【2011.03.13 华盛顿邮报】美国能够养活中国吗？
本帖最后由 napiers 于 2011-3-24 15:45 编辑【中文标题】美国能够养活中国吗？
【原文标题】Can the United States feed China?
【登载媒体】华盛顿邮报
【翻译方式】人工
【 译 者】napiers
【原文作者】Lester R. Brown
【原文链接】http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/11/AR2011031106993.html
Environmentalist explains why America will have to feed its rival
环保人士解释为何美国必须养活它的竞争对手
China is at war. It is not invading armies but expanding deserts that threaten its territory. As old deserts grow, as new ones form and as more and more irrigation wells go dry, Beijing is losing a long battle to feed its growing population on its own.
中国正处于战争状态。这并非由于入侵的敌军，而是扩张的沙漠威胁它的领土。随着旧的沙漠不断增长、新的沙漠也不断形成，以及越来越多的灌溉井变得干涸。北京即将输掉一场自力更生养活自己人口的长期战争。
In the years to come, China will almost certainly have to turn to the outside world for grain to avoid politically destabilizing price spikes. Enter the United States - by far the world's largest grain exporter. The United States exports about 90 million tons of grain annually, though China requires 80 million tons of grain each year to meet just one-fifth of its needs.
在未来的几年里，中国将几乎肯定要转而寻求外部世界的粮食，以避免由于价格上涨导致政治上不稳定。目标显然是美国——迄今为止世界上最大的粮食出口国。美国出口约9000万吨粮食，但中国每年需要8000万吨粮食来满足自己仅仅五分之一的需求。
Just as China is America's banker, America could become China's farmer. Such a scenario - to be dependent on imported grain, much of it from the United States - is China's worst nightmare and one that could create nightmares for U.S. consumers, as well.
正如中国是美国的债主，美国有可能成为中国的农民。这样的情景——即要依赖粮食进口，其中大部分来自美国——是中国最大的噩梦，但这也可能会成为美国消费者的噩梦。
The evidence of China's plight is clear. Since 1950, some 24,000 villages in the northwestern part of the country have been totally or partially abandoned as sand dunes encroach on cropland. And with millions of Chinese farmers drilling wells to expand their harvests, water tables are falling under much of the North China Plain, which produces half of the nation's wheat and a third of its corn.
关于中国困境的证据是明确的。自1950年以来，由于沙丘对耕地的侵占，该国西北部大约24000个村庄被完全或部分地放弃。由于数以百万计的中国农民为了增收而不断地打井，中国北方平原的地下水位正在下降，而全国一半的小麦和三分之一的玉米都出自这里。
Chinese agriculture is also losing irrigation water to cities and factories. Cropland is being sacrificed for residential and industrial construction, including highways and parking lots that accommodate China's voracious demand for automobiles. In 2009, automobile sales in China totaled just under 14 million, surpassing those in the United States for the first time. For every 1 million cars added to this fleet, at least 50,000 acres are paved over.
中国农业灌溉用水也流失进入城市和工厂。耕地正在成为住宅和工业建设的牺牲品，为容纳中国旺盛的汽车需求而建设的高速公路和停车场也功不可没。2009年中国汽车销售总额接近1400万辆，首次超越美国。而每增加1万辆车，至少5万英亩的耕地随之消失。
And China's food supply is already tightening. In November, its food price index was up 12 percent from 2009. The price of vegetables alone was up 62 percent.
中国的食品供应已经趋紧。在十一月，它的食品价格指数与2009年相比上涨12%。仅蔬菜的价格就上涨了62%。
In these conditions, how do you feed more than 1 billion people? This question vexes China's leaders, many of whom are survivors of the Great Famine, in which 30 million people starved to death between 1959 and 1961. Last year, in an effort to halt rising food prices, the government auctioned corn, wheat, rice and soybeans from state reserves. And in recent years, China has bought or leased land in other countries from Sudan to Indonesia to produce food and biofuels, but there is little to show in production from these lands so far.
