【10.11.24 四月专家】朝鲜“危机”：多极化世界中，安全等于核武器
【原文标题】North Korea "Crisis": In a Multipolar World, Security Equals Nukes【中文标题】朝鲜“危机”：多极化的世界中，安全等于核武器
【登载媒体】四月英文站
【来源地址】http://en.m4.cn/archives/1598.html
【译者】双籽宣言、黑霸王
【翻译方式】 人工
【声明】 本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译文】
（发自香港）当有目击者报告说，平壤又建起了新的铀浓缩设施，一场致命的炮火对决接着在朝鲜半岛展开，警钟已经敲响了。这些危机可能会让西方恐慌，毕竟这是来自于一个无端好斗的孤立的政权。较为冷静的评论家认为，与此相反，华盛顿和首尔已经决定好要，对平壤的在金正日之子领导下的无经验的最高政权做出反应了。
金正恩表示他不是胆怯、易于控制的人。当韩国军队在争议海域实行军事演习时，平壤发出了严厉警告。交火持续不断，韩国向属于朝鲜领海的延坪岛海域发射了数十发炮弹，朝鲜人民军立即采取坚决的军事措施反击韩国的这一军事挑衅。
当把焦点重新放到最具争议的核问题时，平壤的下一步可能是另一轮的弹道导弹发射和核试验爆炸。这场互相指责的游戏变得越来越危险。美国是否应该联合他的亚洲同盟来给这个“流氓政权”更严厉的惩罚呢，或是因为违背承诺而自我惩罚。
西方对平壤的误读
如果铀浓缩设施是一个如此隐蔽的秘密，那么朝鲜让曾研发美国核武器的洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室来为其建立这样一个研究地点就变得毫无意义。主要设计美国的核武器前首席实地视察是没有意义的。平壤投入了2000个离心机来展示它可以在没有西方帮助的情况下生产电力。
在已暂停的六方会谈中，朝鲜坚持建设qin水反应堆来生产电力发展经济。根据美国物理学家齐格弗里德赫克勒在2008年早些时候提交的报告，浓缩铀制造炸弹的危险性远远低于朝鲜制造钚武器。新的轻水反应堆的建设不是一个问题。
六方会谈涉及朝鲜、韩国、美国、中国、俄罗斯和日本，其目的在终止宁边核设施对钚的提取制造。为了让朝鲜废除宁边核设施，西方国家运载了一百万吨低等燃油代替其电力产出。
在近14个月内，因为美国国会以及首尔、日本的反对，美国对朝的油料运输被禁止了。六个月后，作为回应，朝鲜开始了第二次秘密核试验。随后，美国和韩国进行了一系列军演向朝鲜施加压力，这导致了“天安舰事件”的发生。
经济改革需要能源补给
近期美国总统奥巴马出访亚洲，他提到了朝鲜长期的能源短缺现象，并将此与韩国夜间的灯火通明相对比，称其为黑暗朝鲜。而总统先生却忽略了一点，是华盛顿的背信弃义引发了一切。
现状并非一片阴霾。朝鲜最高领导人金正日近期出访中国后采取了新的政策，以贫困百姓的利益为出发点刺激经济发展。而经济的发展依赖于电力的生产。朝鲜巨大的煤储备在日本占领时期被掠夺得几乎枯竭，现在只能依靠巨额投资来获取极少的收益。除了国内现有的铀矿，朝鲜在得不到国外燃料运输的情况下无法获取大规模的燃料资源。
因为国会的阻碍，白宫不能恢复对朝的燃料运输。六方会谈实际上只能搁浅了。
“邪恶轴心”还是新的威慑体系？
朝鲜正在开始新一轮的研发大规模杀伤性武器，我们有必要考虑朝鲜核试验的真实意图。朝鲜在2006年和2009年分别进行了试爆，并向世界证明了自己已成为了有核能力国家。不仅仅是朝鲜，以色列、印度和巴基斯坦都表现出来想被当成“大男孩”看待的愿望。
伊朗一旦开始研发弹头，这五个亡命之徒公然对抗核不扩散条约的时候就该到了。他们的行为将被看作是对美、俄、中、法、英这五大联合国安理会常任理事国的挑衅和侮辱。 现在拒绝五大常任理事国核保护伞的同盟国越来越少了，这引起了该五大国的担忧。
关于军备控制的磋商者都痴迷于博弈论，尤其是象棋。核战略家们关注与输赢，而且都喜欢成双地对抗：美俄在欧洲地区的对抗，中美在太平洋地区的对抗，中印在南亚的对抗。象棋本来是波斯的一种游戏，由其中衍生的二元思维正好适于伊朗现在的想法。下一场对抗可能就会出现在伊朗和以色列之间。
尽管对称，但二元的政略固来就不稳定。三元体系才是最稳定的威慑格局。二元格局中，敌对双方都会无止境地囤积武器装备。比如在冷战达到最高峰的时候，先前的战时同盟-苏联和美国向对方挥舞着70，000多枚核弹头，这是两个现武器储备的三倍。
法国的戴高乐将军深知背信的根源，于是法国声明自己是第三个拥有核武器的国家，以此结束了双头垄断的局面。从1958年起，“核威慑力”开始致力于防止莫斯科和华盛顿削减对欧洲的经费，并默许美苏的相互不信任来毁灭世界。这种不确定性来源于第三方的介入，因为它可以袭击任一方，或者把陷入争端的双方拉开。
1964年，毛泽东在罗布泊展开了中国的第一次核试爆，以此介入美苏僵局。由此以后，美苏引发了核产量的飙升。
戴高乐将军提出了三角战略关系，而毛泽东践行了这一格局。毛不是通过争取极权而是通过由弱国叫板强国带来的威慑力，平衡了美苏僵局带来的恐惧。
现在，核扩散取决于弱国的劝阻。新德里的武器储备足以匹敌北京的军械库，而巴基斯坦为了生存正在筹备能与印度对抗的核项目。三角战略在阿富汗战争和对克什米尔的争夺中正在被残酷地测验。
为了对抗以色列地区对超过80枚核弹头的垄断，伊朗必须遵循象棋和威慑的逻辑全面派出士兵。然而近期的配对把玩家之一阿拉伯踢出了游戏。因此埃及或者叙利亚将不可避免的会进行核试验，以此在中东地区创造出三元格局。
核风弹雨
朝鲜的情况是有所不同的，因为平壤在试图把新的策略层强加在现有的中美俄太平洋三角格局上。对于朝鲜离心分离机的报道，经过了19年的失误，韩国政府还是过早提出了对战术性质的核武器的重新启用。经过近日的朝韩炮轰，首尔方面开始收缩自己的威胁。
朝鲜半岛无核化的幻影已经破灭了，东亚的核三角正在召唤着日本。尽管亚洲国家将提出强烈反对，日本可能会马上走出美国的核保护伞然后投入核风弹雨之中，就像特拉维夫和德黑兰曾经做过的那样。超级大国的时代已经结束了，所以新崛起的多边世界必须为自身安全而建立新的反核恐怖体系。
【原文】
