【外交政策 111014】绝杀熊猫
本帖最后由 lilyma06 于 2011-10-19 17:28 编辑【中文标题】绝杀熊猫
【原文标题】Panda Mugging
【登载媒体】外交政策
【原文作者】MICHAEL A. COHEN
【原文链接】http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/14/china_republican_policy_panda_mugging
2012年总统候选人能利用抨击中国的策略入主白宫吗？
两党合作的精神在一夜间回到了华盛顿！别兴奋得太早，双方并未在就业、赤字和经济方面达成共识，而是对中国的态度。10月11日星期二，美国参议院以63票对35票，支持对刻意压低汇率的国家（中国）实施惩罚性关税。尽管这条议案真正立法的可能性并不大——白宫发言人John Boehne说立法是“危险的”。但是问题关键是，这条得到了一群嘈杂的自由派、中间派和保守派议员共同支持的议案表明，对美国第二大贸易伙伴开火的行为是各个政治党派的共同意愿。
从某种程度上说，议会花了这么长时间才决定让中国成为美国经济不断下滑的替罪羊的确很让人吃惊。在国际经济形势令人不甚满意时寻找一个海外妖魔，毕竟已经不是第一次了。在30年代，这种思路帮助通过了斯姆特－霍利关税法；80年代和90年代早期，日本人明确的投资倾向，比如购买洛克菲勒中心，所引起的经济恐慌，在文化层面和媒体层面产生了新一轮的抨击日本行动。
在星期二的共和党辩论中，大老党领跑者Mitt Romney厚颜无耻地把中国贴上骗子和汇率操纵者的标签。他说：“中国的金融界都在偷笑，他们抢走我们的大笔金钱和就业岗位，抢走了我们的未来。”三天后的《华盛顿邮报》专栏文章中，Romney进一步谴责中国“有预谋地剥削其它经济体，来获得优势地位”，并偷取美国的创新发明。他给出的解决方案是，确定北京的现金操纵者身份，采取一系列针对中国的单方面行动，包括惩罚性措施。
这种对中国的攻击不但在总统选举政治中极为鲜见，而且是闻所未闻的。1992年，比尔•克林顿时不时拿在任总统乔治•布什举例说明他娇纵“北京的屠夫”。（然而在克林顿执政之后，他的态度马上彻底变化。这说明即使最刺耳的外交政策言论，你在听起来的时候也要有所保留。）2010年选举期间，对中国的“抨击”开始变得更加明显，数十位议会位置的竞争者纷纷把中国当作美国经济危机的替罪羊。
例如，Sen. Harry Reid谴责他的大老党对手Sharron Angle，说她支持加税的行为是“外国工人的亲密战友”，把美国人的工作拱手送给中国和印度。和他处于同一战线的是民主党同僚，比如Barbara Boxer，她十分不满Carly Fiorina支持上海胜过圣何塞的行为。俄亥俄州原议员Zack Space抨击其共和党竞选对手，说对方支持与中国的自由贸易是因为这能帮助“提高他们的生活水平”。共和党也采取了激进的行动，Spike Maynard在竞选广告中攻击在职34年的议员Nick Rahall。这个广告中使用了传统的中国风格管弦音乐，背景是红色，隐隐约约浮现出毛主席的形象。
激怒美国人的事情不仅仅是就业岗位的流失，还有中国政府手中数万亿美元的美国外债。实际上，美国金库中8％的财产为中国所有，这些钱的主人都是美国公民和机构，而非美国政府。尽管奥巴马总统不断提醒民众，继续这样的赤字消费行为意味着“向中国欠下更多的钱”，但中国是“美国人的钱庄”这样的理论多少已经变成了陈腔滥调。
两党绝杀熊猫的行动依然在持续，美国民众是否欣赏他们的表演不得而知。据皮尤研究中心最新民意调查的结果显示，当被问到在“对中国采取强硬态度”和“进一步与中国合作”之间二选一时，有53％的选民选择后者，只有40％的选民选择前者。尽管只有5名上议院民主党核心成员投票反对本周的汇率提案，但希望看到与中国关系搞僵的民主党选民只占32％。实际上，皮尤研究中心发现，唯一希望美国对中国采取强硬姿态的是哪些所谓的茶叶党。（译者注：指由种族主义者、极端保守分子和未受教育人士聚集在一起，发起的新型政治运动。）
我们面对的现实是，即使人民币在未来有可能贬值（当然现在还在继续升值），它也无法成为美国经济萎靡不振的主要原因。就像美国进步研究中心的经济学家Adam Hersh在10月7日写道的：“决策者不能假装认为……汇率问题是治疗经济、就业和其它挑战的灵丹妙药。”
而且，像参议院通过议案这种鲁莽的做法在短期内也不大可能改变中国的路线，（《大西洋月刊》的记者James Fallows曾对我说：“中国政治‘臣服’于美国的‘要求’就像美国人臣服中国一样的糟糕。”）即使真的产生了一些效果，那么人民币还需要继续大幅度升值才能达到影响美国就业岗位的程度。
如果说这样的议案能够产生一些影响，那么就是让就业岗位转移到其它劳动力成本更低的国家，而不是回到美国。随着中国劳动力成本的上升，这样的事情已经开始发生了。中国是第三大美国商品的进口国（到目前为止，今年的进口额已经达到660亿美元），贸易战争不但会影响到美国人购买中国商品的价格，还会直接伤害美国的出口商。等着瞧吧，美国的就业岗位会继续流失。
正如加拿大通讯社的Nina Hachigian所指出，汇率并非无关紧要，但是美中关系之间的其它问题，比如美国商品在中国的准入制度和更好的知识产权保护政策，或许具有更大的危害。这才是我们应当重点关注的问题，实际上，奥巴马政府已经开始着力解决这些问题，它毫不犹豫地把中国在这些方面的行为拿到国际贸易组织中寻求裁决。
卡耐基委员会高级职员、亚洲问题长期观察家Devin Stewart直言不讳地说议会的决定是“白痴方案，与正确的前进方面南辕北辙”。他认为，正确的行为应当是刺激本土的创新和修建社会基础工程项目，而不是努力把中国描绘成一个全球恶棍。
这让我想起了一件事，在9/11事件发生之后不久，我与《外交政策》的前任编辑Charles William Maynes交谈。当我说到美国全国上下如此迅速地团结起来对抗基地组织和其它恐怖分子事，他斥责我说：“如果没有这些伊斯兰圣战者，那么敌人就会变成中国人。” 如今，奥萨马•本•拉登静静地躺在阿拉伯海底，或许轮到中国人出场了。
原文：
A bipartisan spirit has momentarily returned to Washington! Before anybody gets too excited, it's not on jobs, the deficit, or the economy -- but rather China. By a 63-35 tally, the U.S. Senate voted on Tuesday, Oct. 11, to support tough legislation slapping tariffs on countries that purposely undervalue their currency (read: China). And though the bill has almost no chance of becoming law -- House Speaker John Boehner has called the legislation "dangerous" -- the fact that it was co-sponsored by a gaggle of liberal, moderate, and conservative senators suggests that this broadside against America's second-largest trading partner has support from across the political spectrum.
