【11.08.07 新闻周刊】国债之争：中国的观点
【中文标题】国债之争：中国的观点
【原文标题】Debt Debate: China's View
【登载媒体】新闻周刊
【原文作者】Niall Ferguson
【原文链接】http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/08/07/china-s-view-of-the-debt-debate-america-in-decline.html
在华盛顿内部人看来，立法提高联邦债务上限是民主党的一次胜利。
参议员共和党领袖Mitch McConnell宣称：“华盛顿内部这几个星期以来的拉锯现象……是参与其中的民众们自己的愿望。”最终对此提案投票的Gabrielle Giffords让债务上限不仅提高到天花板，甚至还爬上了房顶。
在北京看来，情况完全不是这样。实际上，现在很难想象我们能做些什么来扭转共产党的观点，他们认为西方的民主制度就是一个制度化了的混乱局面，理智的亚洲人避之唯恐不及。
我的一位中国朋友问我，联邦债务中有多少是政府自己欠自己的。我得去查一查。结果是不到三分之一，因为很多像社保信托资金这样的机构都是美国财政部的大股东。
他想了想，说：“那么，议会投票的结果是不会拖欠政府对自身的欠债？”我不得不承认是这样的。他又问：“联邦债务中有多少是政府欠美国人民的？”我又查了查，结果是有三分之一多一点的债权人是美国公民和管理他们的储蓄的银行和基金机构。
“那么，人民的意愿是最好不要拖欠政府对人民的债务？”我无法否认这一点。
喜欢算数的读者可以考虑更进一步的问题：联邦债务中有多少是欠外国人的？答案是不到三分之一。如果排除掉政府欠自身的债务，这个数字是46％，将近一半。但是我的中国朋友不需要这么详细的说明，所有人都知道美国欠全世界一屁股债，中国是头号债主。
据官方统计，中国大陆持有没有政府1.1万亿的债券。公开的秘密是，中国当局还喜欢通过伦敦、香港和其它地方的中介机构购买政府债券。加上英国和香港的数字，总债金额将近1.6万亿美元——大约是美国民众手中联邦债务的17％。如果再加上中国国际储备中的非政府债券，美国欠中国的总债务超过2万亿美元。
当你明白我们的大债主如何看待这件事的时候，美国立法委员会滑稽可笑的作为就又产生了另外一层重大的意义。在北京看来，前三个月发生的事情积累了大量的证据，无论评级机构怎样说，美国都不再值得相信了。即使议会已经把我们从崩溃的边缘拉回来，但是很多中国人认为，这样的决策顶多算是一个临时的权衡方案。就像新华社所报道的，长达11个小时的多方协商“并没有彻底拆除华盛顿的债务炸弹，仅仅是把引线延长了1英寸，让迫在眉睫的爆炸延迟那么一小会。”与此同时，联邦储备委员会背后的意图是通过“量化宽松”政策让美元继续贬值。翻译成中文，这句话的意思就是“印钞”。（并非偶然，中国销量最好的一本经济学书籍就是《货币战争》。）
所以，中国目前还算衣着光鲜地站在那里，而美国所面临的不仅仅是赤身裸体的问题。为了避免手中购入美元价值不再缩水，他们别无选择，只能继续购入以美元计价的债券。这样的策略其实与出口商的利益是一致的，因为这让他们的产品在美国市场上继续保持竞争力。但是，如果上周让未来10年减少2.1万亿美元赤字的的债务决意，让美国经济进一步下滑，结果恐怕就不那么好了。
中国当然有其自身的问题，但那都是超级势力崛起过程中遇到的常规问题。从北京的角度来看，美国的问题纯粹是超级势力衰败的迹象。我们在上周不仅仅是突破了天花板，在中国人看来，我们同时也掉进了地板上的漏洞。
原文：
Xian, China—viewed from inside the Beltway, the passage of legislation to raise the federal debt ceiling was a triumph for democracy.
