【10.06.26 英国卫报】为什么中国有理由担忧
本帖最后由 yqh 于 2010-7-6 20:24 编辑【原文标题】Why China has reason to worry
【中文标题】为什么中国有理由担忧
【登载媒体】卫报
【来源地址】http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jun/26/china-economy
【译者】 zwwwendy
【翻译方式】 人工
【声明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【原文库链接】http://bbs.m4.cn/thread-251140-1-1.html
If it wasn't so utterly predictable one would have to admire the symmetry. Having resisted pressure to make their child behave better, the parents of the errant offspring suddenly announce a week before the annual meeting of parents and teachers that they will fall into line. There is relief all round and, indeed, the child does do as the authorities and other parents want. Once the PTA meeting is over, however, the old game resumes.
如果不是一目了然，大家都会赞同下面两件事的相似性。在家长会前一星期，这些问题孩子的父母突然一致同意给孩子减压以便他们能表现良好。终于大家都松了一口气，这些孩子正如校方和家长所期待的那样表现得很好。很可惜，家长会一结束，一切又回到了老样子。
That looks rather like China's currency policy. Last week, the central bank in Beijing announced a "flexible" regime for the yuan with a currency basket in place of the peg to the dollar. The shift took place a week before the G20 summit, with the evident aim of sparing the Chinese leader, Hu Jintao, from criticism at that meeting. Though the Obama administration wants more, it saw the move as a valuable first step.
正如中国的货币政策。上星期，央行出台一个“灵活的”政策：人民币从与美元挂钩转变为与一篮子的货币挂钩。这个转变发生在G20峰会的前一周，目的是让中国领袖胡继涛在会议上免收苛责。尽管奥巴马政府期待会有更大的转变，也认为这第一步迈得很有意义。
The yuan duly rose on Monday, faltered a little in the next two days and then hit a new high on Thursday – just as the world leaders were heading for Canada. Diplomatic mission accomplished, it seemed.
星期一人民币开始适度增值，在接下来的两天又稍微攀升并在星期四达到顶峰，这个过程正赶上各国首脑前往加拿大。看起来外交使命是完成了。
Well, no. On Capitol Hill, legislators pressing for punitive duties on Chinese goods if Beijing does not undertake a serious currency appreciation continued to growl. Paul Krugman has opined about the "yuan run-around".
实际上，并非如此。如果中央不严肃的保证人民币升值，这些在美国国会总想迫使中国商品承担惩罚性责任的立法委员是不会就此罢休的。保罗.克鲁格曼也认为这是“人民币的借口”。
In Beijing, meanwhile, the authorities made it clear that they would move slowly and the central bank reminded anybody who bothered to read its lengthy document that flexibility meant the currency could do down as well as up.
与此同时，中国管理当局明确指出人民币会缓慢增值，央行也提醒不愿读冗长报告的人们“灵活性”是指货币可能增值也可能贬值。
On the other side of the world, the weakness of the euro posed another problem – the yuan has appreciated by some 18% against the common currency this year, threatening the export competitiveness of Chinese products in its biggest overseas market.
在欧盟各国，由于欧元的疲软，今年人民币相对升值了18个百分点，这威胁到了中国商品在其最大的海外市场上的出口竞争力。
Having argued for the past 18 months that the west lacks a coherent China policy and that Beijing was unlikely to undertake the increase in the value of its currency urged by successive US administrations, I may be accused of sticking to my guns while Hu Jintao and company embark on a new, less mercantilist, policy and ride to the rescue of western economies. The basic reason why I continue to think this unlikely is simple – China's own problems, which are considerably underestimated in the US and Europe.
正当胡锦涛和中国公司进行一个新的，不那么重商主义的政策并且参与拯救西方经济的时候，我似乎应该因为坚持自己的观点而受到控诉。在过去的一年半，我一直坚持认为中国没有给西方国家提供一个前后连贯的政策，还有在奥巴马政府催促的人民币升值问题上，中央也不大可能做出保证。我继续坚持自己看法最根本的原因是，中国自身的问题被美国和欧洲各国严重低估了。
We have become accustomed to the portrait of the People's Republic as the gorilla sitting in the global drawing room waiting to eat up every other nation's lunch. We have been fed straight-line forecasts showing how it will overtake the US economically some time in the next decade to dominate the world.
我们已经习惯想象的画面是中国像个大猩猩一样坐在全球的会客厅等着吃光所有国家的午餐。我们被灌输的很直接的预测显示，在未来十年的某一时刻，中国会在经济上战胜美国进而控制世界。
It is, we know, buying up huge tracts of raw materials in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. It holds some $2.4tn in foreign reserves. It bankrolls the US federal deficit and has become a vital link in the worldwide manufacturing and supply chain for Japanese companies as well as those in the west that depend on its low-cost factories for assembly of their goods (and which would be hit by a yuan appreciation, of course).
也就是说，买光非洲、中东和拉丁美洲大部分地区的原材料，控制$2.4tn的国外储备，为美联邦财政赤字提供资金支持，并且成为全球生产和供应链的极重要的一环。现在日本和西方的一些公司都依靠中国低成本的工厂来装配他们的产品（当然，如果人民币升值这会受到一定冲击）。
So it may seem perverse to argue that the leadership in Beijing is worried right now. But worried it is – to the point at which China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao, says his country "will make sure it maintains a sense of crisis". The China bulls might look at that sentence and wonder what Wen is talking about. Even if growth drops in the second half of this year it will still be at 8% or above. After a dip in April, the trade surplus ballooned again in May.
