【11.03.06 新闻周刊】没有女人的男人 － 亚洲单身一代的阴影
【中文标题】没有女人的男人 － 亚洲单身一代的阴影【原文标题】Men Without Women - The ominous rise of Asia’s bachelor generation
【登载媒体】新闻周刊
【原文作者】Niall Ferguson
【原文链接】http://www.newsweek.com/2011/03/06/men-without-women.html
中国，富丽小学的孩子们在玩耍。
1927年，海明威出版了一本短篇故事集，名为《没有女人的男人》。将近一个世纪之后的今天，这本书揭示了人类性别不均衡的窘境。
根据联合国提供的数据，地球上的男性数量要比女性数量多很多。性别差异在亚洲尤其明显，那里的男性数量比女性数量多出1亿。在女性多于男性的西方世界，这似乎是个难以接受的现实，因为在其它因素完全相同的情况下，女性在任何一个年龄段的死亡率都低于男性。诺贝尔奖得主、经济学家Amartya Sen把这种现象叫做亚洲神秘“失踪的女性”。
从经济学角度来看，这种神秘性可以得到部分的解释。在亚洲很多国家中，男孩比女孩得到了更好的照顾，因为她们在经济上出于劣势，女性一般从事的家庭工作相比于男性从事的有经济收入的工作更加不重要。而且，早婚和生育控制两种因素的结合让女性要承担怀多胞胎的风险。
当Sen第一次计算失踪女性的数量的时候——指的是如果没有选择性堕胎、杀婴和性别歧视可以存活下来的女性——他得到的数字是1亿。今天，这个数字肯定会更高。亚洲国家的生活水平有了大幅度的提升，性别的差异却更大了。主要原因在于传统文化中对儿子的青睐胜过女儿，才导致了选择性流产女性胎儿，超声波扫描和对法律的置之不理让这种行为可以得逞。美国的女权人士Mary Anne Warren称这种行为是“性别屠杀”。早先在印度西北地区流行的这种恶名昭彰的行为，现在已经延伸到了世界上人口最密集的国家：中国。
根据美国企业研究所的统计专家Nicholas Eberstadt提供的数据，中国今天4岁以下的人群中，男女性别的比例是123:100，比50年前106:100的比例高出很多。在江西、广东、海南和安徽省，男孩数量比女孩数量多30％以上。这意味着，在这些孩子成年之后，他们会在一个很长的时期里无法找到配偶。据中国社会科学院预计，五分之一的青年男子要过单身生活。在20岁到39岁这个年龄段中，男性比女性多2200万人。想想吧，有10个像休斯敦这样的城市中全是年轻的男人。
留给经济学家的问题是，如此大量过剩的年轻男性会造成什么影响呢？历史提供了一个令人不安的答案。Gunnar Heinsohn认为，欧洲帝国在16世纪后的扩张实际上就是男性“青年突增”的结果，日本帝国在1914年后的扩张也是类似的青年突增所引发的。冷战时期，正是那些青年突增的国家——阿尔及利亚、萨尔瓦多、黎巴嫩——发生了最惨烈的内战和革命。Heinsohn还把最近伊斯兰极端势力有所抬头的国家，包括阿富汗、伊拉克和巴基斯坦与伊斯兰青年突增的现象结合在一起。政治科学家Valerie Hudson和Andrea den Boer警告，中国和印度有可能是下一个雄性激素过盛的国家。
这是一个可怕的联想。记住，海明威《没有女人的男人》中的大部分故事都是有关暴力的，他们中有歹徒、打手和伤兵，最著名的一篇故事题目就叫《杀手》。
或许，亚洲这一代没有女人的男人将为他们无可避免的失意找到一些没有危害的发泄途径，比如体育运动或者电子游戏。但是我很怀疑。无论这些单身一代是否会成为本土不安定因素的来源，就像巴西式的犯罪或者阿拉伯式的革命，还是像欧洲的先例那样（译者注：指16世纪的扩张），他们和他们的雄性激素都必将传输到海外。如今的亚洲已经彰显出足够尖锐的民族主义情绪，我们不要吃惊于这种情绪在下一代身上，以军国主义，甚至帝国主义的方式宣泄出来。看好你的女儿吧。
评论：
Skyblue Kelt：
从另一个角度来看，当一个适龄年轻女性可以选择4到5个年轻男性作为配偶时，她会怎样选择？当然是最有潜力的男性，这些男性可以提供给她和他们的孩子长远、舒适的生活、稳定、和平的家庭环境。尽管我们无法保证年轻的女性是最佳配偶，但是我们几乎可以肯定，目前结婚的这一代人，以及在未来30年结婚的一代人家中的父亲都是最优秀的。因此，这些家庭中的孩子也是最优秀的。如果与西方的同龄人做比较，中国的孩子必将会在各个方面胜出。中国和印度的那些懦夫和胆小鬼应当忧虑他们无可避免的下一代的命运。隐藏在肤浅的表面下的深层次因素对西方人的威胁是更大的。
mark wilk：
相比与青年激增，中国当今社会更大的问题在于整体老化。
Hostile Knowledge：
一妻多夫制吧……
Mime Wonder：
气得我都说不出话了，别再胡说八道了！妖魔化中国，让其承担西方问题的责任似乎是一种时尚。他们害怕中国人娶自己的女儿，种族主义分子！！！干脆把曾经被废除的法律再恢复好了，禁止跨种族通婚？等等，我想他们说的仅仅是中国男人。
Archie Angel：
