【11.08.07 纽约时报】受民众喜爱的中国总理在党内遭到排挤
【中文标题】受民众喜爱的中国总理在党内遭到排挤
【原文标题】A Premier Popular With People, But Sidelined By The Party
【登载媒体】纽约时报
【原文作者】JONATHAN ANSFIELD、MICHAEL WINES、SHARON LaFRANIERE
【原文链接】http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/world/asia/08china.html?_r=1&ref=china
温家宝总理在7月23日温州附近动车事故现场鞠躬。这次事故由于官方对相关消息的封锁而在中国引起了民众的愤怒。
上个月末，中国总理温家宝站在温州附近动车事故现场的祭奠花圈丛中，承诺政府对灾难的问责会“公开、透明”。他说：“关键是让群众了解事情的真相。”这次事故导致40人丧生。
第二天，国家监察机构禁止新闻媒体对铁路部门的失职和腐败行为的深入报道，然后又开始对激发全国范围愤怒情绪的微博信息进行审查。
截止到上星期，政府的自我审查工作遭到了谴责，被认为是敷衍的、非法的，因为调查小组的成员包括了铁道部的二把手和御用的专家。
这种耻辱已经算不上是新闻了。随着温家宝任职中国排名第三领导人的十年期限即将临近，他似乎在努力抗争，试图进入这个政治体制的核心决策圈。这个体制对他慈祥的公众形象相当有兴趣，但对他的政治理念不屑一顾。
温先生是中国政治自由派的倡导者，据大部分人说，他在意识形态方面已经被共产党的九位政治局常委排除在外。他的观点不止一次被党组织公开或暗中拒绝，他和自己的老板胡锦涛主席之间的裂隙越来越明显。
“温爷爷”对普通人的痛苦感同身受，并且帮助捍卫他们的权力，这位总理自然是中国最受欢迎的政治家。但是在内部，随着共产党强硬派逐渐加强他们对政府的掌控，温先生对政治改革的热衷慢慢削弱了他的影响力。
一位官方媒体的编辑说，他已经变成了一个危险的人物，一家保守派运作的国家广播电台甚至在去年拒绝了他提出与听众现场直接交换意见的要求。一些支持温先生改革理念的自由派人士发现他最终无法在国家领导层中发挥影响力，感到大失所望。
北京一位自由派的法律学者说：“当温在8年前当选总理的时候，人们对他给予很大希望，因为他的讲话总能给人带来希望。但是8年过去了，他的任期即将结束。我们很怀疑他是否真的有能力来推进改革，因为他似乎在对抗党内保守派时没有做出足够令人信服的举动。”
温先生从未被认为具有异常强大的力量。一些研究中国领导层的学者说，他偶尔对民主和人权的呼吁声，实际上与矢志大权独揽的共产党路线完美地契合在一起。
另外一些人在质疑他标新立异的个人形象，说他不是一个改革家，顶多算坏警察堆里的一个好警察。加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校的中国专家Susan Shirk说：“温在国家管理中展示出人性的一面，这样做有很好的效果。另外一种可能性是两面派，他在公众面前主张执政透明，但前提是党的执政地位不可以受到威胁。”
但是，在一个人人秘不露面、缄口不言的领导层中，没有人比温先生更加公开地奋力争取，也没有人比他遭遇过更多的轻蔑回绝。随着明年对新一届政治局委员和中国新一代领导人位置的角逐逐渐拉开序幕，这种现象更加明显了。
温州事件从某种意义上来说就是一个实例。一位与高层官员交好的政治分析人士说，温先生本来没有计划造访事故现场，一位专门监管工作安全的副总理张德江在处理这件事情。
但是，张先生在处理事件过程中，铲土机压碎并掩埋事故车厢的图像，在互联网上引发了全国范围对政府掩盖事故真相的声讨。当时还在人民解放军医院中接受治疗、极少露面的温先生临危受命，被派往温州安抚民众。
温先生直截了当地说他生病住院了——中国领导人鲜见类似表态——然后表达出对真相和正义和呼吁，并且要求调查的“每一步”都要接受群众的监督。国家官方的媒体把温先生的宽宏大量当作继续深挖铁道部渎职行为的通行证。
但是，接下来发生的事情似乎在强调，共产党的宣传部门是怎样凌驾在一位总理对政府行为公开的承诺之上的。中国中央电视台一般都会跟随温先生到每一个事故现场的访问，但是这次，并没有实况播出他的这番讲话，这让一位节目主持人在他的微博上表示抗议。仅仅一天之后，媒体报道的风向集体调转，纷纷祭出主旋律文章，包括对京沪高铁的歌功颂德。
这表示领导内阁性质的国务院的温先生，似乎无法控制国务院的事故调查行动——实际上，甚至连胡主席在掌控中国的领导精英团队时，也遇到了困难。