In a way, it's surprising that it took this long for Congress to get around to making China a scapegoat for the continued U.S. downturn. After all, finding a foreign bogeyman at a time of domestic economic dissatisfaction is hardly unusual. In the 1930s, it helped spur passage of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs; in the 1980s and early 1990s, economic fears -- and high-profile investments by Japanese businesses, like the purchase of Rockefeller Center -- led to a round of Japan-bashing in popular culture and the media.
In Tuesday's most recent Republican debate, GOP front-runner Mitt Romney was unabashed in labeling China as a cheater and manipulator of its currency. According to Romney, "the Chinese are smiling all the way to the bank, taking our currency and taking our jobs and taking a lot of our future." In a Washington Post op-ed three days later, Romney went even further, accusing China of seeking "advantage through systematic exploitation of other economies" and stealing American innovations. His remedy: classifying Beijing as a currency manipulator and taking a host of unilateral steps against China, including punitive measures.
These sorts of attacks on China, while relatively rare in presidential politics, are not unheard of. In 1992, Bill Clinton regularly took then-President George H.W. Bush to task for his coddling of the "butchers of Beijing" (a policy that was quickly reversed once Clinton took office -- a compelling reminder that even the harshest foreign-policy campaign rhetoric should perhaps be taken with a grain of salt). China "bashing" began to emerge more prominently during the 2010 campaign with dozens of congressional contenders scapegoating China for America's economic troubles.
For example, Sen. Harry Reid accused his GOP rival Sharron Angle of being a "foreign worker's best friend" for supporting tax increases that sent American jobs to China and India. He was joined by Democratic colleagues like Barbara Boxer who went after Carly Fiorina for supporting "Shanghai" over "San Jose." Then-Rep. Zack Space of Ohio criticized his Republican opponent for backing free trade with China because it helped "their standard of living." Republicans got in some jabs as well, including Spike Maynard, whose ads attacking 34-year incumbent Rep. Nick Rahall featured traditional, plucked-string, Chinese-style music, red backgrounds, and shadowy pictures of what appears to be Chairman Mao.
And it isn't just the loss of jobs that provokes American ire -- it's also the holding of trillions of dollars in U.S. debt by the Chinese government. In reality, China owns just around 8 percent of all U.S. Treasurys -- the largest group of owners is actually individual Americans and U.S. institutions. Yet even President Barack Obama has been quick to remind audiences that continued deficit spending means "borrowing more from countries like China." The notion that China is "America's banker" has more or less become a cliché.
