【2010.2.24悉尼先驱晨报】过多过快：中国经济膨胀之担忧
本帖最后由 qywqszwgl666 于 2010-3-1 21:36 编辑【原文标题】Too much, too fast: fears for China's bubbling boom【中文标题】过多过快：中国经济膨胀之担忧【登载媒体】悉尼先驱晨报【来源地址】http://www.smh.com.au/business/t ... -20100223-p0ox.html"【译者】 qywqszwgl666【翻译方式】 人工【声明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。"【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=225443&rpid=3284063&ordertype=0&page=1#pid3284063【译文】 【2010.2.24 Sydney Morning Herald】Too much, too fast: fears for China's bubbling boom【2010.2.24悉尼先驱晨报】过多过快：中国经济膨胀之担忧Has Beijing gone over the top with its economic stimulus? William Mellor reports. 北京的经济刺激方案搞过头了吗？William Mellor报道。
The township of Huaxi in the Yangtze River delta is a proud symbol of how Chinese communists embraced capitalism to lift 300 million people out of poverty during the past three decades.
在过去的三十年里，中国共产党接纳了资本主义从而使3亿人摆脱了贫困，而位于长江三角洲地区的华西村就是一个令人自豪的见证。
Its leaders took a farm community with bamboo huts and ox carts in the 1970s and transformed it into an industrial and commercial powerhouse where today many of its 30,000 residents live in mansions and most have a car. Income of 80,000 yuan ($13,000) a head - almost four times the national average - allows Huaxi to claim it is China's richest village.2 华西村的领导者将一个在二十世纪七十年代还存在着竹屋和牛车的农业社转变为一个工商业的重镇。今天这里的30000居民中，许多人居住在豪华的宅第并且多数人都拥有一辆汽车。人均收入达到80000元（13000美元）——几乎是全国平均水平的四倍，凭借这一点，华西村就可以自诩为中国最富有的村镇。
Huaxi is also emblematic of the country's construction and real estate boom. Communist Party officials there are building one of the world's 30 tallest buildings, a 2.5 billion yuan, 328-metre tower.
华西村也是中国房地产业蓬勃发展的典型标志。当地共产党官员正在这里兴建一座高328米，耗资25亿元的高楼，建成后它将成为世界上最高的30座摩天大楼之一。The revolving restaurant on top of the so-called New Village in the Sky offers sweeping views of paddy fields, fish ponds and orchards, Bloomberg Markets reports.4 z; n0 站在这座“空中华西村”顶楼的旋转餐厅，稻田，鱼塘和果园等景致尽收眼底。（《Bloomberg Markets》报道）Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, says China is overdoing it. "It does not make sense for China to build more empty buildings and add to capacities in industries where you already have overcapacity," said Mr Faber. "I think the Chinese economy will decelerate very substantially in 2010 and could even crash."" a4 |; M+ v; M
“中国太拼了”，《Gloom, Boom & Doom Report》的作者Marc Faber说道，“你建了那么多闲置着的房子，并且在产能已经过剩时还在增加产能，这很不明智，”“我看中国的经济会在2010年大幅度下滑甚至崩盘。”Huaxi has an even more ambitious project coming up: a 6 billion yuan, 538-metre skyscraper that would rank as the world's second tallest. The only loftier building is the new Burj Khalifa in Dubai.$ W$ k5 ^4 c# @% T0然而华西村接下来却还有更多宏伟的规划：一座538米，耗资60亿元的摩天大楼，建成后其高度将位居世界第二，比它还高的就只剩下刚建成的迪拜“哈利法塔”了。Such undertakings figured in the warning delivered in January by a hedge fund manager, Jim Chanos, that China is Dubai times a thousand. The costs of wasteful investments in empty offices and shopping malls and in underused infrastructure will weigh on China, Mr Chanos, who is president of New York-based Kynikos Associates, said in a speech at the London School of Economics. "We may find that that's what pops the Chinese bubble sooner rather than later."9 o' ]7 F! a& l( ~6 O$ q. }2 Y