2008年的时候，温先生和处理动车事故的方式一样。他站在四川地震的废墟上，承诺对建筑质量低劣的学校倒塌事故进行透明的调查，有数千名儿童因此死亡。据媒体报道，当地部署了2500名调查员，但最终没有揭露任何错误的行为。反而是执着追查渎职行为的活动人士，在被关押期间遭到了毒打。
温先生也是狡猾的。2010年4月，胡主席正在巴西访问，温先生在《人民日报》上发表的一篇文章让分析人士大费踌躇。文章盛赞胡耀邦，这位受人喜爱的国家领导人因其改革主义倾向在1987年被迫辞职。1989年，他的死引发了×××。文章中讲述了一则轶事，胡耀邦到贵州参观，温先生帮助安排与村民的会面。他写道，这次会面是暗中进行的，因为胡耀邦不相信当地官员可以让他们自由沟通。
当时，胡锦涛主席是贵州省党委书记。外人或许没有发觉这篇文章隐含的攻击性，但一位与高层有关系的编辑说，胡主席大为不悦。
更多时候，温先生是直言不讳的。去年8月份，他在深圳这个中国市场经济发源地发表讲话时说：“不进行政治改革，中国在经济改革过程中取得的成就将会损失殆尽。”
10月份，他在接受CNN采访时说：“人民对民主和自由的需求愿望是无法阻止的”，中国人应当被允许更自由地批评政府。中国的官方媒体像忽略2008年CNN类似的采访内容一样，对这次采访也置之不理。
但是不久之后，《人民日报》开始发表一个系列有关党纪的5篇评论员文章。据说执笔者是两名国有媒体编辑，策划者是胡主席的智囊团，并且得到了最高领导层的批准。
文章中有一句话相当显眼：“政治改革严重滞后的说法”不仅“不符合客观规律，也不符合客观事实。”
据两位与党内高层官员有关系的记者说，在某次接受CNN采访之后，一位领导以个人的身份警告温先生，在发表与共产党路线不一致的论调时要谨慎。具体警告的强烈程度如何不得而知。
68岁的温先生退休在即，他或许不会在乎这样的批评。实际上，他也许可以通过甄选下一代高层领导人的方式来让自己的志向得以延续。
但是，温先生这种“开心战士”的形象已经让他在公众心目中的位置不再那么稳固了，因为政府的行为一次又一次地违背他的诺言。法律学者何先生说：“越来越多的人在问：‘为什么他答应的事情无法实现？’”
23岁的陈建平有两个朋友在温州动车事故中幸存，他说：“温总理说的话，我只相信一部分。政府不能百分之百履行它的承诺，他说的某些话或许仅仅是为了作秀。”
然而，在一个民众似乎每天都对政府产生更多怀疑的国家里，作秀总比没有任何表态要好一些。
布鲁金斯学会中国领导问题学者李成说：“对国家体系的怀疑态度持上升趋势，我真正担心的是，下一代接班人中是否有像温家宝一样的领导人出现。”
原文：
Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, bowing, at the scene of a deadly July 23 train wreck near Wenzhou. The crash, and subsequent official efforts to suppress information, have stirred anger in China.
BEIJING — China’s prime minister, Wen Jiabao, stood amid funerary wreaths in Wenzhou, near where a high-speed train accident claimed 40 lives late last month, and pledged an “open and transparent” government inquiry into the disaster. “The key,” he said, “is whether the people can get the truth.”
The next day, state censors silenced the news media’s dogged reporting on railway negligence and corruption, then started censoring posts on microblogs that had stoked national outrage over the crash.
By last week, the government inquiry itself was accused of being rigged, run by a panel that included the Railways Ministry’s second in command and loyalist experts.
