【2011.06.09 时代】为什么我们害怕崛起的中国（转载）
【中文标题】为什么我们害怕崛起的中国【原文标题】Why do we fear a rising China?
【原文链接】http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/06/07/why-do-we-fear-a-rising-china/
【译文链接】http://www.360doc.com/content/11/0609/18/363711_122734334.shtml【全文】
显然中国的崛起整体而言对全球经济是有益的。中国13亿人获得新的财富，意味着多了13亿可以从世界其他国家购物的人，为美国实验室和日本工业区乃至巴西的矿井创造就业。不再完全依赖于美国消费者的全球经济可能会更加稳定和繁荣。
但几乎没有人是这么看待中国的。许多人根本不承认中国在世界经济中的积极作用。相反，他们把注意力集中在中国所带来的竞争或是许多人认为中国“偷走”的就业机会。不过即便是那些意识到、甚至直接受益于中国发展的人，也无法不对中国的发展感到不安。但为什么会这样？我们为什么会这样担心崛起的中国，却不担心崛起的印度？或者说，为什么一个经济强大的中国比一个更强大的欧洲更难以让人接受？
许多人对于中国崛起的矛盾情绪，正是我最近在《时代》周刊撰写的关注澳大利亚与这个“中央帝国”关系的文章的主题。澳大利亚正在发生的事情对于我们所有人来说都是对于未来的启示。而对于我来说，在澳大利亚进行报道让我思考为何我们这么多人——不光在西方，在亚洲也是如此——对于中国成为超级大国这件事如此忧虑。
世界上没有几个国家从中国迅速的经济增长中获得多于澳大利亚在经济发展方面获得的好处。由中国需求——尤其是对原材料的需求——猛增而带来的出口繁荣是澳大利亚在2008年金融危机之后得以避免衰退的重要原因，甚至可能是决定性因素。对华贸易还刺激了投资和就业。但与此同时，澳大利亚人对于他们和中国关系的发展开始感到不安。他们担心经济增长太过依赖中国。他们担心中国会利用其经济影响力对澳大利亚施加政治压力，担心有利于他们钱包的那些事情会从政治上和战略上对国家造成伤害，而且中国越强大，潜在的危险就越大。
中国经济模式挑战西方
美国人对于中国人持有如此之多的美国债券深感不安。日本持有的美国债券与中国差不多，但似乎并没有让任何人感到不安。当然，30年前可能会有人不安。许多人今天对中国的反应和上世纪80年代对日本的反应非常类似，当时日本对西方来说是新兴的经济挑战者。近年来，美国人对中国试图收购优尼科石油公司感到不安；20多年前，美国人对日本收购洛克菲勒中心感到不安。为什么？在美国对索尼收购好莱坞哥伦比亚影片公司作出过于情绪化的反应之后，索尼创始人盛田昭夫指出，出生于澳大利亚的鲁珀特· 默多克此前收购了二十世纪福克斯，却没有遭遇这种波折。盛田昭夫指山，其中的原因就是种族偏见。
这或许也是今天中国面临的部分情况。但问题远比这复杂得多。在西方，欧洲人和美国人统治了世界舞台长达几个世纪，以至于其他人对全球霸权的宝座提出要求会让他们感到不适。当年美国人对日本所担忧的就是日本人是全球经济中的竞争者，而非合作者。他们担心日本试图削弱美国的统治地位，至少是在商业领域。此外，日本还依靠一个对美国的自由市场和自由企业理念形成挑战的经济体制获得了成功。对于许多人来说，日本崛起的背后似乎有着某种危险——一个具有竞争性和陌生的经济、企业和文化体系，产生了优于西方的结果，并且似乎只关心自己的利益。来自日本的挑战不仅是经济上的，还是意识形态上的。
今天许多人对于中国的担忧十分类似。中国也采用了竞争性的经济模式——“国家资本主义”——挑战西方的经济思想。在许多方面，中国还表现出一种重商主义的姿态，让人觉得它几乎不关心其他任何人。中国保持着对货币的控制，这样其出口就能够战胜其他国家，它还随时随地尽可能地为自己攫取自然资源。最糟糕的是，中国经济增长背后的政治意识形态与西方关于民主和人权的理念截然相反。中国不仅在世界市场上与美国竞争，还提出了一个完全不同的经济和政治体系。中国正依靠美国人所鄙弃的理念取得成功。
中国挑战政治军事框架
许多人对中国的担忧还不止于此。没有人认为日本会对西方构成军事威胁甚至成为世界外交影响力的挑战者。日本想成为第一，但只是在世界经济中的角色。此外，日本还是全球性组织机构的一部分——它是七国集团成员，同时是立场清晰的美国军事盟友。中国则完全不是这样。中国正利用其经济影响力越来越多地提出由美国领导的政治经济体系的替代品。北京方面经常抱怨美元的主要地位并希望自己的货币扮演更加重要的国际角色。中国的外交官们试图在非洲和拉美扩展中国的政治影响力，同时支持那些显然与美国利益相敌对的国家。同时中国也正在成为更加强大的军事国家，这让其邻居们——其中许多都有过与中国冲突的历史（韩国、越南、日本）——极为紧张。中国的GDP每增长lO%，其政府就会在其武装部队上花费更多的钱。