HONG KONG—Alarm bells are ringing with an eyewitness report of Pyongyang's new uranium enrichment facility and then a lethal artillery duel on the Korean Peninsula. These crises may appear to the panicked West as unwarranted belligerence from an isolated regime. A calmer perspective shows that, to the contrary, Washington and Seoul have been turning up the heat on Pyongyang's new military leadership under the inexperienced Kim Jong-un, son of supreme leader Kim Jong-il.
Kim the younger has shown convincingly that he's no timid pushover. When the South Korean military conducted a live-fire exercise in disputed waters, Pyongyang issued a stern warning. The firing continued unabated, and so the North took out several buildings on Yeongpyeong Island, located along the maritime defense perimeter where the corvette Cheonan sank in March.
When it refocuses on the newest nuclear controversy, Pyongyang's next step could be another round of ballistic missile firings and a nuclear test blast. The blame game is becoming dangerous. Should the United States and its East Asian allies be coming up with harsher punishments for that rogue regime or flogging themselves for reneging on promises to Pyongyang?
The West Misreads Pyongyang
If the enrichment facility is such a deep dark secret, it made absolutely no sense for the North Koreans to host a site inspection by a former chief of Los Alamos National Lab, which designs America's nuclear weapons. Pyongyang put 2,000 centrifuges on display to show it can produce electricity with or without Western cooperation.
Throughout the now-suspended six-party talks, North Korea insisted on building light-water reactors to produce electricity for its economy. The possibility of a bomb made of enriched uranium constitutes a far lesser threat than the North's work on plutonium weapons, according to a report by the same U.S. physicist, Siegfried Heckler, after an earlier visit in 2008. The construction of new light-water reactors was not at issue.
The goal of the six-party talks between the two Koreas, the United States, China, Russia and Japan was to cease plutonium reprocessing at the Yongbyon nuclear facility. The deal to dismantle Yongbyon hinged on replacing its electricity output with Western shipments of 1 million tons of low-grade fuel oil.
Within 14 months, American oil shipments were halted as the White House conceded to opposition in Congress as well as from Seoul and Tokyo. Six months later, Pyongyang responded with its second underground nuclear test. The United States and South Korea then stepped up pressure with a series of offshore naval exercises, which resulted in the sinking of the Cheonan.
