【华尔街时报111017】美国总统竞选的一个绝对输家：中国！
本帖最后由 diver18 于 2011-10-18 17:30 编辑第十八号潜水员说：
有记忆以来，美国总统竞选的一个绝对输家：中国！
当然，之后能不能扳回来 和 怎样 扳回来，那是后话。
One Loser in U.S. Presidential Polling: China
By BOB DAVIS OCTOBER 17, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204774604576633581998961472.html
It's impossible to know the winner of next year's presidential race, but there is already one clear loser: China.
One Republican presidential hopeful, Mitt Romney, has propelled China into the center of the contest by accusing it of "cheating," and by threatening to shut down U.S. markets to Chinese goods unless China lets its currency appreciate significantly. President Barack Obama has attacked Beijing for "gaming the trading system."
The Senate last week overwhelmingly passed legislation to penalize China for its currency policy, through trade sanctions. Unless the House Republican leadership continues to block a vote, the legislation would likely pass the House by a huge margin, as a similar bill did last year.
The debate has become so heated that Republican presidential hopeful Jon Huntsman, a former U.S. ambassador to China, said he backs the Senate bill even though he warns that "slapping penalties" on China could ignite a trade war.
Much of this can be dismissed as election-year posturing. Every president finds that the U.S. has limited options in getting China, the world's second-largest economy and the U.S.'s largest foreign creditor, to adopt market-oriented change. The trick is to get Beijing to see the reform as in its interest, and even then the pace of change is slow.
But political threats, even if they don't become law or policy, have consequences in Beijing and can backfire in ways that Americans may not appreciate. Beijing is in the throes of its own 2012 leadership change, with top politicians jockeying for power. There's no election, but public opinion matters. Being seen as close to the U.S. at a time when Washington threatens to whack Beijing is as much a burden for a Chinese politician as being a pal of China would be for an American candidate campaigning in Cleveland.
Cheng Li, a Brookings Institution China scholar, says the threats from Washington have already hurt a U.S. favorite, Vice Premier Wang Qishan, who is viewed as having an outside shot at becoming Chinese premier, the No. 2 position in China. Mr. Wang has argued that China needs to rely more on domestic consumption rather than exports—precisely the U.S. position.
A backlash against U.S. threats could help Bo Xilai, the nationalist party secretary of Chonqqing, a city that recently shut down 13 Wal-Marts for allegedly selling mislabeled pork. Shutting down a supermarket for such a common infraction is unusual.
He's aiming for a slot on the standing committee of the Politburo. "You're hurting economic policy makers that have strong ties to the U.S," Mr. Li said. "It puts them in an awkward position."
Mr. Romney, who has taken the hardest line on China among presidential candidates, says U.S. pressure is crucial to get China to change its ways. He says he would name China a currency "manipulator" for keeping its currency undervalued, and hobble Chinese imports by imposing compensatory tariffs. The Senate bill has similar provisions and is championed by lawmakers like Democrat Charles Schumer of New York.
No administration since the 1994 Clinton White House has tagged China as a manipulator, out of concern that China would retaliate against U.S. companies there. On Friday, the Treasury Department postponed making a decision on the designation, which it is required by law to make every six months. No White House has ever taken the additional step of imposing tariffs on China because of its currency practices.
Mr. Romney also would bar Chinese firms from bidding on U.S. government procurements until China signed a World Trade Organization accord on fair procurement practices. Even the Alliance for American Manufacturing, a steel industry and labor group, hasn't endorsed that tactic. In a recent Washington Post op-ed article, Mr. Romney said such steps are necessary to get China to play by international rules and "preserve free trade."
"It's brilliant politics even though it's bad economics," said Republican economist Kevin Hassett of the American Enterprise Institute. "It allows him to be a saber-rattling guy who can appeal to tea party types in the primaries while not alienating people who vote in general election." But the downside, Mr. Hassett said, is that the policies "would start a trade war."
Getting the Chinese to boost the pace of their currency appreciation may be beyond the ability of the U.S. alone, which has lost standing internationally since the global recession of 2009. Beijing decided to let its currency float in 2010 before a Toronto summit of the Group of 20 nations, in part to avoid criticism there by a wide swath of nations, not just the U.S.
Washington used another G20 session this past weekend to keep up the pressure and will do the same at the G20 leaders' summit in November. Merely keeping China to stick to its 0.5% monthly pace of appreciation may be a challenge. That's because China worries about losing jobs as its export sector slows.
Making fundamental change is tough for both the U.S. and China. Since at least 2007, Beijing has recognized it needs to remake its economy so it relies less on exports. But it has failed to do much because of opposition from powerful interests, in this case exporters and local governments. Similarly, many in Washington have long recognized Medicare and Social Security costs must be cut but little has been done because of interest groups, in this case the senior lobby and the health-care establishment.
To understand how China views hectoring by U.S. politicians, imagine the following: Would tongue-lashings from Chinese politicians and threats to sell China's dollar holdings unless the U.S. got its fiscal house in order prompt Americans to make changes or to dig in and do the opposite?