一月份时由一位对冲基金管理人Jim Chanos发布的警告中，此类项目就赫然在列，而中国的此类项目在规模上要比迪拜大得多。闲置的办公楼和超级购物市场，以及未得到充分利用的基础设施，浪费在这些项目上的成本支出将给中国以沉重的负担。纽约Kynikos协会主席Chanos在伦敦经济学院的一次演讲中称，“我们很快可能会发现，导致中国经济泡沫破裂的原因就在于此”。China has defied the global recession of the past two years and remained the fastest-growing big economy. Gross domestic product soared 10.7 per cent in the fourth quarter. The government has provided 4 trillion yuan in stimulus spending and encouraged banks to lend a record 9.59 trillion yuan last year, trying to bridge the gap until demand for exports rebounds or domestic consumption takes off.) \& }% F$ g, p7 ~& H
中国在过去的两年里经受住了全球性的经济衰退，并且仍是发展最快的经济体。GDP在第四季度猛增了10.7%。在出口需求和国内消费回升之前，政府在去年拿出了4万亿用于刺激消费并鼓励银行完成了创纪录的9.59万亿的借贷，以此来填补流动性的不足。Last month, banks lent a further 1.39 trillion yuan - almost one-fifth of the target amount for the whole of 2010. Also in January, foreign direct investment climbed 7.8 per cent to $9 billion. Retail sales in last week's Lunar New Year holiday rose 17.2 per cent from the same period in 2009, the Ministry of Commerce said./ x5 U" V1 Z/ B9 Y9 |
上个月银行完成借贷1.39万亿元——几乎是2010年全年借贷指标的五分之一。同样是在一月，境外直接投资增长了7.8%达到90亿美元。据商务部表示，上周农历新年节假日期间，零售总额较去年同期增长了17.2%。While China's resilience has helped support the world economy, raising demand for energy and raw materials, the bursting of a bubble would have the opposite effect. Government efforts to wean the economy off its extraordinary support may upset markets. In January, the central government ordered banks to curb lending, which put China's sharemarket into reverse. In a sign of how dependent the world has become on China, stocks and currencies slumped in places such as Australia and Brazil that supply commodities to the country., c&虽然中国经济的回升向好带动了世界经济对于能源和原材料需求的上涨，然而一个泡沫破裂了，境况就会适得其反。中国政府为使经济摆脱对过度扶持的依赖所做出的努力，可能会使市场陷于动荡。在一月份时中央政府要求银行控制借贷的这一举措使中国股市应声下挫。相应的，像澳大利亚和巴西这样对中国输入商品的国家股市下跌，货币贬值，世界对中国的依赖由此可见一斑。
"If the Chinese economy decelerates or crashes, what you have is a disastrous environment for industrial commodities," said Mr Faber, at Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd.3 A( Y: m+ I8 y6 Q- V
“如果中国经济发展减缓或是崩盘，我们要面临的，将是工业产品处境的极度恶化，”香港Marc Faber有限责任公司的Faber表示。The stimulus tap that Beijing turned on has flowed to projects such as its 2 trillion yuan high-speed-rail network. The Beijing-Shanghai line has surpassed the Three Gorges Dam as the single most expensive engineering project in Chinese history. Some beneficiaries of the government efforts have ploughed their loans into real estate and stocks. Property prices across 70 cities jumped 9.5 per cent in January from a year earlier, according to official data.& a- t4 Q5 Q( |
北京打开的刺激经济的资金流已经流入到像高铁这样耗资达2万亿的项目里。京沪段高铁已经超过了三峡水利工程成为中国历史上投资最大的工程项目。而一些政府项目的受益者则已将他们获得的贷款大量投入到房地产和股市。根据官方数据，一月份期间70个城市的房地产价格较去年上涨了9.5%。Instead of concentrating on their core businesses, giant state-owned enterprises, or SOEs, have bet on real estate, says Zhang Xin, a former Goldman Sachs analyst who is chief executive of Soho China, the biggest property developer in Beijing's central business district. "All the SOEs are bidding the prices up to the sky," Mr Zhang told China International Business, in December. That is despite office vacancies in China's capital being at record highs.