But for all the bipartisan panda-mugging going on, it's unclear that the American people are buying it quite yet. According to a recent poll by the Pew Research Center, when given an option of "getting tougher with China" or "building a stronger relationship," voters supported the latter by a 53-40 margin. Even though all but five members of the Senate Democratic caucus voted for this week's currency bill, only 32 percent of Democratic voters want to see a get-tough approach to China. In fact, the only group of Americans that Pew could find who were in favor of a get-tough stance with China were self-described Tea Party members.
The reality is that while the Chinese currency is likely undervalued (though steadily appreciating), it's hardly a predominant cause of America's economic malaise. As Adam Hersh, an economist at the Center for American Progress (CAP), wrote on Oct. 7, "Policymakers should not pretend ... that tackling the exchange rate issue will be a panacea for our economic growth, jobs, and competitiveness challenges."
Moreover, a blunt instrument like the legislation passed in the Senate will be unlikely to shift Chinese behavior in the near term -- (as Atlantic correspondent James Fallows explained it to me, "It is as bad in internal Chinese politics to 'knuckle under' to U.S. 'demands' as vice versa") -- and even if it did, it would take a massive appreciation in the yuan to have any real significant impact on American jobs.
If anything, such a course of action would likely lead jobs to trickle to other low-wage countries rather than back to the United States -- a phenomenon that is already taking place as labor costs in China are on the rise. Given that China is the third-largest importer of American goods ($66 billion so far this year), a potential trade war would not only affect what Americans pay for Chinese products, but it could also directly harm U.S. exporters and -- wait for it -- cost American jobs.
As CAP's Nina Hachigian points out, it's not that currency valuation is unimportant. But other challenges in the U.S.-China relationship, like improved market access for U.S. products and better intellectual-property protections, are probably more harmful. That's where the focus should be -- and to some extent it has been with the Obama administration, which has not been shy in taking China to the World Trade Organization on exactly these points.
According to Devin Stewart, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Council and longtime Asia watcher, Congress is taking what he calls quite bluntly "a boneheaded approach. It is the exact opposite direction we should be going in." The right direction, he says, would be to focus on spurring innovation at home and building social infrastructure rather than making China into a global bad guy.
It reminds me of a conversation I had with one of Foreign Policy's former editors, Charles William Maynes, not longer after the 9/11 attacks. When I noted how quickly America had united against al Qaeda and the broader terrorist bogeyman, he upbraided me: "If it wasn't the jihadists, it would have been the Chinese." With Osama bin Laden somewhere at the bottom of the Arabian Sea, maybe it's China's turn.
看来，西方人也不全是疯子！ 满仓的图片每次都是做的那么好{:soso_e179:} 水印好难看。。。。。。 继续减持美元，并终止波音订单（反正他的787订单也不交货，已经违约）。 真够可怜的。
美国人竟然只能任凭自己被一群只认得选票和金钱的白痴+疯子们“绑架”，而自己却完全束手无策。貌似眼下他们所能做的唯一努力就是打扮成嬉皮士的模样去占领这里、占领那里，持续上演一场遥遥无期也毫无胜算跟期望可言的“游园会”了。 一停二看三通过，先看了再做结论 最后一段，意料之外情理之中 占领华尔街的美国人都知道经济危机是由富人贪婪引起的，政治小丑们再想以嫁祸中国的手法上位恐怕不容昜！ 拉登果然是我们的朋友 美国什么东西都舍不得卖，只会卖弄口舌。 楼上的朋友，你上传的图片内容现在只能哄哄小朋友了。:D 楼上的朋友，你上传的图片内容现在只能哄哄小朋友了。:D 顺利前进 发表于 2011-10-19 19:55 static/image/common/back.gif
这个黑人被民主的美国干掉{:12_528:} 顺利前进 发表于 2011-10-19 21:09 static/image/common/back.gif
真理是伟大的，如果让她自行其道的话，必然会盛行于世。真理是谬误的强劲克星，她无所畏惧，所向无敌，惟 ...
你机器吗说来说去救这段话，真理就是独裁才是王道 和这种机器人说个啥.只会复制粘贴别人的话.一点自己的思想都没有. 如今，奥萨马•本•拉登静静地躺在阿拉伯海底，或许轮到中国人出场了。
让占领华尔街运动来得更猛烈些吧，;P 顺利前进 发表于 2011-10-19 19:56 static/image/common/back.gif
拒绝承认平等，拒绝民主大选，中华民族永远停留在缺德社会
台湾人也是中国人，原来和中国大陆人一样丑陋，
...
这位去美国吧，不过，无论如何你也是那99% 中国问题也就是个吸引眼球的议题而已，真正要解决的还是巨额债务，保障就业，促进经济发展这种根本性问题，这些解决不好，就算上去了也得很快下来。
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