在这种情况下，你怎么养活超过10亿的人口？这个问题使得中国领导人抓狂，其中许多人是大饥荒——即大约有3000万人饿死的，从1959年到1961年的三年自然灾害时期——死亡的幸存者。去年，为了试图努力制止不断上涨的粮食价格，政府拍卖玉米、小麦、大米和大豆的国家储备。在最近几年，中国已经购买或租用其他国家——从苏丹到印尼——的土地，生产粮食和生物燃料，但迄今为止很少有迹象表明这些土地已经投入生产。
If China, which imported about 2 million tons of U.S. corn and wheat combined in 2010, charges into the U.S. grain market, American consumers will find themselves competing with nearly 1.4 billion foreign consumers for the U.S. grain harvest. This would raise the prices not only of products made directly from grain, such as bread, pasta and breakfast cereals, but also of meat, milk and eggs, which take large quantities of grain to produce. Corn futures have already hit $7 a bushel, up from $2 a bushel five years ago. In that same period, soybean futures climbed from $6 a bushel to $14 a bushel, and cattle and hog futures hit all-time highs.
中国在2010年进口约200万吨的美国玉米和小麦，如果它闯入美国粮食市场，美国的消费者会发现自己与近14亿的国外消费者争夺美国谷物收成。这不仅将提高粮食直接制成的产品，诸如面包、意大利面和谷类早餐的价格，而且也会提高需要消耗大量粮食来生产的肉类、牛奶和鸡蛋的价格。玉米期货已经从的五年前的每蒲式耳2美元达到7美元。与此同时，大豆期货从每蒲式耳6美元攀升至14美元，活牛和猪期货也触及历史高点。
China has been here before - with soybeans. In 1995, around the time the Communist Party prioritized grain production, China produced and consumed 14 million tons of soybeans. By 2010, China was still producing 14 million tons of soy annually, but consuming 69 million tons. For the nation that domesticated the soybean, the change was dramatic, and it resulted in the restructuring of agriculture in the Western Hemisphere. To meet overseas demand, the United States now has more land in soybeans than wheat. Brazil has more land in soybeans than in all grains combined. And Argentina is fast becoming a soybean monoculture. Today, nearly 60 percent of world soybean exports - almost all from these three countries - go to China.
中国曾经涉足过这里——大豆。 1995年，在那时共产党优先粮食生产，中国生产和消费大豆1400万吨。到2010年，中国的大豆年产量仍然是1400万吨，但消费量达到6900万吨。对于这个生产大豆的国家来说，改变是巨大的，同时也导致西半球的农业结构调整。为满足海外需求，现在美国种植大豆的土地面积多于小麦。巴西种植大豆的土地超过其他所有谷物的总和。阿根廷正在迅速成为一个单一种植大豆的国家。今天，全世界将近60%的大豆出口——几乎全部来自以上三个国家——目的地是中国。
Of course, when selling food to China, the United States is dealing with both an economic competitor and a creditor holding $900 billion worth of U.S. Treasury securities. If China pushes U.S. food prices higher, tensions between the two countries may escalate. An even greater stress may develop between Washington and U.S. consumers, as Americans - who think cheap food is a birthright - are likely to press for restrictions on exports to China. There is precedent for this: In the 1970s, the United States banned exports of soybeans to countries such as Japan to quash domestic food price inflation.
当然，在向中国出售食品时，美国面对的不仅仅是经济上的竞争对手，同时也是持有9000亿美元国债的债权人。如果中国推动美国的食品价格上涨，两国之间的紧张局势可能升级。而更大的压力可能在华盛顿和美国消费者之间蔓延，因为美国人——认为廉价食品是理所当然的——有可能为限制向中国出口而施加压力。这是有先例的：在20世纪70年代，美国为了缓解国内的食品价格上涨，从而禁止向日本出口大豆。
Though withholding food from an emerging superpower could lower domestic food prices, it would be bad diplomacy. Even during the Cold War, the United States exported 10 million tons of wheat - nearly a quarter of the U.S. harvest - to the Soviet Union in 1972 after a crop failure there. Well-fed enemies are more predictable.
尽管禁止向一个新兴的超级大国出口粮食可能降低国内食品价格，但毫无疑问这将是糟糕的外交。即便在冷战时期，即在1972年苏联农作物歉收的时候，美国向苏联出口了1000万吨小麦——接近美国总产量的25%。吃得饱的敌人更可预测。
Would this work today? The Obama administration - or any future administration - faces a choice. If we limit grain sales to China, might the Chinese limit their monthly purchases at Treasury securities auctions? What would happen to farmers who can't sell to the world's largest food market? We can't know how this tension will play out politically, but we do know that our huge deficits of the past 30 years restrict our bargaining power.