前高盛集团分析员，现任北京中央商务区最大的房地产开发商SOHO中国区总裁的张鑫表示，一些大型国有企业，或是SOE（SOE：Spirit Of Enterprise。企业家精神公益组织下属中国青年创业探索项目——百度百科）也投身于房地产市场。“这些SOE机构将房地产价格炒上了天，”张鑫告诉《中国国际商务》时说道。尽管官方没有参与这次房地产投资，房地产价格仍创造了历史新高。 9 ]+ j( {; Y5 y& C: f: K5 n2 g
Mr Chanos, a short-seller who was early to warn about Enron, is one of a growing number of investors sounding the alarm. "Right now, the Chinese market is overheating," George Soros said in an interview on January 28.6 `, k. p" v. P# P$ z4 r
越来越多的投资人发出了警告，早前警告过安然公司的卖空者Chanos就是其中之一。“目前中国的市场过热了，”乔治·索罗斯在1月28日接受采访时说道。 8 x! ~; b# h8 K" D6 f
Local government officials have wasted stimulus funds by replacing infrastructure that was fine in the first place. State media complained in May 2009 that party chiefs in Jianyang, Sichuan province, decided to help boost the local economy by rebuilding a bridge that was in such good condition it had emerged unscathed a year earlier from the earthquake that killed 70,000 people. The so-called Bridge of Strength withstood a demolition crew that tried to blast it to pieces with dynamite, the China Daily reported.Another example Mr Chanos cited is the city of Ordos, where party officials have built an entire new CBD on the windswept grasslands of Inner Mongolia, 25 kilometres outside the existing city.
地方政府官员滥用这些刺激方案的资金，去重建那些起先状况良好的基础设施。在2009年5月，国家传媒控诉了四川省建阳当地中共高层，其为了提振当地经济，决定对一座经历了08年那次70000人罹难的地震后仍状况良好的桥梁进行重建。据《中国日报》报道，这座人们称之为“桥刚强”的桥梁还曾经受住了拆迁队的炸药爆破。Chanos还举了鄂尔多斯市的例子，在距离市区25公里的地方，当地中共官员在内蒙古狂风肆虐的大草原上兴建了一片崭新的中央商务区。
Mark Mobius, meanwhile, is sticking with China. The executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management is encouraged that the government is pulling back some of its extraordinary economic support. "We see the government's tightening of lending as a positive because it moderates the risk to some degree," says Mr Mobius.
其次同时，Mark Mobius也密切关注着中国。当中国政府正在撤减其过度的经济扶持时，这位坦普尔顿资产管理机构的执行主席感到鼓舞。“我们认为中国政府收紧借贷是有积极作用的，因为这在一定程度上降低了风险”。
Still, even he says investors have to be wary. He got rid of an investment in a Chinese food company after finding it was using funds to buy apartments instead of to process soybeans.9 y$ w0 Kw. ~' u9 R0 v
然而，即使是他也表示投资者要谨慎。当发现一家中国食品企业利用本该用于加工大豆的扶持资金购入房产后，他便撤回了在该公司的投资。 译者注：翻译有误的地方请anti-cnners批评指正。 中国的经济最终将被房地产泡沫摧毁，那么多空置的楼房根本就没人住 城市化进程加快，房屋到不担心没人住，但房价绝对是个问题。 在珠海的一些楼盘....大多都是空空的...全都是抄家 还有很多地方，很多人没有充分的市场化，太多是市场潜力根本没有挖掘出来，存在一定的泡沫是可以容忍的，甚至是必要的。一栋楼就可以买下一个小国家才叫变态。
泡沫破裂说现在很流行，很多国外的什么砖家不过是跟风而已，根本没什么主见。
当然泡沫也要防范，但不可矫枉过正。适当的干预房价有必要，增加人民的收入才是正道。
股市下跌很正常，市场有时就是太过敏感，杂波太多，不过这不就是波动产生的原因吗？
市场本身就是邪恶的，让市场保持一定的邪恶没什么错。 的确如此 城市化进程加快，房屋到不担心没人住，但房价绝对是个问题。
516265258 发表于 2010-3-2 08:38 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
是没人住，很简单的，晚上去市区的中高档楼盘数数亮着灯的窗户就知道到底有没有人住了
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