因此，争论中国管理当局正为此担忧的话题会让人觉得我比较固执。比较中肯的说，这个担忧的正如中国总理温家宝所言：国家“将确保维持一种危机感”。中国牛市可能会看着这句话寻思温家宝在讲什么。尽管中国经济增长在今年下半年有所下降，但依然突破了8%。经过了四月份的一个低谷，贸易顺差又在五月份开始膨胀。
The worry is that after three decades of amazing growth, China's model forged in the 1980s is running out time. The new leaders who will take over from Hu and prime minister Wen Jiabao in 2012 have shown awareness of that in a recently circulated internal document. Their roadmap to 2022, when there will be another leadership change, is sensible and would raise China to an economic level somewhere around that of the US. But if the destinations are clear, the road to them is filled with potholes.
Short term, say to 2012, Beijing faces a tricky task of combining tightening with expansion. It needs to mop up the flood of liquidity and slow down the hectic rise in property prices.
这个所谓的担忧是中国经过了三十年令人惊讶的成长，在上个世纪90年代树立的中国模式已经过时了。中国在2012年将接替胡锦涛和温家宝的领导班子最近在其内部流通的文件中已经注意到这个问题。他们明智的目标是到2022年，下下届领导班子掌权时，经济上和美国并驾齐驱。但如果坚持这个目标，道路是非常的曲折的。短期来看，即到2012年，中央面临把宽松的政策和紧缩的政策有机结合起来的任务。这就要求消除流动性过剩并且减缓货币贬值。
It has to bring the economy back from the runaway 12% growth reported early this year to a sustainable level of around 8% which would create sufficient jobs, keep the population happy and underpin the Communist party's claim to be the only force that can ensure material progress. It needs to rein-in industries whose excess output adds to the perennial problem of over-capacity, but without creating mass unemployment. It needs to guard against inflation and boost wages.
中央必须把年初报告的跑偏的12%的经济增长速度调整到可承受的8%左右的水平。8%的经济增长速度会产生充分就业，确保人民群众幸福，并且支持中国共产党的言论是确保物质进步的唯一力量。中央也需要驾驭那些由于生产过剩而导致持续多年的产能过剩问题却没有引起大规模失业的行业。中央还需要防止通膨胀并且提高人民工资。
Longer term, the challenges that have appeared over the last three decades get even more challenging – widening wealth disparities, air, land and water pollution, corruption,. land rights, labour movement, backward capital markets, freedom of expression, the relationship between Beijing and the provinces. Three decades on, China needs a new shake-up on the scale of that initiated by Deng.
从长期来看，贫富差距扩大，空气、土地和水污染，腐败，土地所有权，工人运动，发展迟缓的资本市场，言论自由，中央和地方的关系等一系列问题，经过了中国三十年的发展，变得更加具有挑战性。三十年过去了，中国需要像邓小平发起规模一样的新变革。
In those circumstances, the probability of seeing Hu and Wen agreeing to a significant appreciation of the currency which would hit exports and do little or nothing to address their longer-term concerns remains, to my mind, minimal. Wen has made it clear that China remains a fan of stimulus packages. The prospect of belt-tightening in a continent that accounts for 20% of Chinese trade is not one to warm his heart.
在那种情况下，我认为见证胡锦涛和温家宝同意人民币显著升值的可能性是很低的，因为这会对出口产生冲击，也无益于他们所强调的长期关注重点。温家宝指出中国也积极的开展一揽子刺激经济计划。在一个拥有中国贸易总量20%的大陆上让中国减少贸易额的希望显然不会让温家宝满意。
China is engaged in a long-term strategy to achieve what Hu has defined as a "moderately prosperous nation". With its currency statement, China has shown a readiness to engage in political shadow play. But it will continue to pursue that long-term objective, aware of how far it has gone but also of how much remains to be done.
中国长期的战略是成为被温家宝定义的“适度繁荣的国家”。通过其货币政策可以看出，中国有意参与到政治皮影戏中来。但它仍会坚持它的长期目标，关注它已经做到的和没做到的。
Western policymakers need to take that far more into account than they appear to do as they fight the fires of low growth, debt, banking weaknesses and volatile electorates.
西方政客们必须更多的把这个纳入考虑的范畴，而不是正如现在所做的同低增长率，负债，疲软的银行体系和反复无常的选民的斗争。 咱们国家的问题真不少。加油！ 英国从国家到媒体最近都很友善～ 西方国家总是指望着中国来解决他们自己产生的问题，把中国当成替罪羊无益他们自身问题的解决，只是一种头痛医脚的的做法，这只会让他们的问题更复杂。 很少能看到这么中肯的外文评论~
这篇文章将目前的中国经济剖析的很透彻 道路曲折，前途光明~~~
俺们要阔步向前行~~ 英国从国家到媒体最近都很友善～
athenstory 发表于 2010-7-6 18:00 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
英国是西方国家里最张开怀抱迎接中国资本的一个 好文,翻译辛苦了.... 中国长期的战略是成为被温家宝定义的“适度繁荣的国家”。比较有新意～～
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