换言之，中国挑战的似乎不仅是当今的经济正统和秩序，还有世界的政治和军事框架。中国不满足于把更多的电视机卖到世界上。中国人希望对世界有更大的控制力，他们希望利用自己的经济影响力来实现这一点。
事实上我们只是在猜想中国作为一个超级大国会怎么做。由于中国现在还是一个相对贫穷的国家，我们有理由认为，在其发展的现阶段，中国领导人应该会专注于对中国有利的事情。随着中国变得更加富有，他们的视野会不会更加宽广？我们不得而知。
当美国取代衰落的不列颠帝国成为全球领导者的时候，全世界很清楚会发生什么——总体而言，美国会继续坚持自由企业和民主的理念。现在，一个同样重大的转变正在发生——东方的崛起——但人们不知道这对于世界文明的发展方向意味着什么。或许这是我们最担心的。一个正发生根本性改变的世界的不确定性。
【原文】
Why do we fear a rising China?
Posted by MICHAEL SCHUMAN Tuesday, June 7, 2011 at 4:31 am
It's hard to argue that the rise of China, taken on the whole, is anything but good for the global economy. New wealth for China's 1.3 billion people means 1.3 billion more people who can buy stuff from the rest of the world, creating jobs from American research labs to Japanese industrial zones to Brazilian mines. A global economy no longer solely dependent on the U.S. consumer for growth is potentially more stable and prosperous.
Yet few people see China that way. Many don't acknowledge China's positive role in the world economy at all. Instead, they focus on the competition China has created, especially for the developed world, or the jobs many believe China has “stolen.” However, even those who realize, or even directly benefit from, China's advance still can't but feel uneasy about that advance. But why is that? Why do we fear a rising China in a way we don't a rising India? Or why is an economically powerful China less acceptable than, for example, a stronger Europe?
The conflicting emotions many have about China's rise are the subject of my latest TIME magazine story, focused on Australia's relationship with the Middle Kingdom. What's happening Down Under is a glimpse into the future for all of us. And for me, reporting there got me thinking about why so many of us – and not just in the West, but out here in Asia as well – are having so much trouble coming to terms with the idea of China as a superpower.