不，事实让你难过，所以你就牵强附会地指责“种族主义”，这才应当是我们给予回应的问题。具有讽刺意味的是，一些人拒绝吸取历史的教训，所以现在才在遭受一些他们本应躲开的痛苦。可是你和法国人不一样，你很幸运，你可以舒服地依偎在家中，因为你的国家有一群战士，他们随时准备对抗企图破坏你幸福生活的入侵者。
Fred G：
Archie Angel，说的好。Mime Wonder的长篇大论就像是2008年大选时的口号“老师，老师，他是种族主义者！”，我不知道西方女人有什么好害怕的，反正她们中的大部分都不想结婚，也不想要小孩。19世纪的时候，很多美国富有的女性继承人成群结队地嫁给英国穷困潦倒的所谓上层人士，我不确定这种现象会不会再次发生。或许，我们还会看到亚洲的同性婚姻呈上升趋势，如果这些男人足够开放的话。更令人不安的是，卖淫和色情旅游业是否会更兴旺？中国在发布计划生育政策的时候应该没有预见到超声波影像技术的发展。当然，中国这么做是有原因的，尽管政策过于偏激，但毕竟缓解了饥荒的威胁。但是，就像所有社会项目一样，未预料到的后果是相当严重的。
Marc Porter：
Niall，你最终的结论让我很震惊。我们应当主动把女儿献给他们，而不是看好。这会让东西方更加团结。西方应当充分运用更多的东方人来传达其政治倾向。
John Arnold：
黄祸！！！
Lis Schubert：
太平天国起义，发生于1851年到1867年的内战，有数千万人丧生。它发生的时机就是类似性别不平衡的年代。历史说明了一切。
Alan Auyeung：
“看好你的女儿”？这是什么话，1882年的黄祸粗话吗？成群结队的野蛮蒙古人对着白人女性把牙齿咬得格格响？真是一篇可耻的文章。
Frank：
旧金山已经是这个样子了！生活嘛。
pashley1411：
你应当知道，这种性别不平衡的原因就是农村地区的独生子女政策。政府的政策诱导人们严密关注自己唯一的后代，超声波设备为此提供了便利，流产女性胎儿因此才越来越多。
这并不意味着战争，现代战争不是靠人，是靠技术。
这意味着会出现越来越多的“失意”男人，就像日本和美国一样，男人传统上养家糊口的职能被淡化。日本和美国就有很多失意的男人，因为在消费观念和职业性质的影响下，女性逐渐脱离了养育孩子的职能，经济制度也让男人越来越难以获取养家的经济来源。
Martin Smith：
我认为对于那些面临问题的国家，可行的方法是从国外引进新娘。首先从亚洲更贫穷的地区引进，但是供应量不会那么大，而且还会造成当地女性数量的减少。所以就会逐渐转向世界上更加贫穷的地区，比如非洲的撒哈拉地区。亚洲人口比非洲多得多，所以问题就会扩大，非洲的男人怎么办？
Ted Vahan：
有意思，总统和纽约时报总是和我们说中国有多么好。可是我从未找到中国的哪件事情我愿意让其发生在自己身边——性别屠杀、大面积的环境灾难、无力救助受害者、剥削工人、缺少自由等等。
Mark Brasher：
这个问题有几个解决方法。拿我熟悉的印度来举例，一妻多夫制（一个女人有两个丈夫）相当盛行，大多数是社会底层的兄弟共用一个妻子。另外，老夫少妻也是一个选择，一般是富裕的城市居民回到家乡娶妻。在“婚姻市场”的角逐中败下阵来的一般都是低层、贫穷、未受教育的人，他们不是造反和形成帝国主义的材料，他们仅仅是牺牲品、穷鬼和没希望的家伙。
Cashfreezy：
文章中有关性别失衡导致“恐怖”后果的观点仅仅是讽刺性的。卡塔尔男性人口的数量是女性人口的3.5倍，怎么没听说有暴力事件的发生？
Dory Rama：
我似乎感觉到白种男人在担心他们的白种女人了，哈哈！没办法呀，你们的后代要染上中国基因了。
John English：
说句题外话，我觉得Mary Anne Warren把“性别”和“屠杀”连在一起很搞笑。她不是一直在强调胎儿从道德意义上讲不是一个人吗？她不是一直在支持有需求的堕胎权力吗？
Justin Koenig：
我对那些说一件事与另一件事“有关系”的记者实在不感冒。这太不严谨了，我要看到更多的证据。你不能说历史学家发现了某种趋势，然后就得出什么结论。而且，就像其中一条评论所指出的，卡塔尔的男人比女人多得更多。阿联酋也是一样，迪拜人口的77％是男性。
原文：
Children play at a primary school in Fuli, China.
In 1927, Ernest Hemingway published a collection of short stories titled Men Without Women. Today, less than a century later, it sums up the predicament of a rising proportion of mankind.
