruption to domestic producers” of competing tyres.
依据美国贸易法中的“421章”，该惩罚性关税将在9月26日实施。美国政府认为这些从中国出口到美国的橡胶轮胎“数量日益增加，在这中情况下，将导致或威胁导致生产同类产品的国内生产商的市场崩溃”。
America imported tyres worth $1.3 billion from China between January and the end of July this year. Under the terms of China’s accession to the WTO in 2001, countries have the right to impose tariffs in response to a “surge in imports” from China. But there is always scope for dispute about what constitutes enough of an export surge to justify the use of tariffs, and China has already notified the WTO of its intention to file a case against America. It has also said that it is considering the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on American exports of car parts and chicken meat.
今年1月至7月底，美国从中国进口了13亿美元的橡胶轮胎。根据2001年中国加入世贸组织的条款，国家有权施对来自中国的“倾销进口产品”施加关税。但是有多少足以构成倾销以证明施以关税是合理的仍然存在很大的争议空间，中国已经提交文件通告世界贸易组织其反对美国（征税）的立场。中国也表明真考虑对美国的汽车零部件和鸡肉开征惩罚性关税。
Poultry and tyres sound like small change in the context of the economic relationship between the two big economies. But Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University and a former head of the IMF’s China desk, argues that the American action and Chinese retaliation may presage “more protectionist measures to come from both sides”. He notes that China could retaliate much more broadly than by raising a few tariffs: it could, for example, supplement its implicit export subsidies, including an undervalued exchange rate, with more explicit measures to support its export industries and block imports. This could “easily ratchet up into a broader trade war and inflict economic damage on both countries”.
家禽和轮胎对听起来不会对两个经济大国之间的经济关系造成多大的变化。但是康奈尔大学贸易政策教授、国际货币基金组织中国办事处前负责人 埃斯万•佩撒认为美国的举动与中国的报复可能预示着“双方之间爆发出更多的贸易保护主义措施”。他指出中国的报复行为可能比增加一些关税更加广泛：例如，它可以对出口企业提供隐性的补贴，包括低估人民币汇率，运用更多的隐性措施来支持出口行业和抑制进口。这可能“很容易地引起广泛的贸易战并多两国造成经济损失”。
The decision to use Section 421 is a disturbing one. John Veroneau, a lawyer and a former deputy trade representative, points out that this particular rule “doesn't require any finding of unfair trade practice by China…Chinese tyre exporters were not found to be doing anything wrong or illegal.” This means that it is hard for the administration to pass off the decision as being about tougher enforcement of existing trade agreements, which has been the focus of Ron Kirk, the new American trade representative, since his appointment.
引用421条款的决定是一件令人烦扰的事。前贸易副代表约翰•维诺律师指出该特别条款“不要求对中国的非公平贸易开展任何调查……没有发现中国的轮胎出口商做错什么或有违法行为”。这意味着考虑到贸易协定的强制力的存在，行政部门难以通过惩罚性措施，这将是罗恩•苛刻自任命为贸易代表以来关注的问题。
Mr Obama’s decision also marks a clear break with recent American policy. His predecessor, George Bush, had four opportunities to take such a step against China, but in each case chose not to do so. Mr Veroneau, who worked on those cases, argues that “based on their negotiations with the Clinton Administration on Section 421, China expected this tool to be used, if ever, only in the rarest and most exceptional of cases”. So China’s pique is understandable, as are worries that this could lead to a slew of other American industries demanding protection against competition from Chinese imports.
奥巴马的决定也标志着近期美国政策的转变。他的前任乔治•布什曾有四次机会对中国采取此类惩罚性政策，但每一次他都没有选择这么做。时任贸易代表的维诺辩说“通过在与克林顿政府就421条款进行磋商，中国预测该措施即使得以运用，也是在那些非常罕见的并且可以预期到的案例里”。所以，中国气愤可以理解，正如我们担心的一样，这有可能导致许多美国其他的行业要求得到保护以对抗来自中国进口产品的竞争。
Simon Evenett, a trade economist at the University of St Gallen in Switzerland, argues that Mr Obama’s decision is a clear affirmation of the power of American labour unions in shaping its trade policy. It appears that Mr Obama is desperate to shore-up support from unions and the left of the Democratic Party for health-care reform—his most pressing domestic concern—and is prepared to risk repercussions on trade.
瑞士圣加伦大学贸易经济学家 西蒙•伊恩内特说奥巴马的决定是对美国劳动联盟形成其贸易政策的明确支持，奥巴马看起来要孤注一掷以获得劳联对民主党的医疗改革的支持——他最迫切关注的国内问题——准备在贸易问题上冒一次风险。
If so, heightened economic tensions between America and China are a heavy price to pay. Mr Prasad says that “an escalating trade war between these two large economies has the potential to disrupt the world trading system”. The China-America spat also comes soon before the leaders of the G20, the group of big rich and emerging economies, meet in Pittsburgh on September 24th. Global co-operation has been crucial amid efforts to encourage economic recovery. It would be a tragedy if it that were derailed by posturing over tyres and chicken.
如果是这样，那么中美两国不断升级的经济紧张将是其付出的一项沉重代价。佩撒说“这两个经济大国之间不断扩大的贸易战对世界贸易体系具有潜在的危害”。此次中美风波发生在即将召开的20国领导人会晤之前，富裕的大国和新型经济体集团将在9月24日的匹兹堡会晤。全球合作在应对经济复苏的各种努力中越来越重要。如果由于轮胎和家禽而是全球合作偏离了它应有的轨道，这将是一场悲剧。 好长啊！翻译辛苦了，占了沙发慢慢看 首次尝试翻译，大家多多指教。 我们要建立和谐世界。 我们要建立和谐世界。
考古 发表于 2009-9-16 12:44 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif]
hehe ,你是中国大学生吧 首次尝试翻译，大家多多指教。
chwan 发表于 2009-9-16 12:25 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
辛苦了。
如果注意下外媒的格式就更完美了。 ]
hehe ,你是中国大学生吧
連長 发表于 2009-9-16 13:14 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
您太不懂幽默了吧？？ 连长 终于换头像了~~不用每次进来就要躲你头像上面那4个大“包包”
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