【华盛顿邮报110915】中国如何为欧债买单
【中文标题】中国如何帮助欧洲摆脱债务危机？【原文标题】How China can help Europe get out of debt
【登载媒体】华盛顿邮报
【来源地址】http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-china-can-help-europe-get-out-of-debt/2011/09/14/gIQA1WIxSK_story.html
【译 者】我思我走
【翻译方式】人工
【声 明】本翻译供Anti-CNN使用，未经AC或译者许可，不得转载。
【译 文】
The European crisis is no longer a European crisis. It has morphed into something that could easily engulf the global economy. Because of its size, because it involves governments and not just banks, and because it comes at a moment of great weakness, this crisis is more dangerous than the one posed by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which filed for bankruptcy three years ago this week.
欧债危机已经不再仅仅是欧洲的危机了。它已经演变为一场可以轻易席卷全球经济的力量。因为它的规模是如此之大，不仅仅只和银行相关，更牵扯到了政府，本周的这场危机产生于大衰落时期，比发生于三年前的雷曼兄弟倒闭还要严重。
The real problem is Italy, not Greece. Greece is a nano-state, representing 2 percent of the European Union’s gross domestic product. Italy is a G-7 country. Italy’s debt is 1.9 trillion euros, or 120 percent of its economy and greater than the debts of Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece combined. Italy’s bonds are trading at 4 percent more than those of Germany, unprecedented in the euro’s history and unsustainable. Italy is too big to fail but might also be too big to bail.
真正的问题是意大利而不是希腊。希腊是个小国家，其GDP只占欧洲的2%，而意大利是G7成员国。意大利的债务已经1.9万亿欧元，是其经济总量的120%，比西班牙、葡萄牙、爱尔兰和希腊加起来的债务都要多。意大利的债券交易比德国多出了4%，在欧元历史上是前所未有，也是不可持续的。意大利太大而不能倒下，或许是因为太大而必须保住它。
Some have called for the creation of “euro bonds,” which would be a way for Germany to guarantee the debt of Italy, Spain, Greece and other troubled countries. On paper, it is an elegant solution. But it will never happen. Consider: The German people and government are adamantly opposed. Germany’s high court ruled that it is probably unconstitutional. The minute such bonds are floated, Italy, Greece and the others would lose all incentive to make painful reforms; they could borrow all the money they need at German-subsidized rates, so why go through the dreary work of restructuring? The Germans know this — hence their opposition.
有人呼吁“欧元债券”来使德国保证意大利、西班牙、希腊以及其他受困国家的债务。理论上讲，这是一个完美的解决之道，但这却没有现实意义。要注意的是德国政府和人民坚决反对。德国最高法院宣布这极有可能违宪。当这些债券变成浮息债券（债券的票面息率与市场利率挂钩），意大利、希腊和其他国家将丧失开展痛苦改革的动机；如果以目前的低利率可以从德国借到任何他们所需要的钱，那么还要进行艰苦的重建工作？德国人知道这一点，因此坚决反对。
Similarly, the idea of coordinating taxation and expenditures from Brussels looks good on paper but will never happen. Governments will never give away core functions such as taxation. There is widespread opposition to ceding these powers to a European bureaucracy, and the courts of many countries would probably rule it a constitutional violation. Even if these obstacles could be overcome, it would take a decade to determine whether a tighter fiscal union was actually happening. Markets need to be reassured now.
同样的，布鲁塞尔调节税收和支出的想法，理论上很完美，同样无法实现。政府永远不会把税收这样的核心功能假手他人，而且关于放弃权力将其统一到欧洲政府的观点也遭到普遍反对，许多国家的法院很可能将此视为违宪。即使这些障碍都可以克服，讨论是否建立一个从紧的财政联盟都要花上十年。市场瞬息万变，需要马上决定。
Facing a similar crisis in 2008, then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson talked about the need for a bazooka, a weapon large enough to scare markets into submission. Europe doesn’t have one. Even Germany — which has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 83 percent — can’t credibly bail out Italy and Spain. Together they need to roll over 600 billion euros of debt before the end of next year. Who has that kind of money?
面对类似.08年的金融危机时，时任美国财长保尔森谈及需要一个火箭筒，即一个重型武器来震慑市场。可惜欧洲没有。即使是德国，在债务占GDP比重87%的情况下，都无法将意大利和西班牙拽出深渊。他们到明年年底延缓支付6000亿欧元债务。谁那么有钱？
Today, $10 trillion of foreign exchange reserves are sitting around across the globe. That is the only pile of money large enough from which a bazooka could be fashioned. The International Monetary Fund could go to the leading holders of such reserves — China, Japan, Brazil, Saudi Arabia — and ask for a $750 billion line of credit. The IMF would then extend that credit to Italy and Spain but insist on closely monitoring economic reforms, granting funds only as restructuring occurs. That credit line would more than cover the borrowing costs of both countries for two years. The IMF terms would ensure that Italy and Spain remained under pressure to reform and set up conditions for growth.