According to the United Nations, there are far more men than women on the planet. The gender gap is especially pronounced in Asia, where there are 100 million more guys than girls. This may come as a surprise to people in the Western world, where women outnumber men because—other things being equal—the mortality rate for women is lower than for men in all age groups. Nobel Prize–winning economist Amartya Sen calls it the mystery of Asia’s “missing women.”
The mystery is partly explicable in terms of economics. In many Asian societies, girls are less well looked after than boys because they are economically undervalued. The kind of domestic work they typically do is seen as less important than paid work done by men. And, of course, early marriage and minimal birth control together expose them to the risks of multiple pregnancies.
When Sen first added up the missing women—women who would exist today if it were not for selective abortion, infanticide, and economic discrimination—he put the number at 100 million. It is surely higher now. For, even as living standards in Asian countries have soared, the gender gap has widened. That’s because a cultural preference for sons over daughters leads to selective abortion of female fetuses, a practice made possible by ultrasound scanning, and engaged in despite legal prohibitions. The American feminist Mary Anne Warren called it “gendercide.” Notoriously common in northwestern India, it’s also rampant in the world’s most populous country: China.
In China today, according to American Enterprise Institute demographer Nicholas Eberstadt, there are about 123 male children for every 100 females up to the age of 4, a far higher imbalance than 50 years ago, when the figure was 106. In Jiangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and Anhui provinces, baby boys outnumber baby girls by 30 percent or more. This means that by the time today’s Chinese newborns reach adulthood, there will be a chronic shortage of potential spouses. According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, one in five young men will be brideless. Within the age group 20 to 39, there will be 22 million more men than women. Imagine 10 cities the size of Houston populated exclusively by young males.