“The push and pull Americans saw in Washington these past few weeks…was the will of the people working itself out,” declared Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate. The appearance of Gabrielle Giffords to vote for the bill raised not just the ceiling but also the roof.
Viewed from Beijing, it looked very different. Indeed, it’s hard to imagine what more we could have done to vindicate the Chinese Communist Party’s position that Western democracy is a form of institutionalized chaos to be avoided by all sane Asians.
One of my friends from China asked me how much of the federal debt was owed by the government to itself. I had to check. The answer is just less than a third, since various agencies like the Social Security Trust Fund are major holders of U.S. Treasuries.
“So,” he mused, “Congress just voted not to default on the debt the government owes itself?” I had to admit that was correct. “And how much of the federal debt is owed by the government to the American people?” More checking. The answer is that just more than a third is owed to U.S. citizens and the banks and pension funds that manage their savings.
“So the will of the people was that it would be better not to default on the government’s debt to…the people?” I couldn’t deny it.
Readers who enjoy arithmetic can now answer a further question: what proportion of the federal debt is owed to foreigners? The answer is just less than a third. If you exclude the part of the debt the government owes to itself, the figure is 46 percent—nearly half. But my Chinese friend didn’t need me to tell him that. Everyone here knows that the United States is in hock to the rest of the world and that China is its No. 1 creditor.
According to official figures, mainland China holds $1.1 trillion in U.S.-government debt instruments. But it’s an open secret that the Chinese authorities also like to buy Treasuries via intermediaries in London, Hong Kong, and elsewhere. Add the U.K. and Hong Kong figures and the total is closer to $1.6 trillion—about 17 percent of the federal debt in public hands. And if you include nongovernmental securities held in China’s international reserves, the U.S. debt to China rises to more than $2 trillion.
The antics of American legislators take on a new significance when you realize how our leading creditor interprets them. As Beijing sees it, the last three months have furnished ample evidence that—regardless of what the American rating agencies may say—the United States is no longer creditworthy. Even if Congress has pulled back from the brink of outright default, many in China view the debt deal as at best a temporary fix. As the Xinhua News Agency put it, the 11th-hour deal has “failed to defuse Washington’s debt bomb for good, only delaying an immediate detonation by making the fuse an inch longer.” Meanwhile, the unspoken intention of the Federal Reserve is to debase the dollar through “quantitative easing,” which translates into Mandarin as “printing money.” (It’s no accident that one of the bestselling economics books in China is called Currency Wars.)
So the Chinese have skin in this game. And their U.S. exposure doesn’t stop there. In order to prevent devaluation of their dollars, they have no option but to keep buying yet more dollar-denominated securities. That strategy suits their exporters fine, since it keeps their goods competitive in the American market. But what if the effect of last week’s debt deal, which mandates deficit reduction of $2.1 trillion over the next 10 years, causes a further slowdown in U.S. growth? Not so good.
China has its own economic problems, to be sure. But they are the problems of a rising power. From Beijing’s standpoint, America’s problems are plainly those of a power in decline. We didn’t just raise a ceiling last week. In Chinese eyes, we also fell through a floor.
美国不会就这么甘心衰落了 债务上限不仅提高到天花板，甚至还爬上了房顶 楼主辛苦了。 好帖 516265258 发表于 2011-8-15 14:22 static/image/common/back.gif
美国不会就这么甘心衰落了
只要世界只有美元，美国永远强大，人家只需打开印钞机 美国应该削减军费开支。 谢谢分享 美国现在是欲罢不能啊 firetheworld 发表于 2011-8-16 16:33 static/image/common/back.gif
只要世界只有美元，美国永远强大，人家只需打开印钞机
就因为总印钞 美元地位才会不保 别的国家不都是傻子 只是暂时没有更好的途径而且美元不会一下子就垮 但估计谁都不会闲着的 一定都在想对策 慢慢看吧
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