Such indignities are not new. As Mr. Wen enters the twilight of a decade as China’s third-ranked leader, he appears to be struggling to remain relevant in a political system that covets his benevolent public image but has little use for his ideas.
The leading spokesman for what passes for political liberalism in China, Mr. Wen is by most accounts ideologically isolated on the Communist Party’s nine-member Politburo standing committee. More than once, his views have been rebuffed, tacitly or openly, in party organs. There are tantalizing suggestions of rifts with his boss, President Hu Jintao.
“Grandpa Wen,” the prime minister who shares the common man’s pain and champions his interests, is easily China’s most popular politician. But internally, as Communist Party hard-liners strengthen their control of government, his advocacy of political reform has increasingly sapped his influence.
He has become such a high-risk figure, one official news media editor says, that a conservative-led state radio network last year balked at his offer of an exclusive exchange with listeners on the air. Even liberals who support Mr. Wen’s reformist oratory find themselves disillusioned by his failure to gain traction within the leadership.
“When Wen became premier eight years ago, people had high hopes because his speeches always leave people hopeful,” said He Weifang, a liberal Beijing legal scholar. “But now it has been eight years. His term is coming to an end. It’s doubtful whether he genuinely has the strong will to reform, because it doesn’t seem he has taken enough convincing actions to resist the conservatives.”
Mr. Wen has never been seen as especially strong. Some scholars of China’s leadership say his unspecific calls for democracy and people power actually fit comfortably within a Communist Party committed to absolute rule.
Others question his maverick credentials, calling him less a reformer than the good cop in a bad-cop system. “Wen’s become the human face of the administration, and he’s been very effective,” said Susan Shirk, a longtime China expert at the University of California, San Diego. “The other possibility is that Wen Jiabao has two faces. He advocates transparency in his public statements, but only insofar as it doesn’t threaten the authority of the party.”
But in a mostly faceless and closed-mouth leadership, no one strains so publicly at his tethers — or suffers as many rebuffs — as Mr. Wen. That pattern has intensified as jockeying begins for next year’s choices of a new politburo and the next generation of China’s top leaders.
The Wenzhou episode is in some ways a template. One political analyst close to senior officials said Mr. Wen had not planned to visit the disaster scene; a deputy prime minister who oversees work safety, Zhang Dejiang, was to handle the matter.
But with Mr. Zhang in charge, backhoes crushed and buried a wrecked train car at the site — and provoked a national outcry from bloggers who accused the government of a cover-up. Mr. Wen, then in a People’s Liberation Army hospital and limited to occasional appearances, was sent to Wenzhou to soothe the masses.
Mr. Wen pointedly mentioned that he had been sick — a rare disclosure for a leader — then delivered a call for truth, justice and an inquiry that was open at “every step” to public supervision. The official state media took Mr. Wen’s broadside as a pass to keep digging into Railways Ministry incompetence.
But the event underscored how the Communist Party’s Propaganda Department trumps a prime minister’s pledge of openness. China’s national CCTV network, which normally trails Mr. Wen to every disaster scene, did not broadcast his remarks live, prompting one anchor to protest on his microblog. Within a day, press coverage backflipped to cheery articles like a paean to the new Beijing-Shanghai high-speed line.
And it showed that Mr. Wen, who leads the cabinetlike State Council, has trouble controlling a State Council investigation — indeed, not even President Hu controls China’s fractured ruling elite.
As he did after the train accident, Mr. Wen stood in the rubble of the Sichuan Province earthquake in 2008 and promised a transparent investigation into the collapses of shoddily built schools that killed thousands of children. The press reported that 2,500 investigators were deployed. But no wrongdoing was ever disclosed — instead, several activists who pursued malfeasance wound up in detention.
Mr. Wen can be crafty. In April 2010, analysts puzzled over a People’s Daily essay by him — published while President Hu was in Brazil — extolling Hu Yaobang, the popular leader forced to resign in 1987 for his reformist bent and whose death, in 1989, helped propel the Tiananmen Square protests. One anecdote described a Hu Yaobang visit that Mr. Wen arranged with Guizhou Province villagers — secretly, he wrote, because Hu Yaobang did not trust local leaders to let them speak freely.