The question left open by economists is what the consequences will be of such a large surplus of young men. History offers a disquieting answer. According to the German scholar Gunnar Heinsohn, European imperial expansion after 1500 was the result of a male “youth bulge.” Japan’s imperial expansion after 1914 was the result of a similar youth bulge, Heinsohn argues. During the Cold War, it was youth-bulge countries—Algeria, El Salvador, and Lebanon—that saw the worst civil wars and revolutions. Heinsohn has also linked the recent rise of Islamist extremism in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan to an Islamic youth bulge. Political scientists Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer warn that China and India could be the next countries to overdose on testosterone.
That has scary implications. Remember, most of Hemingway’s stories in Men Without Women are about violence. They feature gangsters, bullfighters, and wounded soldiers. The most famous story is called simply “The Killers.”
It may be that the coming generation of Asian men without women will find harmless outlets for their inevitable frustrations, like team sports or videogames. But I doubt it. Either this bachelor generation will be a source of domestic instability, whether Brazilian-style crime or Arab-style revolution—or, as happened in Europe, they and their testosterone will be exported. There’s already enough shrill nationalism in Asia as it is. Don’t be surprised if, in the next generation, it takes the form of macho militarism and even imperialism. Lock up your daughters.
Skyblue Kelt
On the other hand. When a young woman of marriageable age has a choice of four or five young men as her husband, which man will she choose? The best potential mate, naturally, the suitor who can provide her with the best odds of comfortable long-term support for her and her children, excellent children, with the best odds of long-term success as adults, a stable, peaceful home environment, and so on. While there is no guarantee the young women would be the best possible choice as a mate, it is virtually certain that the current generation getting married now, and the next generation due to be married over the going 30 years, will be families with superior fathers. Thus, the children born of these families will be superior children. When it comes to comparison with the West, two strongly superior generations of young, obviously superior to Westerners of their own age, in every category of comparison possible. Weaklings and cowards terrified of competition from the Chinese and Indians should worry more about the second demographic inevitability than the obvious first impression. What is under the surface is far more dangerous to the West than the shallow and superficial.
mark wilk
One major difference with today's China, as opposed to earlier youth bulges, is that the society is rapidly aging as whole.
Hostile Knowledge
Polyandry at your service...
Mime Wonder
Running out of ideas to write, eh Niall? Stop scraping the bottom of the barrel.
It's fashionable to demonize China for all the West's problems.
Their fear of Chinese men marrying their daughters. RACISM!!!
Why don't they just bring back law i.e. prohibition of inter racial marriage?
Wait, I think they only target Chinese men.
Archie Angel
@mime blunder: No, it's fashionable to respond to every truth which makes you uncomfortable with a tired, intellectually dishonest accusation of "racism." It's furthermore ironic how those who refuse to acknowledge the lessons of the past are often condemned to suffer future horrors which could otherwise be avoided. Unlike the French, however, you are lucky in that you can keep your head deep inside your rectum in the warm comfort that your society has a class of warriors ready to defend you and your fellow sheep from others who would willingly destroy you.
Fred G
Way to go, Archie Angel. Mime Wonder's screed was right out of the 2008 election campaign: "Teacher, teacher! He's racist!" I don't know how threatened Western women are. Most of them don't want marriage or kids these days anyway. I'm not sure we will see a rash of mail order Western brides we may see something analogous to the wholesale marriage of American heiresses to the more impecunious members of Britain's upper class in the 19th Century. We'll also probably see an uptick in same-sex relationships in Asia even if some of the partners are more straight than gay. Also, more disturbingly, a surge in prostitution and prostitution tourism. When China adopted the one-child policy they could not foresee the advent of ultrasound imaging. Arguably China did the best thing for the one-child policy, however harsh, did forestall famine. But the unforeseen consequences, as with all social engineering projects, are serious indeed.
Marc Porter
Niall I am very surprised with your conclusion! We should be providing them with our daughters not locking our daughters up! This could bring more unity between East and West anyway. The West could use more Eastern balance to deliver it from its Politcal Correctness Hell.
