【10.09.03 福布斯】中国交通堵塞背后的故事
【中文标题】中国交通堵塞背后的故事【原文标题】China's Traffic Jam Tells A Story
【登载媒体】福布斯
【原文作者】John Lee
【原文链接】http://www.forbes.com/2010/09/03/china-traffic-jam-opinions-contributors-john-lee.html
没完没了的交通堵塞让我们了解到中国的一些运作机制。
什么事情到了中国总会变成最大的：长城、天安门广场、东莞的华南MALL。现在，中国东北部京藏高速上没完没了的堵车毫无疑问也是世界上最大规模的交通堵塞。很多人或许都想窥探一些大堵车的场景，因为我们自己也时常成为其受害者，但是，中国的堵车现象有一些比满足好奇心更深层次的东西。它让我们可以了解到一些有关中国运作机制的或好或坏的事情。
京藏高速上的交通堵塞值得我们给予一些关注。堵塞发生在8月13日，车队从北京郊区一直延伸到内蒙古边境，长达100多公里。有时候，车辆每天仅前进400米。令人吃惊的是，交通管理部门认为，或许只有到9月17日新道路开通的时候，堵塞才能得到完全缓解。拥堵发生的两个星期之后，一些车辆在有机会的时候陆续分流到支线道路上，因此交通堵塞也扩散到其它相邻地区。
这个恐怖的堵车现象揭示了现代中国的哪些问题呢？让我先讲讲负面的问题，然后再说正面问题。
表面上看来，这似乎回应了全国各地都普遍存在的危机发展观点。例如，如果把中国各地的基础设施建设项目加总起来，相当于每个月修建一座澳大利亚的布里斯班城市。每年有2000万人——仅略少于澳大利亚的总人口数——从农村进入城市（意味着城市化进程按每年1.5％的速度在增长，这比我们一般情况下认为的城市化速度稍慢一些。）汽车销售量以每个月20％的速度在增长，8月份的数字比去年同期增长了55.27％。（然而，你要知道汽车燃油的消耗数量只比去年同期增长了3％到5％。这似乎在支持一些谣言所阐述的观点，即一些国有企业疯狂采购中国出产的新型汽车，把它们停在大仓库中任其破败，目的是提高消费指数。）
的确，中国也在积极修建高速公路。但是汽车越多，交通流量也就越大，尤其是一些建设施工为了应对交通流量的需求，就发生在高速公路上。交通拥堵似乎必然会发生了。
这当然可以解释交通堵塞的一大部分成因，但是，还有一些因素让高速公路上的拥堵变得异常严重。仔细看看哪些拥堵的照片，数量极多的大货车暴露了拥堵的原因。
中国的能源需求中有70％是煤炭资源，而其中大约一半是国内自采的煤炭，这其中绝大部分来自零散分布在中国内陆的小型、低效煤矿。多年以来，山西省（北京以西）内数千座小型、非法的煤矿为首都和周边地区提供了廉价的煤矿资源。矿主缺少对安全设施的投入，加上当地政府疏于安全管理，让这些煤矿成为世界上最危险的工作地点。据估计，每年在中国死于煤矿爆炸和坍塌事故的人数达2500人，当然，2009年这个数字下降到1600人。
过去几年里，当地居民成功地说服山西省政府关闭了2600多个煤矿中的1600个，其中大部分是非法的。然而，面对新的利益诱惑，很多商人与共产党基层官员勾结，在山西北部的内蒙古重新开发了数百个非法的（当然也是不安全的）煤矿。
由于北方没有设置检查站，因此来自内蒙古的数千辆运载非法煤炭的卡车不需要像他们原来在山西那样去贿赂当地官员。居住在京张高速旁边的居民看到，从北方支路进入京张高速公路的卡车数量急剧增长，就是这些卡车造成了目前蔓延数英里的交通堵塞。
但是，蔓延100公里的交通堵塞也显示出这个国家的巨大的经济驱动力量，以及新的——尽管是短暂的——经济机会。数千名街头小贩在路边摆开摊位，出售食品、饮料、衣服、书籍、杂志，甚至珠宝首饰给那些百无聊赖、神情沮丧、寸步难行的驾驶员——这绝对是个垄断市场。另外一些人还设立了临时休息处，让疲劳的驾驶员可以短暂睡眠。更有一些企业为司机提供“代驾”服务，按小时收费。
这其实是值得关注的一个现象，也就是中国人的一种自发的经营欲望，这种发生在成千上万个城市中的现象让中国在改革开放的第一个十年中（1979－1989）保持稳定的增长。在被允许随意使用自留地的情况下，数百万中小企业应运而生——这是一次皆大欢喜的革命，中国改革家邓小平认为这是“完全无计划、无意识的行为，却铺平了（中国）发展的道路”。从1979年开始的十年里，有80％的人群脱离贫困。由于经济增长是自下而上的来自数百万家庭，因此家庭收入与GDP保持同样的增长幅度。
然而，对国有经济体极为偏爱的国家主导模式，在1989年×××事件之后才重新浮出水面，中国共产党重新掌握了国家的经济命脉。从90年代开始，私有经济体收入增长落后于GDP增长3到4倍，而国有经济体的增长平均高过GDP增长50％。因此，在1979年到1989年，本土消费占GDP总量的60％，而在国家主导模式实施的二十年之后，这个比例下降到32％就毫不奇怪了。
你可以从一个交通堵塞事件中了解到很多东西。如果你明天早晨上班时被堵在半路，就想一想内蒙古的运煤卡车司机吧，他们要到9月中旬才能回家。
原文：
The on-again-off-again traffic jam gives us some insight into how China actually works today.
SYDNEY, Australia -- China has always been the place for the world’s biggest anything: the Great Wall, Tiananmen Square, the South China Mall in Dongguan, and now the on-again-off-again traffic jam along the Beijing-Zhangjiakou Highway in China’s north-east – undoubtedly the world’s biggest. Many of us are a little voyeuristic when it comes to major traffic jams because most of us have endured one at one time or another. But there is more to this traffic jam than meets the eye. It gives us some insight into a number of things that are good and bad about how China actually works today.
