8月7日美国《新闻周刊》网站：在中国人眼中，美国彻底输了
http://www.thedailybeast.com/content/newsweek/2011/08/07/china-s-view-of-the-debt-debate-america-in-decline/_jcr_content/body/inlineimage.img.jpg/1312679141503.jpghttp://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2011-08/10/c_121838900.htm
【美国《新闻周刊》网站8月7日文章】题：债务纷争：中国的观点(作者尼尔·弗格森)
在华盛顿看来，提高联邦债务上限法案的通过是民主制度的胜利。
在北京看来，情况则完全不同。中共一直认为，西方的民主制度是一种把混乱制度化的体制，所有心智正常的亚洲人都不希望出现这种局面。我们所做的一切都使中共的这一立场变得更加坚定。
我的一个中国朋友问我，联邦债务中有多少是政府自己欠自己的？我不得不估算了一下。答案是将近三分之一，因为社会保障信托基金等各种机构是美国国债的主要持有者。
他想了一下，然后说：“那么，国会只是投票赞成不拖欠政府自己欠自己的债务喽？”我不得不承认他这么说是对的。
他又问：“联邦债务中有多少是政府欠美国民众的？”我还得估算一下，答案是政府欠美国公民以及管理他们存款的银行和养老金基金的债务在联邦债务中刚刚超过三分之一。“那么民众的意愿就是，最好不要拖欠政府欠民众的债务是吗？”我无法否认。
喜欢算术的读者现在可以接着问下去：联邦债务中有多少是欠外国人的？答案是不到三分之一。如果把政府自己欠自己的那部分刨除，那么这一比例是46%———将近一半。不过，我的中国朋友不需要由我来告诉他这件事。中国的每个人都知道，美国欠全世界的钱，而中国是头号债主。
当你意识到我们的头号债主是如何解读议员们的古怪行为时，这件事便具有了新的重要意义。正如北京所认为的那样，过去三个月里所发生的事情更加充分地证明了———不论美国评级机构如何表态———美国都不再有信誉。即便国会使美国离开了彻底违约的边缘，但中国的许多人认为，美国的债务协议顶多是一个权宜之计。
新华社说，这份在最后关头达成的协议并没有一劳永逸地拆除华盛顿债务炸弹的引信，只是把引信延长，从而拖延爆炸的时间。与此同时，美联储的言下之意就是通过“量化宽松”使美元贬值，翻译成汉语就是“印钞票”。
因此，中国人跟这件事有很大的利害关系。而且，他们在美国债务问题上的风险敞口还在不断加大。为了防止他们所持有的美元进一步贬值，他们别无选择，只能继续购买更多的以美元计价的债券。这样的战略非常适合他们的出口商，因为这使得他们的商品保持了在美国市场的竞争力。然而，如果上周通过的债务协议导致美国经济增速进一步下滑怎么办？后果可就不大妙了。
当然，中国也有自己的经济问题，但它们是一个崛起大国的问题。在北京看来，美国的问题完全是一个衰落大国的问题。我们上周不仅提高了债务上限，在中国人的眼中，我们也彻底输了。
http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/08/07/china-s-view-of-the-debt-debate-america-in-decline.html
Debt Debate: China's View
Whatever the rating agencies say, many in China believe the U.S. is no longer creditworthy.
Aug 7, 2011 10:00 AM EDT
Illustration by Edel Rodriguez
Xian, China—viewed from inside the Beltway, the passage of legislation to raise the federal debt ceiling was a triumph for democracy.
“The push and pull Americans saw in Washington these past few weeks…was the will of the people working itself out,” declared Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate. The appearance of Gabrielle Giffords to vote for the bill raised not just the ceiling but also the roof.
Viewed from Beijing, it looked very different. Indeed, it’s hard to imagine what more we could have done to vindicate the Chinese Communist Party’s position that Western democracy is a form of institutionalized chaos to be avoided by all sane Asians.
One of my friends from China asked me how much of the federal debt was owed by the government to itself. I had to check. The answer is just less than a third, since various agencies like the Social Security Trust Fund are major holders of U.S. Treasuries.
“So,” he mused, “Congress just voted not to default on the debt the government owes itself?” I had to admit that was correct. “And how much of the federal debt is owed by the government to the American people?” More checking. The answer is that just more than a third is owed to U.S. citizens and the banks and pension funds that manage their savings.
“So the will of the people was that it would be better not to default on the government’s debt to…the people?” I couldn’t deny it.
