【2011.3.31 皮尤研究中心】乐观的中国可能不是“花花”的土壤
【中文标题】乐观的中国可能不是“花花”的土壤【原文标题】Upbeat Chinese May Not Be Primed for a Jasmine Revolution
【登载媒体】皮尤研究中心（Pew Research Center）
【来源地址】http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1945 ... eady-for-revolution
【译者】rhapsody
【声明】本译文供Anti-CNN网站使用，未经AC或译者同意，谢绝转载；谢谢合作
【译文】
突尼斯、埃及和其他地方的民主起义引发了这样一种揣测：这波要求民主的运动可能延伸远至中国。北京当局已经迅速行动，以扼杀为中东反ZF运动所激励的抗议示威的可能性。中国领导层需要多担心群体示威是个未知问题，因为判定中国对民主的需求并不容易。不像在阿拉伯世界，过往数年来的调查已经表明了公众对选举自由和言论自由等基本民主权利的支持，在中国是不可能向公民询问他们对民主的态度的。政府不允许这么做。不过，从另一个公众对于政治变革热情的重要指标，个人和经济满意度来看，调查结果并不支持中国和埃及等阿拉伯国家有可比性。调查显示中国可能不会是酝酿中东那种起义的温床。
中国人非常满意国家路线
中国公众近来来非常满意其国家发展的方向，而不像埃及公众那样。皮尤研究中心的全球态度项目组在2010年春季做的一份调查显示，87%的中国受访者表示他们满意国家发展的状况。而只有28%的埃及受访者表达了相同意见，对国家发展方向表示不满的则有69%。两国的这些调查结果与他们对经济的看法有着密切联系：91%的中国受访者形容本国的经济状况良好，而仅有20%的埃及受访者表示同样的看法。形容本国的经济状况良好的埃及受访者数目减少了超过一半，2007年时这一比例尚为53%。
中国受访者对于本国的经济前景同样感到乐观。2010年春季的调查显示，近九成（87%）受访者预计中国的经济形势在未来十二个月会有改善。这个乐观的预测与更早期调查中所表现的乐观情绪如出一辙。而埃及仅有25%受访者认为（本国）经济形势在下一年会有改善，认为维持不变的有35%而预测经济形势事实上会变差则有38%。
中国人感受到个人进步
公众在经济和国家路线等大问题上截然不同的态度，表明了中国和埃及在舆论上有着重大差异。而这种差异在个人层面上甚至更为明显。2010年春季，皮尤全球态度调查要求受访者给自己在“生活阶梯”上定位，0分表示可能是最差的生活状况而10分表示可能是最好的生活状况。受访者同样被要求对五年前以及五年后的生活状况作出定位。
总体而言，中国和埃及受访者对于他们生活状况的评分都要比西欧或美国受访者低得多。然而，在表示高度个人满意度的比例上，中国是埃及的三倍。
此外，虽然埃及和中国民众对于他们现时生活的评分相近，中国认为过去五年里个人（生活状况）有进步的受访者要多得多，对未来的看法也乐观得多。事实上，2007年到2010年之间，认为生活质量低的埃及受访者数量翻了一倍，这说明在今年的反zf示威之前，不满情绪已经有所积累，不止是在民主需求上，也是在个人（对生活的）期望上。
与此相反，近三分之二的中国受访者认为他们的生活状况比五年前好。这一比例甚至超过了美国和西欧。仅有不到五分之一（18%）的埃及受访者认定生活满意度提高，而有近半数受访者认为生活质量下降了。
中国受访者对未来也同样抱有绝对乐观的态度。2010年春季的调查显示，74%的受访者认为未来五年他们的生活会更好——相比美国和西欧的民调，这是一个让人侧目的乐观程度。而在埃及，只有23%的受访者预计会有更高质量的生活，40%的受访者则预计生活质量会更低。中国仅有6%受访者觉得他们未来五年的生活会变差。
中国的持续乐观情绪
按理说，中国盛行的乐观情绪可能抬高民众的预期，而如果预期没有达到的话就可能引发个人或社会的不满情绪。不过迄今中国都似乎避过了这种局面。自2002年以来，中国都一直有多数受访者预计他们未来五年的生活会更好。这表明大多数中国人对于他们的个人期望得到实现有着坚定信心。
认为中国公众对国家和地方政府表现无动於衷的想法是错误的。事实上，新闻报道表明很多中国人对于官员腐败以及政府负责度非常在意，在互联网及其他场合表达他们的关注。但中国公众思想的总体状况距离在埃及引发大规模示威的悲观程度非常遥远。对于本国路线正确的信心，以及对于自己生活会改善的乐观态度，使得中国民众可能不会选择“花花”那样的途径。
【原文】
Upbeat Chinese May Not Be Primed for a Jasmine Revolution
by James Bell, Director of International Survey Research, Pew Global Attitudes Project
The democratic uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere have led to speculation that a wave of pro-democracy movements could spread as far as China. The government in Beijing, for its part, has acted swiftly to quash the possibility of anti-government protests inspired by the Middle East's popular revolts. How much China's leadership has to worry about a mass uprising is an open question, as judging the Chinese appetite for democracy is not easy. Unlike in the Arab world, where opinion surveys over the years have demonstrated public support for such basic democratic rights as free elections and freedom of speech, in China it is not possible to ask citizens about their views on democracy. The government won't allow it. However, on another critical dimension in gauging public enthusiasm for political change -- personal and economic satisfaction -- surveys do allow for comparisons between Chinese attitudes and those in Arab countries, such as Egypt. Here, the polling suggests China may not be ripe for the kind of uprisings seen throughout the Middle East.