There are few countries in the world that have benefited more from China's rapid economic growth than Australia. The boom in exports Australia has enjoyed due to surging Chinese demand, especially for raw materials, is a key reason – perhaps the determining factor – why the country avoided a recession after the 2008 financial crisis. Trade with China is also spurring investment and creating jobs. But simultaneously, Australians are becoming uncomfortable about their growing relationship with China. They fret that the economy is becoming too dependent on China for its growth. They worry China will use its economic leverage to put political pressure on the country, or employ its growing economic power to become a strategic threat. They don't much care for Chinese companies buying Australian assets. Australians worry that what helps their wallets hurts their country politically and strategically, and the more powerful China gets, the bigger that potential danger. Hugh White, head of the Strategic & Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University, explained the sentiment to me this way: “As China keeps growing strong enough to fulfill Australians' economic aspirations, it grows more powerful and undermines U.S. primacy and our strategic aspirations. People are conscious that with the benefits we get from Chinese growth, there is a certain degree of vulnerability.”
I think many of us around the world can sympathize with the Australians. As David Pilling of The Financial Times recently pointed out, China's neighbors aren't too fond of the way Beijing throws its new heft around in the Asia region as its economic influence grows. It's no coincidence that political leaders in Seoul and Taipei strive to maintain strong ties to Washington even as their economies become driven more and more by China. Americans are queasy that the Chinese own so much U.S. debt. The Japanese own just about as much, but that doesn't seem to bother anybody.
Of course, 30 years ago, it might have. The reaction many have to China today is very similar to the one that towards Japan in the 1980s, when the Land of the Rising Sun was the rising economic challenger to the West. In recent years, Americans got all jittery about a Chinese attempt to buy oil firm Unocal; more than 20 years ago, Americans got all jittery over Japan's acquisition of Rockefeller Center. Why? After the overly emotional response in the U.S. to Sony's acquisition of Hollywood's Columbia Pictures, co-founder Akio Morita pointed out that Australian born Rupert Murdoch had previously bought 20th Century Fox, without the drama. He was suggesting the reason was racism.
That may be part of the story today with China as well. But the issues are far more complex than that. In the West, Europeans and Americans have dominated the world scene for so many centuries that they're uncomfortable with the notion of someone else claiming the throne of global hegemony. The concern Americans had with Japan back in the day was that the Japanese were competitors in the global economy, not partners. The fear was that Japan was trying to undermine American dominance, at least in the realm of business. Even beyond that, Japan was winning with an economic system that challenged American ideals of free markets and free enterprise. For many, the rise of Japan seemed to have something sinister behind it – a competing and unfamiliar economic, corporate and cultural system that was producing superior results to those of the West, and appeared to have only its own interests at heart. The challenge from Japan was not just economic, but ideological.
The reasons many fear China today are very similar. China, too, uses a competing economic model – “state capitalism” – that challenges the economic ideology of the West. In many ways, China also behaves in a mercantilist fashion, which gives the impression it cares little about anyone else. It keeps its currency controlled so its exports can out-compete those from other countries, and it grabs natural resources for itself wherever and whenever it can. Often state-controlled companies are doing the grabbing, making China seem like a threatening monolithic juggernaut. Worst of all, the political ideology behind China's economic ascent completely counters Western ideals about democracy and human rights. China is not just competing with the U.S. in world markets, but offering up an entirely different economic and political system, one that at times seems better at creating growth and jobs, even as it restricts much-cherished civil liberties. China is succeeding based on ideas that Americans despise.
The concerns many in the world have with China go well beyond even that. No one ever expected Japan to become a military threat to the West, or even a contender for diplomatic influence around the world. Japan wanted to be No.1, but only when it came to its role in the world economy. Aside from that Japan was a part of the global establishment – a member of the G7 and a clear U.S. military ally. China is none of those things. More and more, China is using its economic clout to offer an alternative to the U.S.-led political and economic system. Beijing routinely complains about the primacy of the dollar and wants its own currency to play a greater international role. Chinese diplomats have tried to extend their country's political pull across Africa and Latin America while supporting countries clearly hostile to U.S. interests (such as North Korea.) And Beijing is becoming a bigger military power as well, something that makes its neighbors, many of which have a history of conflict with China (South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan) extremely nervous. Every extra 10% to China's GDP translates into more money the government can spend on its navy and armed forces.