现在，有10万亿美元的外汇储备在全球范围闲置。这是唯一足额能够制造火箭筒的钱。国际货币基金组织可向中国、日本、巴西、沙特阿拉伯这些巨额外汇持有国申请750亿美元作为信用贷款的最高限额。然后国际货币基金组织把这些贷款带给意大利和西班牙，同时紧盯其经济改革，保证基金用来完成重建。该信用额度将超过两国两年的信贷总成本。IMF在此期间将会确保意大利和西班牙在压力之下进行改革，并为经济增长创造条件。
What’s in it for the Chinese, who would have to devote at least half the funds and who have already politely demurred when approached by the Italians? China invests its foreign exchange reserves looking for liquidity, security and decent returns. It isn’t trying to save the world. Premier Wen Jiabao made slightly encouraging noises this week, hinting that he would increase bond purchases and asking in return for greater market access to Europe. That’s classic Chinese diplomacy: cautious, incremental and narrowly focused on its interests.
中国将在其中发挥多大作用呢？谁将为这个基金至少贡献一半的钱，谁已经在意大利着手处理时委婉地提出异议呢？中国外汇储备投资立足于流动性、安全性和高回报。它并不准备拯救世界。中国总理温家宝这周发出了略有鼓励性的声音，暗示中国将增持债券，并要求以欧洲市场的更大准入作为回报。这就是经典的中国外交：小心谨慎、循序渐进，狭隘地只注重自己的利益。
The time has come for China to adopt a broader concept of its interests and become a “responsible stakeholder” in the global system. The European crisis will quickly morph into a global one, possibly a second global recession. And a second recession would be worse because governments no longer have any monetary or fiscal tools. China would lose greatly in such a scenario because its consumers in Europe and America would stop spending.
已经是时候让中国采取更开放的观念而不仅仅局限在自己的利益上，在全球体系中成为一个“负责任的利益相关者”。欧洲的危机将很快演变成全球危机，很可能导致第二次全球衰退。而这第二次全球衰退将会更加严重，因为各国政府不再拥有货币和财政工具。中国在这个境况之下也会更加危险，因为在欧洲和美国消费者将不再购买这些商品。
Of course, China would have to get something in return for its generosity. This could be the spur to giving China a much larger say at the IMF. In fact, it might be necessary to make clear that Christine Lagarde would be the last non-Chinese head of the organization.
In a world awash in debt, power shifts to creditors. After World War I, European nations were battered by debts, and Germany was battered by reparation payments. The only country that could provide credit was the United States. For America, providing desperately needed cash to Europe was its entry into the councils of power, a process that ultimately brought a powerful new player inside the global tent. Today’s crisis is China’s opportunity to become a “responsible stakeholder.”
当然，中国将会因其慷慨付出而有所回报。这将促使中国在IMF有更大的发言权，实际上有可能必须做出明确让步，克里斯汀哪·拉加德成为国际货币基金组织最后一任非中国人的总裁。
在一个债务泛滥的世界，权力转移到债权人手中。一战后，欧洲国家被债务击溃，德国因为支付战争赔款而崩溃。当时唯一可以提供信用贷款的就是美国。对美国而言，为欧洲提供其迫切需要的贷款使其进入世界权力的中心。这一进程最终让一个拥有权力的选手进入世界赛场。今日的危机就是中国成为“负责任的利益相关者”的机会。
忽悠，继续忽悠，只要中国出钱就让你当世界领袖，温宝宝当联合国总理！ 本帖最后由 lyycc 于 2011-9-20 11:56 编辑
这是多么大义凛然慷慨陈词的要挟哦 :P:P:P {:soso__11177562841248508795_3:} {:soso__15755053191000725107_2:} 呸！ 这是多么大义凛然慷慨陈词的要挟哦 我现在一看到西方人要求中国做一个“负责任的大国”就明白又要中国掏腰包了。
当然，西方人永远不会主动提出让中国做一个“有国际权力的大国”。
责任和权力永远不对等。 从这篇文章都可以严重看出标准不一致，德国不救就没有问题，中国就有问题。 德国不救自己的欧元是因为违宪，
中国不救100年前杀人放火的强盗就是狭隘的自私，
这逻辑刚刚的。
当然模棱两可的诱人的胡萝卜也有：进入世界权力的中心！ 军售和市场歧视仍然存在的条件下如何拿得出钱来？ 一个imf的份额+总裁位置，就要数百亿美元来买？
这个生意，还真是想做梦啊？ 说了这么多，就是要唱空欧元，打击RMB。不过美元也好不到哪里去。 一战后的情况和现在完全不同，居然让中国现在去救欧元，明显是陷阱。不过由此也可以看出，美国自身经济状况也很差，无法拉高美元，只能寄希望于做空欧元，中国一定要严格控制资本外流，把华尔街资本和各路热钱锁在国内。 还是承认中国的完全市场经济地位这个更实在 欧洲都去死吧
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