Chinese Very Happy With Course of Nation
Unlike the Egyptian public in recent years, the Chinese public has been overwhelmingly content with the direction in which their country is headed. In a spring 2010 survey by the Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project, 87% of Chinese said they were satisfied with the way things were going in their country.1 Just 28% of Egyptians said the same, compared with 69% who were dissatisfied with their country's direction. In both countries these findings were closely linked to views on the economy: 91% of Chinese characterized their country's economic situation as good, compared with only 20% of Egyptians who said the same. The number of Egyptians describing their country's economic situation as good fell by more than half, from 53% in 2007.
The Chinese were equally enthusiastic about the future of their economy. In spring 2010, nearly nine-in-ten (87%) expected the economic situation in China to improve over the next 12 months. This upbeat forecast echoed optimism found in earlier surveys. In Egypt, just 25% thought the economic situation would improve in the coming year, compared with 35% who said it would remain the same and 38% who anticipated the economic situation would actually worsen.
Chinese Sense Personal Progress
Divergent attitudes on broad issues, such as the economy and direction of the country, point to important contrasts between the public mindset in China and Egypt. That contrast is even starker at a more personal level. In spring 2010, the Pew Global Attitudes survey asked respondents to place themselves on a "ladder of life," where zero represents the worst possible life and 10 the best possible life. Respondents were also asked to describe where they stood five years ago and where they guessed they would stand five years in the future.
On balance, both Chinese and Egyptians rated their lives much less positively than Western Europeans or Americans. However, three times as many Chinese as Egyptians reported a high level of personal satisfaction.
And while the Egyptian and Chinese publics rated their current lives comparably, Chinese reported much more personal progress over the past five years and much more optimism looking ahead. The prevailing feeling in Egypt was one of losing ground. In fact, between 2007 and 2010, the number of Egyptians reporting a low quality of life doubled, suggesting that in the lead-up to this year's popular revolt frustrations may have been mounting not only with respect to democratic yearnings, but in terms of personal aspirations.
By contrast, nearly two-thirds of Chinese judged their lives to be better than five years ago. This number out-stripped even the personal progress reported in the U.S. and Western Europe. Fewer than a fifth of Egyptians (18%) registered an improvement in life satisfaction, with nearly half actually reporting a decline in life quality.
The Chinese were decidedly upbeat about the future as well. In spring 2010, 74% believed their lives would be better in five years - an impressive level of optimism compared with opinions in the U.S. and Western Europe. In Egypt, only 23% anticipated a higher quality of life, while 40% predicted a lower quality. In China, just 6% believed their lives would worsen over the next five years.
Sustained Optimism in China
Arguably, widespread optimism in China could inflate popular expectations, which if unmet could lead to personal or social frustration. So far, China seems to have escaped this scenario. Since 2002, a majority of Chinese have consistently predicted that they would have a better life in five years. This suggests an enduring confidence among most Chinese that their personal aspirations will be met.
It would be wrong to assume that the Chinese public is indifferent to the performance of their national or local governments. In fact, news reports indicate that a good number of Chinese care enough about official corruption and government accountability to voice their concerns online or in other forums. But the Chinese public's overall state of mind is very distant from the pessimism that helped set the stage for massive protests in Egypt. Confident that their country is on the right path, and optimistic that their own lives will improve, the Chinese public might not be so likely to embrace a Jasmine-style revolution.
P.S. 依然感谢某人帮忙制作中文图片~o3O89) 这会让西方人很不爽的 100多西方妓者 2.3个JY的耍猴 连洋大人都发觉上当了，被“坑爹党”给坑了Q79) 经济基础决定上层建筑 这点在那都是通用的谁愿意饿着肚子喊我要爱爱 100多西方妓者 2.3个JY的耍猴 连洋大人都发觉上当了，被“坑爹党”给坑了 ...
无可就要 发表于 2011-4-7 21:23 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif你很给力啊 洋鬼子很清楚，想要中国大乱，就要遏制中国经济发展势头，人民币升值是个“好的”开始。 西霉痛苦的认识到了中国不是他们可以随意摆弄的。这也印证了一句话：发展才是硬道理。 呵呵，那些乱在网上代表别人发言的人，应该消停一下了。 100多西方妓者 2.3个JY的耍猴 连洋大人都发觉上当了，被“坑爹党”给坑了 ...
无可就要 发表于 2011-4-7 21:23 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
呵呵。 对于迟迟没有到来的中国社会动荡，洋奴们心急如焚，已经是只管煽动目标，完全不顾道德逻辑了。
那些对西方民主顶礼膜拜的洋奴，连西方人都非常鄙视地称他们为“比美国人更爱美国的人”，眼中充满了不屑。 中国人非常满意国家路线 這是由於皮尤的調查是基於海外中國人的。國內的中國人依舊反華和反中國。
這是可以從互聯網上得到證實的。國內的中國人都在反華 我覺得數據有點問題。
爲什麽滿意的是87%，而不滿意的卻不是13%？？？？？？難道總數不是100%？ 有调查才有发言权。不过这个调查时怎么出来的，反正我不相信是网络上出来的，CIA那份民调估计就是带路党在网络上搞的，所以才会让某大使在错误的时间出现在错误的地点打酱油。 回复 13# 連長
难道没有中间派？不是很满意，一般 中国北方缺水 南方土壤含铁比较多 偏酸性 四川云南一带海拔又太高 自然没有适合种植花花的地方(...) 回复 3# 无可就要
Q51) 法国佬和德国佬岂不是很失望？
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