【彭博通讯社111017】不可能的任务——中国经济软着陆
本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2011-10-18 17:06 编辑【中文标题】不可能的任务——中国经济软着陆
【原文标题】Roubini Says Soft Landing in China Is a ‘Mission Impossible’
【登载媒体】Bloomberg
【来源地址】http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-17/roubini-says-soft-landing-in-china-is-a-mission-impossible-.html
【译 者】 大眼睛同学
【翻译方式】 人工
【声 明】 欢迎转载，请务必注明译者和出处 bbs.m4.cn。
【译 文】
China’s efforts to prop up economic growth won’t help it escape the hard landing that will probably arrive in 2013 or 2014, said Nouriel Roubini, chairman and co- founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC.
鲁比尼全球经济有限责任公司董事长兼联合创始人鲁里埃尔•鲁比尼认为，中国努力支撑经济增长的方式无法帮助它逃脱“硬着陆”的命运，这一切可能会在2013年或2014年间显现。
The prospect of a soft landing in China is a “mission impossible,” Roubini said at a seminar in Helsinki today organized by Evli Bank Oyj. Over-investment “always” leads to a hard landing, he said.
今天,鲁比尼在某银行举办的研讨会上表示：在中国期望的经济软着陆的前景是一个“不可能完成的任务”，他们过度投资终将导致硬着陆局面的出现。
Policy makers will “do anything possible” to keep growth in national output at rates above 8 percent and ensure a “delicate” political transition isn’t hampered by an economic downturn, Roubini said.
鲁比尼还说，决策者将不遗余力的保持全国产量稳定在8％以上的增速，通过确保一个“微妙”的政治过渡，避免经济不景气带来的负面影响。
Growth in China’s economy probably slowed to an annual 9.3 percent in the third quarter from 9.5 percent in the three months through June, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Officials in the world’s second largest economy will do what they can to “front-load” growth, pushing the risks associated with overheating out in the future, Roubini said.
彭博通讯社的调查的分析显示，中国第三季度的经济增长可能由3月到6月的9.5％放缓至9.3％，鲁比尼强调，作为世界第二大经济体的官员，他们可以以“前期负荷”的增长，推动在未来与经济过热相关的风险。
Managing the economic downshift would fall to the Communist Party’s next leaders, as President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao begin their transition from power late next year. A successor to Hu is scheduled to be picked at a conclave of Communist Party leaders late in 2012, with Hu and Wen stepping down from their government posts in March 2013.
这次调控管理经济的重任落到了到共产党未来的领导人身上。
Lu Zhongyuan, deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center, said at a briefing in Beijing last month that growth in the next five years will probably exceed 8 percent.
上个月，国务院发展研究中心副主任卢中原说，中国在未来五年的增长率可能会超过8％。
Roubini Predictions 鲁比尼的预言
Roubini, who predicted the U.S. housing bubble while failing to foresee a rebound in global stocks in 2009, also warned there is a high probability of a recession spreading through the world’s advanced economies as the fallout of Europe’s debt crisis chokes recovery prospects in the U.S.
鲁比尼曾经成功预言了美国的房地产泡沫，却未能预见2009年全球股市的反弹。但他仍警告说，此次通过世界先进经济体蔓延的欧洲债务危机，可能会遏制美国的经济复苏。
Europe shouldn’t count on much help from China, Roubini said. China’s discussion on supporting Europe is little more than “cheap talk,” he said. The government in Beijing “doesn’t really mean” it will help euro area nations struggling to emerge from the region’s debt crisis, he said.
鲁比尼坚持认为，欧洲不应该指望自己能从中国获得什么帮助，有关中国支持欧洲的讨论实在是一个“廉价协商”，中国政府并无意于奋力帮助欧洲摆脱债务危机的困扰。
Roubini predicted the bubble in U.S. housing prices before the market peaked in 2006. Still, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell to a 12-year low of 677 on March 9, 2009, he said it probably would drop to 600 or lower by the end of that year. Instead, the U.S. equity benchmark gained 65 percent for the rest of 2009.
鲁比尼曾经预测美国的房产泡沫将在2006年达到顶峰。然而，当2009年3月9日，标准普尔500指数下跌至12年来的最低点677，他当时坚持该指数年底将下降到600或更低。相反，美国 2009年余下的股权基准价格却上涨了65%。 又改到2013~2014了？去年看过一篇类似的文章，说是2011~2012,这说话的功夫就后延后了……
不过调整产业结构，完善社会保障体系，控制资本流动性过剩，仍然是这个十年乃至下个十年里严峻的挑战 求科普：为什么中国经济总是在“着陆”中？不管软的硬的，好像一直没着陆过。 一看2013-2014我就不看了，2012还没挺过呢，呵呵！ 蒙对了一次，并不代表每次都能蒙对。 又是一个砖家，，，厉害呀 本帖最后由 lyq999999 于 2011-10-20 04:38 编辑
专家的看法就是不一样!
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