日本时报：美国经济示弱的时候中国的影响力日益增强
【原文标题】China's clout grows as U.S. economy weakens【登载媒体】TheJapanTimes
【来源地址】http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20090128a2.html
【译者】荡漾
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，转载请注明译者及出处，谢谢！
【译文】
9/11后中国在反恐战争问题上站到了美国一边，中国领导人原本期待得到的回报是：或许美国将在“台湾问题”上做出一些让步。但当时的美国国务卿鲍威尔断然否定了该想法。
2005年中国海洋石油总公司提出收购美国石油公司优尼科，中国的海尔集团也瞄准了美国家电公司美泰克。这引起了激烈的反应，国会议员及其他的国家领导人尖锐批评中国，结果中国撤销了收购提议。2008年中国正准备举办奥运会的关头美国媒体及人权组织就西藏事务抨击中国。甚至有些美国官员鼓动抵制奥运会。如今形势显得大为不同。每一天都是多么不一样啊！更准确的表述是：一、两万亿美元！
美国正深陷因房地产及金融市场崩溃而导致的经济困境，事实上美国正遭遇经济萧条，这或许将是长期并深重的。
为了解决问题甚而避免经济衰退，美国需要资金来刺激经济。国会已拨出将近1万亿美元的款项，但人们说并不够。提供更多资金则意味着赤字和严重的通胀。问题是：钱从哪里来？
中国的表现却相当好。美林证券预计中国2009年经济增长率为8%。这与中国出口货物、服务增长了11%的2008年相比有所下降，但仍不错并比许多国家好很多。相比较之下美国2009年的经济增长预计下降2.8%、日本下降1.3%，欧盟下跌0.6%。中国不仅比美国表现好，还“拥有了大片美国”。按大多数人的说法美国欠中国大约1.5万亿美元的债，每个美国公民分摊6000美元。
中国领导人说一说套现中国手里握有的几乎五千亿美元的债券（有时中国会套现），美国的金融市场就要抖一抖。中国可能引发美国的衰退，当然中国并不想这么做。事实显而易见美国需要更多的钱，而中国坐拥将近2万亿美元的外汇储备，或许是唯一可以借钱给美国的债主。
在金钱意味着权力、权力意味着影响力的环境里，中国作为（今天的）债权国和未来更大的债权国显然占据优势。有理由说鉴于美国局势中国已经累积了影响力。
就在最近美国决定不允许（或者至少也可以表述为推迟做出决定）日本购买美下一代猛禽式喷气歼击机F-22。在没有事先通知日本的情况下美国与中国就朝鲜问题进行了对话。这两件事令日本及美国外交书呆子们很为吃惊。长期以来日本都被看作是美国最为重要的盟友。当然换个角度看美日关系仍很好。看来是中国引起了改变。
几个月前美国同意对台出售价值65亿美元的军事武器。有人会认为这将使中国烦心，事实上中国领导人的确迅速就此事表达了他们的不满。
不过事情并没有看起来那么严重。小布什早在2001年就承诺过台湾180亿美元的军备买卖。最近的协议只不过是在长期推迟之后重新拾起而已，而买卖数额更是大为减少。
最近美国已要求澳大利亚接收释放自关塔那摩湾的维吾尔族恐怖分子。考虑到这些被告可能会被折磨及处决，美国并未打算将他们送回中国，因此试图与澳大利亚达成接收协议。中国就此向澳大利亚施加压力，澳大利亚将不予接收，而美国也就一声不吭了。
奥巴马在大选期间曾向中国施压表示中国应允许人民币升值以帮助美国解决低迷的对华贸易逆差，中国做出回应，人民币是重估了，但是并非向上，而是向下。总部位于美国的知名组织人权观察近日发布了一份详细报告建议奥巴马应该做点事情来改善全球范围内的人权状况。有人认为此举是在对中国施加压力。新总统未对此建议做回应。
小布什政府办公室在就任的最后几个月里几乎只语不提中国在美国的间谍活动。中国一直威胁欧洲并于最近取消了一个重要的中欧峰会并表示由于法国总统萨科齐会见达赖喇嘛中国可能将重新考虑空客飞机订单。
欧洲对中国的压力表示屈服是不寻常的，但是它发生了。对美国来说同样是前所未有的，至少在处理方式上。美国的经济危机的确让中国获得了更多的影响力，中国也正运用着影响力。这是值得注意的变化。
注：作者John F. Copper系位于美国Memphis的Rhodes学院国际关系研究所Stanley J. Buckman的著名教授。
【原文】
By JOHN F. COPPER MEMPHIS, Tenn. —
After 9/11 when China sided with the United States in the war on terrorism, Chinese leaders expected a quid pro quo: Perhaps Washington might make some concessions on the "Taiwan issue." But then U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell emphatically dismissed this idea.