John Arnold
Yellow Peril !!!
Lis Schubert
The great Tai Ping Rebellion, a civil war from 1851 to 67, killed tens of millions, It broke out in the time and place of a similar sexual imbalance. The lesson is obvious.
Alan Auyeung
"Lock up your daughters?" What is this, 1882 Yellow Peril language? Hordes of uncivilized mongoloids chomping at the bit for white women? What a shameful piece.
frank
It's already happening in San Francisco! C'est la vie.
pashley1411
This imbalance is created by, you guessed it, government policy, the single child policy in the countryside. So government policy enocuraged a hard look at the sec of their only child, ultrasound equipment facilitated the process, abortions of females soared.
It doesn't mean war, we don't go to war by manpower anymore, modern war needs equipment.
It does mean that there will be a large number of "dsiconnected" men; like in Japan and America now. Men whose prospects of socializing into breadwinners and child-rearing are going to be pretty nill. Japan and America have disconnected men, because women are sidetracked by consumerism and careers from raising children, and the economic regime prevents men from gathering the economic resources to raise a family.
Martin Smith
I think the most likely solution is that the countries facing this problem will export it by importing brides
Firstly from poorer countries in Asia, but the supply of women there will not be so great as to fill the entire shortage plus it will create a shortage of women in thise countries too. So the import of women will need to to come from the only place poor enough left to supply them - the poorer parts of sub-Saharan Africa. As Asia has far more population than Africa, the problem will only be magnified. What will the men do there?
Ted Vahan
Funny, the President and the New York Times keep telling us how wonderful China is. Yet I can't find a single thing about them in print that I'd like to have happen in our country - unless it's gendercide, massive environmental disasters, inability to aid the victims of said disasters, exploited workers, lack of freedom, etc.
Mark Brasher
There are several answers to this problem. In India, which I am familiar with, the incidence of polyandry (a woman sharing two husbands) is high and rising. Typically brothers of low caste or status, they have only one wife. Also, marriage between older men and younger women is likely, as is wealthier city dwellers reaching into their "home village" for a wife. It is typically low status, poor and uneducated men who cannot compete successfully in the "marriage market". These people are not the stuff of rebellion or imperialism. They are put upon, poor and abject.
cashfreezy
The idea that gender imbalance leads to "scary" results is supported only by innuendo in this article.