美国总统竞选的输家：中国
寂静河流@译言http://article.yeeyan.org/view/222579/225104
于2011-10-17 18:49:29翻译
译者注：美国竞选与中国汇率问题
现在还不能知道明年总统角逐的赢家，但现在已经有了一个明显的输家：中国。
共和党总统候选人米特·罗姆尼已通过指控中国的“欺骗”而将其驱赶至争辩的焦点。他威胁要关闭中国商品的美国市场，除非中国进行显著的货币升值。贝拉克·奥巴马总统也已抨击中国“操纵贸易体系”。
上周的时候，针对中国的货币政策，参议院以压倒性的多数通过了以贸易制裁为手段的对华惩罚立法。除非议院中共和党领导层持续集团投票，否则此立法将有可能以较大的人数比在议院通过，就像去年的一项类似法案的情况一样。
此争议非常激烈，以至于共和党总统候选人、前美国驻华大使Jon Huntsman表示支持此参议院法案。但他警告称此“类似于耳光的对华惩罚”将有可能引起一场贸易战。
但在选举年开始的时候其中很多方面都可能会被忽视。所有总统都发现，对于中国这个世界第二大经济体和美国最大的外国债主，能使其采纳以市场导向而改变的选择手段并不多。即使使用让北京看到这种改革是为了其自身利益的技巧，这种改变的速度也依然非常慢。
但政治威胁，即便是没有立法或称为政策，依然会影响北京的反应并有可能产生美国不太欣赏的效果。北京正处于其2012年领导权变更的阵痛之中，顶层政界要员在争夺权力。尽管不经过选举，但公共舆论依然重要。对中国的政界人士而言，在华盛顿威胁惩罚北京的时候与美国保持近距是一个负担，就如同在克利夫兰州竞选的美国总统候选人称自己是中国的朋友一样。
美国布鲁金斯学会的一位中国学者Cheng Li称华盛顿的威胁已经伤害了一位亲美的副总理王岐山，而他据称有望成为中国第二号人物——总理。王先生主张中国需要更多地依靠国内消费而不是出口——或者准确地说美国的位置。
针对美国威胁的激烈反应则可能会有利于薄熙来，这位重庆市市委书记是一个民族主义者。这个城市最近因据说出售贴错标签的猪肉而停业整顿了13家沃尔玛超市。超市因这种常见的违规行为而被停业，这种情况并不常见。
他旨在获得政治局常务委员会的席位。“你们正在伤害与美国联系密切的经济政策制定者，” Li先生表示，“这会使得他们处于一个很尴尬的位置。”
总统选举人中一直持对华强硬路线的罗姆尼称在使中国改变做法的方面，美国的压力起到决定性作用。他表示他将因中国保持其货币低值而称呼其为货币“操纵者”，并会通过设立补偿性关税来压制中国的对美出口。此参议院法案也有着类似的条款，像纽约的查理斯·舒默这样的民主党成员立法者对此法案表示拥护。
除了1994年克林顿入主的白宫，迄今为止没有其他美国政府给中国贴上操纵者的标签，这出于担心中国可能会针对那里的美国公司采取报复的缘故。周五的时候，美国财政部推迟了法律规定每六个月一次的操纵国指定。没有一届白宫迄今为止曾因中国的货币举措而采取额外的对华关税征收措施
罗姆尼也打算阻止中国企业对美国政府采购项目进行投标，除非中国签署了一项世贸组织关于公平采购措施的协议。即使是美国制造业联盟这个钢铁业和劳动组织也没有赞同此项策略。在最近《华盛顿邮报》的一篇专栏文章中，罗姆尼表示需要这种措施以使得中国遵守国际规则并“保护自由贸易”
“这是很棒的政治方针，但却是糟糕的经济手段，”美国企业研究所的共和党经济学家凯文·哈赛特表示，“这将会使他成为一个富有攻击性的角色，这种角色对初选中的茶党具有吸引力而同时不疏远在普选中的投票者。”但据Hassett的看法，这种政策的不利因素是其“有可能会引起贸易战”。
让中国人加快货币增值的速度的任务可能单凭美国的能力无法完成，在2009年世界性衰退之后美国便失去了国际性立场。北京决定20国集团多伦多峰会之前在2010年让其货币浮动，部分上这是为了避免在会时遭到来自众多国家的指责，而不仅仅是美国。
在过去的周末中，华盛顿利用另一次20国会议的机会来保持这种压力；并且将会在十一月的20国领导人峰会上重复这一举措。仅使中国保持其月0.5%增值速度可能会是一个挑战。因为中国担心当其出口部分放慢时的失业问题。
而进行根本性的改变对于中国和美国来说都很艰难。至少从2007年开始，北京已经意识到需要重新架构其经济以减少对出口的依赖。但它的成效不大，原因即强力的利益集团（这里指的是出口商和地方政府）的反对。与其类似的是，华盛顿的许多人早已认识到必须消减医疗保障和社会保障成本，但成效不大，原因是利益集团（这里指的是那些老牌的的游说议员者和医疗保障机构）的反对
想要知道中国是怎么看待来自美国政界人士的威吓的吗？想象一下：来自中国政界人士的斥责以及除非美国保持良好财政状态否则会卖掉中国的美元储备的威胁会促使美国人做出改变还是态度郑重地反而行之？
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