The traffic jam on the Beijing-Zhangjiakou Highway puts any congestion we have to shame. It began on August 13 and stretches over 100 kilometers from the outskirts of Beijing to the border of Inner Mongolia. At times, vehicles are moving along at about 400 meters each day. Amazingly, traffic authorities believe that the traffic jam will not decisively end until mid September 17 when new traffic lanes come into play. Unsurprisingly, almost a two weeks after it began, vehicles are spilling on to smaller feeder roads when they have a chance, meaning that the impasse is spreading to surrounding areas.
What does this monstrous traffic jam say about modern China? Let me first point out the bad and then the good.
On the face of it, this appears to be a story about the breakneck development that is taking place throughout the country. For example, adding together Chinese building construction throughout the whole country equates to building a city the size of Brisbane, Australia every month. Around 20 million new people--a number just less than Australia’s population--are moving from rural to urban areas every year (meaning that the rate of urbanization is increasingly by around 1.5% each year, which is far slower than we are sometimes led to believe.) And car sales are rising by around 20% month-on-month, with figures in August a massive 55.72% above the corresponding 2009 figure. (Bear in mind that car petrol usage is seemingly rising by only 3-5% during the corresponding period. This lends support to rumors that local state-owned-enterprises are aggressively purchasing new Chinese made cars and leaving them to languish in massive warehouses to pump up consumption figures.)
Yes, China is also busily building highways. But more cars means more traffic, especially when extensive construction work is taking place in parts of the highway in order to deal with rising driver demand. The traffic jam seems to fit into this narrative.
This is surely a large part of the explanation for the congestion. But there is something else that has made congestion on the highway just a little worse. Take a closer look at the pictures of the stalled vehicles. The unusual and inordinate number of trucks is a dead giveaway for locals.
China relies on coal for around 70% of its energy needs. About half of this is local coal, a large proportion being from small and inefficient mines that litter inland China. For many years, thousands of small and illegal coal mines in Shanxi province (west of Beijing) supplied the capital and surrounding towns with cheap coal. The lack of investment by mine owners in safety, compounded by the poor implementation of standards by local authorities, means these mines are the most dangerous in the world. It is estimated that around 2,500 people died in China from exploding or collapsing coal mines each year, although the number fell to 1600 in 2009.
