【2011.6.13 路透社】—鲁比诺对世界经济的估计
【中文标题】路透社—鲁比诺对世界经济的估计【原文标题】Meaningful probability" of a China hard landing: Roubini【登载媒体】路透社【译者】 无聊人的意志【原文链接】http://www.economist.com/blogs/prospero/2011/06/chinese-censorship【翻译方式】人工【声明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。【正文】凯文·利马新加坡 | 2011年六月13日 上午9:31（路透社）- 美国经济学家鲁比尼（Nouriel Roubini)在出席一次举行于新加坡的金融会议时说表示：中国很可能发生经济硬着陆，欧元区若是不能摆脱债台高筑的局面，恐怕将来同样要面临更多问题。他说：因为欧洲债务危机和对全球经济发展的悲观估计，投资者正试图寻找一个避险投资环境，美国的国债价格骤然上涨。 尽管其价格仍然处于正常范围内，但是他对美国股市持保守态度。华尔街密切关注鲁比尼的言论,因为他曾经准确预言了美国楼市崩盘。他又说：中国曾在信贷危机中避免了受到直接冲击。但是它可能要在2013年后面对一个下行期，届时要维持稳定的投资增幅会很困难。鲁比尼说：投资已经占GDP的将近百分之五十。六十年来的经验已经表明，投资将导致经济冲击。他引用了苏联在二十世纪六七十年代以及97年金融危机前东亚的例子。“我最近从上海坐高速铁路到杭州去，这项工程使得旅程大大缩短，原来的4个小时，现在不到一个小时。 新的高速列车一半是空的，新的车站四分之三是空的，车站边的高速公路看起来四分之三也是空的，火车站附近新的上海地方机场（译者补充，虹桥机场么？上海怎么有了新机场。）也有飞往杭州的班机。“一个国家的经济因为成倍的基础设施而持续增长，这不符合经济学原理。”欧美：鲁比尼说：全球经济的风险是平衡的，美国公司拥有两万亿美国的雄厚储备。所以这次的金融危机很可能不会给美国带来大萧条。鲁比尼作为以他自己名字命名的投资公司的老板认为：长期困扰发达国家的债务问题以及美国通过减税等政府举措来保持消费。这就像一个半空的玻璃杯。在被问及关于美国金融市场前景的问题上，鲁比诺表示：他将坚守美国股市，但是他并不认为国债存在泡沫。他补充说：美国作为一个超级大国，将会通过保持十年期国债的低增长和其不到3%的收益率以保证低通胀。“每时每刻都存在着全球的流行性风险回避，都有发生重大灾难的可能，这就是人们为什么把日币和欧元倒进垃圾桶，以美元或者美国国债取而代之的原因。”美国十年期国债收益率在周一回升了0.5个基点，达到了2.9802%。不过在去年4月这个指标要达到3.9%，二月达到过3.7%。
对于全球经济的另一个威胁报告债务危机就是欧元区外围国家的债务问题，而欧盟并不愿意正面这一危机。”
希腊，葡萄牙和爱尔兰已然濒临破产。欧盟制定出了一个以资金援助为希腊作保直至2014年的方案，但是雅典方面仍然面临沉重的债务，甚至是债务重组。欧盟只是在用钱拖延时间，这样的举措只能使最后的崩溃变得更加严重。
Meaningful probability" of a China hard landing: Roubini
By Kevin LimSINGAPORE | Mon Jun 13, 2011 9:31am EDT
(Reuters) - China faces a "meaningful probability" of a hard economic landing and the euro zone is storing up problems for the future by not tackling the debt crisis head on, said Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global financial crisis.
He said U.S. Treasury prices, which have risen sharply as investors sought a safe haven from the euro area debt crisis and worries about a slowdown in the global economy, were fairly valued although he was cautious about U.S. equities.
New York-based Roubini is closely followed by Wall Street because he predicted the U.S. housing meltdown that precipitated the global downturn.
China avoided a hard landing during the global credit crunch but faces a downturn after 2013 as it will struggle to keep increasing fixed investments, Roubini said.
"There is a meaningful probability of a hard landing in China after 2013," he told a financial conference in Singapore.
Roubini said investment was already 50 percent of gross domestic product. Sixty years of data had shown that over- investment led to hard landings, he said, citing the Soviet Union in the 1960s and 70s, and East Asia before the 1997 financial crisis.