President Hu was the Guizhou party chief during that visit. Outsiders largely missed the article’s implicit jab — but President Hu was mightily displeased, said an editor with high official connections.
More often, Mr. Wen is blunt. In a speech last August in Shenzhen, the birthplace of China’s market-oriented reforms, he warned that “without political reform, China may lose what it has already achieved through economic restructuring.”
He followed in October by telling CNN that “the people’s wishes for and needs for democracy and freedom are irresistible” and that Chinese should be permitted to criticize the government more freely. The state press, which ignored a similar CNN interview in 2008, ignored this one as well.
But shortly afterward, People’s Daily began publishing a five-editorial series on party discipline, which was said by two state media editors to have been orchestrated by President Hu’s leading strategists and approved by top leadership.
A sentence in one stood out: “The notion that political reform has seriously lagged” is not only “contrary to objective laws, but also inconsistent with objective facts.”
At least once after the CNN appearance, two journalists close to senior party officials said, members of the leadership personally, although how strongly was unclear, warned Mr. Wen about making statements that appeared out of tune with the Communist Party line.
At 68, with retirement in sight, Mr. Wen may not care about such slaps on the wrist. In fact, he might gain a voice in shaping the next class of upper-echelon leaders.
But Mr. Wen’s happy-warrior persona also shows signs of tarnishing his standing with the masses, as government action consistently falls short of his promises. “More people are starting to ask, ‘Why don’t these words come true?’ ” said Mr. He, the legal scholar.
Chen Jianping, 23, a friend of two of Wenzhou train-crash survivors, said “I only believe part of what Premier Wen said. The government is unable to carry out everything it promises; some of what he says may be just show.”
Yet in a China that seems more suspicious of authority almost daily, a show may be better than nothing.
“The cynicism about the system is rising,” said Cheng Li, a Brookings Institution scholar of the Chinese leadership. “My real worry is whether the next generation will have a Wen Jiabao-like leader.”
外国人 真热心分析这类真相只有他们自己知道的 他们说中国人有三十六计，所以中国人很奸诈，实际上他们为了利益，更是卑劣，无所不用其极， 惊讶，美国总统奥巴马居然是中国国安局特工，奉命潜伏美国，代号观海。 看来如果不是忽悠，也是能力有限了！难啊！
一荣俱荣，一损俱损！动得了谁？ 梦淫吧 {:soso_e120:}我们在中国国内，都无法知道的问题，他们竟然知道.... 的确是有许多的承诺没能兑现，如果把ZF大员进一步年轻化，前进的步子肯定要快。。。 fionasail 发表于 2011-8-9 13:24 static/image/common/back.gif
惊讶，美国总统奥巴马居然是中国国安局特工，奉命潜伏美国，代号观海。
观海同志………… 本帖最后由 江南 于 2011-8-9 15:46 编辑
现在的物价，房价的管理，温是不及格的。
要不李克强怎么提前一年多开始接手工作？知道这一大坨，擦屁股的工作不好干。 唉，胡温太温了。 看来所谓胡温新政只是个传说 江南 发表于 2011-8-9 15:45 static/image/common/back.gif
现在的物价，房价的管理，温是不及格的。
要不李克强怎么提前一年多开始接手工作？知道这一大坨，擦屁股的 ...
请不要过早下定论，李好像是胡温举荐的，并不符合下任的意愿。 媒体没什么本事，就剩忽悠了 牢记党的宗旨，全心全意为人民服务。 mummy 发表于 2011-8-9 21:55 static/image/common/back.gif
请不要过早下定论，李好像是胡温举荐的，并不符合下任的意愿。
胡举荐的和胡温举荐的是两码事吧？胡在团中央工作的时候了解了李的能力，所以推荐李，很正常的事情。 :L这些个自由人士砖家比温总理还了解温总理的处境，果然是先进的自由（想象）国家呀！ 之前不是说咱们的总理是“中国影帝”么，怎么看完这篇文章却成了中国最伟大的人了 都市困兽 发表于 2011-8-10 09:18 static/image/common/back.gif
之前不是说咱们的总理是“中国影帝”么，怎么看完这篇文章却成了中国最伟大的人了 ...
影帝也很无奈啊，出了事他得去赔不是，然后被人骂，在内部还说不上话，里外不是人 分析的不错
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