Readers who enjoy arithmetic can now answer a further question: what proportion of the federal debt is owed to foreigners? The answer is just less than a third. If you exclude the part of the debt the government owes to itself, the figure is 46 percent—nearly half. But my Chinese friend didn’t need me to tell him that. Everyone here knows that the United States is in hock to the rest of the world and that China is its No. 1 creditor.
According to official figures, mainland China holds $1.1 trillion in U.S.-government debt instruments. But it’s an open secret that the Chinese authorities also like to buy Treasuries via intermediaries in London, Hong Kong, and elsewhere. Add the U.K. and Hong Kong figures and the total is closer to $1.6 trillion—about 17 percent of the federal debt in public hands. And if you include nongovernmental securities held in China’s international reserves, the U.S. debt to China rises to more than $2 trillion.
The antics of American legislators take on a new significance when you realize how our leading creditor interprets them. As Beijing sees it, the last three months have furnished ample evidence that—regardless of what the American rating agencies may say—the United States is no longer creditworthy. Even if Congress has pulled back from the brink of outright default, many in China view the debt deal as at best a temporary fix. As the Xinhua News Agency put it, the 11th-hour deal has “failed to defuse Washington’s debt bomb for good, only delaying an immediate detonation by making the fuse an inch longer.” Meanwhile, the unspoken intention of the Federal Reserve is to debase the dollar through “quantitative easing,” which translates into Mandarin as “printing money.” (It’s no accident that one of the bestselling economics books in China is called Currency Wars.)
So the Chinese have skin in this game. And their U.S. exposure doesn’t stop there. In order to prevent devaluation of their dollars, they have no option but to keep buying yet more dollar-denominated securities. That strategy suits their exporters fine, since it keeps their goods competitive in the American market. But what if the effect of last week’s debt deal, which mandates deficit reduction of $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years, causes a further slowdown in U.S. growth? Not so good.
China has its own economic problems, to be sure. But they are the problems of a rising power. From Beijing’s standpoint, America’s problems are plainly those of a power in decline. We didn’t just raise a ceiling last week. In Chinese eyes, we also fell through a floor. 历史上没有永远的强国。
美国人会习惯的！ 在中国人的眼中，我们也彻底输了。
We didn’t just raise a ceiling last week. In Chinese eyes, we also fell through a floor.
在中国人的眼中，我们也彻底输了。 :o:o:o 美国人的几巴硬挺得太久，是时候让他疲软了！ 吴钩1 发表于 2011-8-11 00:57 static/image/common/back.gif
美国人的几巴硬挺得太久，是时候让他疲软了！
大哥看了《阳痿美国》吧？ 美国其实有大把的明白人。 coldwarj 发表于 2011-8-11 10:38 static/image/common/back.gif
大哥看了《阳痿美国》吧？
是的，李敖这个书不错！ 吴钩1 发表于 2011-8-11 00:57 static/image/common/back.gif
美国人的几巴硬挺得太久，是时候让他疲软了！
四月 有不少 异性的，专业术语 还请 尽量少用。o3O78) 美国输了，我们赢了吗？赢在哪儿？ 吴钩1 发表于 2011-8-11 11:17 static/image/common/back.gif
是的，李敖这个书不错！
同道中人啊:handshake: {:soso_e160:} 美国输了，谁赢了呢。 第九时间 发表于 2011-8-11 12:06 static/image/common/back.gif
美国输了，我们赢了吗？赢在哪儿？
共输而已。因为中国现在还没有找到很好的办法应对！中国还是希望美国支持久一点，其实也是在帮中国争取时间。 新闻周刊分析的不错。美国这个是制度上的问题，不只是说美国这个国家输了，其实是美国所代表的资本主义制度不行了。无能为力挽回经济衰退的局势了。这是一种制度的衰落。 除了华盛顿那些家伙之外，这个地球上有多少人会认为这一回美国赢了吗？ chrisyqw 发表于 2011-8-11 13:06 static/image/common/back.gif
美国输了，谁赢了呢。
韩国，印度，还有台湾 Jigong 发表于 2011-8-10 16:28 static/image/common/back.gif
历史上没有永远的强国。
美国人会习惯的！
美国人不习惯坐在后排的~要习惯很久 本帖最后由 luparma 于 2011-8-11 22:43 编辑
腿毛抽筋 发表于 2011-8-11 21:13 static/image/common/back.gif
韩国，印度，还有台湾
亚洲三宝{:soso_e113:} ，过去、现在、未来统统搞定，其他人一边凉快去吧。
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