"I was recently in Shanghai and I took their high-speed train to Hangzhou," he said, referring to the new Maglev line that has cut traveling time between the two cities to less than an hour from four hours previously.
"The brand new high-speed train is half-empty and the brand new station is three-quarters empty. Parallel to that train line, there is a also a new highway that looked three-quarters empty. Next to the train station is also the new local airport of Shanghai and you can fly to Hangzhou," he said.
"There is no rationale for a country at that level of economic development to have not just duplication but triplication of those infrastructure projects."
U.S., EUROPE
Roubini said the risks confronting the global economy were evenly balanced. U.S. corporates had strong cash balances of some $2 trillion and the fact that the global financial crisis was not followed by a great depression were positives.
Persistent debt problems in advanced economies and the fact that U.S. consumption is being sustained by tax cuts and other government support were negatives, he said.
"It is a glass that is half full and half empty," said Roubini, head of an investment advisory firm that bears his name.
Asked about his outlook on U.S. financial markets, Roubini said he would stay defensive on equities but he did not believe there was a bubble in treasuries.
"At current levels, U.S. treasuries are fairly valued. I don't think there is a bond bubble," he said, adding U.S. 10-year bond yields at 3 percent or slightly lower were consistent with the low growth and low inflation outlook for the world's largest economy.
"Every time there is a global bout of risk aversion, and every other week there is another tail risk or black swan event, people dump the euro, dump yen and go to the safety of the U.S. dollar and U.S. treasuries," he added.
U.S. 10-year yields edged up just over half a basis point in Europe on Monday to 2.9802 percent. But they have fallen from 3.7 percent in February and 3.9 percent in April last year.
Other risks to the global economy include the debt problem in Europe's so-called periphery countries and the euro zone's reluctance to address issues head on.
Greece, Portugal and Ireland have been financially bailed out over unsustainable debt levels.
The EU is currently thrashing out a second package for Greece to ensure the country is funded through 2014 but many analysts believe Athens will struggle even then to avoid a harsh debt restructuring in the future.
"Kicking the can down the road, muddling through, extending and pretending that Greece will be better and you buy time... may make the collapse more disorderly over time," he said. 杭州到上海不足二百公里，就算是90年代也不用四小时 白人YY {:12_542:}哥们我现身说法，经常要到上海，就是坐这个动车的。没见到说空一半这么夸张啊！（难道是我每次坐的车厢人都是最多的？）空的时候有三分之一没人坐是很正常的！
难道这哥们运气这么好，刚好让他碰上空一半的火车，空四分之三的车站，空四分之三的高速公路？
说到高速就来气，过年跟老哥开车回家还堵得慌呢。NND的那四分之三空的高速公路呢！ 回复 4# orangegxm
美国人NC。他们的火车一直都是空的。跑到中国不拥挤了就觉得不正常 哥们我现身说法，经常要到上海，就是坐这个动车的。没见到说空一半这么夸张啊！（难道是我每次坐 ...
orangegxm 发表于 2011-6-17 12:28 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
真是这样 说白天都是些没有营养的废话，什么中国经济要面临硬着陆，可是却没有任何站得住脚的依据，难道就因为“一个国家的经济因为成倍的基础设施而持续增长，这不符合经济学原理。”这怎么看都是扯蛋。 说白天都是些没有营养的废话，什么中国经济要面临硬着陆，可是却没有任何站得住脚的依据，难道就因为“一个 ...
沐霜 发表于 2011-6-18 10:54 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
基础设施建设恰是发展的需要啊
基础设置都跟不上，谈何发展？ 回复 8# 林香
所以我才觉得这所谓的经济学家真的莫名其妙。 回复林香
所以我才觉得这所谓的经济学家真的莫名其妙。
沐霜 发表于 2011-6-18 11:14 http://bbs.m4.cn/images/common/back.gif
嗯如果一个国家的经济实力强大达到了一定程度
却不拿出来搞基础设施建设，那才不符合经济学原理额 一个国家的经济因为成倍的基础设施而持续增长，这不符合经济学原理。
我哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈！！！！ 美国之前造那么多高速公路干嘛？大沙漠里面的高速公路大多数都很空吧 他去的是宁一个次元的上海。 胡说八道。。。 片面之词
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