In other words, China appears to be challenging not just today's economic orthodoxy and order, but the world's political and military framework as well. China isn't content just to sell more TV sets to the world, like Japan. The Chinese want to have more control over the world.And they want to use their economic clout to get it.
Or so we think. The fact is we're only guessing at what China might do as a superpower. Since China is still a relatively poor nation today, it makes sense that at this stage in its development, its leadership tends to be focused on what's good for China. Will China's outlook broaden as it become richer? We don't know.
When the U.S. took over global leadership from a waning British Empire, the world had a pretty good idea what to expect – that overall the U.S. would continue to hold to ideas of free enterprise and democracy. Now an equally important shift is taking place – the rise of the East – but it's not so clear what it all means for the direction of global civilization. So maybe that's what we fear most of all. The uncertainty of a fundamentally changing world. 唉。。。。我们就该是穷鬼。。。。。。。 {:12_560:}三十年河东三十年河西！下次去把大英博物馆洗劫一番！ 明显的以己度人 如果中国的崛起注定将会令你们感到越来越不安，那就对不起，继续不安下去吧，直到渐渐习惯、平静接受，或者…… 一句话总结全文：China is the world's public enemy...o3O147) 警惕啊，这是糖衣炮弹！ 美国替代英国的时候是在二战德国人把英国人打残了以后……是真正的坐山观虎斗 这帮家伙当初抢了中国，心虚得很，现在中国刚强大一点就怕了。 还算客观~ 因为以前总是欺负中国，现在中国开始长壮了，手里开始握着家伙了，当然要怕。 你们不怕中国崛起，你们只是怕自己吸不了中国的血了，一群寄生虫的惧怕。 中国不仅经济崛起，而且文化更先进——中国人很早就进入了世俗社会（中国人普遍相信的是老天爷——也就是敬畏大自然），现代以来宗教更成为小众事件——个人一直认为全民信教是落后的文化，先进文明社会的宗教必然是淡化的。
美国怕的是不知道有13亿不信上帝的异教徒崛起后世界会变成什么样？他们认为不可想像。 当取代衰落的不列颠帝国成为全球领导者的时候，全世界很清楚会发生什么——总体而言，美国会继续坚持自由企业和民主的理念。现在，一个同样重大的转变正在发生——东方的崛起——但人们不知道这对于世界文明的发展方向意味着什么。或许这是我们最担心的。一个正发生根本性改变的世界的不确定性。
红字为全文中心思想，其他不解释。 在许多方面，中国还表现出一种重商主义的姿态，让人觉得它几乎不关心其他任何人。……最糟糕的是，中国经济增长背后的政治意识形态与西方关于民主和人权的理念截然相反。中国不仅在世界市场上与美国竞争，还提出了一个完全不同的经济和政治体系。中国正依靠美国人所鄙弃的理念取得成功。
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这段话真雷人，请问哪个国家不是重商主义？“几乎不关心其他任何人”，呃，那是美国人的专利，他们真是太过关心其他国家了，以至于不插手内政就很手痒。在“关心”这方面美国真是一个好榜样！中国不仅在世界市场上与美国竞争……难道中国应该在另外一个银河系和美国竞争吗？还提出了一个完全不同的经济和政治体系……这个体系可并没有那么完全不同，至少在市场经济这一块运作模式是一致的。中国正依靠美国人所鄙弃的理念取得成功。
……对不起，我忘了世界是美国创造的。 这帮家伙当初抢了中国，所以》》》》》》 胜者为王，败者为寇！！！ 当美国取代衰落的不列颠帝国成为全球领导者的时候，全世界很清楚会发生什么——总体而言，美国会继续坚持自由企业和民主的理念。现在，一个同样重大的转变正在发生——东方的崛起——但人们不知道这对于世界文明的发展方向意味着什么。或许这是我们最担心的。一个正发生根本性改变的世界的不确定性。
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