Economic Reform Requires Energy
On his recent Asian tour, President Barack Obama referred to the chronic power outages in North Korea with his remark on the "darkness over the North" compared with the nighttime brightness of South Korea. The president neglected to mention that Washington's bad faith had turned out the lights.
The present situation isn't entirely gloomy. Following a recent visit to China, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il adopted a policy aimed at spurring its economy for the benefit of an impoverished population. Economic growth relies on power generation. The Hermit Kingdom's once formidable coal reserves were practically exhausted during the Japanese occupation and would now require a huge investment for little return. Deprived of oil shipments, North Korea has no sizable fuel resources other than the uranium ore within its borders.
Hamstrung by a hostile incoming Congress, the White House cannot conceivably resume oil shipments. The six-party talks are therefore effectively dead.
“Axis of Evil” or New Deterrence Architecture?
Before launching another war over weapons of mass destruction, it is worth considering North Korea's nuclear intentions. The Democratic People's Republic of Korea conducted test blasts in 2006 and 2009 in a bid for international recognition as a nuclear-weapon state. The DPRK is not alone in wanting to be treated like a big boy. Israel, India and Pakistan are also declared states.
If and when Iran constructs a warhead, the five "outlaws" will have gutted the Non-nuclear Proliferation Treaty. Their challenge is taken as an affront by the nuclear club of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain, which are dismayed that lesser allies are rejecting their nuclear umbrellas.
Arms-control negotiators are students of game theory, particularly chess. Fixated on winning or losing, nuclear strategists suffer a habit of thinking in pairs: the United States vs. Russia in Europe, the United States vs. China in the Pacific, and China vs. India in South Asia. Dualistic thinking also fits the Iranian mindset since chess was originally a Persian game. The next contest promises to be Iran vs. Israel.
Despite its symmetry, the strategic couplet is inherently unstable. The triplet —not twins— has proven to be the more stable configuration for deterrence. Left to each other, a jealous nuclear couple will endlessly amass stockpiles in an arms race. At the height of the Cold War, former wartime allies Soviet Union and the United States brandished 70,000 nuclear warheads at each other, about three times their current stockpiles.
General Charles De Gaulle, a Frenchman who understood infidelity and its roots in pride, ended the superpower duopoly with France's declaration as the third nuclear state. Initiated in 1958, the "force de frappe" (strike force) served to warn Moscow and Washington against cutting a deal at Europe's expense or, worse, allowing their mutual distrust to destroy the world. The uncertainty caused by an interloper, a third party that could attack in either direction, pulled the squabbling couple back from the brink of mutual suicide.
Mao Zedong intruded into the Soviet-American standoff in Asia by ordering the first Chinese nuclear blast at Lop Nur in 1964. Thus, the "original sin" of the nuclear couple spawned proliferation, then and now.
Triangular strategic relationships pioneered by De Gaulle and Mao created a balance of fear not through striving for absolute power but with what the French leader called "dissuasion du faible au fort" or deterrence by the weak against the strong.
Dissuasion by the weak is driving nuclear proliferation today. New Delhi counters Beijing's arsenal and Pakistan, for its own survival, pursues a nuclear program against India. This strategic triangle has withstood the brutal tests of the Afghan War and the Battle of Kargil in divided Kashmir.
To counter Israel's regional monopoly of 80-plus nuclear warheads, Iran must by the logic of chess and deterrence move its own knight across the board. The near-term pairing, however, leaves another player out of the game—the Arab bloc. Therefore Egypt or Syria will inevitably go nuclear to create a trinity of dissuasion in the Middle East.
Into the Hard Rain
The Korean situation differs somewhat because Pyongyang is superimposing a new strategic layer atop the existing Pacific triangle of China, Russia and the United States. In reaction to the centrifuge report, Seoul jumped the gun by calling for the reintroduction of tactical nuclear weapons on its territory after a lapse of 19 years. After the recent artillery exchange, Seoul retracted its threat.
As the mirage of a non-nuclear Korean Peninsula dissipates, the prospect of an East Asian nuclear triangle beckons Japan. Though Asians will voice strong objections, Tokyo may soon have to walk out from under the American nuclear umbrella and into the hard rain, just as Tel Aviv and Tehran have done. The superpower era is over, and so a multipolar world for its own security must create a new architecture of nuclear terror. Q76)Q76) 西方现在想用日本核武装化来施压中国，让中国施压朝鲜放弃核武器。
如果不是美国对朝鲜的敌视政策，朝鲜也不会发展核武器以求自保 谁来宣传一下，这个啥子媒体？是咱们的英文版吗 自己翻自己的？哇靠o3O147)
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