现在这项政策仍然可行吗？奥巴马政府——或任何未来的政府——面临着一个选择。如果我们限制粮食出口到中国，中国是否有可能限制每个月的美国国债购买量？农民无法向世界上最大的粮食市场出售农产品将会导致什么样的后果？我们不知道政治上的紧张会到达什么程度，但我们知道，过去30年我们的巨额财政赤字限制了我们的议价能力。
The United States has been the world's breadbasket for more than half a century. Our country has never known food shortages or spiraling food prices. But, like it or not, we will probably have to share our harvest with the Chinese, no matter how much that raises our prices.
美国作为世界的粮仓已超过半世纪。我们的国家从不知道食品短缺或食品价格飙升为何物。但是，不管我们喜欢与否，我们可能要与中国人分享我们的收获，无论这在多大程度上导致我们的食品价格上涨。
Our world is about to change. In the supermarket checkout line, in restaurants and at Federal Reserve meetings, it's hard to imagine that it will be for the better.
我们的世界即将改变。在超市收银台、在饭店和美联储会议上，很难想象它会变得更加美好。 这文章除了题目比较惊悚外，内容也不是一般的无耻，我现在买油都要好好看看是不是加拿大美国的种，就你那变异的DNA食品，咱还真没那勇气吃。具体的数据咱也懒的去找了，大不了我饿死算了。您就别操那么遥远的闲心了，再说你们老是全球打仗，美国人都死完了，谁还吃粮食。 头两段的假设就很扯淡，后面的东西更神奇。
翻译辛苦哈~~~~ 很扯，如果美国人自己不够吃了，完全可以不出口嘛。中国又没强迫你说，即使你吃不饱也必须出口给我 楼主辛苦了。 20年前我们不是写了一片报道《中国人自己养活中国人》吗
哎为什么都是这些人当记者
还是这些人学要这样的报道 美国再不种多点小麦和玉米，全世界的人都要饿死了！Q23) 美国卖给中国的粮食都是转基因作物 就您那转基因食品和疯牛肉还是养活美国人民吧。。。。。。。。。 这太不讲理了，明明是美国先有计划的用貌似强劲的转基因大豆打掉我们的根基，再用廉价的大豆消灭我们残存的自然种植不肯妥协的大豆。现在美国全民种大豆倒成了我们的罪过 真没见过世面，买200万吨大豆是很大的数吗？就养活全中国人了? 这种文章美国人最好一年写他个一千篇一万篇，让美国人都去种粮食，然后囤起来，不卖，等着饿死咱们中国人。同时也能提醒咱中国人，要重视农业，不要买美国的转基因食品。美国人高兴，中国人也高兴。 哎，这篇文章看着不舒服，但说的却是事实，中国的粮食将来如果主要依赖进口的话，对一个大国而言，是非常危险的。 如果,通篇是如果. 作者没长牙！我宁愿饿死也不吃美产转基因粮。饿死是一个人的事，吃转基因粮是无数代的事。 中国的耕地面积逐年减少是不是事实？ 回复 10# 龍十六
国产大豆有政府保护的，不会被廉价打败的！
我担心的是，我们这里这么肥沃的土地，都被建了厂房，我想全国大多数发达一些的区域也是如此啊！ 自大的美国。
首先：不是“美国能够养活中国”而是中国想要买其他国家的粮食，这个“其他国家”并不仅仅是美国，难道整个地球仅仅有美国和邪恶轴心这两个国家吗？
其次：中国想要发展，耕地要缩减这是没办法的事（但不代表可以随便侵占耕地，无计划的烧荒占地是不可行的，红线是一定要存在的），玩过模拟城市的应该对这个有比较清楚的认识：想要高技术产业，想要用晶圆换粮食，必须有所付出，特别在整个地区全都开发完毕的时候。
中国人多，自己的粮食不够吃，这是事实，但是全世界生产粮食的除了美国，还有别人。 美国人真有脸说。 很有意思的一个事：我认识一个人，当过市长的，他的电脑里有模拟城市4000，偶尔玩玩。
我感觉虽然和现实的不太一样，但是感觉总有些东西是相通的。
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