Over the past couple of years, residents have successfully lobbied authorities in Shanxi province to close down around 1600 of Shanxi province’s 2600 coal mines, many of which were illegal. However, eyeing a new opportunity, many businessmen in collusion with local Chinese Communist Party officials have opened or reopened hundreds of illegal (and undoubtedly unsafe) mines in Inner Mongolia, which is situated directly to the north of Shanxi province.
Since there are no checkpoints when entering from the north, the thousands of trucks carrying illegal coal from Inner Mongolia have little need to spend further money bribing officials like they use to do with illegal Shanxi province coal. Residents living close to the Beijing-Zhangjiakou Highway have observed a massive increase in the number of trucks joining the freeway from the northern feeder roads into the Beijing-Zhangjiakou Highway--the same trucks that stretch for miles in the current traffic jam.
But the one hundred kilometer traffic jam also demonstrates the enormous entrepreneurial spirit in the country. Also sensing the emergence of a new--albeit transient--opportunity, thousands of street vendors have set up shop selling food, drinks, clothes, books and magazines, and even jewelry to bored, frustrated and static drivers--the perfect captive market. Others have even set up temporary sleeping depots to allow tired drivers to rest, and some enterprising businesses offer ‘relief drivers’ to vehicles on an hourly basis.
It is worth noting that this is the same spontaneous entrepreneurial spirit in the Chinese people – exercised in tens of thousands of towns - that drove Chinese growth in the first ten years of reform (1979-1989.) Given permission to use their allotted land as they wished, millions of small businesses spontaneously sprang up – a happy revolution that Chinese reformer Deng Xiaoping admitted was ‘completely unplanned, unforeseen but began (China’s) path toward growth.’ Eighty percent of the poverty reduction that has occurred in China since 1979 took place in the first ten years. Because growth was driven by millions of private households from the bottom-up, household incomes were rising at the same rate as GDP growth.
In contrast, China’s state-led model--with a heavy bias towards the state-controlled sector - only took flight after the 1989 Tiananmen protests when the Chinese Communist Party deliberately retook control of the economy. Since the 1990s, private household incomes have risen 3-4 times slower than GDP growth, while the state sector is experiencing growth that is 50% higher than national GDP growth on average. It is no wonder that from 1979-1989, domestic consumption was around 60% of GDP. Almost two decades after the introduction of the state-led model, it is now around 32% of GDP.
One can learn a lot from a traffic jam. And if you find yourself stuck on the way to work tomorrow, spare a thought for the Inner Mongolia coal truck driver who may not be home until mid-September. 看来问题还真不少 分析的到位呀！~ 文章还行，就是这段太扯淡了。
汽车销售量以每个月20％的速度在增长，8月份的数字比去年同期增长了55.27％。（然而，你要知道汽车燃油的消耗数量只比去年同期增长了3％到5％。这似乎在支持一些谣言所阐述的观点，即一些国有企业疯狂采购中国出产的新型汽车，把它们停在大仓库中任其破败，目的是提高消费指数。）
作者分的清什么叫汽车销量，什么叫汽车保有量吗。 本帖最后由 达到诬赖 于 2010-9-11 09:14 编辑
这似乎在支持一些谣言所阐述的观点，即一些国有企业疯狂采购中国出产的新型汽车，把它们停在大仓库中任其破败，目的是提高消费指数。
-----------------------------------哪个地方，谁的脑袋进水了！ 国企的发展并不是坏事，问题是很多国企丧失起码的企业道德标准与民争利，导致了国企的口碑普遍下降，进而引发民众与政府的对立情绪。而国企的过渡趋利又是由政府给他们下达的经济指标有关。这构成了一个恶性的反馈闭环。
强烈要求政府改变目前的发展模式和对各地政府、各级国企的考核体系，不以经济指标为唯一考核标准（至少不是最重要的考核标准），要把道德指标、环保指标、社会责任指标、民众拥护程度指标，等等，都加入到考核体系中。经济指标最多只能占50%！ 还是基础设施问题，中国对公路的需求远超过高铁
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