Qatar has *three and a half times* as many men as women. How has it not descended into violence?
Dory Rama
I can see the nervious white men are nervous about their women. LOL! Well, too bad, your descendants will carry Chinese genes.
John English
An off-point comment: I find it interesting that Mary Anne Warren would choose to append the word "gender" with "cide" given her oft-stated belief that a fetus is not a human being in the moral sense and her support for on-demand abortion rights...
Justin Koenig
I'm so tired of journalists who say one thing is "linked" to another. Being a statistics guy, I demand to see more evidence. You can't just say that one historian noticed a trend and leave it at that. Besides, as one commenter pointed out, Qatar has many more men than women. The Emirates are the same way. Dubai is 77% male. 沙发啊 一亿？？这么可怕？？
可是：这个“一亿”是什么时间段？一天？一个月？一年？10年？还是100年？
如果是一天死一亿人，世界末日来了啊！！
如果一年死一亿人，恩，亚洲（实际上是指中国）够狠！！了不起！！！我们十四亿人胡BOSS当政两届就能搞死至少三分之一，根本不用什么计划生育了。
10年？请给个详细的说明和计算，我很怀疑外国人的数学能力。
100年？知不知道二次大战死了多少人？不知道就去谷歌去，我知道外国人都不信百度。 1亿？
没有确实根据的数字！ 危言耸听！西方人又找来了一个看点！ 液
去西方找老婆去o3O142) 无知
青年突增与性别失调有联系吗？
读书的时候读到牛屁眼里头去了！Q44)Q44) 北朝鲜：0.883
俄罗斯：0.86
问题解决了。 女人多有什么用，反正又不愿意嫁，西方这种情形很多，光看男女比例有用吗？
中国是国家控制生育率低，西方是自然的生育率就低，年轻时候都只愿意玩性而不愿意承担抚养下一代的责任，欧洲衰落是必然的。
问题是中国城市里面，这样的情形也越来越多，不结婚不生育的年轻人数量很多。北京自然出生的现在就是男少女多，深圳更是畸形的移民女多男少。京沪广深，大龄剩女都要成家庭社会问题了，受教育程度越高的越难找到如意对象。是男人少吗？是心态问题罢了。女人多但不愿嫁就有用吗？
“如今的亚洲已经彰显出足够尖锐的民族主义情绪，我们不要吃惊于这种情绪在下一代身上，以军国主义，甚至帝国主义的方式宣泄出来。看好你的女儿吧。”这个结论不适合中国，中国因为男人多就去侵略过别国吗？只要你们不来侵略中国搞到自己被同化，就不用当心你们的基因变种。担心一下中国女人们嫁给外国人入侵外国搞坏你们的基因变成不黄不白不黑的下一代吧，这个担心可能比中国会武力扩张破坏你们的基因更靠谱一些。 海明威《没有女人的男人》中的大部分故事都是有关暴力的，他们中有歹徒、打手和伤兵，最著名的一篇故事题目就叫《杀手》。 那么为什么有那么多剩女呢？ 那么为什么有那么多剩女呢？
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因为男人都选择年轻的女孩，中国男人只注重脸蛋和年纪，另外女人也由于自身有生育年龄的限制所以就剩下了。很多男人都说，婚姻对女性太苛刻和残酷了。 可信吗？Q74) 那么为什么有那么多剩女呢？
中华神箭 发表于 2011-3-10 10:23 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
城市吧。城市里这种状况有点多。对女人而言，宁可当剩女，也不能将就着嫁错个人。男人太不可靠了。 {:13_656:}来个MM把我接走吧！ 正常的男女出生比例是1.07:1，男孩在3岁之前的死亡率大于女孩，成年的男女比例就变成1:1
然而现在的医疗好了，孩子的死亡率降低，男孩就会比女孩多一点，再加上性别歧视。。。 女人多有什么用，反正又不愿意嫁，西方这种情形很多，光看男女比例有用吗？
中国是国家控制生育率低，西方 ...
njtudaodao 发表于 2011-3-10 09:30 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
呃，有点道理~ 中国男人的报应来了。。。因果报应，不是不报，时候未到 Skyblue Kelt：
从另一个角度来看，当一个适龄年轻女性可以选择4到5个年轻男性作为配偶时，她会怎样选择？当然是最有潜力的男性，这些男性可以提供给她和他们的孩子长远、舒适的生活、稳定、和平的家庭环境。尽管我们无法保证年轻的女性是最佳配偶，但是我们几乎可以肯定，目前结婚的这一代人，以及在未来30年结婚的一代人家中的父亲都是最优秀的。因此，这些家庭中的孩子也是最优秀的。如果与西方的同龄人做比较，中国的孩子必将会在各个方面胜出。中国和印度的那些懦夫和胆小鬼应当忧虑他们无可避免的下一代的命运。隐藏在肤浅的表面下的深层次因素对西方人的威胁是更大的。
这位的想法太天真了。如果法制健全，这对女性当然是是不错的选择。
可是天朝法制够健全么？
那些偏远到山高皇帝远的贫困地区，女人外嫁，外地的不愿嫁进去，最后如何呢？一家人存一辈子钱，买个媳妇回来传宗接代。
家家户户每个村子。
那里的人只知道我没有媳妇就没孩子，没孩子就更谈不上男孩，没男人在家撑着全家都要被欺负最后活不下去。谁鸟你法律啊。
警察来了就抡起锄头围攻。你警察还不敢开枪，不然人权组织就想苍蝇一样围上来。 东北应该自治，唯一的男女性别比平衡的汉族主导地区。
以防发生劣币驱逐良币的问题！
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