In 2005, the China National Offshore Oil Corporation made a bid to buy the American oil company Unocal. It also looked at Maytag. This created a furor and members of Congress and other national leaders sharply criticized China. China withdrew the offers. In 2008, the media and human rights groups in the U.S. assailed China over events in Tibet while China was getting ready to hold the Olympics. Some American officials even advocated boycotting the Olympic Games. The situation appears very different now. What a difference a day makes — or more accurately a trillion or two dollars!
The U.S. is in deep trouble economically caused by meltdowns in the housing and financial markets. In fact, America is looking recession in the face, perhaps a prolonged and deep one.
To fix this and perhaps even avoid a depression, the U.S. needs money to stimulate the economy. Congress has already appropriated nearly a trillion dollars, but many say this is not enough. Providing more means deficits and serious inflation. The question is: Where is the money to come from?
China is doing quite well. The projected growth in the Chinese economy for 2009, according to Merrill Lynch, is 8 percent. This is down from 2008 when China's output of goods and services grew 11 percent, still very good and much better than other countries. In comparison the 2009 projection for the U.S. economy is to contract by 2.8 percent, Japan to shrink by 1.3 percent and the European Union to fall by 0.6 percent. Not only is China doing better than the U.S., China already owns a lot of America. By most accounts the U.S. owes China something around $1.5 trillion or $6,000 per U.S. citizen.
When Chinese leaders talk about cashing in its almost one-half trillion in Treasury Bills, as they sometimes do, the financial markets in the U.S. shudder. Now China could stoke the U.S. recession, though it certainly does not want to do that. A more salient reality is that the U.S. needs more money, and China, which is sitting on nearly $2 trillion in foreign reserves, may be the only place to get it.
In such an environment money means power and power means influence; the advantage clearly goes to the creditor and the future bigger creditor — China. There is evidence that China has already gained clout with the U.S. because of this state of affairs.
Very recently, Washington decided against (or at least has delayed a decision) allowing Japan to buy the next generation of U.S. fighter planes — the F-22 Raptor. The U.S. has also engaged in some talks with China about North Korea without giving Tokyo advanced warning. Both were shocking to Japan and to many U.S. foreign policy wonks. It has long been said that Japan is America's most important ally. Certainly U.S.-Japan relations seem to be good otherwise. China seems to have made the difference.
A few months ago the U.S. agreed to allow Taiwan to buy $6.5 billion worth of arms from the U.S. One would think this would seem to upset China; indeed Chinese leaders in Beijing quickly expressed their displeasure over the matter.
But this may not really be what it appears. Bush promised Taiwan $18 billion-plus in arms back in 2001. The recent agreement is little more than putting that sale back on track after a long delay — but at a much lower amount.
Recently the U.S. had asked Australia to take some accused Uighur terrorists to be released from Guantanamo Bay. Washington did not want to send them back to China in view of the likelihood they would be tortured and executed, so tried to broker a deal with Australia. China put pressure on Australia, and the Uighurs will not go there. Washington has said nothing.
During the presidential election campaign Barack Obama pressed that China should revalue its currency upward to help the U.S. fix its yawning trade deficit with China. The response — China revalued, but downward. Human Rights Watch, a respected U.S.-based organization, recently issued a detailed report recommending things Obama needs to do to improve human rights conditions globally. One suggestion was to pressure China. The new president did not respond.
The Bush administration in its last months in office said almost nothing about Chinese spying in the U.S. China has long cowed Europe and recently canceled an important China-European Union meeting while suggesting it may reconsider a purchase of Airbus planes because the Dalai Lama visited France and met with President Nicolas Sarkozy.
It is unusual for Europe to bend to China's pressure, but it did. It is new for the U.S., too, at least in the ways it has. China indeed seems to have gained more wallop as a result of America's economic problems. And it is using it. This is a change worth noting.
John F. Copper is the Stanley J. Buckman Professor of International Studies at Rhodes College in Memphis, Tenn. ? 2008 OpinionAsia http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-138592-1-1.html
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