【2011.05.26 Lowy Institute】中国航母的秘密（一）
四月没有军事选项，还是军事属政治范畴？【中文标题】中国航母的秘密（一）
【原文标题】China's aircraft carrier mystery (part 1)
【登载媒体】the Lowy Institute blog, The Interpreter
【来源地址】http://lowyinterpreter.org/post/ ... stery-(part-1).aspx
【译者】diver18
【翻译方式】人工
【原文作者】 By Raoul Heinrichs - 26 May 2011 9:44AM
【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。(本人放弃版权！）
【原文库链接】n/a
【译文】
在90年代中期，为了遏制台独势力的抬头，中国进行了一系列的军事演习。对此，美国作出了直接和强制的反应：不惜以开战作赌注，华盛顿向台湾海域派出了两个航空母舰战斗群。这是一个明显的挑战升级，其目的就是要迫使北京停止演习，这次豪赌美国赢了。当然，这一事件也给中国的军事和政治领导层预示了许多重要的教训。
今天，海上封锁战略的研习，尽量减少在类似形式下强制行动所需付出的代价，已经成为中国军事现代化至为关键的一方面。在实践中，这意味着提高对美军防范的成本和风险，特别是在中国沿海或台湾海峡的航空母舰群。
一个明智的做法就是专注于几个关键的要素：
1。潜艇和作战飞机；
2。精密制导打击能力，包括反舰弹道导弹;
3。C4ISR自动化指挥系统资源
（C4ISR：C4代表指挥，控制，通讯，计算机，四个字的英文开头字母均为“C，”所以称“C4。”“I”代表情报；“S”代表电子监听；“R”代表侦察。C4ISR是军事术语,意为自动化指挥系统。）
C4ISR能够有效地跟踪和锁定---中国已实现了靠现有技术能够达到的行之有效的策略，既通过安全地在第一和第二岛链的部署来阻止或防止美国航母战斗群。这已经使美国海军非常头痛了。
还有，因为它不依赖于大型战舰去封锁和控制水域，因此这种策略有保障因素，但有可能加剧区域平衡紧张。
基于上述理由，中国决定建造购买的航空母舰--即将完工，并可能很快下海—带给了防务分析家一个迷。航空母舰，当然是有威胁性的，意在扩张势力范围到更远的地方。他们是昂贵和人力密集型；好像和中国的海上封锁战略有没有什么联系；需要大量的护航，从而分流其它的海军力量，并给予反潜战的界限，甚至可能会削弱相对适度的封锁能力。
这就引出了一个问题：花了过去二十年去学习和寻求利用航母的局限性，为什么中国开始了自己的，显然不是最优的，航母方案？我将在两个后续帖子中，分析一下三个可能的解释。
China's aircraft carrier mystery (part 1)
By Raoul Heinrichs - 26 May 2011 9:44AM
In the mid-1990s, China, protesting against what it perceived as a relaxation of constraints on Taiwanese independence, staged a series of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. The US response was direct and coercive: with its credibility at stake, Washington dispatched two aircraft-carrier groups to waters surrounding Taiwan. It was a bold escalation, and to the extent that it forced Beijing to desist, it worked. Yet the episode also heralded a number of important lessons for China's military and political leadership.
Today, the most intensive aspect of Chinese military modernisation involves the development of a maritime denial strategy, designed to limit China's liability to similar forms of coercion. In practice, this means raising the costs and risks to US forces, especially aircraft carrier groups, of operating along China's maritime periphery or in the vicinity of Taiwan.
It's a smart approach. By focusing on a few key elements — submarines and combat aircraft; precision-guided strike capabilities, including an anti-ship ballistic missile; and C4ISR assets, which allow for effective tracking and targeting — China has adopted a cost-effective strategy within technological reach that, by deterring or preventing US carrier groups from safely deploying within the first and second island chains, has already begun to greatly complicate US naval planning.
Moreover, because it does not rely on the kinds of capabilities necessary to seize and hold territory across water – namely, large warships – the strategy also contains elements of reassurance, however implicit, tempering the urgency of regional balancing efforts.
In this regard, China's decision to acquire an aircraft carrier – which is nearing completion (see photo above) and may sail soon — presents defence analysts with a puzzle. Aircraft carriers, of course, are threatening, designed to facilitate power projection over great distances. They are cost- and labour-intensive; have no compelling role in China's denial strategy; require extensive escort, thus diverting other naval capabilities; and, given the limits of anti-submarine warfare, may be vulnerable to even relatively modest denial capabilities.
This begs the question: having spent much of the past two decades studying and seeking to exploit the limitations of aircraft carriers, why is China embarked on its own, apparently sub-optimal program? Three competing explanations stand out, which I will explore in two follow-up posts. 友情顶贴！ 友情顶贴！ 楼主辛苦了。 Q29)Q29) 我靠，还要等下集啊！ 这个问题都不知道讨论多少遍了，解决台湾根本就不需要航母~
台湾海峡平均宽度150公里，最窄处130公里，从大陆起飞的J10（作战半径1100公里左右）、J11（作战半径1500公里左右）战机的作战半径完全能够覆台湾岛~再加上WS系列战术火箭（射程200公里不等）及DF21战术导弹（射程1500公里），大陆完全有能力不需要动用航母就可以武力搞定台湾~动用航母打台湾反而给对方提供活靶子，是画蛇添足的行为。
中国向来是提倡非对称战争的，所以中国的航母应该也不会是针对美国的，双方航母的实力在那摆着呢，跟美国比拼航母等于自寻死路。
目前来看，我想中国研制航母的首要打击的对象应该是与中国在南沙有领海争端的那几个国家（印尼、菲律宾、越南等）
早期因为不重视海军发展，在加上J7战机腿短的毛病，在南沙海域中国没有制海制空的优势，最后造成现在南沙大部分岛屿被越南、菲律宾、印尼等国侵占的局面。而航母完全能够扭转中国海军在南中国海的不利局势~ 顶Q40)
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